Bitcoin: The Beginning of the End — Is $85K a Trap? | Sunday Alpha

追加: 2026-05-16

[00:00:00]Hello guys, welcome to a train parro.

[00:00:02]The most recurrent question, the most common question these days that I'm getting pretty much everywhere is are we done with this uptrend? Since we started from the bottom of this double bottom in here from 65, it's been non-stop week after week upside and more upside. And we are now reaching a level where we are visiting a very specific Fibonacci level that in the past price action specifically in the past bull cycle we were constantly constantly having the same outcome. And in this video we're going to break it down and we're going to understand all of that. Of course you're watching the weekend alpha from the trading parrot. This is a special episode that happens once per weekend.

[00:00:47]It is a long video, but it's because it's absolutely worth talking about every single point in this video. So, make sure that you stop the video right now, go and find a cave where no one can see you. It doesn't matter if the cave stinks. The point is that no one should bother you for the rest of this video.

[00:01:11]We're talking about money. This is worth millions. This is alpha. You are never going to find better time spent in any other video across all YouTube. Cancel Netflix. Get a divorce if you need to. I mean, give away your children. Do whatever you have to. And of course, go grab a beer. I'm going to give you a sneak peek into the top alpha that we're going to be looking in today. There's this one Fibonacci level I'm talking about which we definitely need to cover and we have until Sunday evening. This is about less than 24 hours away from confirming. We had the SOPR sell signal which definitely we need to talk about what it means. What are the implications for the market? We have a MACD bare cross that is being literally defined in the next couple of hours. And definitely we need to look at the pile of bearish signals on my right hand side and the one that has been growing the whole week with bullish signals. We need to put them in a competition and decide where are we currently standing based on data and based on statistics not based on entertainment crap that you get from those million follower YouTube channels that you insist to watch. fear and greed index playbook status. Definitely, we need to pay a stop right there and see where we are, how we are progressing in the playbook and sneak peek, spoiler alert, we are checking every box. So, if you're looking the other way around, dude, you need a slap in the pace in the pace in the face. We have also spent a specific number of days above the short-term holder realized price and I'm telling you a couple of more days and I'll tell you later in the video general markets largest top pools almost all have been taken. We're going to look into the S&P and the NASDAQ. Yeah, why are we looking into general markets? Are you crazy? Why are you not looking into the general markets? Let's spend at least five minutes looking at that as well. And since everybody now is talking about liquidity pools out there in crypto, in YouTube, it became almost like the best way to your audience because people really don't know how to interpret it properly. So, in this channel, we're going to cut all that crap and everything is start is going to start to make a lot more sense.

[00:03:48]Let's spend a little bit of time in the order book. It's a weekend. There's less volume of course but we can start reading between lines understand what are the probabilities that we put a CME gap and all of that is going to be covered as well absolutely we will talk about open interest delta everything wells purple wells purple wells everything where is the buying wall where is the selling wall what's going on between spot and futures oh my god there is so much tricky bastards out there taking any piece of information and turning it against you because their interpretations are pretty much 99% of the time concluding the opposite that they should be saying to their millions of followers. Stop. Stop. Guys, if you like this type of content, make sure that you're subscribed to the channel.

[00:04:40]Hit the notification bell to get notified every time I put out one of these videos, including on a weekend.

[00:04:46]And yeah, we're going to do a special this weekend. It's a long video. is packed with alpha. Every single alpha by itself is worth a thousand likes. But we're going to put the bar slightly lower. 700 likes is all I am asking tonight on a Saturday night. I should be literally grabbing my pint watching an episode of Game of Thrones and scratching the crystal ones. But instead, I am here with you because the education passion is just too much to contain. I'll tell you what, with 700 likes, I'm going to give two, not just one, two, 12 months elite subscriptions.

[00:05:26]So, you better get at work right now.

[00:05:28]Hit the like, write down your comment down below. And after we get to those 700 likes, I'm also going to give away a full week 50% discount on Patreon. So, that goes to everybody. All right, we have a deal. Let's go and let's start straight away with CME because this is really important. We started Friday. We close Friday on CME with a bullish pattern in here. So, I've been having a bullish bias for shortterm on price action from here. I mentioned that yesterday in the live stream. That live stream that I put live on Friday was meant to be members only. But halfway through Friday, I realized I didn't have time to put a proper video. So, I put it live for everybody. Why? Because I love my audience and I wanted everybody to stay informed on a Friday. If you caught the video later than the Friday, that's the reason why you ended up watching premium content for free. We got this bullish pattern in here and it's got a target pretty much into 81 to 82,000 around here. And I say in that video that we were breaking down from a hidden shoulder. I cut the moment when we were at the right shoulder and I share it with my members in case they were interested in a scalp. They are addicted to scalping. If you join my Discord server, you're going to see that all the full day people sharing their scalps and using the data to do their own thing, which is what I love. I hate people just copy me. I love when people take part of my data or my approach or my risk management and they incorporate it in their own trading style. That is the ultimate goal of this channel. It's not really to know where the price is going.

