AI Stocks Rebound | IREN Update + Is the Selloff Over? (Options With Ryan)

[00:00:00]The markets had a nice rebound today.

[00:00:02]I'm going to be talking about a few pieces of news that came out, the good and the bad, and where this market is potentially headed from here. I'm also going to be talking about a few AI infrastructure names, including IEN or Iris Energy. So, let's go ahead and dive right into it. Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary. Now, if you take a look at the account here, this right here is my public portfolio that I share here on YouTube. If you do want to follow me along my 8 figureure journey, be sure to be subscribed by clicking the subscribe button down below this video. Also, hit the notification bell to get my latest updates and hit that thumbs up button for me if you get any value out of this video. I would greatly appreciate it and I appreciate you being here. Now, as you can see, quite a big bounce back today given that we are heavy in AI infrastructure names.

[00:00:51]Realized gain loss on the day for transparency. As you can see, we closed out some those XND spreads that I talked about on my last update video. We also closed out some covered calls and a few cash secured puts on GLW for a nice little profit on the day. But what I'm more happy about is my 1,0 clients here in Options Trading University that are all following the principles and guidelines that I share in the mentorship. As you can see, we had some clients sharing their inspiration today.

[00:01:17]Um, you know, as you can see, obviously these results vary based off account size and risk tolerance. But if you do want access to my Ryan's trades and my leaps, entries, and exits, that'll be at the top of the description down below. I also share free trade ideas here on my Instagram where I share a little bit of my personal life and do daily market updates, my ex account, and my free newsletter. All three of those are down below in the description. But let's go ahead and jump into it. First piece of news that came through was that the White House has agreed to the Clarity Act ethics package as you could see right here. And basically, [snorts] Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant says the Senate is now at the one yard line for the Clarity Act, which is really good for risk on assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and other stocks that are in those particular sectors including Robin Hood and SoFi.

[00:02:08]So something very good for kind of the risk on sector of the market. We also saw last week Taiwan semiconductor report really good earnings. Now the stock did fall but they said they are going to be accelerating their Arizona factory buildout and capitalize on AI mega trend. Um the CEOs did state that they are committing to an additional $100 billion of capital expenditure to fund AI chipm and all the rest. So in data centers. So that is definitely very very good for AI infrastructure stocks.

[00:02:43]Now that was not being reflected last week. We saw a lot of those stocks selling off but I was looking at this as a very positive news going into earnings. Right? If we continue to see those hyperscalers like this week we have Tesla and Google coming out with earnings after tomorrow's bell. If we see them stating that they are either keeping their capital expenditure the same or increasing, that is going to propel money into the AI infrastructure stocks because they're going to be needing to buy their products and services continuously as we've seen throughout this whole year. So that is why I'm actually bullish on the markets here and I do think that we are setting up for the next leg up and I'll talk about why that is. Now, today was very constructive, although light volume in the overall S&P and the NASDAQ. We did see a lot of institutional call buying in select names such as MU, Sandis, QQQ, NBIS, AMD, SOXL, and the list goes on and on. Today, it was just complete call buying the whole day. We flipped on the fear and greed index from fear over into the neutral territory. So, we're still not overextended by any means in the overall markets and I do still believe a lot of the AI stocks are still beat up at these levels. Now, we did have a lot of bad news coming in right over the weekend as far as the straight of hermuz goes. Only 11 ships have been transiting the last 24 hours. That's actually below the average that we saw last week at 12.

[00:04:19]Okay, so ships are not going through the straightfor.

[00:04:24]If we take a look at the CME Fed watch tool, we could see that the rate hike odds have gotten a bit worse, right? Uh sec second 25 basis point rate hike being priced in for next March. And then we have a, you know, 86% odds of a rate hike coming in September. So, these odds aren't looking as good as last week. The price per barrel of oil has gone up to $84. This is not good. And it's going continuously up after hours. So pretty interesting to see how resilient the market really is given that you know nothing has changed as far as the Iran war situation goes and oil prices are increasing right we don't want to see this thing get above 90 I think that would be really bad obviously anywhere from 90 to 100 or higher would be extremely bad for inflation numbers which we're already seeing being reflected into the CME Fedatch tool. So with that being said, if we take a look at spy, we are up83% today. Uh QQQ up about 1.85%.

