Chris Temple: What We Can Expect of a Warsh-Led Fed?

本站添加: 2026-05-24

[00:00:11]Welcome to Turning Hard Times to Good Times. I'm your host, Jay Taylor. It is the 20th day of May, 2026.

[00:00:17]Really happy to have with me for the first time Chris Temple. He is the author of National Investor Newsletter.

[00:00:24]And I want Chris to give us an idea a little bit more about what he does. I've met up with him at conferences in the past. Um I've known him as a as a friend, but uh haven't been really that much aware of what he's doing. So I'm really happy to have Chris on. I really want to have him talk about uh the new Fed chairman. Um Mr. Wsh. And that's the main topic of the day. Uh but in any event, Chris, thank you so much for joining me.

[00:00:52]>> Well, thanks for inviting me, Jay. It's good to see you again. You know, like I say, um I'm not that familiar with what what you do. Um maybe just explain what you're doing now. I know you write a newsletter, >> right?

[00:01:05]>> Uh explain what you're doing and how people may avail themselves to your services.

[00:01:09]>> Well, sure. The the National Investor is a newsletter I've done under that name now for in our 31st year since the mid 90s.

[00:01:16]>> Uh so I've been doing it for a while.

[00:01:18]And um I do two things basically, Jay.

[00:01:21]Number one is I try and give people an understandable view of the big picture uh in the world. Like my motto says on the website, you can get information anywhere, but here you get knowledge.

[00:01:33]>> And particularly when it comes to the Federal Reserve and the macro situation, a lot of people are continually chasing their tail, responding to noise, responding to their own preconceived notions or the preconceived notions of their favorite uh gurus that they follow. and I just get down to the the basics and look at math, look at the system that we have, the fractional reserve banking system as it's technically called that the Fed presides over etc. And secondly, after giving people uh you know an actionable and understandable big picture view, we craft investment portfolios for people both asset allocation, how much to be here, how much to be there, uh how much to be in metals, how much to be in energy, how much to be in bonds, how much to hide under the mattress as the case may be from time to time, uh depending on the big picture of things.

[00:02:25]So I I do both of those things. I also have my own podcast called Your Money Today, which I resurrected recently. Uh that was used to be the name of my newsletter before it changed the name to the National Investor back in the mid 90s and it was a network radio program I had for a lot of years as well. And so that uh is is out there too for people.

[00:02:46]I I sometimes though uh am infrequent when I do my own podcast because I'm on so many other ones including now yours that I don't want to overwhelm people or be too redundant but uh but this is an important subject and I'm glad you reached out about Wars to help people understand exactly what's coming with this new Fed chairman.

[00:03:05]>> All right. Well, Warish is coming in.

[00:03:08]The the other guy is going out or at least on the sidelines. I guess he's staying in the Fed. probably wants to keep his opinions there and and retain some relevance. But uh how do you view the markets, the global economy and the markets now uh as Mr. Walsh takes over and then maybe we can talk about how his policies or perceived policies will impact the future?

[00:03:30]>> Well, you know what he's stepping into.

[00:03:32]The last time you and I saw one another in person was about this time last year in New York. We went out to dinner with Laura Stein and a bunch of other people >> and you and I and a couple of the others ended up doing a little impromptu seminar discussion during dinner >> on the theme of the end of financial repression >> and that's a phrase people need to have under their belt when we get to the talk about war because for a long time now and Japan did it for a long time now they can't do it anymore. The US did it for a while with quantitative easing and so forth. We have had monetary leadership and politicians who benefit from it >> have turned the world into a very unnatural place. It was not natural for interest rates to be zero >> or less than zero in so many places. But when you have an open-ended debt regimen in the world, which we do, and every nation on the planet does, you know, for the most part, as time goes on, the level of debts increase exponentially.

[00:04:36]The interest costs begin to increase and you get to the point where the volume of these debts is just so great, Jay, that you can't any longer keep a lid on the level of interest rates at some point just because of the sheer volume. Mhm.