[00:07:19]Don't get confused. It's never been the case. So that gave the technical target to the downside and then we produce a symmetrical but inverse pattern. an inverse head and shoulder now pointing up and that was the opportunity to go and chase the fair value gap that we form on the way down. Right? We have here a daily and a 4 hour right there.

[00:07:40]We have complete that now and this tells me one thing and it's very critical. We go slightly higher. We break the neckline of the head and shoulder that is here located roughly at $81,000.

[00:07:55]And I'm going to start thinking that this bloody bastard wants to go for a higher high. So the questions immediately that I will ask myself is what do we have in the upside? What's left? That's a question that everybody should be wondering theirelves. It's not about oh yeah we just fake out of the upside therefore now the longs are trapped and we're going to go all the way to 71. Yeah that's a good setup.

[00:08:24]Bitcoin does that a lot indeed. We did it in here and we did it in here as well. It could happen again. But wait a minute. This is a datadriven channel.

[00:08:34]What's going on in here? Is it attractive or not? If you're not wondering that, you are still not in the datadriven campaign and you have to. So, another reason to watch out 81 is because Yeah, exactly. You just enter this range from a slap in the face and ideally you don't want to put a low from here. And if you do, use the point of control as last level of contention for another spring into the upside. If we go any further into here, particularly you lose 74 pretty much is for granted that the 71 level at some point is going to be tested. If we go higher in here, notice that the close of the price is 80,75 on Binance. So, keep that price in mind because that's the price where we close on CME. And remember that on the 29th of May, CME is very likely going to transition. Indeed, they made it public and official. They're going to transition on trading Bitcoin 247 and I believe Ethereum as well. That means that say goodbye to producing new CME gaps. Now the old CME, the ones for example that we have in here up until 84,000. I believe that this gap that is roughly $800 left over from the 4K CME gap, that $800 is still going to be relevant because that's liquidity that got never filled on the way down on CME and also on other assets that track Bitcoin that also produce imbalances over the weekend. Now ask me, is the alpha going away with CME now trading 24/7?

[00:10:24]Yes and no. Yes. Why? It's going away because CME is not going to contribute to the liquidity that we put on weekends and the formation of gaps of imbalances of things. For example, you get an asset listed on the New York exchange that does not trade over the weekend but tracks Bitcoin that creates still imbalances just like CME. Okay. So all we have now is one out of a hundred contributing over the weekend that is going away. It was a significant one, right? It was convenient for finding the gaps in the chart, but the rest of the assets that track Bitcoin that do not trade over the weekend are still there.

[00:11:08]So it's a yes and a no. Where else do we have CM gaps? We have one at 70, one at 67. The 800 left over into $84,000.

[00:11:18]And then we have one sneaky bastard in here is a hair, but it's still a gap.

[00:11:24]It's at 92.9 and one at 97.7, but they are hairs, right? They're very, very ridiculously small. And for example, this one at 97, you can barely see it. You can only see it if you use the one hour time frame on CME BTC1 exclamation mark if you want to check it by yourself. Let's go and look into the IA on interest. And remember in the video there is timestamps and you can even interact with Gemini. It's so cute. You can even talk to my video and ask things. Did trading part say this?

[00:12:00]Did it say this other thing? It works like a charm. I love it because I don't have to be watching anything else. I just literally interact with AI these days. And yeah, you can see in here we have on the aggregated open interest across all the exchanges which is a leading indicator for daddy parrot one two pushes but against previous resistance. So when we meet with $98,000 open interest never cross the line above the previous support of the open interest. But this time we managed to do that halfway through this week. And that is a huge milestone because if we continue treating the aggregated open interest as a leading indicator, as a forecast, it's basically telling us in our face that price of Bitcoin can also mimic what the open interest has already done. That's the way we use the open interest. We are sneaky bastards. We don't only use the data, we cheat with the data because we have pattern recognitions. The level is up here, right? And if you join my Discord server or my Patreon community, you're going to see la creme de la creme of people that identify patterns. They are all there in the Discord server. It's overwhelming at the same time addictive. So, this one got a rejection. You could argue, yeah, it went inside, but it got rejected. So, now we need to start reading between lines and observe the structure of the open interest in here. healthy, non-healthy. I think it's healthy. It's still higher highs, higher lows. This low in here is slightly below the previous high, but as you probably know as a technician, that is not big of a deal. You can definitely recover from that and still have additional upside.

[00:13:46]We are far away from what we did in the previous bare flag which where we lost the low then we com came back and we tested as resistance and then we started to puke in here. We don't have that yet.

