F.A.C.E. Show May 5th, 2026

Ajouté : 2026-05-12

[00:03:22]Good morning traders. This is Blake. You are listening to the face show. I hope everybody's having a great Tuesday.

[00:03:29]Happy Well, let's see if we get a little bit of a turnaround Tuesday today. I doubt it. The equity markets continue to be really strong. I want to point out PL Palantir PLTR is down pre-market after having some pretty good earnings yesterday. Those are the kind of things by the way that you look out for when you're dealing with, you know, individual equities. When you have a good earnings like Palantir was just blowout again.

[00:03:57]And the stock is actually trading down, you know, about 3% pre-market. Just something that I was just looking at just a few minutes ago ahead of ahead of the open. But going back to what I was just saying about the S&P, we we have another, you know, push higher again off of what I think is a rising channel. And we're still in breakout territory. While we remain above 7050 or 7,000 in the S&P, you got to respect the breakout. I mean, yes, I can argue that we are at long-term channel resistance. You know, you can go on a weekly chart and say we're we're right up against resistance.

[00:04:34]We are, but intraday, we are still just holding that you know, the the breakout point. And you know, I think rightfully so as yesterday, you know, things looked a little bleak.

[00:04:47]Looked like there was going to be an intensifying of you know, a situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:04:56]Really just hasn't materialized to anything and I think the market overall just likes the fact that there has been no increased military action at least at this point.

[00:05:09]A couple other things that we do really have to that we're facing today is we've got economic data that's coming up. You know, we have some data that is going to be well, in my opinion, it's going to be pretty important as we're going into today. We're going to have ISM data.

[00:05:25]Obviously, that's like the big one because that's going to be the most real-time data that we see on a services. This is going to be the services data.

[00:05:33]But you know, we're going to see how intense the price pressures are in that ISM data and it's recent data.

[00:05:42]Where if you you know, look at some of the other like the jolts data and you know, the the housing data that we're going to get is going to be more you know, a little bit from data from you know, March if you will and it's not going to be as as pertinent as the ISM. But the ISM is going to be really important especially you know, that we are in jobs week. The non-farm payroll data is going to really be moving the needle come Friday.

[00:06:08]So again, ISM really important coming up a little bit later today. One other thing that I I wanted to point out that that is kind of gone underneath the radar and and I want to talk about this really quick because there's going to be a difference between central banks and how they're managing things.

[00:06:27]When I got up this morning and I got into the Forex Analytics chat room, first thing I had to do is I had to jump on a meeting because if you guys don't know, Trading Analytics is is is going to be launching here this month. And by the way, if you're not involved in the newsletter, which you just go to our website, go right in the very middle, you can just enroll for the newsletter, just put your name, email address. You'll be first in line aside from our current subscribers, you'll be in one of the first in line to jump in and use Trading Analytics, which I can guarantee you guys are going to want to do that. Considering what we're doing with Forex Analytics and evolving and how we're evolving as a company. But get signed up for that newsletter. But I was on a meeting earlier today and one of the things that one of the things that that that jumped out at me is some of the comments that came from the Swiss National Bank. Now, Mark in our chat room, we were just having a conversation in our chat room about the the the surprise lack lack of of response that we're seeing in the Swiss franc. And I want to go over to the Euro Swiss because this is a really important currency that you know, you know, many of you in in our community know that I'm playing it on the long side. But the Euro Swiss has had Schlegel had some comments about you know, potential intervention. But intervention on a Swiss level is a little bit different than what you would see in Bank of Japan. For those of us that that that are old enough to remember when the Swiss National Bank was holding the line back here in 2012.

[00:08:12]Actually, yeah, it was here in 2012 when they were holding the line and holding the floor. This intervention is a lot different than what you see in the from the Bank of Japan where the Bank of Japan just and the Ministry of Finance go out and they just start, you know, plowing into the market like long yen in in in the Swiss way of intervention is they'll just hold levels. And this was this was a comment that was made by Cayman earlier in our chat room and I think it's worth discussing because if you hear you you hear about intervention from the Swiss National Bank, the way it's managed is a little bit different. So I'm going to bring in Cayman really quick to talk about the difference between the the two different central banks and how they manage intervention. Good morning, Cayman. How are you? Morning, Blake. Morning, everybody.

[00:09:03]>> [clears throat] >> Yeah, and and I think your comments are really relevant considering what we've just seen from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan this last week versus what the Swiss National Bank does in the way they manage their intervention. Do you want to explain a little bit about how that works?