[00:05:27]And if we take a look at kind of the expected range, the expected market maker move within the next two weeks.

[00:05:32]Anywhere from 730 all the way down to 665. So from here I think we are more likely to maybe pull back a little bit but head upwards given Tesla and Google earnings come in great and those capital expenditures remain the same or more.

[00:05:50]Yes, that could be bad for those individual stocks but it will be good for the overall AI infrastructure sector. So I think we're going to see a lot more of the same kind of tune that we've been seeing for the past eight months. So, uh, QQQ here, I do think, you know, we breached that lower Ballinger band, kind of sucked back in here to towards that mid Ballinger band.

[00:06:12]I think the next area of resistance is going to be around the 720 area, and I do think we could hit that within this week. So, that's kind of my projection on where QQQ can go given that if we take a look at the VIX, right, we are all the way up at 1950 yesterday or two days ago. uh we had every opportunity to really sell off in the markets with oil prices going back up again, rate hikes being priced back in. It's not looking good as far as the overall fundamentals go, but the market again is resilient and future pacing. So, we are pricing in uh you know what the future of these earnings and of where oil can be and and that's kind of where I think this is going. I think oil eventually will come back down. I mean, we've saw it come back down from uh, you know, all the way up here at 100 almost $120 a barrel and now we're kind of chilling below the $90 area. So, ideally, we'd like to see this thing roll over. Maybe some sort of news comes in with the straighter form moves and we kind of head back down, maybe even hit new lows here in the low60s.

[00:07:16]So, that's what we're going to be looking out for. But, given the VIX cash allocations today with the market kind of rising, I did free up a little bit of cash. As you can see, we are between VIX 15 and 20. Slight fear in the market.

[00:07:29]So, ideally, I should have 20 to 25% cash on the sidelines, ready to deploy if we do get a bigger sell-off uh within the next couple weeks, and the VIX spikes back above 20. So, right now, you know, I had my VIX levels were pretty far off. I had 13% cash going into today and then I raised that up to 16%. So, I'm a little bit more closer to my levels and I'm feeling very comfortable here given that I'm actually bullish on the markets here given, you know, all the news that's out. Again, we have every we had every moment to really roll over with some of these stocks. So, let's take a look at them. Let's first take a look at Iron, right? We were all the way down here at 32 just the other day. This stock looked like it was going to head down into the mid20s. People were extremely bearish, especially in the comments section on Iren. Now, that is the best time to get bullish on stocks. You don't want to be bullish up here at the tops when everyone wants it.

[00:08:28]Everyone wanted IEN at $68, but no one wants it down here, which is pretty interesting psychology. Uh, so what I did was I look at the Ballinger bands.

[00:08:37]Obviously, we've been hugging this lower Ballinger band, just kind of breaching these uh moving averages, 50-day moving average, 200. We're below the volume weighted average price, right? And this thing just looked like it was going to keep going. But we did hit oversold on the RSI, which is something we don't see too often on Iron. Now, when we do, like back here, we saw it pretty much oversold on the RSI. We were at 32, where in fact, we were lower than we where we were back here. we saw the stock you know retrace about uh all the way from these bottoms all the way to the top about 128% in the next 60 days.

[00:09:16]So uh we have to be mindful of Iron and how it trades. It's very volatile and you know it tends to stick within these ranges. So uh given the news the news came out basically Iron has signed a $2.8 billion uh new multi-year AI cloud service contract. So that was obviously very bullish for the sector and showing that NeoCloud demand is still very very high. So and I knew that I knew we were going to see some type of deal come out.