[00:14:00]Okay. So if you're convinced that we must fall right now that is for granted you are wrong. We can still puke. Sure we can puke but this data point does not show you that as a forecast yet. Are we clear? Let's go with the next one. The last two, three days of the week, I was shifting up and up and up this channel which I borrow from the previous bull flags because that is kind of the slope that we are currently doing. And if you can see in here, if I connect it with the high, we're getting slightly more extended in here. And indeed we are starting to trade around slightly above that neckline of the head and shoulder that we spot for the way down. Now this one in here is pushing to the upside and trying to get here back into 82,000. So careful because this is happening on the weekend and that could produce there you go a CME gap to the downside.

[00:15:06]So let's imagine that over the weekend we go all the way like this. That's going to create a CME gap that starts from 80,000 into whatever it stops or starts on Monday. And we have already started a period a different regime in terms of CME gaps over the weekend which consists in now if we form a bearish one like for example after this high we form one there and we went up into a double top and we came back straight to close it which is something completely different to what we have been doing before we create one we don't take it we create one we don't take it we create a bullish one and we take it straight straight away. Of course, it was extremely bullish this area after this breakdown, the retail trap. Yeah, that's where you were watching that video. And if you took that short, that is your problem, my friend. I did not tell you to short there. I told you we are going higher and we did go high in here and we also have a high. So, I have a bias towards potentially repeating that modus operandis going up and then closing the gap. Is it for granted? No. But if we go up, my first finger in the air will be we probably close it at some point during the week. And what if we go lower? Well, so far we are not going lower. As you can see, the price action is already going over $81,000.

[00:16:35]But let's say we get a rejection at the neckline and we come back down into 78 or something like that. That's going to leave a bullish CME gap. Is it going to have bullish resolution? I don't know because so far when we produce a bullish FM gap the current regime is to close it straight away and then put a new high.

[00:16:57]So so far if we repeat if we stay in this regime for CME gaps and we put a bearish one or a bullish one I meant we can close it and potentially still go higher. All right, I hope that was clear. Let's go with the 4our. We're going to go into the daily. We need to look into the SOPR, the fear and greed index, the monthly. So much is going on and so much is extremely important to understand where we are. You can definitely pause this video if your wife is desperately hitting the door of the toilet because they want to use the toilet and you need to stop watching at some point and pretending that you're taking a You're really watching top-notch DA just with a sexy accent that no one understand why you decide to watch this channel. Only you for our very interesting things are going on in here. So this guys, this is a bare flag and pretty much everybody's talking about this breaking down. It's got a chance of breaking down, but I remain cautious about this number three liquid in here. Uh, I've seen all the way up things that look bearish constantly turning into bear trap. I am still in a short. My average is now 76.5, but I'm not going to scale up unless we go substantially higher. We'll talk more about shifting into a bull market later and we'll talk about the general markets, which is currently the elephant in the room for Bitcoin shorts. And on the 4 hour we broke down. So far guys, that's all we have. We have a 4hour breakdown confirm channel down everything. But on the daily we have pretty much nothing. We have like a 10% damage so far. And we do need to cover what's the damage. On the weekly there's no damage. On the daily there is less than 5% damage. And on the 4 hour we could say there is a 50/50 damage. At the moment you can see that this broke down. Yeah, this is a channel. Yeah, this is a bare flag. Yeah, this could break down and continue the channel.

[00:19:06]Yeah, sure. But it could be just an ABCD and then we resume to the upside because there's a lot of attention to the upside. How can we do that? So, either we go straight up. Sure, I already covered that. Or we do what all the other channels are saying, which is let's go down into $78,000. There's tons of liquidation levels below this order block. is a bullish order. The block is the point of control and bulls should or must in other words start defending this area in here because above the point of control is bullish, below point of control is bearish for the 4hour time frame at least. Right? What does it mean being below the point of control of the 4 hour? Well, we are risking to spread the bearishness into one more time frame which is the daily. The daily has no damage, but if we go below this 78, we start infecting. That's a word that's becoming really popular in the news these days. So, I better watch out. And as we speak, we got to 81,000. I just saw it. Speaking of the daily, let's look into that potential spread of bearishness into the daily. How could it play out? Let's look at the MACD that is undoing the bearish cross that we were seeing earlier today. I'm going to give you a little bit of happiness in here. I'm going to show you this one that is called the MACD forecast. I made a new version of the MACD that allows me to put the price. And if we close today, Saturday at $79,000, we get a bare cross. That will be fantastic. Why?

[00:20:45]Because the at $98,000 we started puking from precisely the MACD bearish cross above the zero line.

[00:20:54]We already had one in here, but if fake retail, remember I told you do not short that bare cross. Do not short that breakdown because we still have some upside. Yeah, that was the one that put then right after a bull cross. But at 79 tonight, Saturday, we could put another bare cross which puts us back into this situation. Well, as you know, we are trading at 81 and we are 727.

[00:21:23]UK time. So, we just have not many hours, like five hours at the time I'm recording to decide if we get a bare cross on Saturday.