[00:09:21]Yeah, the SNB's completely different.

[00:09:23]They their interventions are not of the likes of going to market and hit the market it with the with Swiss francs as well.

[00:09:32]The Bank of Japan on when when ordered by the MOF goes into the market when they intervene and 90% of the time just ask for rates and and hit the market as we have already experienced over the past week. SNB's likely going to when they judge it necessary, they just probably go and sit on the bid. Would it be in euro Swiss or dollar Swiss most of the time? It is it's it's rather in the euro Swiss because it's their biggest trading partner. Although the the the US is not negligible of course.

[00:10:12]So either of them they when they judge that the Swiss franc is too strong, they would rather go sit on the bid and defend or smooth and a certain level and yeah, the market doesn't react to it because they've been talking in that way for for quite a few months now on the when the euro Swiss was declining. I I really think they have been in there when it was 90 and around on the euro Swiss.

[00:10:39]Probably raised bids in the meantime on the on the way up.

[00:10:46]And yeah, maybe they maybe they find this level around 91 and a half an interesting one enough to to repeat that they that they are more willing to intervene. But the issue is that you can't really go and say I'm buying euro Swiss and I'm going to sell it at 150 points or 200 points higher because they intervene. No, it's going to be a game of patience.

[00:11:10]Right. Yeah, it's not one of those type and the good news about the the euro Swiss just using that as an example since it's on our screen is is you do get a positive carry in this in this environment. You know, when you have you know, the Swiss franc which you know, their their interest rates are effectively zero and you have you know, the euro which you know, has what what are we at three no, 2.75 I got to I'm thinking about trying to think out loud here. We are at the ECB is at 2.15. So yeah, I mean you get a slight positive carry there. Um you know, this it does look like this is a level of interest but it could be a little bit lower. I would say while we're above 90 cents it's it's going to be a you know, kind of a tougher tougher uh uh currency to be trying to short. I would think. But thank you Kay Man. I appreciate that that that commentary on the different >> Yeah, and and just um just to reply to Khalid 120 euro Swiss.

[00:12:09]I mean that those days are completely over. Um I we we shouldn't expect them to go and sit on a level and pretty openly declare that they are going to defend it because they've had such a bad experience with it. They they they won't repeat that that feat. Many of us had a very bad experience with that Kay Man.

[00:12:28]>> [laughter] >> Not just the Swiss National Bank. I think a few of us might >> [laughter] >> All right. Hey real quick. I want to bring in Ryan.

[00:12:38]Ryan, welcome back off of your off of the May Day holiday. Hope you had a good time with your boys.

[00:12:44]So welcome back. Thank you very much.

[00:12:46]Good to be back. Hey, so what what's been your observation that you you know, after after being being out for a day seeing you know, what's happened in the markets anything caught your eye?

[00:12:58]Um no, I mean obviously the yen's in focus. We're seeing dollar yen you know, getting back up towards that 158 level.

[00:13:06]We had some interesting moves this morning.

[00:13:09]Look like we were glued below 15730s someone on the offer there. That broke and then we busted up to the highs and with by a little blip after that we've held that break and now we're moving back up again.

[00:13:25]You know, by the way equities are pushing higher. Hex Seth is on the on the on the wires says Iran does not control the straight.

[00:13:35]And we're not looking for a fight. We're not looking for a fight. Hex Seth said that? That doesn't sound right.

[00:13:43]Not again. Yeah, I must be a wrong it must be like an AI Hex Seth that's making those comments.

[00:13:50]That he's he's the secretary of war guys. I mean he's always looking for a fight. Um you know, We've got Arachi going over for a trip to China today to reaffirm their paly paly situation there a bit similar to what he did when he went over to see Putin.

[00:14:12]So he's he's doing a little bit of a cool round.

[00:14:15]Yeah, we're still in this this malaise over what's happening in Iran. US sending through those ships ended up having to shoot a lot of boats and whatever defend against this that and the other.

[00:14:27]But anyway, yeah, back back to the yen and uh definitely looks like the market wants to push the MOF's buttons on this one.

[00:14:34]Right. Yeah, I mean you a lot of you know, looking at it a lot of these yen pairs. I think the euro yen's been a pretty good pretty good example of this.

[00:14:42]You know, we we had an eventual push below like channel support. This is a channel that's been you know, basically intact for over a year and we broke below it. Now we haven't we haven't come back into the channel if you will. So it's just been more of a bearish consolidation. But the market is trying to push the buttons of the Ministry of Finance here.

