Imran Khan's ouster,Munir's rise & geopolitics: What a leaked Pakistani cable reveals about US role

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[00:00:47]>> Since 2022 or let me say March 2022, Pakistan's politics has all moved around. The pivot of Pakistan's politics has been something called the cipher case. What is cipher? Cipher means zero.

[00:01:03]It doesn't mean it is something that was done by a cipher. Somebody who a cipher cipher is a complete cipher. Not like that. Cipher means code. So something that is written in code is a ciphered document. This was a cipher document that was sent by the Pakistan ambassador in Washington at that point on 7th of March 2022. The ambassador's name was Assad Majid Khan. He wrote a cipher document of about two pages which like all coded cables, diplomatic cables was top secret. It was top secret in the Pakistani system. That cable had a line.

[00:01:41]That cable was a rum of a conversation that the Pakistani ambassador had with the assistant secretary, then assistant secretary of state for South Asian and Central Asian affairs, Donald Louu. And there was one line in that cable. It's about a two and a half page cable. It talks about Pakistan's position on Ukraine. Also Pakistan complaining to Donald Louu, Pakistani ambassador that you are attacking us for our position on Ukraine and about Imran Khan being in Moscow on the day the invasion took place that is Feb 24, 2022. But you are not questioning India on their abstension etc. And Donald Louu goes on to say but about India the view in Washington is different. Even at the congress people see India through the prism of the Chinese Chinese relations.

[00:02:30]All that goes on but there is one line in that cable which is which is the little weapon of mass destruction. I think if the no confidence vote against the prime minister succeeds all will be forgiven in Washington because the Russia visit is being looked at as as a decision by the prime minister otherwise I think it will be tough going ahead.

[00:02:53]Now this is a quote that the Pakistani ambassador has written reporting on his conversation with Donald Louu. Donald Louu is somebody who's known in New Delhi very well. He was the deputy chief of mission at the at the US embassy in Delhi. I've had the pleasure of hosting him at home for one of our dinners.

[00:03:12]Decent guy usually not given to any tough language but in this case he's been quoted as saying this. Now what happens? Take you back to 7th March.

[00:03:22]This cable is sent to Islamabad. This is the time when Imran Khan is feeling under pressure from his army. The army chief is then not Aimuner. Army chief then is Kamar Javeed Baja. Kamar Javeed Baj Baja is putting Imran Khan under pressure. In fact, Kamar Javeed Baja wants to mend his relations with America. This at a time when Imran Khan has particularly ruined his relations.

[00:03:49]how that has played out. I will tell you as I take you through a story that has just dropped if I may say so on the American independent website news site called drop site. I will take you through that. This by this time however the US Pakistani relations are really bad. They are so bad and the Pakistani army is so upset about this that the Pakistani army behind their prime minister's back hired as its lobbyist in Washington the former CIA station chief in Islamabad. A former CIA station chief in Islamabad is now hired by the Pakistani army behind the back of its prime minister to lobby for it in Washington. That's how complicated the situation is and that's why Imran Khan is I think his judgment was right. He thought that this was a conspiracy to pull him down through a vote of confidence in which his army was also involved. When this happens, Imran Khan threatens to make this cable public or this cipher public. That's why in Pakistan it's called the cipher case. If you if you Google cipher case Pakistan, you will find the entire story and millions of stories about it. Because as I told you earlier this is the pivot around which Pakistan's politics the the decline and fall of Imran Khan decline fall and jailing of Imran Khan the return of Shabbah Sharif and Nav Sharif from outside the withdrawal of all the cases against Nav Sharif including convictions the jailing of Imran Khan's wife Bushra Bi then the rise of Aim Munir his becoming chief sort of out of turn but before that also his removal as ISI chief sort of very prematurely in after a very short tenure. I will take you through that. And then he's becoming field marshall and he's becoming chief of defense staff. He's abolishing the joint chiefs of staff committee which is very significant. Again I will tell you why that is significant. and he's then becoming complete dictator of Pakistan through this bloodless coup and then becoming a darling of Donald Trump as well. All of that has happened around this cable. Now 7th March 2022 this cable comes by 30th March buzz has built up in Islamabad that Imran Khan is going to reveal this cable because Imran Khan was saying that Americans are Americans are leading this conspiracy in which by implication some in the army are involved and some other forces in Pakistan are involved. In fact, he called it the London conspiracy which was an illusion to Aim Munir after he had been removed as ISI chief by him in 2019. That was also a twist in the story. In Pakistan, nothing is straight because this is not a political situation. Pakistani power game is not like any other political power game because power doesn't rest with politicians in Pakistan. It's the army, it's the intelligence agencies, it's the Americans and now it's the Chinese as well. All of that mixes up and then you get the story and increasingly the Iranians. 2019 this dropside story tells us Imran Khan made a visit to Iran and he thought he was going to mentions Iran neighboring Islamic country. By this time Iran Khan was also seeing himself as a great Muslim leader. He also made that proposal at the UN General Assembly of an Islamic media channel with Turkey and Malaysia.

