Repeat Memorial Day Weekend Forecast?

Added: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Hello and welcome to Cascadia Mountain Weather. We're heading up on Memorial Day weekend and we're looking at a eerily similar forecast to last year's Memorial Day weekend. If you remember, we had two nice days um followed by rain on Memorial Day itself. And we're looking at actually a pretty similar forecast this year. This is a photo taken from Memorial Day weekend last year on a 3-day traverse we did in the North Cascades. We ended up finishing in the rain on our last day.

[00:00:25]So, we're going to take a look at recent snowfall. Last weekend was a pretty potent May snowstorm. The volcanoes and a lot of high areas in the North Cascades um got 18 plus in, you know, like Paradise snow depth actually increased by 18 in and the snow levels dropped quite low. We saw sizable accumulations down to 3 or 4K and even briefly there was snow in Pacwood at 1,000 ft. Um that's certainly some of the lowest snow I've ever seen in May.

[00:00:59]So all that fresh snow, you know, at this point in the year, it can't do that much to help our sad snow pack. So this is from uh a week ago and we can compare that or this is from today and we can compare that to previously a week ago.

[00:01:16]Um you can see the percentages are relatively similar. Um so it it didn't really help that much. you know, this sort of snowfall falling on bare ground melts out very fast and um you know, in the snowier place is just like 2 ft of snow doesn't really make up for a bad season. Um easy pass in the North Cascades which was doing well through a lot of the winter and then we had you know a pretty warm midappril into early May. Uh it bumped up you know one or two inches of snow water equivalent. Um, so basically in the last like week, we haven't lost lost any snow, which is great because usually the snow pack is melting pretty fast at this point.

[00:01:56]This is uh snow depth and you can see we're really in the sea star pattern right now. There's not much snow in the central Cascades. So between Mount Reineer and Swami Pass, there's basically nothing left. Um, even in between, you know, Squam US 2, there's not that much. The Olympics are almost fully melted out. um really concentrated around the north cascades and the volcanoes. You can see that areas like Washington Pass in the northeast corner actually is still a pretty good snowpack and there's still snow like uh at the road at Washington Pass, which is better than actually we've had in past years, but that was really the bright star this winter, the Washington Pass in the the Pate and the Northeast Mountains. So, um you know, there's still definitely skiing opportunities. I think areas, you know, west of the crest and the volcanoes, like they got a lot of snow last weekend. Um, and we definitely could still see some snow that snow transitioning. Um, but areas further east of the crest are more likely to be closer to corn this weekend.

[00:02:55]>> Yeah. So, let's look at the weather. As Kyle mentioned, it's going to be quite similar to last year. And so, we'll look at what that actually means. This is starting at 5,000 ft as I like to do, just looking at kind of how our temperatures are going to change. The red areas are temperatures above normal.

[00:03:10]The blue areas are temperatures below normal. Um, and we are getting into right about tonight. So, this is looking right now. And you can see that as we go through Thursday and into Friday, we have some more than normal temperatures over much of western Washington, the Cascades. Maybe a couple degrees C, maybe 5 degrees Fahrenheit. Um, nothing crazy warm, pretty standard for this time of year. As we get into more of Saturday, you can see those temperatures bump up a little bit. Um, and this is kind of late Friday into Saturday. And then we start seeing, especially kind of on the Cascades, the western Cascades, some cooler temperatures starting to move in. Friday is probably going to be the warmest day. Um, and then it will kind of gradually cool down until our storm arrives on Monday. So, this is we can see as we get into Sunday and Monday, you can see this colder air kind of bringing in. Now, this colder air is still not that cold. It's only a couple degrees below normal. And so, that means that it's right around freezing at 5,000 ft. Um, but it will kind of push in and bring some stormier conditions to end this holiday weekend. Um, now one question that is still up in the air is exactly when this storm is going to arrive and when the precipitation is going to come in. So what I wanted to highlight is this is a model run. This is the American model run, the GFS and this is looking this is the most recent one that came out today um just a couple hours ago. And this is looking at Sunday and you can see this precipitation kind of moving in up on Vancouver Island. is going to be a wet kind of Sunday into Monday. And the question is when does it arrive? This shows it arriving kind of in the 10 to maybe 5 or 11 to 5 uh 11:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. time frame on Monday.