[00:04:52]>> Sovereign governments have to start paying more toward what what's real >> uh if they want to attract capital, >> right?

[00:05:00]>> You know, when I first got into this industry way back in 1979, we weren't quite at our first $1 trillion of debt yet. We're now up to near 40.

[00:05:09]>> That's >> uh President Trump last year. uh for all of this talk about Doge and cutting the government and so forth, we ended up with a worse outcome >> when Ronald Reagan was president, gave us the Grace Commission and and threw away all of its recommendations.

[00:05:26]>> Right?

[00:05:26]>> You know, Trump's one big beautiful baseball, hot dogs, MAGA, apple pie, and the flag bill last year is a base case adds 20 trillion more in debt over the next decade. So there's nothing that's been cut. The size of government hasn't been cut. Uh and that's the world that that Kevin Wars is stepping into. So in the recent past, the bond market and the uh famous bond market vigilantes, you remember, I know that Henry Coffman was the one who coined that term >> once upon a time. Uh they're punishing now the government. And you know, every now and then during Powell's chairmanship of of the Fed, when uh the president would be whining that he wasn't cutting interest rates and we should have the lowest interest rates on world, I would say to him, well, Mr. President, if you want to know why interest rates can't come down, look in the mirror.

[00:06:16]>> Exactly.

[00:06:16]>> You're the guy that just gave us 20 trillion more in debt over the next 10 years uh with your one big beautiful whatever it is.

[00:06:23]>> So that's the world that Wars is stepping into. And uh my belief Jay is that we're going to see two phases to out of necessity in both instances to the war chairmanship which will essentially mirror the two phases of Paul Vulkar's chairmanship back when.

[00:06:41]>> Uhhuh. Okay. So we're seeing the bond vigilantes come to life a little bit now. I believe, you know, we're seeing a a 30-year rate of >> 56 or.17, something like that, 10 year rate of 4.6 or so. Uh, a war going on that has to be paid for one way or another.

[00:07:04]>> Um, and you have this enormous amount of debt. We're paying more now for interest on the debt than we are for defense.

[00:07:11]>> Yeah.

[00:07:11]>> Um, and and you just don't see where it can end. And I don't say I, you know, I recall a discussion I had with then Congressman Ron Paul and Mark Faber at a dinner in San Francisco. This would be in the late 1990s. And I asked both of them, do you think we could ever have a Paul Vulker again? Could we ever have a Fed chairman that would come in and do the, you know, and administer the hard medicine that we all took in 1980. And both of them thought unequivocally that was that was impossible. That could not happen. And now it's gotten a magnitude worse.

[00:07:46]>> Yeah.

[00:07:46]>> So, how in the world is this going to work its way out, Chris? Because I I don't know what level of interest rates would have to be reached to finance the debt. I mean, it would be there would be nothing left for any kind of private sector money. It seems like all the capital would have to go to pay. I mean, what it would take 20, 30, 40%. you know, Vulkar 17 and a half% was my first mortgage in in Queens, New York, Mrs. Taylor and I, and we weren't allowed to prepay for five years. So, even though rates went down, we were still stuck with that 70.

[00:08:20]Well, that's allows us to get a a house that was a lot cheaper than we could have gotten if rates were low. And we did very well with it in the years to come because, as you know, we had a bond bull market then from that point on in >> those days are over. I think you'd agree that the uh that we're in a probably in a secular bare market now for US treasuries. Do you see that?

[00:08:41]>> I I do.

[00:08:42]>> You agree? Okay. So, rates are going to go up. Of course, a lot of the people, the other countries that allowed us to live beyond our means for so long are now saying to our dollar. They don't really want to own dollars and treasuries anymore. China, Japan for its own reasons. I don't know. So, how does this thing really play out, Chris? Now, we're seeing with rates rising, gold has been a little weak and silver over the last few days. Yet, I remember in the 1970s when rates are going up, up and up, and so was gold. Where do you think gold is headed now in this environment?