[00:21:33]Volatility is extremely elevated and way more than the volatility that we saw at 98,000 or the volatility that we saw in the all-time high. Yeah, we are with higher volatility to the upside this point in time according to the cross V ratio. Crazy. And if you haven't been watching the videos during the week, I don't blame you. You have tons of things to do apart from becoming rich. But this descending line in here has been broken once and we broke it right here. But since we came back down, it gave the spell of doom. It basically say this is a liquidity hunt. But I said not so fast. Okay. So I have the experience to see patterns and say yeah but not yet.

[00:22:23]Why is that? Because if I see this being a liquidity hunt I ex as I explained even before it happened. I say if we go out in here watch out with coming back down and ideally we want the full the full flash to the downside. We want to lose 59. We want to break the backbone of the stupid bull flag. The stupid bull flag has a backbone inside, right? And we are fighting. We are shorts. We want to get all the way to here and want to squash it down into 40k. Okay, that's kind of the feeling. That's kind of the vibe in my trading room. We had the ABCD. We had all the signals and we had consume a good chunk of liquidity, but there's still liquidity, right? and and the bulls are going to do a heroic effort right now to also exit from here because you had the liquidity hunting here but we managed to hold the level in the line. I told you that if we don't break 59 if we don't break 60 there is no celebration for the shorts yet particularly we had this green line of resistance there that we came just to retest. So this to me looked looked perfectly yesterday on Friday as there is another attempt incoming. Is it going to succeed or fail? I don't know. But I will tell you what it needs to do to succeed. Where is the line in the sand?

[00:23:51]Give it to me. The same way I gave you the 59. And that 59 was tested right here at 79441 because it was a moving target. The day I released that number, it was less, but it moved up. We test that successfully and we resume to the upside. So, watch out with another situation like this where we actually break out and put a new high. Just watch out. It's not a forecast. It's on the table. It's doable. Market maker can flip a coin and decide yes or no. Maybe yes. Let's do it. What needs the market maker to do now to convince me that we are going way higher? It needs to break 6609 on the RSI and is to put a close above this level, ideally above the 6912 to put a new high in here. So that means that the momentum literally has not taken a single slap in the face that this was not a liquidity hunt. It was just a retest against the green breakout. So where are those levels? We have first the 6609 and then we have the 69 which is very nice. The 66 is telling us just give me one thing. Give me one thing. Give me something to shake 81480.

[00:25:16]We close above that level. one daily close above 81500 and we literally show the middle finger again to anyone taking a massive short in here. They're going to definitely get liquidated. If you put a close above 82658 and that means that the momentum is just incredibly high that it literally gives a crap about being in a bare flag and it really wants to start testing anywhere between 82 and yeah 93. Notice I say anywhere between. Okay, because all right, let's go back to the RSI. This RSI is addictive. Look, if you break out from here, you can have a whole moving to 82. But that is the most bullish target. Anywhere in between, I have more chances to get anywhere in here rather than completing into 82. Why is that?

[00:26:17]Because this descending line from 1 2 3 4 5 from 2023 into now 82 is very elevated for a daily RSI in a bare market. If we are not in a bare market sure but if we are in a bare market getting into RSI 82 on a daily is a lot.

[00:26:37]It has never happened on a weekly in a bare market. Never ever but daily. Yeah.

[00:26:43]And in the previous equivalent line in the previous bare market, reaching that line means just getting into 62 which was nothing. But since this cycle is so shallow, it's not very pronounced to the upside. It's not like parabolic. It's just cooling down to the upside and to the downside is also kind of relaxed.

[00:27:03]It's kind of a like a relaxed cycle with institutions. And that made this slope very flat. And that also means that now if we break out from here to test the global resistance we need to get into 82 instead of 62. And in my opinion that is a little bit too far away. So anywhere into where we are in the price into 93 is where I will put my base case scenario. Now notice if we break out from 82 there's no questions asked. We are then in a bull market still. That will be a slap in the face of course for me but everything in this channel has to be said otherwise I don't deserve the name of parrot right a parrot says everything that is thinking and if you think about it every single other channel they're just liars all right we talk about the point of control this week and if you missed the video where I talk about the point of control you literally missed the whole week okay this particular alpha is worth billions on the weekly time frame we have done during this week a lot of progress. We battle with this little cute cute cute week to the downside and currently we are trading slightly above the low right and that to me means strength. We got four green candles, one that got bought up, I call it bullish. This one is also bullish. We ended Friday trading at 79 and testing that level. That was giving me so far a bearish conclusion for the week. But now that we're pushing even higher, we have just an argument for continuation.

[00:28:40]We were about to put an RSI 70 this week and that was going to be a reason for me to open champagne, but we got the opposite. We got shy as we approach the RSI 70. And that means that it's been now more than 110 days of no RSI 70. Why do I care about RSI 70? Well, we got rejected at an RSI 70 or above 70 at 126 and we pierce RSI 70 at 98. So, this is taking a lot longer is too extended in time for a bare flag in a bare market.

