First Alert Extended Forecast: Wildfire smoke lingers as afternoon storms develop in mountains

[00:00:03]Thanks so much for tuning in to this first alert weather extended forecast.

[00:00:07]I'm Audrey Alstad. Let's talk about what is on the way for the rest of your work week heading into the weekend. We've been seeing the monsoon moisture for weeks at this point and it will likely continue for at least several more days.

[00:00:20]The best chance for any showers or isolated storms will be in the mountains, specifically the central mountains, but it's possible that the valleys see a stray shower or an isolated storm, a couple rumbles of thunder move through the lower elevations as well. It is a possibility.

[00:00:35]However, the biggest concern as we've already seen in the valleys is going to be that smoke that continues to linger and drift in even from wildfires burning in neighboring states. So, not necessarily our own wildfires that we're even being impacted by. So, for the next couple of days, I would say the worst levels that we could potentially see will be in the orange, which is AQI of 101 to 150. Where we want to be is below 50. So, uh this level of air quality would be unhealthy for a little bit of a bigger group of people, most likely still those who have respiratory problems, any other type of lung or breathing problems as well, but it really it's not good for anyone to be breathing in. So, limit your time outdoors if you're sensitive, but really for most people in general, if you can, as we continue to watch this wildfire smoke move through the northwest.

[00:01:30]There's a large concentration of fires burning in central Oregon, but there's also fires in Washington and across Idaho as we know as well. Everything usually shifts from the west to the east, so we can expect that smoke to continue to drift into our region, especially those fires coming from uh central Oregon. Those are really going to continue to push that smoke right into the Treasure Valley and western Idaho. Washington will send smoke into north Idaho as well. So, we're looking at Thursday morning at this point. Looks like that smoke gets a little bit thicker again. Now, according to this model here shows that that smoke lightens up a little bit by Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. However, this is not a guarantee. Depends on how the fires continue to burn and how the winds move as well. In general, I would say expect it to be hazy at the worst in those orange levels, unhealthy for some levels for the next couple of days. It's better to just air on the side of caution and prepare for that possibility.

[00:02:28]On the other hand, the storms that we're talking about and that we've been experiencing in the afternoon still being driven by high pressure. The core of it sits off to the east of us. So, we're right here in Southwest Idaho.

[00:02:39]High pressure is driving that moisture from the south northward right across that Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Nevada border and then we continue to see those showers and isolated storms, which typically come about when we start to see that afternoon sunshine and warmer temperatures as well. They have uh those showers and storms have brought us a little bit of measurable precipitation for July. In fact, we're not too far off from what is average this time of year.

[00:03:05]So, we don't typically see a lot of rain in July in general, less than a quarter of an inch usually this month. We've seen less than 2/10 of an inch. So, we're still a bit under, but not too far off. We're currently uh not that much drier than where we are in the middle of summer. However, we are still very warm.

[00:03:23]As we know, we've had multiple triple-digit four triple-digit days for Boise so far this year. We're currently the 10th warmest July on record. Again, the month's obviously not over. So, we don't know where we will land by the end of the month, but we are expecting more triple-digit days on the way. Now, we do still have that chance for non-severe thunderstorms to develop. This is Wednesday when this map says today. This uh extended forecast is taking place on Wednesday afternoon. So, we have that chance for non-severe storms across southern Idaho today. Same chance goes for tomorrow, which is Thursday as well, although it looks like the western Magic Valley might have a little bit of a break from those storms, or at least a better chance for a break from those storms come Thursday afternoon.

[00:04:07]Wednesday afternoon, the best chance for those scattered storms will be in the central mountains. It's possible we see some storm activity in far southern Idaho. A shower or two may roll through your region if you're in the western Magic Valley or the Treasure Valley.

[00:04:21]West central mountains don't seem to expect much on Wednesday afternoon.

[00:04:25]Thursday morning, we are dry and pretty clear. The clouds do move out at that point, but come Thursday afternoon, same thing goes, monsoons bring back that chance for thunderstorms. It is likely that the mountains have that better chance, however, the valleys could hear a couple rumbles of thun- thunder. That is still a very good possibility as we typically see with monsoon moisture in the middle of summer. Now, the biggest impacts that we're watching out for when it comes to storms is the possibility of heavy downpours, which could lead to flash flooding in some areas. Most likely that would take place in burn scarred land or higher mountains where that terrain is steeper, so then we'd be worried about debris flow as well. More widespread would be some gusty outflow winds and lightning. Whether it's abundant lightning or just a couple strikes, we still want to watch out for that. As it is summer, we could still see lightning-caused fires, and of course it does pose a safety risk to people as well.

[00:05:21]As we move forward to the weekend ahead of us, it looks like things quiet down on the storm front. High pressure will continue to stay in control, not too many systems impacting our area. In fact, they seem to stay to the north of us. So, here in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, we're not seeing major impacts. I should say that's mostly true for Idaho.

[00:05:42]Washington and Oregon, especially along the coast, could definitely see some more impacts, but in the Intermountain West, a little further inland, Boise, and even our mountains are going to quiet down over the next several days after we see these afternoon storms Wednesday, Thursday, maybe Friday as well, but the weekend seems to be a little calmer at this point in time.

[00:06:02]However, we have a better idea day by day when it comes to that monsoon activity. However, we can see those hot temperatures are not really leaving anytime soon. We've already seen four triple digit days in Boise this uh year so far as I mentioned. We expect several more Thursday through Saturday. There's a chance of triple digits, and then next week Wednesday through Friday, Saturday as well, that possibility for 100° or hotter is sticking around at least through the end of July, even the beginning of August as we can see. If not hundreds, then we're expecting those 90° temperatures. Twin Falls on the other hand, an area that is typically a little cooler on the temperature front when it comes to uh 7-day forecast, and at least for the valleys, Twin Falls typically sees cooler temperatures.

[00:06:48]Wednesday, there is a 40% chance of scattered showers in the afternoon.

[00:06:53]Thursday, things look a little drier, but those hazy skies kick in. Slight chance of showers on Friday, but mostly sunny skies are going to dominate for the next week in Twin Falls. No triple digit days in this 7-day forecast for Twin Falls. However, for Boise, it is a different story. Chance for showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Possibilities of some non-severe thunderstorms, but mostly the threat for Boise would be some scattered showers. Triple digit temperatures expected Thursday through Saturday. It will be a very hot end of the work week and lead into the weekend.

[00:07:26]Starting Sunday, we might cool down just a few degrees for a couple days before warming back up again later in the next work week.

[00:07:34]Thanks so much for tuning into this First Alert Weather Extended Forecast.

[00:07:38]We'll catch you next time.