[00:15:01]And you know, taking a look around you know, pound yen still in that rising channel.

[00:15:06]Aussie yen's in still in a rising channel. You know, kiwi yen same same thing. So they don't look broken as of yet. But the question is and I I know Kay Man and I were having this discussion yesterday and I can bring in Kay Man with a little bit of commentary here.

[00:15:22]Both you and I were looking for a little bit higher move in the US dollar Japanese yen before stepping into it.

[00:15:28]You still feel that same way cuz Yeah, I'm well actually bought a little bit of downside again just just in case that they get angry enough to to slap it back down.

[00:15:40]But I think the if you look at the the the the 15830 that's that's interesting because it's today the top end of the of the cloud and it coincides with if you trace a simple line from the last fair blow over over that low that we had last week. It it comes around that 15830 as well. I mean just just and just an observation.

[00:16:08]And it's roughly around there. And so maybe those levels the top end of the daily cloud can can drag them back out of their um out of their office and into the market maybe, you know. Um it it would be in current situation would be a bit of a surprise if they let it go all the way back up to 160 um just because it's is that fresh. And it would be I don't think they will want the market to just undo what they have done last week.

[00:16:43]Okay. All right. Very good. And I I mean these are areas that you know, hopefully we can get some sort of decent retracement with with the here. Let me go ahead and get rid of the cloud here.

[00:16:53]We can we can get a little bit more of a retracement in the yen and give us some opportunities to to sell at higher levels. I was I was thinking about yesterday, you know, selling some yen as we were approaching the 15750. The problem is and then this is what we're seeing right now as we're seeing a little bit of squeeze. Everybody's like oh crap, you know, here we are above 15750. We're we're going to get a little bit of a squeeze now. But at any moment you could find yourself on the the wrong side of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan. So you know, if we can get a a little bit of a lift towards 15810 maybe 15850 maybe that'll give you that opportunity kind of what Kay Man was talking about just a moment ago.

[00:17:34]Um you know, taking another I just you know, want to take a view around some of the other markets really quick. You know, the S&P again is grinding up in this rising channel. This is the way that at least I'm viewing it near term, you know, while we're above I would say 7150. There's zero reason to be on the the the bearish side. Um you know, we are you know, getting some obviously positive comments I guess from from the Trump administration.

[00:18:01]Um you know, with Hex Seth and I the the the top US General Kane. He just said commercial vessels will feel the US combat power around them on sea and in the skies. You know, just trying to give comfort to the rest of market to start moving you know, things through the straight.

[00:18:18]Although the movement through the straight has been very minimal thus far. We haven't seen much movement. Hopefully I think that'll change and maybe that'll give the equities a little bit of a further boost to the upside. You know, if you're looking around just like gold and silver they're they're recovering just a little bit. You can see we had gold coming off that 50% retracement with support from last week. We're you know, finding that support again today around the same levels. Silver's you know, it's acting all right. I guess it's holding up. It's not really going anywhere. But it's at least not not selling off too aggressively. You know, you got crude oil is eased but still you know, here let's go to the futures really quick. You you still got crude oil. I I would I would consider this a bullish consolidation. If you if you're like well, you know, we're not you know, we're we're pulling back a little bit.

[00:19:13]We are but are we really? I mean I I I still would view this more as a nice little consolidation and you know, frankly still looks pretty damn bullish if you ask me.

[00:19:24]I I think crude will ease once you start to see you know, the Strait of Hormuz open up a little bit more freely which we just haven't seen as of yet. One of the other things that's got my attention and I posted this in the Forex Analytics chat room.

[00:19:38]If you're if you scroll up, you'll see some of the charts that I posted just you know, earlier this morning. Is the 30-year yield. I mean take a look at take a look at the 30-year yield. We're up at 5% right now.

[00:19:51]And um, you know, the 10-year yield's not too far away, you know, from from from recent trend highs, either. You can see that the 10-year yield is nice and perky, as well. Um, so what is uh overall, um, Kayman, what do you think is driving, you know, this this move lower in in uh in in fixed income? I mean, you got obviously we're in a structurally very bearish market when you're talking about the the 10-year notes here. 30-year 30-year bonds, very very bearish uh situation. Um, but what do you think is going to continue to drive these lower and yields higher?