[00:09:19]>> Uh, well, first off, the weekend that the Iran war started, Jay.

[00:09:24]>> Uhhuh.

[00:09:25]>> Uh, and that first Sunday night, the futures market opened and there was a brief pop higher in gold. I told people, I sent out a note and I said, "Don't trust that because gold is going to go down near term."

[00:09:36]>> Uhhuh.

[00:09:37]>> It's going to go down because the president with this war has so trashed the economies in various parts of the world that now you're seeing central banks, a few of them, start to sell gold out of necessity.

[00:09:49]>> Oh yeah.

[00:09:50]>> Economies are going to weaken. Okay.

[00:09:52]You're not going to have the surplus of foreign exchange reserves, trade surpluses, and things like that. And don't forget that has been the biggest driver for the last couple of years more than investment flows or anything has been central bank buying. I'm not saying it's going away.

[00:10:08]>> Okay, don't misunderstand. But it's less of a tailwind than it's been.

[00:10:13]>> The other element of gold is that >> to the extent that investment money finally did start coming back in earnest in the last 12 to 18 months.

[00:10:24]>> Mhm. which finally even started to raise the universe of of uh equities. Yes. And precious metals.

[00:10:31]>> Yes.

[00:10:31]>> That was predicated on the same thesis, Jay, as the record highs in the stock market. And that is we're going to get to 2026. President Trump's going to nominate his sock puppet for the Federal Reserve. He's going to lower interest rates. We're going to be swimming in money. Uh negative yields, all the rest of this kind of thing. And that's going to keep all these things rising. That thesis has been turned on its head.

[00:10:57]Really, even before the Iran war, inflation was starting to tick up again.

[00:11:01]>> Yes.

[00:11:02]>> And though it wasn't Jerome Powell leading this, a lot of the members of the the board of governors and the voting members at the Fed were starting to get cold feet over the idea that the Fed really can lower interest rates further. I'm sure some of them privately regret cutting them at all last year.

[00:11:20]Uh you and I have both been around long enough and we've seen these charts >> in the 1970s.

[00:11:27]Arthur Burns, who was the Jerome Powell of his day, he was Richard Nixon's Fed chairman.

[00:11:33]>> Yeah.

[00:11:33]>> Uh as soon as Nixon took us off the gold standard, he started printing dollars.

[00:11:38]The dollar's valuation went down, etc. Um and he started to belatedly raise interest rates, but then he stopped. He got cold feet. Part of it was because of the Arab oil embargo and the oil shock.

[00:11:50]He wanted to try and cushion the blow of that, right? Nixon wanted him to have an easier monetary policy when he ran for reelection in 1972.

[00:11:59]Okay. What was the result of that? He took his foot off the break.

[00:12:03]>> Yeah.

[00:12:04]>> And let inflation accelerate again.

[00:12:06]>> Yes.

[00:12:07]>> To the point that it it it was worse in the latter part of the 70s than it was prior. That's exactly the trajectory that we're on right now.

[00:12:15]>> Okay. And so that people need to understand and and I I think today >> when people understand exactly what Worsh is going to be forced to do in his early days that's going to take the sheen for a while off of everything. I don't care if it's precious metals, copper, industrial metals, the stock market belatedly. The stock market should be doing in the last several weeks what metals have been doing.

[00:12:40]>> Yeah.

[00:12:41]>> And it hasn't been. But that's coming.

[00:12:43]>> That's coming. Okay. So you see an equity market you wouldn't be piling into equities. What about what? So might this be an opportunity though if we get a a real correction in gold and silver shares to to pick up some? I mean as you know the gold even at 400 I don't know what your forecast is for gold prices but at four 4,300 or wherever they are now these major miners are making money hand over fist. So >> Oh well they are. Look, long long term >> long term, there's zero question in my mind that we're going much higher still than what we saw at the peak.

