SHOCK UPDATE: New Data Shows Massive Democratic Wave In The Senate

Added: 2026-05-04

[00:00:00]What's going on everyone? Welcome back to the  show. So, one of the things that I've been trying to show you on this channel is I'm trying to show  you the different pollsters. I'm trying to show you the AI model that we created that hopefully  will predict the 2026 midterm election. There's also prediction markets out there. And so, what I  want to do because I posted this video a few days ago where I was talking about the Cook Political  Report and I was showing you the Senate map. And so what I want to show you is the Senate map  according to the Cook Political Report and then the prediction market. The Senate map according to  the prediction market. And I think you're going to find this pretty interesting and pretty shocking  because they're very different. One is showing that Republicans would maintain control of the  Senate. The other is showing that Democrats would take back control of the Senate. And so we're  going to talk a little bit about this. We'll break it down and I'll give you my opinion on both the  Cook Political Report as well as the prediction market. So, that's what we're going to focus on in  this video. But first off, if you guys can do me a favor, please like the video. And if you're  watching this video and you want to see more content like this, please consider subscribing  to the channel. Okay. So, for those of you who don't know the prediction market, it's like Koshi  and and Poly Market and there's these different uh prediction markets where you can go on there  and you can place odds or bet place a bet on uh different events. Now, I'm not a betting person.  I don't get online and do that type of stuff, but we can use it as a predictor because people  are betting on basically betting on the different outcomes here. And so, not only are we looking at  polling, but we're looking at prediction markets.

[00:01:36]We're looking at other uh factors to try to figure  out what the 2026 midterm election is going to really look like. So, let me show you. We'll just  go into this and this is a side by side and what I have here on the right, we are looking at the Cook  Political Report. Okay, so this is the information that they've gathered and this is the Senate map  according to the Cook Political Report. On the left, this is the prediction market. This is Kowi  that we're using. And so you see the differences here. And if you just look at the very top,  Democrats and independents are at 51. Republicans are at 49. Democrats and independents on the Cook  Political Report, they're at 47 and Republicans are at 50. And then they have these seats here  that are toss-ups basically what they're showing here. And if we're looking if we're looking  at this map, we see some differences here.

[00:02:26]You see that the prediction market on the left  is showing that North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Georgia. These  are all states that the prediction market is saying that they think Democrats will win and that  would get Democrats and independents at 51. Now, if we're looking at Democrats and independents  at 51, Democrats would take back control of the Senate. And so, I just thought it was  very interesting when you put these side by side. on the right, the Cook Political Report is  basically showing us the best that Democrats can do is get to 5050. Okay? Because there's three  tossups here. These three uh gold color here, these are toss-ups. So if Democrats were to  win in Ohio, win in Michigan, and win in Maine, they would get to 50 and Republicans would be at  50, but Republicans would still maintain control of the Senate because the tie goes to the vice  president. Vice President's a Republican. And so that's what we would be looking at in that  situation. And so looking at the prediction market, looking at Koshi, this looks exactly like  what I've been talking about. Okay? And I'll show you. So this is the map that I usually use and  this is what it looks like. Koshi looks very, very similar. Okay? So let's go over these. I want  to go over these one by one. So we're going to look at the battleground states. Georgia. So you  have Georgia. You have Oaf winning in Georgia.

[00:03:47]That's what Kowi is is basically predicting at  this point. North Carolina. Roy Cooper would win in North Carolina. That's what Kowi's predicting.  Now, remember, these predictions are, this is, you know, a screenshot of what's going on today.  So, that is what they're looking at here. So, a month from now, this can change and it will  change. 6 months from now, this will change. And so, right now, if we had an election held today,  this is what we would see. Now, let's move up to New Hampshire. Democrats would win New Hampshire.  So, Popas would win there. We're looking at Maine, either Platner or Mills. Both Democrats are  running in a primary against each other, but one of them would win over Collins. Uh Michigan,  we would see, and this hasn't been settled yet.

[00:04:31]We're still waiting to see who's going to win  the primaries on both Republican and Democratic side. But right now, the prediction market is  showing that Michigan would go to Democrats.

[00:04:40]Then we look down to Ohio is showing that it  leans for Democrats. Ohio leans for Democrats.

[00:04:45]And so basically what they're saying is it would  be a close race but Sherid Brown would be able to pull it out in Ohio. And then when we move down  to Alaska, it's showing that Pelola be another close race but Pelola would be able to pull it  out in Alaska. And then when we look at states like Texas and Iowa, it's showing that Republicans  will be able to hold Texas and Republicans will be able to hold Iowa. Now Iowa's another seat. This  is an open seat. So, a lot of people are focusing attention on Iowa because we don't know exactly  how that's going to play out. We don't know who the top, you know, Republican and top Democrat  will be running against each other. And so, when we get more information on that, maybe we'll  have a better idea of how that race is going to go. But right now, the prediction market is saying  that Republicans are going to win there. And so, just showing you our map again, this is exactly  what we have on our map. It's exactly the same.

[00:05:35]And this is what I've been talking about. If you  just go back a week from from uh today and look at some of the the maps that I was going over and  saying, "Well, we could potentially see this, we could potentially see that." The pathway that  the Democrats have, this is the pathway. Now, this pathway could be padded if we see something go on  in Texas. And I still think I'm still going to say this, when it comes to Texas, that is a race where  I think Terico can win because of the climate, everything that's going on right now. Cornin is  the incumbent. He is not popular. He's running in a runoff against Paxton. That's the reason why  he's running in a runoff against Paxton because he is not popular. And Paxton is an outsider, but  Paxton isn't popular either. And so we could see a situation where either Cornin or Paxton wins, but  they're running against Terico who has the, you know, you have people that are energized around  Terico right now. And so Terico could potentially win. And so, not only could we see this as a  pathway where Democrats win in North Carolina, they win in Maine, they win in Ohio, they win in  Alaska, but they could also win in Texas. And so, that's something that we're going to be watching  very closely. And I know I do have some people that are saying, well, we, you know, Democrats  need 52 because 51 would give them the majority, but when you're looking at Federman, Federman  might jump over to the Republican side, which I I highly doubt that he would do that.  If anything, I think Federman would say, "Okay, I'm an independent," but he would still caucus  with the Democrats. But if there was a situation where you needed that extra seat, you could get  it in Texas or you could get it in Iowa. I think Texas is more likely than Iowa at this current  state. But as I stated, when it comes to Iowa, we need to see who's going to be running and  then we'll have a better idea of where that race is going. But all in all, Democrats do  have a pathway to take back control of the Senate. And this is the pathway. And do we go  back to the prediction market? They're showing us that people are actually putting money on these  different states. And these states are, you know, this is a pathway showing that Democrats do have a  potential to take back control of the Senate. And so, like always, I'm going to pass this off to  you. What do you guys think we're going to see?

[00:07:52]Do you agree with the prediction market more  than you agree with what what we saw in the Cook Political Report? So, let me know that  in the comments below. If you like this video, please give me a thumbs up. Please subscribe for  more. And remember, stay informed, stay engaged, and I'll talk to you in the next one. Bye. So,  that's all we have for this video. Make sure if you guys want to send me an email, you can do  that. David.com. Like the video, subscribe for more, and check out these videos over here for  some more great content. Talk to you later. Bye.