[00:09:45]It was just a matter of when. Um that's how it was last time as well before they announced the Nvidia deal and headed back towards all-time highs. So with where iron where it's at today, I do think that we see maybe some sort of relief pullback here. we had, you know, a 32% move from these lows. Maybe we have a little pullback tomorrow or the next day and then maybe the next leg higher into the mid-40s or even low 50s. So, that's kind of where I'm eyeing. I think the 50-day moving average here at 52 is going to serve as a place of resistance and IN has the momentum to be able to move up to those levels. So, that's kind of where I'm expecting Iren to go. And if we take a look at my portfolio, remember this is not financial advice.

[00:10:32]I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only.

[00:10:35]Results may vary. You could see that we now have a large position in Iron. I have 2,000 shares with an average assignment price of about $49.50.

[00:10:47]So, with that being said, I went ahead and sold uh the 49 covered calls, which is technically slightly below my assignment price, but my cost basis on these shares is closer to 46 because of all the premiums, the put premiums that I collected. So, I'm totally fine with that. I do not think that I is going to go uh, you know, all the way past 49 in the next 10 days. Maybe in the next 14, but I think I'll be fine on these.

[00:11:13]Either way, if I get my shares called away, totally fine with that. Um, I will collect the put premiums. And then I sold these for to collect about $1,500 in covered call premium. So, very happy about that. And then I have 44 puts that are expiring this Friday. So, I might be assigned shares there, which will reduce my assignment price even lower. So, very bullish on Iron at this point. And I like the prices that I got on the stock.

[00:11:40]I do think in the next couple months this thing could be headed much higher.

[00:11:44]So that's Iron. Let's talk about Coherent. Another stock that was trading below the VWAP, trading at the lower ballinger bands for many days in a row.

[00:11:53]Um and even almost touched the 200 day moving average and the bottom of the RSI. So now we are seeing a bullish crossover today. That was very constructive and this thing from the bottom has gone up about uh 25%. So a nice rebound on COR and that was a wonderful opportunity to pick up shares.

[00:12:15]Now if we take a look at my position, you could see again pretty large. We have 100 shares at that I got assigned at 350. Went ahead and sold the 350 covered calls to collect about 500 bucks in premium in the next 10 days. Really good ROI there. Uh but we also have some puts that are expiring this Friday. So 335s totally fine getting assigned there. Basically, you know, caught the bottom. So, if I get assigned at 335, which would be uh right here, okay, I'll go ahead and ride the shares up. I'll probably sell some 360, 370 or 380 covered calls so I could get some appreciation and a lot of premium on those covered calls. So, very happy about this position. But again, COR, my favorite play in the photonic sector.

[00:12:58]This sector is not going away. We've talked about it before. They're partnered with Nvidia, very long-term partnership. Jensen Huang has already said photonix is the next way because copper data transmission is too expensive as far as how much it heats up. If we transmit data through light and lasers that is going to be more effective. So, uh coherent one of my favorite AI infrastructure plays. Now CLS again another favorite in the portfolio. Um hit that lower ballinger band breached through it almost oversold on the RSI. Last time we saw that was around here back in March. And you could see, you know, basically how much the stock went up from there, proceeded to go up almost 100% from those levels. So, you know, I'm actually expecting this thing to get above this 50-day moving average probably in the next week or two. And then for earnings, which are coming up on July 27th, who knows? We could take a look at what the market makers are expecting. But if you take a look at my portfolio, we have 300 shares, 390, 375 covered calls. We have a bunch of puts that are now out of the money. These were in the money. I thought I was going to get a sign, but most likely not now. So, if we take a look at the expected market maker move for next week, plus or minus 53. So, the market makers are expecting this stock to potentially go up to 394 from here. So, that would be uh basically from this point 394 be about a 15.8% increase. And I do think that the market makers are pretty accurate with that reading on the upside. Again, on the downside, um, you know, there is risk there as well. So, just be cognizant that the stock could also go down potentially into the, you know, 290s, low 290s or even the 280s. So, uh, two, you know, 395, 400, I think is kind of my expectation for earnings. Obviously, if the earnings come in really good. So, bullish crossover on the RSI, bullish crossover starting to form on the MACD.

