Tamil Nadu Exit Polls Predict Tight Race As TVK Disrupts DMK And AIADMK Vote Share | TN Elections

追加: 2026-05-01

[00:00:00]But I just want to again put out for our viewers what today's Chanakya has said.

[00:00:04]These are the numbers on your screens.

[00:00:05]Focus on the vote share here at 39% is the DMK. So, they are at this point leading as per today's Chanakya, the [music] edge to the DMK. What I want you to see is how Vijay has performed. If you had uh the Axis My India suggesting that TVK and Vijay would get 35%.

[00:00:24]Today's Chanakya is now second in, you know, giving numbers to TVK. They've given 30%. And so, that pushes AIADMK to third position at 27% making this a very interesting contest.

[00:00:36]How does this turn into seats? If you look at seats right now, TVK then is at about 63.

[00:00:44]Remember, Axis My India gave 98 to 120.

[00:00:47]63 give or take 11 is the numbers today's Chanakya has given as far as the AIADMK is concerned and DMK is concerned. First, the DMK with their allies is at 125. The AIADMK once again in third position at 45. AIADMK plus their allies. You know what's interesting here, Preeti and Maria, is that while you've got today's Chanakya, Axis My India suggesting a similar trend as far as AIADMK goes of putting them in number three, there are two pollsters, What Wybe as well as JVC, who have actually said AIADMK will emerge number one over DMK and TVK. So, you've got every possible permutation and combination of exit poll right now.

[00:01:27]Well, you're right there.

[00:01:27]>> But interestingly, Preeti, the question that you asked and even Pradeep Gupta today clarified that [music] 70 could be the worst-case scenario. You're looking at that number here, 63 plus minus 11.

[00:01:40]Is actually that 70 number that the worst-case scenario is what is being projected by Pradeep Gupta. You know, is actually the best-case scenario for today's Chanakya. Well, you're right there, but both of these pollsters seemingly have positioned Vijay. You know, they've got the direction right at least for Vijay Sajan, political analyst in the studio with us.

[00:02:00]>> Interesting. Lots of things have happened, Sajan, in the last 45 minutes.

[00:02:03]Today's Chanakya, number one in Kerala, has pegged dead heat between the UDF and the LDF. Suddenly, Kerala becomes all the more interesting. Congress that was planning on who the chief minister is back in the game on what's really going on. But the numbers coming in for Tamil Nadu because what had clearly seemed to be, you know, a punt many would suggest, some would suggest that Pradeep Gupta had hit it out of the park. Either he would have had egg on his face or, you know, projecting him to be the single largest party, which is Vijay. But now you have today's Chanakya, which seems to at least go in the same direction.

[00:02:37]Not the numbers that possibly Pradeep Gupta projected, but still impressive 30%. Giving some cover fire to Pradeep Gupta that way. Some cover fire that he is not alone, but real takeaway would be that would I mean, we do not go into the exact numbers, but even if we take that yes, Vijay is expecting uh performing better than what was expected. Would AIADMK and TVK be able to dislodge together? I think they are going to be No, no, that's not actually how it looks like. That's not how it looks like. It's 108 still.

[00:03:09]If they add up. You see how they are here? It's still that number.

[00:03:14]No, so I'll GIVE YOU ANOTHER SCENARIO THEN. Let me give you another scenario.

[00:03:17]Add TVK, add AIADMK plus, throw in a few from the DMK. I think everyone knows what I'm referring to. But maybe, let's just say maybe Congress with about eight to 10 comes in from the DMK, moves over.

[00:03:30]Then you have these two players Or maybe or maybe actor Vijay will be a little more patient because he has just had a brilliant start to his debut.

[00:03:38]>> Okay, so he's very clear, I'll be chief minister. No deputy, none of that. Chief minister only. But at 125, Maria, you know, when the majority mark is 118, you're in a very precarious position as it is. You can't have one ally miffed with you. You need everyone together.

[00:03:53]>> know, my sense is but my sense is, you know, Akshita, if the DMK if this is an exact poll, right?

[00:03:59]If this is not an exit poll and an exact poll and you have the DMK reaching halfway mark and breaching halfway mark, which is at 125 over 118, slim majority.

[00:04:09]I feel the DMK then will have enough muscle power to make sure it stays put and manages to get a bit of the TVK because the or some from the AIDMK into their camp and bolster that majority. If I feel my gut instinct is if it is if the DMK breaches the halfway mark, then enough muscle strength that the DMK has to consolidate it.