[00:07:30]He was seeing himself as a great leader in the Islamic universe. At this time he went to Iran. Accompanying him was left general Aim Munir as ISI chief. In that meeting it is reported it's been reported earlier but now it's again been reported by drop site that Aimuner used particularly undiplomatic language and annoyed the Iranians. That surprising conduct from Aim Munir at a time when Iran Khan was trying to improve relations with Iran that is now being read in the American media also in this drop side story as evidence that Munir already was in touch with the Americans and was working on behalf of the Americans. So he did not want and the Americans did not want Pakistan Iran relationship to get better at that point. Within a few months after that Munir was removed. This dropside story tells us and I have read it elsewhere also including by some Pakistani commentators mostly exiled that this led to the removal of Aim Munir as I is chief in just 8 months. That's almost unprecedented in a country where the ISI chief's position is so powerful. in fact almost as far powerful as the army chief because the army chief also has the distraction quote unquote distraction of running running a large army about 600 700,000 strong army the ISIL chief just has to run intrigues all the time and also keep his political class under control he was removed and then another story started parallelly there to which we will we will come in just a bit because that will involve China and America and very sensitive relations there and the interplay. Now 30th of March 2022 that is within 3 weeks of this cable having been received in Islamabad. It had become evident that Imran Khan was going to release this cable. If he had released this cable, this would have confirmed his conspiracy theory. This would have weakened those planning a no confidence motion against him. This would have also weakened his army because he would have said my army is in cahoots with the Americans. This no confidence motion that's coming up. This is to bring me down on the demand of the Americans. Anti-Americanism is a very good bandwagon to get on to anywhere in the world but most of all in Pakistan in Pakistani politics. To prevent him, his rivals went to Islamabad High Court on 30th March 2022. He was restrained by Islamabad High Court. On 27th of March, in fact, Imran Khan had made his mind clear where he said in a rally that this is a foreign funded conspiracy and also that that this cipher was going to be or this cable was going to be revealed.

[00:10:25]That's when the quote unquote establishment got into action to prevent this from happening because this would have exposed them and would have cost caused big complications for them. The high court restrained its own prime minister from releasing a secret document unheard of in a democracy. A prime minister should be able to release anything he feels like as long as it belongs to his government. Remember this is not an American cable. This is a Pakistani cable. the original document with all the markings. You can see it on your screens. It's obviously a leak from Pakistan. It's not a leak from the Americans because Americans were not copied this document. This document was from Pakistan ambassador in Washington to his government in Islamabad. On May 23, in fact, Imran Khan had issued a statement demanding that that Donald should be fired. And if you look at this document, you can see why Imran Khan would be furious because one, this document says that Donald Lu or the Americans in this case and the Pakistan ambassador says that he's quite sure that Donald Louu was doing this after discussing it with white house and he was also confirming this that when the Pakistani ambassador asked Donald Lou, how come you're not talking to us about Ukraine but you're talking to India all the time? He said look we can't talk to your government right now given the current political turmoil in Pakistan that's because of the oncoming vote of no confidence. Now this vote of no confidence was successful soon enough Iran Khan lost power and then we know what happened. Now if you see this dropside story earlier intercept stories many other stories which have come out in international media also in Pakistani media also what's been said by many well-known Pakistani journalists commentators most of them in exile then you can put this story together first of all there is no doubt that Bill Burns then CIA chief he visited Pakistan in June of 2021 dawn reports some archival research shows that dawn says April but I think I'm more willing to go with the with the June 21 deadline. So June 21 he comes he comes to Pakistan and he wants to meet the Pakistani prime minister namely Imran Khan. Imran Khan refuses to meet him. Why? for the same reason that the prime minister of Nepal now refused to meet Sergio Gore or refused to meet any other foreign ministers coming in because he says I am prime minister I will meet somebody of my stature in this case Irm Khan said who CIA chief he can meet his counterpart I will meet my counterpart or talk to my counterpart who's Joe Biden Joe Biden did not like Immran Khan in fact Joe Biden came to power just a few months earlier in January That year he took over power. He was inaugurated succeeding Trump. He saw Imran Khan as just a usurper. Did not take him seriously. Maybe maybe he was also affected with the bonomi between Imran Khan and Trump when they met during the UN General Assembly session of 2019 September 2019. That's when Iran Khan and Donald Trump had gotten along really well and Donald Trump had even raised a lot of eyebrows in India by saying that he was willing to help resolve the Kashmir dispute. In fact, it's the last time any American leader of consequence has talked about the Kashmir problem or the Kashmir issue.

