This STORM Is Becoming A PROBLEM To Figure Out..

[00:00:00]Well, things have certainly changed a lot in the tropics over the last two to three days and suddenly we're expecting tropical storm Bertha to form over the next 12, 18, 24 hours or so. Is it possible we can get a hurricane out of this? It is. It's pretty low, but we'll go over everything in this morning's video. First thing we'll cover is current conditions with this system.

[00:00:18]What's going on with it this morning in the Gulf, and then we'll go over all new model data. We'll speak on impacts and what we know. And then we'll have a segment we just kind of nerd out with you guys a little bit. Discuss what's changed, why it's changed, what's the trend right now, what could promote strengthening, what could prevent it, and then we'll have a segment for the severe weather outbreak that could unfold later on this afternoon, this evening for a large area of the country.

[00:00:38]Don't want to leave you. Hang in there.

[00:00:40]My name is Mitch. Good Monday morning.

[00:00:41]Hope you guys are doing awesome.

[00:00:42]Subscribe if you haven't. Like the video if you like it. Hype the video. And if anybody has anything I can pray about or pray over, as always, please uh put it in the comments below. Let's get rocking and rolling this morning. There's a lot to go over. There is a lot going on with the weather. So, let's talk about the tropics first. This is tropical depression 2. Still not a tropical storm as of around 7 a.m. Eastern time, around the time making this video. So, we're going to have to look at the water vapor loop here. Areas in white, more moist air, and pretty much all the other colors you see like this black over here. This is uh dry in all levels of the atmosphere. And then sort of the milky looking bluish green areas. This is moist in in in areas of the atmosphere but not fully moist. So the actual center of circulation that low-level circulation is right into here. All right. So it's actually tucked a little bit closer into the panhandle coastline and big bend of Florida coastline over the last uh really the overnight hours. So you notice there is some blow up of convection, shower and thunderstorm activity sort of north of the L and east of it, but most of it is really dispersed um to the west and I mean even way out here across the Gulf and way to the southwest um and the south of the actual low pressure. We have a better environment on this part of the system. So you're getting a lot of dispersement of air over here. So that means as air is being kind of pushed out, this allows for more air to rise and then that gets pushed out and then it's just a continuous cycle of rising air. And when we get rising air, we get more moisture, shower and thunderstorm activity. And we know that that creates more of a moist environment. We these tropical systems, they like moist air. They don't like dry air. So we're getting a lot of that dry air on the northern side of the system.

[00:02:24]And in fact, some of it's actually I would say it's continuing because it's been doing it since yesterday. Still wrapping into the broad kind of rotation circulation of the system itself. So it is a sloppy looking system this morning.

[00:02:37]This isn't totally unexpected, but it is expected to become a tropical storm later on today. So let's go on and move past this. Can we see this on radar? And we can. I mean, you can see where the low-level circulation is, that surface spin is, and it's right into here. And you can see the confection shower and thunderstorm activity wrapping around the actual L uh the central lower pressure. And some of this stuff is way over here, which makes sense based off what we just saw in the water vapor loop. We're getting a lot of thunderstorm activity that we can't see way over here. But we're getting a a push of some tropical rains, downpours into the panhandle and the bend of Florida this morning. But it's crazy how close I mean this thing has kind of crept to the north. Um, you know, some guidance was having us a bit more south this morning. So, this is kind of snuck to the north. Very marginal steering current right now. Not steering it very heavily one way or the other, but this is what it looks like on radar. Close enough to where we can actually see the spin. So, let's go over the latest from the National Hurricane Center. And this is the 4:00 a.m. Central time update, 5:00 a.m. Eastern time. And right now, still a tropical depression moving northwest at a whopping 3 mph. So technically it is moving a little bit more to the west rather than just straight to the north or northeast. And it's a 35 mileph depression expected to become a storm sometime today. That S stands for tropical storm. And you notice there's no H on the screen. So it's not expected to become a hurricane, but we do have tropical storm watches up continuing for the panhandle of Florida.

[00:04:07]And they've now extended to the coastal areas of um Alabama. So we'll see if these extend into Louisiana, Mississippi later on today. I do think they will sometime over the next 12 to 18 24 hours or so. But [gasps] you can see the cone goes all the way out to 1:00 a.m. um Saturday. And just remember when you look at this cone, this isn't the impact cone. So if you live, say, I don't know, maybe up in Hattiesburg, which is just outside this cone here in Mississippi.