[00:04:32]>> Yes, because this is return of MK Stalin. He has been in power for five years. He's seeking re-election. And here is the man who's returning. So, someone who is an incumbent has more chance to continue with a vote share gap of 9%. But you know, Akshita, the larger question is what does it say about Tamil Nadu politics in general if this is the number that we are looking at and if actor Vijay will stay the course at 30%.

[00:04:58]No, so I'll tell you what.

[00:04:59]>> If he doesn't stay the course at 30% and mid-election mid, It's hard for him. You know, you're talking about Dravidian might. You're talking of DMK consolidating position. Do you think they'll let a Vijay continue to grow then till right up to the next five years I'm not I'M NOT EVEN GETTING into that. I'm getting into something very basic because I feel they have it's it's a political party that is entrenched. If they if they breach the halfway mark, then you cannot remove the DMK is my gut instinct. The reason I'm giving you another scenario is you all know what played out before the election. How the DMK and Congress were fighting it out over seats and all of that. Here's where the buzz came from. The reality is that Rahul Gandhi, much like many of the Tamil Nadu Congress leaders, said let's give Vijay a chance. Let's ally with him. Vijay is known to have had multiple conversations with Rahul Gandhi as well.

[00:05:43]They are known to have had conversations even after the Karur stampede. And so, it made sense. Rahul Gandhi was for it saying let's take a chance. How long will we play second fiddle? Sonia Gandhi stepped in and showed the alliance was on.

[00:05:54]So, the Tamil Nadu but even if AIADMK No, but now will Congress come with AIADMK >> And that possibility, that scenario, that scenario you can still say holds true if you have TVK alone. No, if you have TVK with Pradeep Gupta's numbers.

[00:06:09]>> Yes. Right? If TVK Pradeep if Pradeep Gupta's exit poll is exact poll of the Can we get Can we get all the poll of polls? No, I'm going to do that. Let's pull up the poll of polls. Yeah, let's get in all the poll of polls. Get in those figures so that we can I don't know. Look at several scenarios. At this point, we're still three days away from results, so we can afford to do that. Axis My India, 98 to 120. And now you have someone who's at least close. Preeti, today's Chanakya at 63. So, these two are close.

[00:06:36]The rest, of course, still way, way off.

[00:06:38]But you know, Maria and Sajan and both of you can come in on this. If you look at these figures. So, if this is the poll this if this poll holds, which is Axis My India poll holds, then the scenario that Akshita is speaking of, Maria, is the Congress moving away from the DMK because they had a history of hedging, shall we go or shall we not go, is more possible than in this case because if the Congress if Chanakya's numbers hold and at 125, the Congress is not going anywhere. Absolutely. I I'm very convinced with your argument, Preeti. 120, if that is the number, then we are looking at the Congress. Perhaps in fact, many of the some of the Congress leaders Nobody is saying 120. Nobody is saying 120. Like I'm saying, if it is Nobody is saying 120, Akshita. We are saying if it's 98. If it's 105. If it is 105, then the Congress is in a position. Then the Congress is in a position.

[00:07:22]>> No, so let's say there are 98, right?

[00:07:25]The Congress brings what? Eight to 10.

[00:07:28]No, even then you're looking at I mean, we are not going with the exact numbers.

[00:07:31]What we are saying is, Akshita, scenario for the Congress to move to the TVK than this scenario. I don't see the Congress moving to the TVK if the DMK plus breaches 118 Let me tell you why I'm constantly talking about Congress switching over the moment they get a chance. It's beyond the numbers right now.

[00:07:51]Reportedly, this is what you're hearing from Congress leaders, that they are looking at Vijay as someone who they're investing in. Investment for 2029.

[00:07:59]Investment >> for a star campaign. He would be come out As soon as the Tamil Nadu numbers came out, I spoke to a senior Congress leader from the state of Tamil Nadu. He said they are very happy with the numbers of And that is But they need that. They'll need that number to shift.

[00:08:15]Yes. So, that's why to look at the AIADMK actor Vijay combination is highly unlikely, but that is only if there is that number. 120 with Congress I I agree with the Maria. That's 125, THERE'S NO WAY DMK IS bringing that. And let's look at this. Okay, then, Sajan.

[00:08:35]Okay, I know I know what's happening right now. There is a fair amount of excitement of excitement because there are two scenarios playing, but