[00:13:19]>> Near-term, we we're already at my first target of 42 to 4,400. We're going to be retesting that. Worst case scenario, you look at the charts to where gold broke out last summer in a big way, we can go all the way back down to 3500.

[00:13:32]>> Okay? If Worsh comes in and really starts to hit the brakes, threatens to raise interest rates and makes very clear that he is not going to let inflation run. So, we can still have an interlude between now and then.

[00:13:47]>> Mhm.

[00:13:47]>> Um, when we see metals prices go down further, but what I'm telling folks to do right now, we took a lot of money off the table at the highs for gold and silver. a lot of my favorite companies.

[00:13:58]We cut back on some that we had five and eight and 10 baggers on in some cases, >> but I'm staying with core positions on all of them. And I'm actually adding companies here and there because there are a lot of good stories out there. And this is this was comical almost in in a way, Jay. And it shows you how fickle generalist investors are when it comes to metals because they were all piling in the gold when it was over 5,000. They started a piling of silver and it got to 90 or 100 bucks and then they run for the hills when they realize they they're getting whipsawed >> and plus they still have the play toy of AI stocks and and then of course of energy and fertilizer. They're going to be back. But what's tantalizing right now if you're a long-term investor >> is that a lot of really good exploration companies got cut in half.

[00:14:47]>> Yes, indeed.

[00:14:47]>> From their high.

[00:14:48]>> I know. Don't I know?

[00:14:49]>> Just stupid. Just stupid. And so long term there's still a lot of incredible bargains out there. And as you pointed out, a lot of producers um you know there's even if gold goes back to 3500, let alone where it is right now, they're swimming in money.

[00:15:05]>> They're still making money because all-in costs are 2,000 bucks or 2,200 or something >> on average. Sure.

[00:15:11]>> No, they're still making a lot of money.

[00:15:14]So I I would think that maybe right now the response uh towards gold has been people don't really expect inflation to continue rising. Uh and maybe Kevin Walsh um my understanding Chris of his policies listening to an interview that he did recently he's really wanting to run the printing press quieter. He believes very much in a um in a productivity bull market and in a lot of the maybe AI and other factors coming into play. Uh less regulation under the Trump administration compared to the Democratic administration certainly is making a difference in the mining sector and other sectors. And there is some reason to to believe I was watching an interview with Adam Tagert recently somebody that tracks the transportation sector and he pointed out that there definitely is a boom going on in manufacturing now that there that this many of Trump's ideas are working in terms of reshoring manufacturing mining and so forth. Look, he reduces the regulation in mining. I know how much easier that makes for companies to go out and he's even being very aggressive with critical metals and on companies that have some critical metals they you know they're getting through and getting their permits more quickly. So there definitely is something to that side of it I think. So W seems to be believe that he he says we need to cut back in the money printing but don't do it like Vulkar did it. You can't do it like Vulker did it. That's the message.

[00:16:42]>> But he says that Congress and the Treasury have to understand that there is a cost to the government spending money because what's happened up until now with easy monetary policies, zero interest rates for example, that government said, "Oh, there's no end to what we can spend." And then lo and behold, the citizens, the voters believe the same thing is true. So by golly, if this guy this this guy running for the Senate isn't going to give me a free lunch, this one will.

[00:17:07]>> Sure.

[00:17:08]>> And there we go. So, we are off to the party and it's just everybody's having a grand old time until sometime. Kaboom, kaboom. And I'm wondering if we're meeting and we're getting closer to that kaboom moment now because I don't know with 5% 30-year. What's that going to do to mortgages if it goes up and up and up? I I don't know.

[00:17:26]>> Yeah. I mean, look, we it wasn't that many months ago that we were starting to dip back below 6% on a conventional 30-year mortgage. This morning we're at six and three/4ers on still heading higher.

[00:17:40]>> Uh this whole affordability thing that the president has been trying to sell is uh not going over well with Joe Sixpack and Sally Soccer Mom at the moment. Nor should it go over well with them. Yeah.