[00:04:33]Don't immediately think you're going to get absolutely no impacts from this just because you live outside that white cone. This is where the center of the storm could go. So, it could go all the way up here, go inland, and it could stay well off the coastline and then kind of go down here, which we don't want to see because that would be a more intense scenario. So, another way I like to look at this cone is uh zoom earth.

[00:04:54]So, this uh kind of, you know, shows, you know, it's nighttime right now in a lot of these areas. Sun's still coming up. This shows um you know, cities and states maybe a little bit better. But one thing I like that it shows is you can click on these areas here and it shows the actual miles per hour on how strong it could be. So forecasting to be a 50 mile per hour tropical storm sometime tomorrow afternoon. Let's go and just take a closer look at this 2 a.m. Wednesday. Same thing. And then they think that the center of the storm could go right into southeast Louisiana right now. But just remember it could easily go up to Gulfport could go up to Mobile. And uh the trend with the cone is uh actually ticks south and the uh compared to the video I did yesterday afternoon and then it ticked back north.

[00:05:37]So the center of the cone kind of goes right through Galveastston and Houston but kind of just straddles the western Gulf Coastline um over the next few days. But max intensity right now has actually dropped to 50 miles hour.

[00:05:52]Remember yesterday it was 60 m hour at its highest. So you can tell the cone gets very wide across a large area of Texas, Louisiana as we get deeper into this work week. So we're going to be talking about this uh for the entire work week. You know, today's Monday, you know, Friday still few days out ahead.

[00:06:08]So, um, moving forward and going over some model guides, we do have the HR model run and, um, right now, uh, the low pressure, the millibar wise is, I believe, at 1,06 millibar low based off the 5 a.m. advisory. And, um, the her model saying it's around, 107. So, it has this a little bit weaker than what it actually is, which this is actually starting off here in about an hour. So, who knows? Might might weaken. But, anyways, we get this in motion. You're going to see this thing kind of just spins in one area. This is in Eastern time. So, we get all the way out to about, you know, 10:00 tonight and it begins to drop. You can see that millibar number, thousand millibar low.

[00:06:44]The more this number drops, the stronger the storm it is. And then it starts to get sub 1,000. And we continue and we get all the way to tomorrow, midm morning. And you can tell that this system is starting to, you know, look a little bit more healthy. But the northern side of this is still struggling. Uh kind of I would say it's more void of convection, thunderstorm, uh action. um on the north side and to the south side it it's better. It's because the environment I think on the southern side of the storm is just going to continue to be the best side and it's good because the south side of the system isn't over land. It's over just the open waters of the Gulf. So, we continue to move forward. What is this thing going to do? It gets as low as a 995 low. Um, and then we can only go out till about 2 a.m. Wednesday on the her model because it only goes out 48 hours and um, you know, has us at a 997 millibar low and it looks like it's just inching closer and closer to Louisiana.

[00:07:36]Now, I know you're not seeing a lot of action along the Gulf Coastline, but just note that this isn't going to be perfect. This is going to tell us exactly what's going to happen. We're still going to get a lot of water that gets pushed up, you know, against the Gulf Coastline as rotation around it going like this. So, we're going to get that onshore flow uh that brings uh some storm surge up into the central Gulf Coast line. So, um continuing to move forward, let's look at some hurricane models. Now, we got the ones from the OZ, the ones from 06Z, the morning hurricane models are about to start running here in the next hour or so. But I would say that the Hworth model is um verifying well it's starting this off on what it thinks it is pretty well because that's pretty much exactly what it is around a 106 millibar low which is what it was I believe at the 5 a.m. update.

[00:08:25]Uh so we continue to move forward here and we start off this morning and then we get into this afternoon. It's a 1000 to1 millibar low. So strengthens steadily just like the herd model does.

[00:08:37]So one would say this is probably a tropical storm at this point. And I'll be honest, you know, the the Hworth model thinks this is going to kind of wrap some convection up a little bit faster and really improve today. So, we'll see if that actually happens. You can see these banding features hitting Florida. This is the panhandle of Florida right here. This is Georgia.

