Scott Ritter (clip): Europe Gives Russia An Excuse to Attack

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Well, uh just as, you know, they couldn't get more uh reckless, so we see that the out of uh Lithuania, they're making the comments that we should now put more pressure on the fortress uh Kaliningrad. Uh and this is again the Kaliningrad, you know, the the enclave, it has uh it's uh stuck here and severed from the rest of uh of the Russian Federation. But, this still hosts a million uh Russian civilians. They also host uh uh nuclear weapons.

[00:00:34]Uh but, we earlier on we had the the uh well, it's been a while now, but the US General uh Donahue making the point that, "Oh, we can take Kaliningrad."

[00:00:44]Uh all of this rhetoric is essentially about attacking uh Russia. I mean, how do you make sense of this? Because this is happening at the same time as the British now are trying to lead this uh naval group to confront the Russians. And I think it's quite well, that they want to if not put a full blockade, at least harass Russian ships in the Baltic Sea. So, we see the escalation at every at every level. Do Do you Do you see Kaliningrad possibly being a flash point or I mean, there's so many possible flash points now, I guess.

[00:01:24]I mean, it could be uh cuz we're we're talking about insanity. Um you know, I I publicly cautioned General Donahue, not that he would listen to me, but I said the quickest way to ensure that you um end up being marked with a stone at Arlington.

[00:01:42]Your body won't be recovered, but there'll be a stone at Arlington is to attack Kaliningrad.

[00:01:47]Cuz the Russians will instantly kill you, your command staff, and everybody affiliated with this attack. Um you know, it it's a stupid the the Estonians making similar things. You know, Latvians threatening um I tell you the quickest way to make Kaliningrad not an enclave is to attack Kaliningrad.

[00:02:07]Because we're going to see the Baltics become Russian again. And they'll become Russian overnight. Um You know, that's just the reality of it.

[00:02:15]Um if that's the game they want to play, Russia doesn't want to do this.

[00:02:20]Uh but you know, Russia's not going to yield on this point. Um and if it does become a flash point, it's a flash point that marks the total eradication of the Baltic states, which will be interesting because then what will NATO do?

[00:02:33]Nothing. They can do nothing. Uh the Baltics have always been this exposed appendage uh that you know, what is Sweden now going to commit suicide coming and save the Baltics? The Finns are going to make an attack on the Kola Peninsula and Vyborg to save the Baltics? No, because that would be the end of Finland. And that would be the end of Sweden. Um I mean, these nations joined a failing military alliance that has no political viability and zero military um capacity to meaningfully project power.

[00:03:05]I just don't understand you know, where is the commander of you know, NATO forces? Um and telling the military council to tell the yappy Baltic poodles to or Chihuahuas to shut up.

[00:03:18]I mean, because the the the the the the rhetoric is is fatal to uh NATO.

[00:03:26]If you want to have NATO totally collapse, show that Article 5 is absolutely meaningless.

[00:03:32]And the best way to show that Article 5 is absolutely meaningless is to provoke the Russians. What does the British fleet think they're going to do? Besides sink.

[00:03:41]I mean, it's it's it's it's stunning.

[00:03:43]They all believe Russia's bluffing.

[00:03:47]They all believe Russia's bluffing.

[00:03:50]I mean, they they they misunderstand patience and pragmatism for weakness.

[00:03:57]Yeah, no, I also heard the talks that, you know, Medvedev's putting on a show, same as Karaganov, that is just putting on a show. They really respect the, you know, they really deterred by NATO, but, you know, I don't think this is all for show as well. I've I've been in Karaganov's office just one-on-one before 2022 when he made the point as well that he doesn't believe that, as you said before, that the US would risk New York for Tallinn or something. So, it's not going to happen. So, I I Yeah, I think this overconfidence that the Russians can be deterred, that they wouldn't dare. I I think that they were cautious because it would be a reckless thing to attack a NATO country, but they kind of put the Russians in a position where it's Yeah, even more reckless not to do anything. And, you know, the the idea you mentioned now that the Russians could take the Baltic states. I'm thinking a little bit about George Kennan. He gave this interview with the New York Times back in '98 when he he made the point that uh you know, all the push people pushing for NATO expansionism, at that some point there the Russians are going to have to push back. And he made the prediction at that point that the NATO expanders will essentially say, "Ah, look, the Russians are always been imperialist. That's just how they are."