[00:17:50]>> Um but you know, worse to his credit and and and I said this right when the president first nominated him. Um, on paper, this is not the guy that you want to put in there >> if you want to have, you know, a sock puppet as, uh, Senator Pocahontas Warren called him in the hearing and all the rest of this kind of thing. This is a guy who believes he even said recently again in a practical monitoriism, right?

[00:18:16]>> And again, he he to his credit has called out the Fed for making a mess of things. Yeah. you know, Jerome Powell in eight years. You know, I I mentioned earlier that we're about to hit 40 trillion in debt probably before election day.

[00:18:32]>> 18 of that is Paulo's doing.

[00:18:36]>> Yes.

[00:18:37]>> Okay. And and here's a guy who, you know, and and and you may have seen some of the cartoons that my my cartoonist has put out on this. You know, I um with Ben Berneni in the wake of the 2008 crash, we we learned what helicopter Ben was. Uh dropped the helicopter money, >> right?

[00:18:56]>> Well, Jerome Powell became cargo plane J.

[00:19:01]>> Okay. And this is a guy who created something like 40% of all of the dollars ever brought into being in 250 years were under this guy's watch.

[00:19:12]>> Mhm. And yet time after time in his press conferences, he gets in front of the press gaggle after an FOMC meeting and he pretends like inflation. Well, it's a supply shock. It's little green men from Mars. It's the Russians. It's now it's the Iranians. It's whoever. No, it's you.

[00:19:28]>> Yeah. It's the >> accommodating fiscal profleacy and being the chief enabler of $2 trillion deficits every year. So on paper, Wor is against that. He voted against that when he was at the Fed in the wake of the financial crisis, >> right?

[00:19:46]>> But here again, as I said at the outset, Jay, that all sounds great and I don't doubt that Wars believes this and wants to get back to it. But what can he do right now? He's got to do something immediately.

[00:19:59]>> Yeah.

[00:20:00]>> To signal to the bond market that I am not going to do what Arthur Burns did and let inflation have a second act that's worse than the first one.

[00:20:09]>> Right. So you clean up some of the mess that Paul did. He's limited as to how much he do he can do that. He sure can't raise interest rates to double digits because that would blow up everything.

[00:20:20]>> But he's got to say or do something to signal to the bond market that I'm not going to let this get out of hand.

[00:20:27]>> And that that when he does that, and he will in some form, that's when finally the stock market's going to join some of these other asset classes and come back down a little closer to earth.

[00:20:37]>> Right. Well, I'm just wondering if this tick up in interest rates isn't already a wash effect that the markets may already, you know, if they if they've seen his interviews and have thought about it, smart money is saying what you're saying, I think, and that is lighten up on some of these assets, there's going to be a better time to buy them later. And then the other thing, Chris, is that the equity markets in general because of the AI stocks, the high-tech stocks are really at nosebleleed levels. We've never seen anything hardly ever seen anything more overvalued than some of these things.

[00:21:08]There's bound to be at some point >> uh and I and I'm hearing a lot of the in a lot of the revenues that are being reported are circular revenues. That is these companies are selling to each other >> very much >> like new money coming into the sector.

[00:21:22]It's just circulating. Uh so you have to reminds me a little bit of the Enron uh thing that was going on in those days.