[00:14:58]That's exactly what we want to see. GLW, another stock that I believe is way overextended on the downside. We saw this stock up at 271 a couple weeks ago.

[00:15:09]This stock went all the way down two days ago to 148 and now it's at 162. So, nice little rebound here, but I do still think that we have some room to go on the upside for GLW. I think fair price is going to be somewhere, you know, somewhere between 180 and 200. I think that kind of is a good level. I think we were getting a little bit overextended on this runup. So, um, you know, just kind of expecting that in the next couple weeks. GLW also does have earnings July 28th. And, you know, we've already seen that they've said, hey, they can't even make enough glass for the demand that is being um, you know, required from them. And that's why they signed a multi-billion dollar deal with Amazon to expand their uh centers to create more glass for the fiber optic cables. Okay. So, if you take a look at GLW, my position, you could see that we have closed out uh the 152 and 12 cash secured puts today. We have 167 and a halfs, 190s, and 200s that all expire next week. Totally fine being assigned on all of those. and then I will proceed to sell covered calls uh somewhere slightly above my assignment price so that I could collect some appreciation and premiums. But uh very happy with this. Maybe we don't even get assigned on the 167 and 1 halfs at this rate. So that is the current position. Uh WDC a 12% rebound today. This is exactly what I expected on a stock like this. We were getting a little bit too overextended. I was actually getting worried with SanDisk heading up over $2,000, STX, you know, uh, over $1,000, MU over a,000. It was just getting a little bit too crazy as far as, you know, overextended on the RSI. The PE ratios were, you know, not super high, but just high relative to where these stocks were trading at previously. Like back in April, uh WDC was trading at a 17 PE, went all the way up to a 45 PE ratio, and now it's at a 32 PE. So I do think that, you know, this is a a fairly safe PE ratio for the stock. I mean, then obviously they have earnings coming up on August 5th. So, you know, if they're earning way more than last quarter, that will reflect in their price to earnings ratio as well.

[00:17:29]So, you know, if we take a look at what market makers are expecting on WDC, you could see that I have a $108,000 position here, 485s that are expiring this Friday, as well as 600s that I might be assigned on, but we'll see. Uh, but if we look at earnings, the market maker expected move is $126 plus or minus. So, this thing could go all the way up to 670 or it could go all the way down right to potentially uh 430. So, pretty wide range there, but I think the likelihood of it going down to 430. It already did that right here. It had every opportunity for investors to sell it off even more, maybe even down to this 200 day moving average, but that did not happen. Okay, we saw a rapid and violent move to the upside um right at that 50-day moving average kind of resistance area. So, you know, I expect earnings to come in positive. maybe we see this thing go up to, you know, 640, maybe even 680. That's kind of a range I'm looking for as kind of a fair value, especially if they come off good earnings. So, that is WDC major rebound today and rally. Um, and then obviously there's DRAM. Okay, we saw a lot of people getting liquidated. In fact, one out of 30 one out of every 30 people in South Korea that was trading investing uh was basically margin called which is absolutely insane. So uh you know with that whole situation going on over there obviously SKH Samsung some of the Korean companies that are listed um that are held here in DRAM affected the ETF but now we see a nice solid recovery here.

[00:19:10]So, you know, from the bottom, we're up about almost 22% and I do believe that there is some more upside potential. Mid Ballinger band line is expected in the next week and a half. Maybe somewhere around this 63 to 65 area is what I'm eyeing, right? And we'll just kind of see what happens with earnings. Okay, earnings could obviously move these things a lot more, but again, I'm more bullish given where we were um overextended on the downside. So, DRAM looking really good. If you take a look at my position, you could see that I currently have the 56 and 1 halfs that are now out of the money and then all the rest of my puts are in the money.

[00:19:49]But I don't mind getting assigned there because again, I'm catching it towards the lower Ballinger band and there's plenty of covered call premiums that are above my current uh cost basis if assigned on these shares. So, very happy with that. But hopefully you enjoyed this quick update. I'll see you in tomorrow's update and take