[00:08:53]This is getting into Alabama. And as we move forward, by the time we get to later this evening, this is a sub 1,000 mibar low pressure. So, it's a strengthening tropical storm. And I mean, gets all the way to a 994 tomorrow morning, 990 tomorrow afternoon. You can tell once again the northern side of the system void a bit void of action. It's the southern side of the system looks the worst. And then we continue and then it begins to kind of weaken upon landfall. So it's not really a land interaction. I believe it's dry air because it begins to weaken before it even moves inland. And then it begins to make landfall. Whatever kind of landfall it's going to be into southeast Louisiana and southern areas of Mississippi is just a tropical storm.

[00:09:35]Now, does it get back offshore? Uh, it might, but on the Hwarf model, looks like it completely dissipates over Louisiana and then eventually Texas. So, what about the Hmon model? This is kind of one of the aggressive scenarios and it's starting off exactly what the system is also, you know, as a 106 millibar low. And as we move forward, we get into this evening, it's a 999. And then we get into Tuesday morning, 24 hours from now, it's a 991. And it has this thing getting together pretty fast over the next 24 hours. It's um you know at this point a pretty strong tropical storm. I don't I don't know if I buy that and then it turns into a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. So I would say this is sort of one of those worst case scenarios, right? So we got a hurricane now and it somewhat weakens just like the Hworth model does, but then it dips southwest. So it looks like the ridge builds on top of it and then it kind of just straddles the Louisiana coastline and and then it begins to strengthen again as it's able to dip down to the Gulf. So this is the Louisiana coastline. This is a this is the northeast Texas coastline. This is a 979 millibar low now. And then it proceeds to strengthen or maintain strength and it's heading right towards the Texas coastline um as a a category 2 hurricane um next so I'm sorry this Thursday evening and then makes landfall. I mean that would be a nasty scenario for sure.

[00:10:56]So this is one of those worst case scenarios but we're still seeing them occasionally, right? So, [snorts] yeah, this is on down the Texas coastline. I mean, this I would say this is closer to Brownsville than it is um you know, than maybe Houston and stuff like I'll say it's right in the middle. All right, let's not get too hung up on it. Uh but looking at some AI guidance here, the Euro AI, which sniffed this system out first over a week ago now, and it's starting off about what it is, maybe a millibar or two off. And as we move forward, you can see this begins to strengthen too. The windfield is beginning to strengthen as you see some of these uh blues turn into purple which indicates uh stronger winds in all levels of the atmosphere as it strengthens and then we move into Wednesday morning and it gets as low as around a th00and1 millibar low tropical storm status and you know you can see that the flow and how it's moving on shore uh this is going to bring some storm surge into this area the coastline of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi even continue to bring some storm surge surge into areas of the western panhandle of Florida.

[00:12:00]Probably makes a landfall, then it kind of straddles the Louisiana coastline and then it gets back over the Northwest Gulf and then makes another landfall into Houston, but you know, it doesn't like the idea of this a restrengthening.

[00:12:13]Some models, that's the thing is we're seeing some models show two landfalls.

[00:12:18]One happens over the next 48 hours or so. The other happens later this work week. The thing that I'm concerned about is if first off it just flat out misses the first landfall in Louisiana. But there there's definitely model disagreement with whether this strengthens again once it gets back over the Gulf for sure. Now, I will show you the icon because I've been I've been hammering home the icon a lot. And it went crazy in a run yesterday. Showed like a major hurricane hitting uh hitting Texas. Definitely not showing that anymore. But this is the latest morning run. And this is hourby hour.

[00:12:52]You can see this move slower and we get into tomorrow afternoon. This is around a weak tropical storm at this point. And you can see how it's lopsided. All the heaviest actions in that yellow, orange, and red. It's all to the south of the storm. The weaker stuff is to the north, which is where land is. So all the the heavier activity is way out over the open waters just bothering oil rigs and the fish out in the ocean. Right? So you continue to move forward. this inches and makes a landfall into southeast Louisiana and then it tries to dip back over the Gulf here and it doesn't like the idea of this restrengthening. In fact, it completely fizzles apart and just turns into some showers and storm action across the coastline of Texas.

[00:13:31]So, what about some ensemble guys? The Euro Ensemble and remember this blends together a whole lot of members and on this output on weather nerds.com which is a phenomenal site. Kind of odd to use at times but once you get the hang of it it's easy. it throws all the members on the screen for us. So, you're going to see a bunch of different scenarios.