[00:14:02]June 21, William Burns was in Islamabad.

[00:14:06]Why? He knew that at some point America will withdraw from Afghanistan. Also at some point negotiations will reach some stage with the Taliban. Americans wanted to protect themselves and until then they wanted to keep the Taliban in control and protect their regime their regime in Kabul. So they wanted territory in Pakistan, facilities and bases in Pakistan especially to be able to carry out drone strikes as they used to do in the earlier days through Pakistan. Imran Khan first of all refused to meet him and after that made it very clear that he was never going to allow his territory to be used for any operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan. In the same month Iran Khan spoke to Exio co-founder Jonathan Swan.

[00:14:57]Exios these days we see all the time because of Barack Ravit stories looks like Trump does nothing without telling him first or maybe sometimes he tells him stuff but doesn't do it. But Trump stories, Trump's mind comes out through Barak Rabid of Exio. So Exio co-founder Jonathan Swan interviewed Imran Khan where Iran Khan said on the question of offering facilities to the Americans for operations in Afghanistan, absolutely not. There is no way we are going to give any basis any sort of action from Pakistani territory into Afghanistan.

[00:15:29]No, absolutely not. Now within weeks, this is July. within weeks kabulat kaos as we know by 15th of August. Now this is one of those vagaries of the history of the subcontinent. Two major events which have happened in the region which you can say were adverse worked adversely to India's interest have have happened on 15th of August that is the assassination of Mujibur Rahman in Bangladesh in 1975 and then the Taliban takeover in Kabul in 2021. Maybe just a coincidence. There are 365 days in a year.

[00:16:08]Co coincidences are statistically possible although they look sort of odd.

[00:16:13]Nevertheless, nevertheless, by 15th of August, Taliban had taken over and the American withdrawal was chaotic, reminding people of what had happened in Vietnam. It made Biden look bad. It blighted his presidency the rest of it and also in many ways contributed to the defeat of the Democrats and the victory of Donald Trump because Democrats were seen as weak. Now the runup before that was actually quite fascinating. When Trump was in power the first time Pakistan had actively brokered negotiation between the Taliban and Trump. This is when Trump had his special envoy who continued to be Biden's special envoy to Afghanistan and to DA negotiations in Qatar. Zalme Khalil Zad. Zalme Khalil Zad by the way after having been very sympathetic to Pakistan on many issues and very sympathetic also to Taliban has now got completely turned off. He's really furious that Imran Khan was removed and was jailed and he's been tweeting in anger against the Pakistani regime today and demanding Imran Khan's release. That said, it was also in this period that Pakistani military was getting weary of Imran Khan because they thought Iran Khan was following a policy of being equidistant between America and China of neither feeling seeming to be aligned with America or not nor with China. That is not something that the Pakistani army wants because they depend on both for different things. And the Pakistani army now thought that this was a formula for Pakistan's isolation which they did not like. This is when I told you earlier they hired their own lobbyist in Washington because they wanted to cover that base on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The fact that Imran Khan was scheduled to travel to Moscow was well known. The US wanted him to cancel that trip because they knew that an invasion was coming any day. So again, it's now been reported that days before the visit, Jake Sullivan, who was then Biden National Security Adviser, he called Moid Yuf his counterpart in Pakistan advising him to tell the prime minister to cancel his trip. But Imran Khan did not listen. The pictures and videos of Imran Khan shaking hands with Putin on the day of the invasion became the abiding image of the USPakistan relations of that period and that caused a great deal of damage. On April 9 as I told you in the vote of confidence maybe as Donald Louu had wished Iran Khan was removed. It was a rigged vote of confidence. Everything in Pakistani democratic pro process over the past 1015 years has been rigged. This was the most rigged of all. He was removed in that rigged vote of confidence within months. Now dropite reports Pakistani artillery shells and other munitions were on their way to Ukraine. These supplies were being sent through intermediaries, American intermediary companies. So Ukraine was not short of ammunition. Now this is something which would have also played out in a certain way with the Chinese. It would not have pleased the Chinese because they would have seen this as Pakistan once again getting close to the Americans. Pakistan had already begun to get benefits from this process. The IMF facility, the stabilization facility of $3 billion at a time when Pakistan was totally out of foreign exchange. It came in July 23 with American intervention and that was the direct benefit of Pakistan's shift in policy on Ukraine.