[00:21:29]it was sort of a financing and then they report great earnings and the market applauds it and goes out and of course we have passive investing now Chris you know as we've had over years more and more and more so as long as there's a lot of money slloshing around in the system it it finds its way into people's pockets their 401ks or whatever and it goes right in to the you know passively and then so it isn't as if people are you know really trying to make sense in the terms of you know fundament fundamentals, earnings and balance sheet and things like that. People aren't looking at those things too much anymore >> and they're not looking at the money supply. That's the point that I from Walsh is that >> he says at the Fed there's hardly any monitors. They're all Keynesians and so they don't even they don't the word money isn't even used at the Fed. So it's sort of sort of crazy. So I guess on balance and let me just ask you so so intermediate precious metals probably a little bearish on that right now. I'm I'm neutral to bearish on on pretty much all metals. I mean, there there are one-off stories where you've got massive supply issues. Uh I still like gold energy. I don't think we've seen anywhere near the highs in crude oil yet. Natural gas is a sleeper. I mean, I you want to buy good natural gas producers all day uh in North America, US and Canada, both with as cheap as natural gas is because structurally those prices are not going to last. But everything else, you know, you you want to you don't want to be investing in a sector. You want to invest, as I said a minute ago, with the precious metals companies story by story right now that that you know, companies you can buy very cheap that may not go up next week or next month, but are just well priced for what they have. Uh and again assuming as I do and I know you do that down the road uh we're going to see much higher prices still because the these debts aren't going away and they're only going to get worse >> and they're going to be monetized to an extent. The question is how how aggressively and maybe less aggressively under under WASH.

[00:23:30]>> Um so in terms of what about uh what about the base metals? I mean copper do you think okay so do you see a recession? Do you think we can get through this without a recession? And if we have a recession, you could make the case that that copper and some of these base metals might not be a good place to be either.

[00:23:48]>> Near-term, my view is much the same.

[00:23:50]Again, you've got to look at them story by story. I've got a few companies on my recommended list. I loved I don't care what the copper price does in the next year or two. I like them for the long term, but the unfortunate fact is that uh and I'll be seeing Mike Mclo the end of this week, you know, your friend and mine. And we're going to compare notes about this. I know he's bearish on the base metals because he thinks we're having a recession. He and I differ on where how fast I think Treasury yields are going to come down because I don't think they're going to come down right away. But but look, when we have a recession and 2008's a great example, I don't care what it was, everything went down when you had a scramble for liquidity and everybody had to unwind shorts, unwind leverage, and buy back dollars. Y >> okay, so near-term, the US dollar is going higher. most everything else is going lower. Uh Wars again has got to I I think he I think he needs to engineer something like that >> to again put the bond vigilantes back away. And don't forget that if he signals that he is not going to let inflation run hot, >> that he is going to if they have to, they're going to raise interest rates.

[00:25:02]And people don't always understand this, Jay. long-term yields will start to come down.

[00:25:08]>> Right. Right.

[00:25:09]>> They're they're running hot now because the market is going to test him.

[00:25:13]>> Mhm.

[00:25:13]>> Are you really serious about taking the Fed out of this, you know, the the big the butcher with his big thumb on his scale?

[00:25:21]>> Okay. Are you really serious about that?

[00:25:23]Are you going to really clamp down on inflation? All right. And again, as you and I agree, he's limited to how much he can do it. He can't raise rates probably as much as they need to be, otherwise everything blows up. He's got to try to be a little gentle, but he's going to go in that direction. And when he does, I do think that a lot of the markets repric. I've said for a while that the markets have have still not come to grips with the fact that inflation and interest rates both are going to stay chronically higher, >> right? Everybody, for whatever stupid reason, everybody was was buying Jerome Pal's nonsense. Oh, our 2% inflation target is in psych. You haven't hit it in five or six years.

[00:26:06]>> Yeah.

[00:26:06]>> Okay. If you average it out, your inflation rates been double, right?

[00:26:12]>> And that's by the Fed's own massaged numbers that are not real.

[00:26:17]>> Yeah.

[00:26:17]>> So, uh, so look, he's got to get control of that. What's going to be interesting long term, Jay, is to see to what extent Worsh has some success in working with the Treasury Department, >> right?

[00:26:31]>> To find some longerterm solution. I mean, this is a guy who worked among other things very closely with Stanley Ducken Miller.

[00:26:38]>> Yes.

[00:26:39]>> To put together one of the big stable coins out there.

[00:26:43]>> Yes. Uhhuh.

[00:26:44]>> Behind the scenes. And if there's a if there's a at least a partial answer to this rhetorical question, why did Trump pick this guy?