[00:13:49]Don't think there's like 50 low pressures. And as we're moving forward and getting into tomorrow evening, you can see there's a wide range of possibilities. Some of these members are further north. Some of these members are pretty far south. And um some of them are pretty strong. This is getting into Wednesday morning. You got a couple members that are well into the 990s. You got a few members that are reaching a category 1 hurricane. And then the stronger members, which aren't a whole lot, um, are further to the south, completely miss land, and are just I think the further this gets south in really any term time frame wise, the better it's going to do. And the more of a worst case scenario could unfold. So, we continue to move forward here. And a lot of the members go right into Louisiana, therefore weaken and dissipate. But you got a few stragglers that want to just cruise across the northern Gulf and uh get all the way into a hurricane. Some even a strong hurricane and uh you got just a handful of members that go right into the Texas coastline as a stronger storm system, but most of them going right into the central Gulf Coastline, Louisiana, you know, Mississippi, maybe even Alabama over the next 48 hours. Um, so what about uh the Google deep mind ensemble guidance which does pretty well and you can see how they're clustered up a little bit better than the Euro ensemble and by the time we get to 48 hours from now most of the scenarios are heading right towards Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and most of them hit eventually as they kind of abruptly begin to shift west as I think a ridge of high pressure will be building on top of this. uh basically uh all of them that form go right into southeast Louisiana, but then you see how some of them get back over the northwest Gulf and then they try to strengthen, some don't try to strengthen at all. Um but you can see a handful, maybe two handfuls of members get all the way to the Texas coastline, but not a whole lot. And then you look at the Euro AI ensemble, guidance, and you can see how it's very spread apart over the next just 36 hours. I mean, this is the middle of the night tomorrow night. You got several members just trying to get north. You got most of the members heading right towards Louisiana. And you got a lot of members down here just hanging south. And you can see some of these blues or greens. The when you see the blue goes go to the green, that's a stronger scenario, tropical storm, maybe even a low-end category 1 hurricane. You see a lot of these members do go right into southeast Louisiana. But there's a lot of them just flat out miss and then head right to Texas. And there's scenarios of course where it hits Louisiana, gets back over the Gulf and then heads right on to Texas. So, what about impacts? What we know, a little bit of storm surge, right? We got tropical storm watches that do extend all the way into Mobile Bay and just the coastal regions of Alabama and then we still got them up for the panhandle of Florida. But a few feet of storm surge, nothing too crazy right now. Um but uh as far as wind speeds, the chances to see tropical storm for force wind gust, which is 39 40 mile per hour winds or higher and gust, okay, not not really substained for a long period of time, but gust and you can get this in just a normal, you know, summer thunderstorm.

[00:16:59]It's not even severe, right? But the chances have certainly increased and um you know along the for example the Alabama coastline and portions of the southeast Louisiana Louisiana Louisiana coastline it's as high as a 40 to 50% chance to see tropical storm force wind gust over the next um you know couple days or so. But of course the highest is right out here over the Gulf where you're going to be closer to the center of circulation and it's as high as 60 to 70% chance. So, um definitely going to get tropical storm force wind gust with some of these banding features um associated with this depression tropical storm. Now, rainfall, you know, I've kind of already teased this. The bul the bulk of the thunderstorm activity is going to be south of the low pressure. So, what does that mean? If you look at the blend of all models, I'm actually going to put this in motion and you're going to see that between now and this weekend, let's go all the way out to about Saturday evening, the heaviest rainfall, which is a lot of it, is falling over water, over the Gulf. I mean, you got six to as much as 12 inches of rain falling over the Gulf. Now, we got a few inches of rain showing up over the Gulf Coastline, stretching from the panhandle of Florida all the way to portions of Texas. All right. But the bulk of the rainfall is offshore. So, we'll have to see if any of this noses a little bit closer. For example, way out it's southeast Louisiana, you could get a few to several inches of rain. All right. So, we'll have to watch for this and how this shifts uh with model guidance and things like that. And you know, the excessive rainfall outlook, it's very oddlooking and it just has a slight risk for the coastline of Texas and Louisiana right now. now. So that means there's a 15% chance of flash flooding. So it's not very high right now. All right, let's talk about kind of the nerding out details of this. This is the easiest one to explain. Sea surface temperatures.

[00:18:52]What could promote strengthening? Well, what could promote strengthening is this low pressure not really interacting with land too much or just making a landfall in the shorter term and just kind of cruising across this area. Like right now, the system is right here, right?