[00:05:15]And he was making the point that it's flawed. They will respond to what we're doing now. That was his main argument. I feel now is the same thing, that is the the Baltic states, you know, for the past 4 years been saying, "Oh, the Russians might march on, you know, Paris or you know, after done with Ukraine, they'll invade the Latvia." You know, I know I always made the point that that's ridiculous. No No one in Russia wants to go into Latvia.

[00:05:38]But, uh it's now it doesn't so look so ridiculous anymore. I don't I don't think they want to annex that territory.

[00:05:45]Sounds like a mess. But, I do think that they will strike it probably.

[00:05:49]I mean, I think we crossed that boundary as well. This There's this no coming back from this.

[00:05:55]Even if we stopped here and pulled back a bit, you know, but but we we're going to continue to plow forward.

[00:06:02]Yeah, I I I agree. I mean, you know, which which one of the probably is it Estonia that has the large Russian population or Latvia?

[00:06:11]Uh they both have about well, a significant I think 20% or they have at least this is the those countries, but they also have a they also had the strictest strictest laws where the ethnic Russians or Russian speakers, they can't hold a government office, they don't get the voting rights, so they're kind of second-rate citizens.

[00:06:34]And um the whole argument when they were joining the joining NATO and the EU in 2004 was so Russia should be happy because uh you know, the EU NATO stands for human rights, so now the Russians should be reassured that the Russian minority will get rights, but uh again, we're now 22 years later, this there's no nothing has been done. They don't Yeah, so >> [sighs] >> Yeah, no, I think um um Well, there's a higher concentration I think in a in a specific region in Estonia, so if they would at Narva, but yeah.

[00:07:09]I I just think that, you know, they should study the history of the special military operation and understand the difference between Rossiya and Rossiyane um and between Slavic Russian people and the Russian nation and understand that in Estonia, it's both Rossiyane and Rossiya and you're playing with fire. I mean, this it you're giving the Russians the excuse to do something that otherwise they wouldn't do.

[00:07:41]Um Yeah, I I'm Again, I'm um I'm nervous. I don't know about you. I'm a little nervous. I don't want to test the Karaganov's thesis.

[00:07:52]I don't want to test it because um I know the outcome.

[00:07:58]I believe Karaganov's right. The United States will not sacrifice Boston or New York for Poznan or another city.

[00:08:05]But the United States can't allow Russia to uh create a new paradigm of nuclear deterrence where you have one power not only possessing nuclear weapons, but having demonstrated the capacity to use nuclear weapons. Uh the other power can't sit there passively and and be the same way. They must use nuclear weapons, too.

[00:08:24]And then the United States now has carte blanche to use nuclear weapons against Iran.

[00:08:28]Um and we will.

[00:08:30]Um because the precedent's been set by Russia. And once we begin these exchanges, it doesn't stop until there's a general exchange and we're all dead. Um this is the flaw. I call it the fallacy the Karaganov fallacy. Um I don't want to test it.

[00:08:47]I mean, you know, he Sergey Karaganov is a man I respect. I'm sure you respect him as well. His intellectual capacity is is uh is prodigious and uh somewhat intimidating sometimes. So, you know, I I I don't want to claim that I'm smarter than he is, but on the issue of nuclear war and nuclear weapons, I am experienced. And um my gut feeling in as a experienced analyst, you sort of go with your gut feeling on on occasion, is that uh there's no containing nuclear weapons once they're used. Once they're used, whether it takes months, years, a decade, eventually we're going to have a general nuclear exchange that takes out all of humanity. And I'd prefer that not to happen.

[00:09:31]Um which means I you know, I prefer no Russian conventional strikes. I prefer peace. I'd prefer sanity. Russia. But the West is far you know is is basically punted on that one. So, here we are.

[00:09:45]And I also make that point as well.

[00:09:47]What's going to kill us all is the delusion of escalation control once we be well do what we're doing now. The The belief that well, we can just escalate a little bit more, a little bit more. If the Russians don't care for it, maybe we'll take a little step back and then push forward again. It's I think this is the dangerous solution.

[00:10:04]We're going to lose it very quickly control over over this. And that should be the lesson of Iran as well, by the way, that uh you you can't you can't go back to status quo essentially.

[00:10:13]Marco Rubio needs to learn that lesson.

