This Pattern Flip Could Break Heat Records

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]Hello and welcome back everybody. I'm chief meteorologist Chris Justice. We go from some of the coldest air we're going to have until this upcoming fall to a major heat dome setting up that's going to send some of us into the mid9s. Now, there's going to be a stormy section of this 90s and there's going to be a dry section of this. In this video, I'll map that out for you. Please drop in the comment section where you're watching from right now and let's get this conversation going. So, as we go into the overnight hours through the next days, we've got severe weather threats trying to build back toward the Midwest.

[00:00:29]They're level one threats. Overall, the severe threats are low this week. That's good. But we do have some fronts moving around which will spark some storms.

[00:00:37]Central Florida, there could be some feisty storms throughout the day on Tuesday. Uh mainly the I95 corridor of Florida will have some feisty storms.

[00:00:46]Now, let's go into Wednesday. Now, there's another front moving through that's going to bring in that coolest air I told you about. That's going to be the coldest we're going to see again till this upcoming September or October likely. Yeah, it's going to be a while before we get this cool. And that does bring in at least a little bit of a storm threat. Everywhere in green has a chance for thunderstorms. The lighter or the darker green, I should say, is a level one risk for severe weather. Our new high resolution models are in and they they kind of, you know, show us that storm threat as we go throughout the day. Let's back this up one frame here. I want to show you Florida for you folks watching right now. We've got quite the feisty action showing up here across Friday afternoon or sorry, not Friday yet, just Tuesday, folks.

[00:01:27]Jacksonville uh down toward West Palm into Miami. There could be some really strong storms here and this would fire up as the seab breeze action gets going.

[00:01:37]I mean, we're we're getting to the rainy season and and there's going to be some feisty storms, very electrical storms hanging out till about 8 9:00. So, in Orlando, you know, northbound, there's going to be some storms and then even southbound. Just about everybody in Florida gets in on some action on our Tuesday. Then we turn our attention to this heading into the Midwest. Check this out. We've got this front moving in as we go into Wednesday morning. It's pretty tame until we get to the heat of the day. Here's 400 p. p.m. on Wednesday. East Tennessee starting to get on some action. So, if you're up toward Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Knoxville, we got you covered. We're going to watch this move over the mountains at about 7:00. This as a front moves through. It's got some drier, cooler air coming in on the north side.

[00:02:17]It's got some warmer air on the south side. So later in the evening, I'm talking 8 9 10:00 on Wednesday. The Carolas, North Georgia, down through Atlanta, uh in through Charlotte, up through Raleigh, Durham, could see some rain. Here's some thunder, maybe some storms rolling through this as the front moves on in. And overnight, yeah, while you're sleeping down toward Columbia, Orangeburg, parts of uh South Carolina, getting in on some action here. Now, deeper in the forecast here, we've got clear skies forming after that. this as a big dome of high pressure sets in which I'll show you in a moment. How about severe threats? Boy, it's quite high as we go into our or storm fuel, I should say, quite high going into Tuesday. Those cape values 2,000 or above across the I95 corridor of Florida. So, you got plenty of storm fuel there and it's plenty humid hot.

[00:03:07]Now, going deeper in the forecast, that Wednesday action I showed you just doesn't have fuel to work with. It's got a couple of hundred jewels of cape, which is honestly not very much. enough to give thunder, but not much more than that. Then we draw our attention to this. This is a building heat dome back toward the west. But before that can move east, we got one more dip in the jetream here. Check this out.

[00:03:30]I mean, dang, this thing's pretty stout.

[00:03:32]This is a big dip in the jetream. What that leads to is kind of unsettled, cool weather that brings in that front with some rain on Wednesday. Behind it, it's quite cool. I mean, Thursday's humidity is going to drop. The highs will be in the low to mid70s. And then going into Friday morning, that's when some cooler air begins to settle in. And my word, I mean, this is going to be quite chilly compared to normal. We're talking 10, 15 degrees below normal for lows. That'll put some of us in the 30s from western North Carolina's high country up through the north. 40s outside of the mountains.

[00:04:03]It's going to be chilly when you wake up Friday morning, but boy, that is fleeting. If I've ever seen it be fleeting, look at this big dome of high pressure building in. What this is is the jetream retreating up toward the north. that opens the door for warm weather. Now, that said, I'm going to flip it back one model, get us into this uh pattern here because I just don't see this European letting go of this pattern through the rest of May. You're saying, "Hey, wait a minute." You know, it's it's early, but could this thing hold on? I do think it can. And the reason I say that is we often have a hard time breaking out of a dome like this. This is a big heat dome and it takes a while to get rid of it. Now, will we see any kind of rain under that? That is to be determined, but I do have some signals here I want to show you. Let's look at the precipitable water. What am I looking at here? Moisture. Moisture.

[00:04:56]Where you at? Upper air. Here we go.

[00:05:01]This is what I'm looking for. So, this map basically shows the moisture transport. Where is the moisture in the atmosphere and where is it more important not uh going into this weekend?