[00:19:07]It's an ugly L. If it just kind of does like this, then it's not going to be bothered by land to the north and it's going to cruise across sea surface temperatures that in Celsius are 29, 30, 31 degrees. Convert that to Fahrenheit.

[00:19:21]I mean, that's mid, even upper 80s in certain cases. So, it's very warm in the northern Gulf. It's definitely above average. And um yeah, if this hangs out over the open waters for long enough, then it's going to be able to reach a maximum, which is probably a hurricane.

[00:19:36]Let's leave it at that. categories, who knows? But the the more it just stays deeper into the Gulf, the better for the system, the worse for obviously people and us. So, one thing [sighs and gasps] as far as steering currents, and then we'll kind of go back to what could prevent strengthening also because the steering currents and dry and moist air sort of come together here. So, I want to freeze the screen right here. This is just the Europe. This shows the upper pattern, troughing, ridging. So, it's a boring looking screen, right? But I want to circle this right here. You see this area in blue? That is tropical depression, too. Or maybe by the time some of you folks are watching this, this is tropical storm Bertha. So, this is soon to be Bertha down here in the Gulf. And this area of lower pressure because the tropical system is lower pressure itself. And then we got this kind of ridge kind of nudging in. And we got this trough sort of dropping down.

[00:20:32]And you got this one sort of leaving. So the flow is going like this and like this around this ridge feature. And we got some flow just kind of going like that around the immediate low pressure.

[00:20:47]All right. Our tropical system. There's not really any flow steering this one way or the other. It's very marginal into here. So, nothing is really steering this system. That's why it's just going at 1 to 3 miles per hour right now because it's not feeling the steering currents up here. It's not really feeling the steering currents over here. In fact, there's upper wind flow pushing against the storm to the north, which is actually just kind of keeping it down into the Gulf for now.

[00:21:14]It's kind of preventing it from moving too much to the north. And this is actually creating wind shear on the northern side of the system, which is if you tune in the beginning, why which is why it's so dry on the northern side of the system, which I think the system will deal with that for the life of this entire tropical system. So, I just wanted to show you guys this and just explain why it's moving so slow right now. It's really not tapping in any kind of upper flow directional wise. So, we're going to look at the Hwarf model and see how things could change uh for the next couple of days. So, we'll start off Tuesday morning. the HWF model. Make sure we're the right one. HW warf model thinks this will be a tropical storm, a 997, but let's not focus too much on the strength. You see this kind of spin that we're seeing? This is a high pressure and flow around high pressure. And then up here, you see the stronger jet streak. This is generated by a trough that will bring a nasty severe weather event today and tomorrow across the northern section of the country. That is a strong jet streak, but this system is too far north to feel any of that. We're just kind of seeing the downward motion of that um between the trough and the ridge. So, let's draw on this once again. Low pressure right here. So, the flow around this kind of moving in high pressure is doing like this. And the more we go in time, the more that our tropical system will feel that. Um, and this is going to try to nose over it.

[00:22:34]And this is not going to be able to escape to the north. So, it's going to begin to just sort of mosey to the west at a quicker pace, I think, over the next couple of days. I think it'll take a little bit of time, but I really think as we get into Tuesday, PM onward, it'll begin to pick up some pace. The reason is is because this high pressure tries to nose on top of the system. So, it's able to actually get north here. You can see the low pressure makes a landfall, but then the high pressure tries to bog down on top of it. And if you notice, the low pressure kind of goes from here and then begins to sort of dip down a little bit more like that. That is because our high pressure is here and it's trying to steer this system kind of down into here. But it might be too late and the system might at this point have already weakened and just kind of fizzles apart and gets absolutely ripped to shreds by a lot of uh vertical wind shear. just sheer blasting the system, introducing dry air, and eventually you don't even see the L show up on your screen. So, you can see how this thing is just cannot get north. Marginal steering currents, this ridge kind of noses in on top of it. And I think a really a cooler way to show you this is just kind of flipping this back to the euro here. And you can see as we move forward, you can see that area in burgundy right there.

[00:23:57]That is the stronger high pressure. And this tries to nose in on the system. Our lower pressure is right here at this point. You can't even see it because it weakens so much. But this thing tries to nose in on it. All right. Just like that. So, it's trying to tuck it this low pressure up under the high pressure and it can and it's just too far away to feel this trough that could allow it to skate to escape this way. So, at this point, this thing's just too far down the Gulf. It's too far away from the rapid flow of the trough and it's start starting to feel the flow of this ridge nosing in that area in Burgundy, the stronger placement of the ridge. And you can see how the low pressure kind of pops up again right there. It's kind of up under the nose of the strongest portion of the ridge. And it ain't going to escape north at this point unless it was a stronger system. A stronger system wants to gain latitude, get further north. It'll fight to get further north a little bit more. So, and you can tell just with all like like I just showed you this right here.