[00:05:00]Um but there's a little bit of disagreement with our model. So if we switch over to the European model, we can see that this really doesn't show the precipitation or I mean it shows it like around the same time but a little bit later. Um, so like it has been fluctuating a little bit. I think we're going to end up seeing probably that like around noon is when that ends up moving in on Monday, maybe a little bit may later, maybe towards like the early afternoon, depending on where you are.

[00:05:30]Another thing to note is that it will be coming from the north and west. And so the further east and the further south you are, the more likely you are to stay drier on Memorial Day itself. Let's go a little bit more into the details. This is looking at 3 hours based off of the American model. And one thing that I wanted to point out is there is a slight chance of showers in the western Cascades and Olympics tomorrow. Now, I'm not seeing a lot of support for this, so this might end up just being some kind of clouds gathering around the higher summits. Um, a little bit of like convective um clouds before the end of the day on Friday, but just be aware of that if you're getting an early start on Memorial Day. And then those clear up and Saturday looks gorgeous. Sunday looks gorgeous as well. Um, and then you can see this precipitation starting to move in. And this is from an earlier model run, but you can see that this has precipitation moving in even as early as like 8 7 or 8 a.m. on Monday. I think that's a little bit earlier than it actually is going to happen, but also sometimes that precipitation does move in a little bit earlier than forecast.

[00:06:35]If we look at kind of our accumulated precipitation, we can see that by the end of Monday, we could see a decent amount of rain in the mountains. Maybe maybe up to an inch, maybe even 2 in. Um the European models a little bit less um sure there's a little bit less rain than that, but in general, it's going to be heavier towards the Olympics and towards the north Cascades with lighter amounts to the east like normal. But even the east side should see a little bit of precipitation by this is looking through 5:00 am Tuesday. Um so kind of most of it's going to fall during that evening Monday likely. Um I brought up our point forecast, the National Weather Service point forecast for up at Washington Pass. Now the thing to remember that Washington or that the North Cascades Highway still is closed from the west side. So they're hoping to have that open by the end of June is the most recent update, but it is still closed.

[00:07:31]If you're coming out here, you are going to have to come from the east side. We can see that temperatures are pretty warm on Friday, pretty similar on Saturday, and then start to cool off with a slight chance of snow as we get more towards Memorial Day and a little bit later that week. And that is because our snow levels are going to be dropping. So, this is that big storm or that decently sized storm coming in. You can see that snow levels or freezing levels are going to be kind of in that 9 to 10,000 foot range, maybe even up towards 11,000 ft. Um, and then as we move into uh early Monday, mid Monday, they're going to start dropping. And by early Tuesday, they might drop kind of to their lowest extent about 5,000 ft in the north, maybe 6,000 ft in the south.

[00:08:14]Um, so if you are out on Monday and at elevation, you might see certainly we'll you'll see rain, but you might even see a little bit of snow if you're high enough. Um, I wanted to uh bring this up just to show some of the clouds as well that are going to be around. And so as we move into Friday, you can see kind of these clouds build um hanging out here.

[00:08:39]This is based off our European model run. And then Saturday, we're going to see a little bit of marine layer in the morning towards the um waters before that kind of clears up as we get later in the day. So, that's something to be aware of is that there might be a bit of an inversion. You should be able to get up above it. Looks like that inversion should be probably in kind of the two to three to maybe 4,000 foot range. So, it shouldn't be too hard to get above it, but you might start in clouds, but it would be sun above it. Um, and then as we get into Sunday, you can see those clouds starting to build ahead of that storm front that moves in on Monday. So, not going to be wall-to-all sunshines, but it could make for some really nice photographic opportunities. Um, and then just reaching out towards the long term as we like to do at the to end of these things. There's no real strong kind of signal for anything going forward. You can see that it does look like it will be above average in kind of the one to two week time frame. Um, but we're towards the edge looks kind of that signals more focused in the northern tier of the country. Um, and no real strong storms coming through after this Memorial Day storm. It looks like after that maybe some showers and stuff like that. Um but we are getting towards June. We're getting towards that June gloom area where we don't see generally too heavy of rain, but we might see kind of clouds um before we really get in the heart of summer.

[00:10:05]>> Yeah. Well, thanks everyone for listening. help you enjoy your Memorial Day