[00:20:02]February 24 Pakistan rigged its election. How do you rig an election?

[00:20:06]You tell the most popular party that you are disqualified. You can't contest. You take away their election symbol. You put their leader in jail. Then also al also his wife in jail. Lots of people get elected even as independents with affiliation to that party or loyalty to that party. You don't even give them registration certificates that they won the election. So this was a completely fixed election in Feb 24. In this case the American administration stayed out of this because by this time Pakistan had mended its relationship with the Americans. January 25 Trump got sworn in. he got inaugurated. He was still carrying his suspicion of the Pakistanis within his administration. There was a tussle and as often happens with regard to Pakistan, Pakistanis have always maintained very deep professional toprofessional or interin institutional relationships with the CIA because they've been partners in crime with the CIA for more than half a century now, but also with the Pentagon. So in this case, drop side tells us there was a tussle between the state department led by Marco Rubio and Pentagon and the CIA.

[00:21:23]And in this argument, Pentagon and the CIA won. And the Americans once again decided to forgive Pakistan for all their past indiscretions or misdemeanors and and start working with them as partners. There's a couple of interesting things that come out in this in in these revelations. April 9, 2022.

[00:21:43]On the same day as Immran Khan was removed in that rigged boat of confidence, the same day your prime minister has been removed, your government is gone. On the same day, Pakistan tests a Shaheen 3 missile. This Shaheen 3 has the range of 3,000 kilometers. The important thing is that so far it was understood or presumed that all of Pakistani missiles are aimed at India. 3,000 kilometers gave Pakistan the range to hit Israel and that got the Americans immediately worried. Kamar Javeid Baja later in the year general then army chief then in October that year he came to Washington to mend his relations with the relations with the Americans met all the top advisers and cabinet members secretary of state secretary of defense NSA etc. He committed to them that Pakistan will keep the range of its missiles just short of Israel. It will rein its military, limit its nukes and also move away from China. When he came back, now this is a claim in the drop site report because they also claimed to have seen produced Pakistani secret documents and they must have access to some because otherwise this cipher or this cable would not have been made public like this. They say on his return Kam Kamar Javeed Baja called the commander of the strategic planning division SPD a strategic planning division in the pre-uner era in the pre field marshal chief of defense forces CDF Munir era SPD used to control the nuclear weapons the strategic weapons they reported to chairman of joint chiefs of staff committee who in turn reported to the prime minister So there was a system of checks and balances and multi-level clearances for the use of nuclear weapons in Pakistan. SPD chief to be sure was not answerable to the army chief. So the army chief Kamar Jave Baja comes back from Washington and speaks to the SPD chief and and gives him these instructions. Limit the nukes, keep the missile range short of Israel, etc. SPD chief refuses to listen to him because everybody now knows that the power situation in Pakistan is changing. Soon there'll be a new boss. What's happened subsequently is worth noting.

[00:24:07]Subsequently after Munir became field marshal and chief of defense forces he had the constitution amended new laws passed the office of the chief of joint chiefs of staff committee has been abolished because he as a chief of defense forces is automatically the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee even if it existed and he does not report to any army chief or anybody which means that now all of Pakistan's nuclear weapon control is with one man namely field marshal Aimunir. So to that extent it's an important point. Whatever system of checks and balances and multi-level clearances were was there for nuclear weapons use in Pakistan is now gone. It's all with one man and what is it Baja who made these commitments to the Americans as I listed to you. What did he tell his SPD chief? He said look American experts will come or American delegations will come give them access to some of your nuclear sites so they can verify that we are keeping the promises that I have made. SPD chief tossed him tossed that request. He did not bother. In the same month Biden spoke out which was unusual for him and he said Pakistan may be the most dangerous nation in the world. They have nuclear weapons whose control is without any cohesion.