[00:20:29]Uh it's it's the drag of the the drag of the war, and um when it bites, you need money to compensate for uh for for what uh you still have to pay, and uh so if you don't have the supplies, it needs to come from somewhere. So uh you probably need to borrow a bit more, and I I think it's it's just to just a simple math math uh thing right now. Um as far as long as the conflict drags on, uh it's going to be hard for the for the for the years to come off, unless unless we are seeing uh uh an a sharp drop-off in uh in in growth-related uh data, like for instance, um the end of the week or so. But I mean, I'm not saying it's going to happen this week, but if you would see like a very negative um NFP number, for instance, that is something that that should put uh uh pressure on the on the yields, at least temporarily. So um yeah, for the for the time being, it's just it's just a drag on uh on everything, and um yeah, I guess it's it's it's rather to find there. I wonder when it's going to start to bite. Like when like when do these higher yields really start to bite the real economy?

[00:21:44]Mhm. That's always a difficult question, because people are saying it's got like a 6-month lag or a 3-month lag. I I don't think we can pinpoint a timeline on it, but um I'd argue it's it's probably for for a part of the communities, it's it's already happening, you know. Um I think there's a 2-year lag.

[00:22:05]>> higher um Yeah, energy prices, uh higher food prices, etc. etc. Yeah, yeah, it's it's it's going to be really really interesting to see what happens with yields. As a matter of fact, I you know, Steve is here, and he might have some comments regarding what's happening with uh with fixed income and yields. Hey, Steve, good morning.

[00:22:26]Good morning. All yields have been uh moving higher.

[00:22:31]Uh so it's you know, it it's it's a move we've seen unfolding as long as this situation is developing.

[00:22:41]I think it's only natural. Uh you know, the repercussions to uh inflation are obvious. Uh for every day that passes, the energy prices remain elevated.

[00:22:54]And yes, eventually that is also going to uh of course have an impact to the economy.

[00:23:01]That is the big danger out there that >> [snorts] >> equity markets seem to be you know, refusing to acknowledge at the moment. Uh Uh um at least >> [snorts] >> having a way more optimistic you know, approach to the thing.

[00:23:19]Uh but you know, we we can all appreciate and understand the dangers of that, right?

[00:23:26]Um and it's exactly what Kayman said.

[00:23:31]Um I think the only way that >> [snorts] >> this is going to reverse is uh once we start seeing uh if we get to that, an impact to the economy, because then uh the market will start to have price will have to start pricing in uh a totally different approach, uh you know, from the side of um monetary policy.

[00:24:00]Yeah, I mean, what point what what point does the the uh the Fed, you know, implement some sort of yield curve control? Uh is uh is is going to be the question, especially if we if we do see like US 10-year yields, you know, back at 5%, and if they break through that, I mean, you know, at what point what what point do do central banks have to try to put a put a put a cap on all of these moves? I mean, you you're I I'm just showing you guys across like the rest of the world, um and we're just seeing, you know, this this you know, rise in yields, you know, pretty much globally.

[00:24:32]It's it's I don't know about yield curve control, but you know, the easy usual recipe going back to you know, quantitative easing to begin with, etc. is definitely you know, going to be the first response.

[00:24:51]Yeah. All right. Well, >> This this is a this is a learning curve, or this is a learning opportunity for a lot of inexperienced traders.

[00:24:59]Cuz you can you can handle yields up in the four and if four and a half percent in the US when you got growth between two and three, four percent.

[00:25:08]It's a different situation when you got growth at 0.2%.

[00:25:12]And this is what you're going to see across a lot of countries.

[00:25:16]You know, the the US can suffer high yields because they've got that growth.

[00:25:21]The UK can't suffer those high yields cuz we got no full growth.

[00:25:25]And on top of that, you're going to have countries potentially raising rates.

[00:25:28]Look at the RBA.

[00:25:30]Okay, their their growth rate is is 0.8%.

[00:25:34]Okay, or annually 2.6%.

[00:25:37]Um they've just hiked rates to 4.35%. They could take rates as high as 4.7%.

[00:25:44]Um so this is a litmus test for what is going to happen to countries' economies when central banks start raising, yields start going higher, um if they don't have the growth to accompany that. And you're going to see that in a lot of currencies and a lot of uh of uh divergence in terms of rates and where investors are going to put their money, because as I say, countries like Australia, countries like the UK, uh particularly Europe, if they haven't got the economies to afford those higher rates and paying that interest, there's only trouble ahead. But the US might not see that sort of trouble.

[00:26:20]Yeah.

[00:26:23]My my My only uh you know, my only difference in in the way I see things with what you just expressed, Ryan, uh is that uh I I don't think the US has less of a problem. I think all of them are in really deep And one of the main reasons is because none of those numbers are uh real.