[00:24:58]Let's get all this craziness off your screen. You can see that the lines with the arrows embedded into them are going to be going against the storm just like this for the life of it. I mean, so it's bearing down on the system. On the southern side, we got a nice outflow.

[00:25:13]So, air is being dispersed out away from the system. So, the southern side of the system will do be the best side, which is the best side right now. So, it's kind of have you it's kind of like you have two competing environments with this system. One is the weak side, the northern side, because you got upper flow blasting against it, and you got the south side and maybe the southwest side. Flow is being dispersed outward.

[00:25:35]That's the better side. Allows for rising air. And you can really see that here when I show you the moisture chart off the Horf model getting into tomorrow. You can see there's a ton of green, moist air to the south, and a more of a muted green to even some brown to the north. and it's just going to be fighting dry air to the northern side.

[00:25:54]So even if this gets tucked way down to the Gulf, I think the ceiling is just dampened a little bit because there's going to be so much dry air to the north in my opinion. So you can see it's just a tail of two halves. Moist on the moist in the south, very dry to the north. And then what totally doesn't work for it is if it just flat out gets north and makes landfall. Then you got two things working against one good thing. and got land interaction, dry air, and then you got it just facing off against the moist air. And the the land interaction, dry air is going to win every time. So, all right, moving past this. What about a severe weather today? Let's not ignore this. We got to keep the energy up. This is a big deal for our folks in the upper Midwest and the Midwest. And then we got a slight risk down here for areas of the Carolinas and Virginia and a marginal risk. So enhanced risk up in the orange, level three out of five, slight risk in the uh in the yellow. Level two out of five and dark green is a marginal risk.

[00:26:47]What's driving this? So tornado threat 5% risk of a tornado today within 25 miles in the given location. Black outlined area, black dash lines going in between. That is a risk of a strong tornado. So the tornado threat not super high, but if any tornado does form, it could be strong. EF2. All right. Right, like I said, green 2% risk of a tornado.

[00:27:09]Not expecting much of a tornado threat at all down here on the southern mode of today's severe weather threat, wind threat. We might as well just look at this really quick. 30% risk of damaging winds within 25 miles in the given location, excuse me, in North Carolina, portion of Virginia, hail threat with this uh pretty low, but let's go on and focus back in on this area. Wind bag is possible today. Red area, 30% risk of damaging winds within 25 miles in any given point. Yellow area is a 15% risk.

[00:27:36]Black outlined area, black dash lines going in between. This is where winds could exceed hurricane force wind gust 75 mph plus winds. Hail threats serious.

[00:27:45]Also yellow area 15% risk of hail exceeding 1 in in diameter or larger.

[00:27:50]Black outlined area. Black dash lines going in between. Hail could exceed 2 in in diameter or larger. All right, let's go over what the radar could look like today. We'll start off around late morning. It's 11:00 a.m. Central time.

[00:28:02]We got thunderstorms up across Lake Superior up in Canada. And then you're going to see um by the time we get into this afternoon, explosive thunderstorms begin to develop across Wisconsin and areas of Iowa, Minnesota, and uh these storms will explode across areas of the UP also. So, Marquette, I know we got a a tight-knit family that follows up here in the UP and Michigan, but Marquette, New Bear, you guys are starting to flirt with some nasty storms at the same time.

[00:28:29]There's just there's a lot of clusters of storms everywhere. We're going to have to zoom in, zoom out a lot here. At the same time, we start to get into uh you know, seven, eight o'clock, nasty storms are impacting central to eastern um central to eastern areas of the up Michigan. Looks like we have a decaying area of thunderstorms down here to the south and northern Illinois, northern Indiana. But listen, this this area of storms could very well still be packing a punch. I wouldn't get too uber focused on the fact that this is weakening.

[00:28:57]Could very well still be ongoing. Um but then we get more thunderstorms that form right into here. And you can see some of these shadow areas popping off some of these cells indicating some stronger maybe robust uh rotating updrafts. And we got a lot of rain and thunderstorm activity across um Michigan. And we got to watch these thunderstorms to the south down here. Let's back it up a little bit. This is 9:00, 10:00, 11, midnight tonight. And just rounds of thunderstorms. Detroit getting hit later tonight. So he's going to pack a punch.