[00:29:18]We do not spend so long in a bare flag and it's another argument to expect this to have as soon as possible a resolution to stay in a bare market. But notice that we do it also in a sneaky way, right? Because we were at at RSI 70 intra candle in here. But we resolve below 70 which is also with my instincts. I have forensic instinct in terms of trading because I always think about algos. Algos react to RSI 30 and 70. And if you don't believe me, I mean, who else can tell you? I work on trading bots for two years. I have a trading bot channel before having a trading channel.

[00:30:04]So, I know what I'm talking about.

[00:30:06]There's an endless list of people monitoring a daily RSI 70 close. And they got trapped here and there and they could get trapped again here in a bare market. To the upside, motivation. We have this chunky full massive daily and 4hourly overlapping in here. As you can see, fair value gap. It starts from 847 into 88,900. And at 8,900, we have a massive chunk of open interest. This one is $1.74 billion. It's been there for a while, but now it's got a contender and that's fantastic. Wait a second. I've been seeing this 174 and we've been saying I don't think we're going to get that high to be fully honest. You can watch my videos. I say no. 89 is just too far away. But since now we are very close, we have that 89. We need to discuss the elephant in the room. 174.

[00:31:04]What else is new? Look down. Look down below the price. Do you see it in here?

[00:31:08]H 168. What a sexy open interest we have under the price.

[00:31:16]Me one open interest.

[00:31:19]168 plus 800 million makes for a lot of open interest right underneath our underwear. The second one is at 74. And there's nothing I wish more than we actually go straight for that instead of spending time making me waste time going into 174. But now this is a contender, right? Is around the same proportion.

[00:31:42]Hopefully we don't just put a bare flag into 77 and that's it. Hopefully we go into the actual 74 because with a average of 765 going into 74 of course 2K below and if we break down those and we turn them into resistance even better because then daddy can say I told you so for the next two months. Let's look at fire charts and let's see what's going on at the moment in terms of buying and selling wells and purple wells and all of that. We had resistance of 32 million at 81,000 but that got rack pulled as we approach it. You can see it in there on the six months. Let's have a look at what the purple wells are doing.

[00:32:24]Actually on the one month I prefer and they're pushing higher. So they are trading this reversal to the upside.

[00:32:32]Retail has started a little bit more involved. We saw them being at the 0 percentile which means that they've been shorting and shorting. Now they are 20%.

[00:32:43]They're at the 20 percentile around here and the red is at the 40 percentile longing which is good news because actually what we want is to flip into greed get the RSI 70. If we really want a bare flag breaking down the trick is to get everybody into the grid and then in a snap of a finger rack pull it. But you can see that purples keep pushing higher but retail does not get fully involved. We do not have at the moment a climate of retail longing more than wells. You can see in here at $98,000 that retail the orange line was actually above the po purple line whereas in this area in here you see the cross the purple is starting to trade everything whereas the orange is shorting everything. And that is really annoying because you know the story of my short I started shorting at 70,000 but once I started seeing or at 70 something I don't remember the level my my members do know because they had the articles and the whole proof or you can watch my videos to see it because my brain is not working now but I started like with a 5% or a 3% exposures at some point and I say nope I'm not adding anymore even though we were here at the top of the bare flag. I said, "Nope, I'm not adding anything here. This is not going to puke. It's going to go higher." So, I reserve the additions of liquidity into my short. My scale up of the position happened only at 80,000 and at 81.5, which definitely definitely helped pushing that average into 76.5, which makes me feel a lot more relaxed. Right now, volume still very low. We go high, low, we go down, low. That tells me that there's something off about the liquidity at number two. Possibly the calculations, the algorithmic approach that they used to determine where could the liquidity be maybe been this time terribly off because we hit number two and it was supposed to be the biggest liquidity pool across one, two, three, four, and five and volume did not come in. So there was no increase in here that gave us that pinch of the percentile. That is what happened around there for the rejection. We still don't have it. Unfortunately, we are in a purging month and that is a massive event. It means that price has crossed above the new CPR level pivots of May and it did not touch them. Those are located at 7588 and at 72,555.

[00:35:28]That definitely is a bearish data point.

[00:35:31]We already test the first resistance. So that is promising. In June, we should be able to do the same unless within May we go to the first level of support which is currently located at 68249.

[00:35:46]If we do not go to that level, June is calling for another test of the CPR level first resistance of the May month of May, month of June. So let's look where that is in June. I'm going to bring in the level for June. That is 83737.

[00:36:04]So watch out with that level because it's moving during the month. And yeah, we can see into the future because I have set up CPR for the current month and CPR for the next month. So I can always always stay in line with what's coming. CPR is a magnificent leading indicator if you haven't noticed. Right, let's go to S OPR because there's been some distribution and I want to quantify it. I want to see what's going on. We've been looking for distribution and here we are. We have a sell signal right there at 81800. So that means that the amount of distribution, notice this is an oscillator version of the SOPR because it allows me to compare pairs with pairs and apples with apples at different times instead of just seeing something that evolves with the lifetime of Bitcoin. Basically, I need it normalized and we reached this level around this high and we corrected 14%.