[00:05:12]There's plenty of it building around that ridge, what we call the ring of fire. Now, there's a dome of high pressure. Winds around a high pressure go clockwise. Okay, so this dome is sitting here and on the outskirts of it that's bringing in warm Gulf muggy air.

[00:05:28]Okay, so that's Texas, Oklahoma into Kansas. Uh, that stays with us. And notice how it kind of high pressure is locked in. So it goes up and around that outer edge. So Tuesday of next week, notice how this kind of gets into Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky.

[00:05:45]Does it start to slide to the east?

[00:05:47]Maybe a little bit. But the greatest moisture, humidity, transport, repeated thunderstorms, just that that ring of fire as we call it, oftentimes it can be pretty stout. I mean, you're still hot in the 90s, well above normal. Now, you got the humidity to work with it as well, and you've got thunderstorms. So, going toward the middle and end of next week, I do think some of us in the western Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, get in on those ring of fire type storms. Now, this is not your typical spring setup. Rather, more of a summer setup where boy, it'd be it'd be really hot and humid and then by 2, 3:00, boom, you get some thunderstorms to form. This would not be widespread um you know supercellier type storms. Uh could there be hail? Could there be wind? Sure. Uh but this is more of a summertime pattern uh than a than a spring storm setup. That said, we do look toward the 20th. This is getting closer to Memorial Day weekend for some better rain and thunderstorm chances start selling into the Carolinas. This would be Sunday, Monday into more. Now early. I get it. What you mean? That's 300 miles out. That's a long time, but we do have some some identifications of a pattern that turns stormier along with that heat. And the European shows that things lasting all week. All right, so how about this cool down coming in? Here we are Thursday into Friday.

[00:07:05]Temperatures running 10 15 degrees below normal. I love that. Uh here we are Friday morning about 10 degrees below normal. So waking up 30s and 40s and then and then it's on. Now temperatures are running 15 20 degrees above normal. And it doesn't stop there.

[00:07:23]I mean this model shows we're we're above normal by 10 degrees. Now I'm at the 21st 22nd 10 plus degrees above normal going deeper deeper. Here we go.

[00:07:32]Now the ring of fire is doing the ring of fire things. Look at that cooler air separated by warmer air. Ridge comes in that ring of fire area again. You got different temperatures boundaries. You got moisture coming in. So that oftentimes is a stormy setup. So does that move off toward the east? It's very possible, but all the way toward the end of this forecast, at least 5 to 10 degrees above normal through May 26th.

[00:07:54]All right, so what does that look like?

[00:07:56]All right. Well, let's start with the cool down. So, remember I said the coolest air we're going to have until next fall comes in Thursday night, Friday. Here we are, Friday morning.

[00:08:07]Boom. Right there. Again, this is the European. It's got 40s and 50s. It's got some whites in here toward the upper high country of the North Carolina mountains, beach mountain, Sugar Mountain. Uh, you know, elevations 4,000 above. Could be in the, you know, 38 to 42 degree range. Uh, but but frost free, I don't I don't see frost being a concern, but certainly a chill in the air, especially because you go from the 40s to watch this Saturday afternoon outside of the mountains. The mountains still enjoying that that 70°ree mountain air. Outside the mountains, you're you're upper 80s from central Florida to the Carolinas to Georgia and Alabama.

[00:08:46]Middle middle middle Tennessee, 90s.

[00:08:48]Doesn't stop there. By Sunday, who's got Sunday plans?

[00:08:52]Boy, 90s now showing up to South Carolina, North Carolina. 90 outside of Atlanta near Athens. Okay, doesn't stop there. Here's Monday.

[00:09:02]Locked in with the 90s. Florida to Georgia and the Carolinas. Here we are.

[00:09:07]Tuesday, 91 9. There's a 93 in North Carolina.

[00:09:12]Let's go to Wednesday. Looks to be the hottest from what I've seen. Got some 90s in here. 92.

[00:09:18]European had 94 in here at GSP for Wednesday.

[00:09:24]Looks like it moderates a little bit in here. Do we get some cloud cover? Do we get some thunderstorms trying to roll through? It's possible.

[00:09:31]That'd be that time frame that we get into, but still we're locked in with 90s. Okay, so you get the picture. We're about to turn the the script around here and start to be really really hot. So, what say you? What is on your mind? What would you like to see as far as these kind of storms are concerned? Uh are are you ready for some hot but stormy weather because you want the rain or are you ready for maybe some hot and dry weather just to kind of heat up the pool, heat up the lakes, right? That is a component to this is we do need to start getting a little bit more warm uh in order to do those things, but uh we don't want severe weather and we certainly need the rain. We just don't need the severe weather. So, thank you guys for being here. If you're new to the channel, please consider following me. I do love what I do. Please like this video, subscribe, and turn on those notifications as it does help me out in all kinds of ways to get this out to as many people as possible. Guys, thank you so much for being here. Uh we'll have another update on which way we're trending. Stormy and dry or stormy and hot or or hot and dry because some of us are going to be both over the course of the next 10 days. Again, thank you for being here. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Talk soon.