[00:25:29]This logically follows from the earlier sequence of events that I have listed for you. Now, Munir became chief on November 22. How he became chief is something on which we did an entire episode of Kartak. I will share a link with you. You can see that. Imran Khan had said that after having been removed as ISI chief, Munir made a visit to London where he met Navaj Sharif and hatched the plan to get him out. This is what he called as the London plan. Now what has happened since Munir came in since Munir came in again according to this analysis in drop site and you can see some evidence of from what's happened on the ground in Pakistan that CPEC has come to a grinding halt.

[00:26:11]Nothing is moving in CPC. So is Pakistan distancing itself a little bit from China? Can they afford to? 85% of their weaponry comes from China. Unlikely. But Pak Pakistan can play both sides like this and make the pretense that it's slowing down its projects with China.

[00:26:29]However, in fact, there's been some slowing down. Of the 90 projects under CPEC, only 38 have been completed. 23 are under construction. There is no talk about any of the others. Only one of the expressways planned under this that is the Guadada East Bay expressway was completed in 2022. Since then no major project is completed. ML1 which was the main line north to south in Pakistan its redevelopment or modernization has been eternally or perpetually deferred.

[00:27:05]It's not meet moving. Looks like the Chinese also at some point have expressed some frustration in Chinese ambassador Jang Xiong at some point had made his frustrations public that Pakistan was not able to protect the Chinese workers after repeated attacks on Chinese workers had led to 21 deaths and also Chinese power production plants in Pakistan are owed enormous amounts of money which Pakistan is not able to pay.

[00:27:35]In 2024, I told you Pakistan can play both sides while pretending to look away from China in 2024. And this to my mind is the biggest revelation in these documents. In 2024, Pakistan talked to China and said, "Look, you've built the port of Gad, you're building it. We can give it to you as a permanent military facility. Deep water, beautiful warm waters, deep water, Arabian Sea, next to the Persian Gulf. What else can the Chinese ask for? But Pakistanis wanted something in return. What was this? I will list three things to you. Number one, indemnity against any retaliatory US action, economic or otherwise, for giving Guad as a military base to China.

[00:28:22]That's number one. Number two, guaranteeing Pakistan of military aid and modernization to keep them always ab breast with India if not ahead of India.

[00:28:34]And third, and that's the trickiest and also I would say the most audacious that is for China to give Pakistan a sea-based nuclear second strike capability as we have now just built with the Araidaman series of submarines.

[00:28:48]So, China should give Pakistan a second strike submarine facility which means China should give Pakistan SSBN or nuclear weapon firing submarines. This one the Chinese turned down. Chinese bock because they thought that this will bring them into a direct role in proliferation in the subcontinent and the consequences of this internationally will be disproportionate to the benefits they get from having guad as a military base. These negotiations drop tells us ended in frustration. The Chinese found the Pakistanis unreasonable and ended the talks on a bitter note. In August 25, Munir again tried to play both sides when he said, "We don't sacrifice one friend for another." But meanwhile, in fact, even earlier, he had not allowed the Chinese to bring more personnel for their CPC projects. He also sort of withdrew without formally saying so. did not let the Chinese bring in their own teams to protect their own personnel.

[00:29:59]That was see that was done to please the Americans and Tropite would say that that contributed more to Donald Trump beginning to like Munir or rediscovering America's love for Pakistan than the crypto deals with his family etc. Although those also played played their role in the same period. Immran Khan while he was trying to show that Pakistan was equidistant from America and China and not really tied in with either because Imran Khan also liked strategic autonomy. He had those notions. He also turned down pressure from Saudi Arabia to sign a mutual defense pact. All of that got the Pakistani army really upset because they thought Imran Khan was now pushing Pakistan into strategic isolation. They do not see strategic autonomy as something of great value. They want to play these games. So anything that looks like being equidistant or turning down a demand from Saudi Arabia which can bring a lot of cash for for Pakistan, they will see that as a case of going into strategic isolation. That is when the dye was cast on Immran Khan's fate. And as we know, one of the earliest agreement signed under the Shabbash Sharif Munir or let me just say Munir Mun Mun Shabbah Sharif dispensation is the mutual defense pack with Saudi Arabia which in any case would not displease the Americans. This is a short story therefore of how what started with this cipher this cipher or cable on 7th of March 2022 ended up changing not just Pakistan's history but in some ways the subcontinent's history and also influencing geopolitics next door in Iran larger West Asia policy in America Beijing and beyond.