[00:26:52]>> Yeah.

[00:26:53]>> It's because Scott Bessant told him to do it, >> right?

[00:26:56]>> And it's because Scott Bessant and Worsh and some of the people around them know that they've got to come up with some kind of at least half viable gimmick >> to paper over and enable the continued increase in debt down the road. stable coins will be part of the answer to that.

[00:27:17]>> I don't know if it's going to be successful. That's going to be a work in progress. But it's interesting that as many times as Wars has discussed this early 1950s relationship between the Fed and the Treasury.

[00:27:31]>> Yes.

[00:27:31]>> Nobody asked him about this point blank.

[00:27:34]>> Mhm.

[00:27:35]>> In his confirmation hearing. But this is going to be something that bears watching because the the correlary today to the time back then, you know, we had yield curve control in the US in the immediate aftermath of World War II.

[00:27:51]>> Mhm. Mhm.

[00:27:52]>> We had it for two reasons. Number one, because the debt to GDP ratio because of all the war expenses and then the Marshall Plan, etc., we had an over 100% debt to GDP ratio.

[00:28:04]>> Right? Number two is a public policy imperative. It sold well. This idea of artificially compressing yields across the curve because this enabled returning GIS to have a cheap mortgage, get GI loans at a low rate, etc. All right.

[00:28:22]Then in the early 50s, the Fed and the Treasury sat down together and said, "Okay, we can't do this forever.

[00:28:30]So let's divorce to some extent the Fed and the Treasury on policy. The Fed will run monetary policy, but the Treasury will run fiscal policy." And in those days, you still had the discipline, the social structure, the culture and everything where they looked at deficit spending as an aberration caused by the war.

[00:28:53]>> Yeah.

[00:28:53]>> The federal government tightened its belt and that allowed for nature to take its course and keep interest rates low because now you didn't have the government is such a voracious eater of credit in the private markets.

[00:29:08]>> Yeah.

[00:29:09]Worsh would love to go back to that. He said this repeatedly. Yes.

[00:29:13]>> That the Fed should not be in a business of enabling ever greater debt. The government should be forced like Paul Vulkar forced the government in the 70s.

[00:29:22]You know, he he made the sure the government was punished when it ran deficits. He didn't ride to the rescue.

[00:29:28]>> Right. Exactly.

[00:29:30]>> He would like to do that. All right.

[00:29:32]It's not as real today because there's nobody in sight today >> that's going to uh you know every time you see somebody who wants to reduce the size of government like Tom Massie you know the Trump and the and the swamp get against him >> he can't have you here.

[00:29:48]>> No you're spoiling our fun >> right away. Go away. So I think Chris I'm I'm thinking that maybe um >> that Bessant and and this guy might work together you know as a Treasury Secretary. Oh, they want to. I >> I think they will. And >> yeah, >> the other thing um when you mentioned stable coins and Rick Rule was talking about this the other day, I saw on an interview.

[00:30:11]>> Yeah.

[00:30:11]>> Uh there are stable coins that are back that have treasuries that are backed by treasuries and then there's gold stable coins and Rick was talking about just maybe just maybe gold can work its way back into some sort of of a disciplinary asset in the monetary system again. Any thoughts on that? That's a possibility and this is a work in progress because there's been a lot of different theories floated. One is that you know and it's not just gold but if you look at the productive capacity >> of the US or you look at the asset base of the US and particularly if Trump andor whoever follows him can get some more meaningful traction in reinvigorating our own manufacturing base and energy and minerals and stuff like that. Yeah.

[00:30:57]>> Then you're in a place where arguably, and this is just off talking off the top of my head, theoretically, Jay, of course, >> but theoretically, you could be in a place where we say, "Okay, we've set in motion the unlocking of x number of trillions of dollars worth of copper and tungsten and co and and gold and silver and lithium and all the rest of this stuff and natural gas." And so, we're going to come up with stable coins.