[00:37:01]So when we pinched that level, we did not get a signal but definitely there was some distribution on the way down in here that helped making an ABC down into 65. Now we are getting one there and this SOPR is slightly higher than before. This is a 102 whereas this was a 101. There can be a lot more of course but relative to this regime we are starting to increase relative to previous upside the amount of distribution in profit. Remember that the SOPR closes in positive when the distribution is closed in profit and it closes in the negative when the distribution is at a loss. Right now they are not closing at a loss they are closing in profits. So that means that people that bought in here or somewhere in here, they are distributing as we approach $82,000. That can be a lot more. This does not need to stop the price. Sometimes it just shakes the price or you go sideways or in the megaphone pattern definitely that level of distribution which is 113. Okay, we're not talking about one or two, but this was at 113 and it definitely cost 9 months of sideways. So, it's not just about being higher than the highest level in a regime, but also seeing what sort of distributions end up doing the trick of pushing the price down. We've been in a channel in the price in here.

[00:38:31]As you can see, that channel was very thin, very thin. A recipe for a breakdown, but we broke down and I say, "No, we are not going down yet. We're going to go slightly higher." So now we need to make the channel like this and we are in a slightly better channel but still to the upside. We have the middle line now as a resistance. If we go another wave up we can meet with 83. But of course also we can use this line to track a breakdown three months in green and that is the result of Bitcoin being coupled in a way with general markets.

[00:39:09]And I say in a way because yeah general markets are trading around here right.

[00:39:14]So there's upside and upside. This is the one that will disappoint any girl out there. Like teeny weeny weeny weeny little dick shman. You know the song, right? I mean that shows that I'm pretty old. Yeah, I am. I'm almost 50 years old. But that is what we were singing in our parties. And there were no politicians shouting that that was too bad. It was great time to be alive. But yeah, let's have a look at general markets and let's compare and let's see how this stands next to general markets.

[00:39:49]General markets had done a lot and we were looking at the liquidity. We crossed the biggest liquidity level on the S&P to the upside and we carry on.

[00:39:59]Now we are approaching 700 7,500 which is where we have this yellow mark in there. After that it comes level of liquidity number three. There's also a number four forming in here at 8,800, but we are also extremely elevated in terms of momentum and other indicators.

[00:40:20]I'm also going to show you the NASDAQ, which rally a lot more than the S&P relative to the highs. And the liquidity definitely explains why because the S&P liquidity was located around here and then declining. But the NASDAQ had a huge massive level of liquidity shorting levels in there and thanks to all the earnings and the semiconductor bubble that is still on is nonstop literally vertical. Now for as long as we have that we can see that that's having an effect on the price of Bitcoin. Now I want you to understand something. S&P going up, Bitcoin going up, that story of them being coupled is a yes and no.

[00:41:06]Sometimes it's coupled very strongly correlated and sometimes it's just not.

[00:41:11]For example, in here you had this all-time high where the S&P carry on going higher and higher and higher and we enter still in a bare market. Some other times when the S&P corrects then we are due for our bare market and we just follow and mimic the S&P. But as you can see, one cycle can still enter in a bare market with the S&P going higher. That's just a counter example to show you that the rule is not a golden rule necessarily. So do not think necessarily because this goes up then Bitcoin has to put an alltime high because everybody says that but no one really tells you the exception to the rule. And how can you really make a decision if they just tell you this if up then up? No, it's not like that. Look back. All right, here we're going to get serious. I'm going to enter in the area of the strong alpha. You probably don't want to miss this one. And I'm going to take you for a journey in the price action in the previous bare market. And we're going to use this one just because it's got bare flags. In our current setup, we have bare flags. In 2017, we did not have technically bare flags because these are overlapping in the same kind of trading range. putting lower highs but same lows. This is kind of a triangle, right? It's a very odd shape but that is what we were doing in that bare market. It was kind of holding this level right there. You can see it and then it puke. Whereas this cycle has bare flags that go for a new trading range. Bare flag new trading range. And that's why it's very useful and we can use it particularly is very handy as well because we have a double top with a slightly higher high in here but not higher high on the RSI and we can use this low into the alltime high into the low the first depression and look at where we get rejected in here that is the 0382.