[00:10:15]Um but cuz he said, I wish we could go back to status Barbara Tuchman's book um uh Was it March of Folly uh that she wrote or August I think March of Folly. Um about basically the the the summer of 1914.

[00:10:34]Nobody believed that They all believed it was containable that it wasn't that you just have a little conflict with Serbia. It wasn't going to be a big deal. Uh don't worry about it. Next thing you know, you have a world war. It just got out of control.

[00:10:46]Um and I think that's where we're at right now.

[00:10:49]I mean, Trump's in desperate you know, one of the problems we have here is that uh Trump is not a rational actor.

[00:10:58]And he's already been humiliated by Iran.

[00:11:00]Can he really withstand another humiliation?

[00:11:04]Um you know, Again, these these are theses I don't want tested. I don't want to test these. So, but unfortunately, I think we're going to test them.

[00:11:17]Well, um so you assuming you assume it's very likely if not uh guaranteed now that the Russians will retaliate. How do you see them going up this escalation ladder? Do they will they go with incrementalism or go in very go in hard essentially Um because you know they could do something from plausible deniability that is sending in Ukrainian drones they essentially down before they can do a conventional strike. I mean they can do a tactic I don't think a tactical nuke is you know that would be far far up the escalation ladder but how do you see them retaliating or what what would you expect? I mean there's no there's no Russian playbook as people say so that is not necessarily one thing that's true but what do you think might be possible escalation strategies?

[00:12:09]I believe that I have to take off my military hat cuz my military hat says you know when you if you're going to do this do it decisively.

[00:12:20]Um I do believe that Putin will allow for escalation management.

[00:12:27]Um but the initial blows will be decisive.

[00:12:32]I I think that Kiev will be eliminated and um Bankova.

[00:12:40]And I believe that um a Baltic state will be struck decisively.

[00:12:46]Um you hear the rhetoric the decision-making centers have already been identified.

[00:12:53]So I believe that there will an example will be set of a Baltic state.

[00:12:58]Um a decisive example.

[00:13:01]Um and then I think there will be you know very little wiggle room meaning that zero tolerance for Western retaliation.

[00:13:09]Um any effort Western retaliation will bring the full weight of a Russian military response. Um but I do believe that you know I don't believe German factories are going to be hit in the first wave. I don't believe you know UK factories I I think that that will be left for you know follow-on wave if necessary but um I think that Russia will have to put a marker down and that um it won't be just one or two attacks. I think if they hit a Baltic state, uh they will eliminate the Baltic state. Um and because you have to send a signal.

[00:13:40]You have to say there before the grace of God go you. This is the future of Germany.

[00:13:45]And I do think that it's time for a Restionic to be unveiled in all of its awful, horrific reality.

[00:13:52]No single attacks anymore.

[00:13:54]Concentrated Restionic attacks the way the weapon was designed to create nuclear type devastation in a urban area.

[00:14:04]And the West needs to see this.

[00:14:08]This is incredibly depressing. Uh do you think there's any possibility now that we're kind of reaching or reached the point where we're going we're likely going into a direct war with Russia or Russia will at least retaliate in a big way?

[00:14:24]Do you think there's any possibility for a diplomatic path? I mean, what what is What do you make of what the EU is doing now because, you know, they're discussing, you know, should we talk to the Russians? Who should talk to the Russians? Who, you know, what should we talk about?

[00:14:39]Uh well, what what do you make of this?

[00:14:41]I I don't see any hope in the EU in the short term mature to the load to the degree necessary for diplomatic intervention to be meaningful at this stage.

[00:14:54]Cuz at the same time they're speaking of diplomatic and the interventions, their militaries are talking about war.

[00:15:01]Um you know, you need to shut down the war.

[00:15:04]I do believe that um China provides a very important diplomatic possibility.

[00:15:11]Um that China after Putin leaves, China will be able to contact Trump because there is connectivity there. Um and China will be able to contact the European Union and uh put them on notice that um this isn't a bluff. This is the real deal. You have no choice but to change the way you're going or else the consequences will be um devastating. So, I I do think there's still a window of um opportunity.

[00:15:40]Um, but the United States needs something to jump kick it and um you know, right now we don't have effective um one-on-one with uh Putin. I think if China intervenes, then Trump may call Putin, Putin may call Trump and um and pressure could be placed on Europe.

[00:15:59]And I'm hoping that that's the case.