[00:31:25]>> Yeah. that reflect that wealth that we are now unlocking and those stable coins backed by these assets >> will be used now not just doing what Jerome Powell and Joe Biden did largely and you know print trillions of dollars so people can sit home and plan their computers during co no productive use for that increase of debt nothing it just terrible thing >> and that really is Paul's legacy I mean he has been the Arthur Burns of our time and he's going he's not going to history will not treat him well when they do a forensic on his chairmanship of the Fed.

[00:32:03]Um but if we can replace that then we buy some time even if the debt keeps going up you at least have some mumbo jumbo to justify >> this if you can get the markets to also believe and this is why the stock market I think has held up a lot of it's flimflam you accurately said where all this AI stuff it's just circular promises here you know and then President Trump goosees it even more you know ever the carnival barker and TV reality host that he is. Oh, we've got 18 gazillion dollars pledged to the U.

[00:32:39]No, you don't.

[00:32:40]>> Yeah.

[00:32:41]>> Okay. You think you do. Is it all going to be real? No. All right. But when the direction of stocks and especially the more speculative ones because of these announcements, it's been ever upward.

[00:32:53]That's the path of least resistance and everybody says, "Okay, the emperor really is wearing clothes and we'll, you know, tag along for the ride." At some point they'll figure out the emperor doesn't have any clothes. And you know I I'll tell you what worries me. And I and I've got my differences many of them with uh you know Trump the candidate versus Trump the president who in my opinion has been a lot worse than people thought we were getting in a lot of ways. But what happens to all of these Polyana attitudes, Jay, >> if we do get to November and the Republicans get their heads handed to him, >> um because the middle class goes out and votes their pocketbook.

[00:33:32]>> Yeah.

[00:33:33]>> Um you know, this is a guy who's who's never had lower approval ratings than he does right now.

[00:33:39]you know, and yet he gets out in front of the cameras and in his cabinet meetings like he's Kim Jong-un, he's dear leader and everybody's fawning over him. You know, they're all in a fantasy land and it's going to turn into a reality if the Republicans lose the House and or the Senate.

[00:33:54]>> Yeah.

[00:33:55]>> And the next two years, nothing productive is done, >> right?

[00:33:59]>> You you'll have you'll have investigations times 10 compared to Trump 1.0, >> right?

[00:34:05]>> Then what do we do?

[00:34:06]>> Yeah. Well, there'll be nothing. And then of course if uh you know if the other side gets in the White House, we'll probably go back to QE and also all kinds of other things that uh that I think have hamstrung us. Um right, I do know just sort of in summing up my understanding of War's view is uh quiet down the printing press. There' be some printing, but it's got to be slower so that people understand the government understands the Treasury understands that it's costly to spend money.

[00:34:34]Secondly, he seems to be much of a believer in uh in a in a growth of productivity and manufacturing and mining and so forth is happening with under this environment. Again, if we lose the you know because Trump has loosened up the regulatory framework and it's really helping companies to do well. If you go back to the other thing the way we had before, it just reverse everything. So, I think you're right about that.

[00:35:01]>> Yeah.

[00:35:01]>> So, anyway, I I don't know. I guess there's reason to be somewhat optimistic, Chris, but uh boy, we've got a lot of headwinds ahead of us. And I guess what you do in your newsletter is to try to help people >> know how to navigate how to how to how to live.

[00:35:17]>> Exactly. You know, and I tell people all the time, Jay, whether it's gold, whether it's bonds, whether it's the stock market or whatever, and I'm not right all the time. I never pretend to be. But the one thing that's imperative >> is that you don't get dogmatic on any one thing.

[00:35:32]>> Okay, Chris. Well, thank you very much for being with us, folks. That is it for today's show. Next week, I expect to have David Wolfen, the president, CEO of Aino Silver and Gold with me. Uh, keep your eye on the inbox for our announcements of our next guests. Until we meet again, goodbye and God's blessings to you.