[00:43:13]Okay. And we can do this exercise of the trend extension of Fibonacci levels across all the bare market with the exception of things that are too small to be considered a bare flag. But even here, for example, with this flag applied to this move up and then the move down. You can also see that the 0382 again rejects. Unfortunately, this is the exception because I say this is too small of that trading to do the exercise. It creates a 0382 that is too flat. Therefore, we're going to skip that one. I am making you aware so you understand that I'm not cheating in the narrative because what's the point of doing that? But this moving here is considerable is significant enough to again bring in the 0 A2 that rejects once. But after that first rejection, it crosses that level with the green massive gold candle. That is how it looks. Starting a bull market. Massive volume, massive breakout of the 0382 across all the bare markets. 0382 were being the point of rejection. So if I do the same exercise taking this high and this high in here and then the low at 80,500 we can see that we were approaching the 0382 which was going to be 100,500 and we did not reach that level. Instead of that we got a rejection. So I'm going to push this one lower and say where where are we going to see that rejection and if when we were trading below 80k that was the point of rejection right now we are above the 0382. So we have one bare flag that did not reach it and now we have a bare flag that is above that level. So by Sunday, ideally if we want to use the narrative of bare flags breaking down at 0382, we have to close Sunday below 80,000 period. That is the opportunity that you have this Sunday to end this. If we close Sunday above 80,000, above 79968.99, then we need to be dealing with the next targets of 86 and the 92400 which we already covered. It comes from the RSI.

[00:45:38]Everything points to the same levels.

[00:45:41]Fear and greed index is it still following the playbook? Let's do a status update. We pinch the level. We say that that's absolutely accepted in every cycle within the second bubble.

[00:45:54]The second bubble in here can exit from the top of the range. Fine. Where are we now? We are below again. We are still in a bullish structure. This can break out in here. We know that if we cross 62 fear and greed index to the upside, we're going to be stepping into bull market territory. We do not take previous higher highs on a descending trend line of fear and greed index during a bare market. That is the rule of gold in the past two cycles at least.

[00:46:25]What do we do after that? If we respect the 62, we can go slightly higher to 55.

[00:46:30]That's still bare market. We cross 62.

[00:46:33]We put a 63 and we're like, "Hey, wait a minute. This smells stinks bull market."

[00:46:39]If we now get rejected in here, we should be looking for a foundation in here. A period where we spend a lot of time defending a level that can be 19 in the previous cycle or it can be this level of 17 two cycles ago. But before we can form a base in here, price must come down. That's part of the playbook.

[00:47:04]If you don't come down, you really cannot form that foundation. There has to be some fear. Psychologically speaking, we cannot just transition straight away and build a pillar for a bull market. Next elephant in the room is the short-term holder realized price.

[00:47:21]Let's count together. 1 2 3 4 fifth day above the short-term holder realized price. That's currently trading at $78992.

[00:47:33]So pretty much $79,000.

[00:47:36]and being five days above that. How rare is this on a bare market? Is it already a sign that we have conquered the short-term holder realized price and we are heading into a bull market? Let's have a look. Previous bare market, we spent max 5 days, but not in a row. It was 1 2 3 4 plus one two like four six days with a pause in between. You could argue that's it. In 2017 18 you can get up to five six days above in this area in here. So let's call it max one full week above the short-term holder realized price that has psychological explanation. Basically you are given enough time to retail after having been in a period of substantial pain. Say five months in red, everybody being dumped. Suddenly in average you have almost a week to dump in a small profit, break even or small loss. If you don't do damage to the price action after a week of distributing and price is still above that level, then price can continue higher. That is what this chart tells me and screams all across the history of Bitcoin. Older cycles. Yeah, you can spend a lot of time in here above the short-term holder realized price. Fair enough. But it's a different regime. We have way different levels of volatility, different actors, no institutions. We need to look into a more mature kind of price action to really make an informed decision. If we start expecting to be so long in here, we are doing the wrong reading because that is extremely rare given the recent relationship between price action and short-term holder realized price. All right, we have to now spend some time looking at the order book and see the liquidation pools and all of those things that are extremely important to understand if the technicals are in line with what we see in the data as well.

[00:49:51]And the first data point is the short-term liquidity. We had two liquidations of short-term that were incremental. We went from this level of red into this level of red when we went above $80,000. Definitely people were shorting like crazy $80,000. But if you look at the short-term liquidity in here is among the three, the liquidations at 76 77 the ones above 80 and the ones that just we put between 83 and 85. The shortterm one is small. Okay, hold on the horses. The conclusion is not we are going down. Okay, wait. Because we do have access to longerterm liquidity by a trading different. We see that this number three is definitely still substantial. Substantial against what?

[00:50:42]Against what we have to the downside, right? Look at the downside in here. We definitely have lots of levels of short-term liquidity that have not been taken. Every price action that you see in here does not take the low. You never swipe the low. If you don't swipe the low, you create a room full of dust and that needs to be cleaned out at some point. But that is the liquidity created during the move up. And this is what we have in number three. So I'm afraid number three wins in terms of liquidity.