[00:16:01]I'm hoping the United States puts Europe on notice that if they continue down this path, the United States will not be there for them.

[00:16:08]Um, that this is their problem and they need to stop this right now.

[00:16:12]And the United States also needs to basically tell Ukraine it's over.

[00:16:17]It's finished. You're done.

[00:16:18]Um whether Trump could do that, like I said, if if if he had won Iran, maybe he'd have some, you know political capital to spend, but he's a very weakened man. I don't I don't see him being able to to take two defeats at once, but the smart thing to do would be to um stop this path towards war because that's what we're on. And we're literally on a path towards the kind of war that you know, I trained to fight as a as a young Marine. I mean, this is this is the war I trained to fight. And uh so, I'm fully aware of what this kind of war means and what the consequences are if we ever cross that line of departure. Um nobody in the military today um you know unfortunately, they've all aged out. My generation is done. Um, you know but uh we we don't have if there's any, we don't have any real Cold Warriors left. Um so, they don't know what the Cold War was. They don't know what the Soviet Union was. They don't know what it was like to be prepared to, you know, fight um large-scale ground combat in Europe that involved nuclear weapons.

[00:17:25]We're getting ready to experience that today.

[00:17:27]And um >> [sighs and gasps] >> I just wish people would listen.

[00:17:34]Yeah, it's kind of sad that it's seemingly the only thing that can stop war now is uh Trump calling the Europeans and telling them, you know, if you decide to continue this escalate the war on Russia, you're on your own.

[00:17:49]It They they will hit back and we're not going to help you.

[00:17:53]I mean, if the future of the world is in the hands of Trump, we might all be Yeah, we're all going to screw it already. This is uh I wish we had some more responsible people. And that goes for the Europeans as well. You mentioned the the crazy Baltic states. I mean, this was the main idea, I think, in 2022 that is uh once they decided, okay, we will essentially boycott diplomacy, who will make a way will be the path to peace.

[00:18:16]That's when the EU thought it was a great idea to hand over the car keys to the most radical elements that is uh you know, Kaja Kallas, for example, out of Estonia. I mean, this is It's very hard to walk this back and then suddenly demand common sense out of her. So, no, I think I don't know. I'm not very optimistic anymore. Uh But uh yeah, I haven't packed my bags yet, but it seems like we're getting pretty close now. So, it's uh uh it's It's very Yeah, again, so depressing we ended up here and the Do you don't get the impression or do you do you get the impression that someone in Europe though who's understanding the severity of this situation? Because uh all I see is applause in the media. Oh, look. Look how much uh how bad they hit the the Russians. Yeah, you were winning. Ukraine is winning and nobody ever defined what exactly does winning mean in a war against the world's largest nuclear power who considers this to be an existential threat. No one. There's no discussions, just this ridiculous tribalism, the idea that oh, if they're losing, that means we're winning. This is the extent of their logic.

[00:19:25]It would be like a goal of defeating America with a drone warfare out of Mexico. Like, you don't want to win this war. You don't want to bring too much pain. It's It's suicide, but here we are.

[00:19:38]Anyways, any final thoughts?

[00:19:40]No, I mean um you know, I'm not religious, but um pray for peace.

[00:19:47]Pray for something. Hope something happens. Uh but also keep doing what you're doing, Glenn, because you are um you know, you're the the interviews you have have a meaningful impact. I I take a look at you're interviewing the right people, you're asking the right questions, you're getting the right conversations. And um and and it's resonating across the um the the intellectual uh aspect of the um worldwide web. You know, we we know that um independent media that's uh internet-based often times has zero quality control and um it it brings out the worst in us, but you bring out the best in terms of intellectual development of complex ideas.

[00:20:27]Um just keep doing what you're doing because, you know, you and I can't solve all the world's problems. We don't have the capacity to, you know, to make decisions, but I can guarantee you that um you know, what you say and maybe what I say sometimes and and what you get other people to say um resonates in certain circles that do have the ability to advise on policy.

[00:20:51]So, um yeah, don't just pray because praying's passive. Keep doing what you're doing.

[00:20:56]And for all your supporters out there, keep supporting Glenn cuz this you're you're one of the more important voices out there.

[00:21:04]I thank you. And yeah, I hope it does make a difference. So, thanks again for taking the time though.

[00:21:09]Okay, thanks. Have a good day.