[00:29:27]There's going to be a lot of wind energy with this and there's a lot going on.

[00:29:31]For example, you know, if we look at old the old Roffus model, I like to call it Roffus and uh see what it's showing with the development of these storms today and not a not a whole lot different. I mean, it's definitely different with the convection down here, but still shows it in the same area. But honestly, the model guides kind of agree. It shows an explosion of thunderstorms in areas of the eastern UP today. a little bit thunderstorm action in Minnesota and then it kind of shows additional thunderstorms forming later this evening like this is around 10 11 o'clock 12 midnight tonight forming across Iowa you know northern Illinois and then getting into Indiana and lower Michigan so I mean there's there's some pretty good agreement there and then we take a look at just areas further to the east and this is the HR model and you can see big area of storms moving into southern I'm sorry northern Illinois um and then it shows it weakening and then how much will these storms survive as we're getting into Tuesday morning?

[00:30:28]We'll have to see. But not a whole lot to show you here. And uh then we'll take a look at let's back it up. Let's look at Virginia and North Carolina where we have the slight risk of day.

[00:30:37]Thunderstorms will bubble up and they will pack a punch. Big- time heating later this morning and um storms will fire up and mooch off the heat and humidity. Man, it has been a brutal last several days of heat, guys. I mean, we have just casually hit the upper 90s every day for for the last several days here in central South Carolina, which is normal type stuff, but man, it's just that time of the year where you go outside and nobody's really outside in the afternoon. You you can't even blame the kids for not going outside because it's just it's just too hot. All you all you do when you go outside about 3, four, 5:00 is you just hear the humming of the AC units. So, anyways, uh thunderstorms um pretty much firing right where they have the slight risk today across areas of North Carolina.

[00:31:17]This is 4:00, 5:00, 6:00, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, midnight tonight, 1:00 a.m., 2:00 a.m., 3:00 a.m., 4:00 a.m. So, we're going to just have rounds of thunderstorms across this area. But there is a ton of wind energy, unseasonable amount of wind energy for today's severe weather threat. You can see it drop down here. It's going to come in pockets. Wherever the most intense thunderstorms are, that's where you'll have your most intense winds. For example, you look at these little pockets of yellow. This is where we could have 50, 60, 70 mile per hour wind gusts. It's just trying to figure out where it's going to be. You know, very strong winds, you know, into the up and we got just you just got to figure out where where the where these most intense storms are going to be. But look behind it. Strong wind gusts follow right behind it. And that is a cold front, folks. This is a lot of dry air moving in. A nice air mass. So, we're going to have to deal with some nasty weather today. Very moist air. And then look at the cold front moves in and whooshes out the air mass. where we got due points in the 50s, 40s, little little taste of fall if you will, a little feel of it.

[00:32:17]Um, tomorrow there's a big nasty severe weather threat. Tomorrow's threat could be even worse than today. In fact, I think it I think it will. Uh, enhanced risk right across the central apps, west and east of it, areas of the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley. Slight risk goes all the way from New York um all the way down to the Carolinas and Tennessee. And then the tornado threats at a 5% risk for a pretty large area. 2% risk in the green, 5% risk in the brown, and the wind threat, folks, in that pink. That is a 45% chance of damaging winds within 25 miles in the given location. You guys just dealt with this.

[00:32:48]It's a similar system as a few days ago.

[00:32:51]Um, and here we go again. 30% risk of damaging winds in the red, 15% risk in the um in the yellow. And then the hell threat, 15% risk of hail exceeding 1 in.

[00:33:03]And I'm just going to zoom through this real fast. I mean, it is just going to look we we got storms everywhere tomorrow. It's around four o'clock, three or four o'clock tomorrow afternoon. And man, this is a high impact weather day. We got multiple clusters of thunderstorms just raging through this entire area that you see on your screen. It's going to be tough to figure out who's going to see what, but there is a lot of push in the air uh in the atmosphere and there's just a lot of severe weather ingredients.

[00:33:29]That's all I got. Thank y'all for tuning in. God bless all y'all. Appreciate y'all's support and we'll continue to keep you updated with the tropics and all the severe weather ongoing. God bless.