[00:51:15]That does not mean that this guaranteed that we go to number three. But it does mean that you cannot give your back to number three and ignore it and say right I'm going to put here a short with 20x and you know I'm going to make things worse because that is what caused this move in here to go straight into number two. Now that we took number two, number three is right there. Once we are done with number two and number three, we have a substantial one at 55. But let's see if we get there and that 48 which is the most shiny red that you can see once we normalize fully the chart in here.

[00:51:57]You can see that it wins against number five against 106 and everything. But even everything that you have up until 120 that alltime high is definitely huge.

[00:52:10]But that all-time high liquidity was not the biggest. At 73, we had more than at the all-time high. So definitely on the way up, we took many huge levels of short liquidity. And that that we left there was the smallest. And that's why we ended up in an all-time high. And on every cycle, every single cycle, you leave still liquidity on the upper end.

[00:52:36]And that doesn't mean that you go straight two months after into an all-time high. So, it's not an argument to say we're going into an all-time high. People are going to use that on crypto Twitter. They're going to constantly tell you that because the liquidity is so big at 130 that we must go to 130. If that was the case, they wouldn't be bare markets. They wouldn't be because every single bare market started with a huge liquidity that was way bigger than anything that we were putting on our way down. In that case, we always have to go back up and put a new alltime high. At 20K in 2017, we will have gone to 25K the month after.

[00:53:15]And at 69,000, we will have gone to 100K because we left a huge level of liquidity to the apparent. It's not an argument. It's wrong. 30-day liquidity, we have big chunks. And this one makes me salivate like a dog. 73465.

[00:53:30]Hopefully we get there. That will put me risk-free to start surfing the wave on the way down. But I don't count victory yet. Order book. There is a selling wall defending 81,000. It's been the case all the way from 80,000. I saw it this morning. But they're just spoofing people, right? They put a huge level of 114 and price still goes up. They move it 5 minutes before. Do not pay attention. This is weekend order book.

[00:53:57]We're just here to see what's going on, right? We have in here 700 at 83.

[00:54:03]There's some levels at 85, levels at 78, 79, 75. Fair enough. There's a whole range, a sandwich of liquidity all over the place. Spot took a beat in here, right? So, spot came back down, but it's coming back up and it's supporting the move of open interest at the same time.

[00:54:22]All right. I know you are overwhelmed.

[00:54:24]So, we're going to do a nice and relaxed summary for you. At this point, I'm hoping that you're holding a glass of whiskey with two rocks, laying down, petting your dog, your cat, or your girlfriend, whatever is your preference.

[00:54:39]As I've been saying during the week, we are sitting under a huge level of liquidity. Funding rates continue to get into the red. They're extremely sticky.

[00:54:49]Those shorts and longs are definitely defending every time we come back down.

[00:54:55]This is still the modus operandis and I don't see in the data a change yet. We get a move down and beating on spot and futures comes back at the rescue. Longs peak. We get green lines with negative funding rates with a lot of fear and price recovers. For how long that's going to be the case, my finger in the air tells me that until we get rid of the last heavy shorts, once the shorts fully cool down, there can be downside.

[00:55:27]This move on the general market vertical parabolic at some point is going to consume all the liquidity. And as I explained, S&P going up does not tell me Bitcoin goes up. But if S&P and NASDAQ corrects in a bare market timing in the cycle for Bitcoin, Bitcoin does correct.

[00:55:49]So the excuse of S&P going down, Bitcoin takes it straight away. If general markets go up strongly is an argument for the longs to take slight advantage.

[00:56:03]They may or may not win in a bare market going up. They might win for a short period of time, but if general markets corrects decently, and let's define decently because we just went in a straight line 28% on the next NASDAQ up.

[00:56:20]So, so a correction that is decent but still bullish, that's all I'm asking, is a move into the golden pocket. And that could be roughly a 10 to 13% to the downside. That's not a forecast. I'm just giving you a number. If the S&P was to do something like this, I will expect Bitcoin to have broken down or be in the middle of the breakdown or about to break down for ideally a new trading range to the lower end or the formation of a bullish divergence reaching 55,000 or 59 giving us a lower low in the price but still the momentum pushing up which is more or less what we should be looking for at this time in the cycle.

[00:57:02]If you are following also my RSI weekly playbook, right, a move down of the RSI, but it's a higher low and the price puts a lower low. Guys, if you want to open a new exchange because you're sick and tired of how poorly it performs the one that you're currently using, just close it down, open the link in the description for Tubbit, and you're going to get a completely different experience. This exchange was built by the same people from Bybit. It takes 2 minutes to open the account. that you deposit your USDT is non KYC. So, you'd start trading literally in 2 minutes.

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[00:57:58]Remember, 700 likes gives this time two subscriptions that I'm going to give away for 12 months for elite that gives you access to all my indicators. And I'm going to run a full week of 50% discount across my Patreon shop and subscriptions if we get to the 700 likes throughout the weekend. Thanks so much for watching. I'll see you in the next one.

[00:58:19]Bye-bye. Ah, and don't forget to wash your hands.