[00:26:48]Right? Because the reported inflation is much much much much lower than the actual inflation, and hence the reported growth is much much higher than the actual growth. And somebody will say, "Yeah, but the market only cares about what is being reported."

[00:27:04]And that's partially true. In the short to medium term, that is indeed the case.

[00:27:10]But uh what remains a fact is the following, is that in the Western world, policies are dictated by political decisions. Political decisions are being dictated by voter uh sentiment. And voter voter sentiment is getting worse because of the real numbers, right? Because because the voter, the citizen feels the real numbers, irrespective of what you tell them they are.

[00:27:45]Yeah. No, I I understand and agree with that, but like you say, you we have to deal with what what is on paper, and that's what the market moves on. And I'm just saying from an educational point of view, you know, it's it's easy to to work it out. Okay, countries, think of a country like a business.

[00:27:59]Okay, they've borrowed money, then they need to pay off that debt. They pay off that debt by making income. Growth is is a country's income via tax receipts and all that sort of thing. If you've got an income, it makes paying your debt much easier. If you haven't got that income, it's going to make paying that debt much harder. And that's where you're going to get the divergences uh between the economies. Who is going to suffer the most for higher yields? And the US is is going to be uh further down the ladder than some of the others. And then speaking of And you just described the healthy approach to it. Indeed.

[00:28:32]Indeed.

[00:28:34]Government economics should be no different than any company economics, right? Unfortunately, that has not been the case, because in essence, we allow government accounting to have completely different rules than company accounting. And that's one of the main reasons that has led to this situation that practically any country you look at and project a few decades into the future, the 99% of them are completely bankrupt.

[00:29:05]Well, let's let's shift gears really quick, and let's talk about um like what's happening right now in the UK. Um what what's what's the most recent with Starmer, uh Ryan?

[00:29:18]Um well, he decided to put out a uh call it a notice or whatever for all his party to get behind him, because they don't want to end up ending up like the conservatives and shoot themselves in the foot, um which went down pretty much like a lead balloon. It's basically a please don't sack me uh plea he put out in the press.

[00:29:38]Um we've got these elections on Thursday.

[00:29:41]Um none of it matters in terms of the government's strength in Parliament, cuz they're for England, they're all mayoral and council elections. So, it's going to be seen as as more of a opportunity for a protest vote, hence why he's predicted to do so badly.

[00:29:57]Um and the question's going to be after that, A, how badly does he do?

[00:30:02]Um it's a it's a pretty low bar, so there is a some risk that he doesn't do as badly as as everyone's expecting. Um but if he does do badly, does that mean his party going to force him out? Who will replace him? Will they kick out the Chancellor who for some strange reason is seen as fiscally responsible at the moment? And um then we'll know whether the the pound's going to see some action. Um but apart from maybe in in rate futures, we're not seeing that much political trading in the quid at the moment. Um >> Ryan, since you have boots on the ground, what is your personal feeling about it?

[00:30:41]About the elections, I mean.

[00:30:43]Oh, we're >> [laughter] >> Put it put it frankly.

[00:30:50]>> [laughter] >> Yeah, oh, we're screwed. But um Yeah, no no one's happy with him. I think it we it's we're going to see how unhappy the population are with him. Um and that could send some shockwaves through investors, you know, foreign investors and the like. Um if he's looking like he's he's really on the borrowed time and the alternative might might be worse.

[00:31:14]So, so you think that if we're going to see anything in Sterling, it's going to be towards the end of the week then?

[00:31:20]Yeah, any any time from now if, you know, watch the news, see what headlines come out. Um as I say, I think we're seeing a a bit of movement in Sonias on the back of it. Um I haven't really seen much in the quid. The the price action thus far hasn't suggested that we've seen any sort of political uh positioning or whatever.

[00:31:39]Um but you know, the clock's ticking down to Thursday, so we we might see a late uh some late moves.

[00:31:45]All right. Thank thank you, Ryan. Really appreciate it. Um real real quick uh guys, we have we have just some trade balance numbers. They're they should not move the needle at all. Again, these are March numbers, both US and Canadian data. I think I think Canada's also March data, if I'm not mistaken. Um but that's not the data that we're really concerned with today. We we want we want to see the ISM data and the JOLTS data that that will come out in about an hour and a half from right now.

[00:32:13]Um but really quick, I I do want to reference that we're getting a nice bid in Bitcoin. Bitcoin is above 80,000. Um and what's interesting is Bitcoin, I would say, is right at, you know, trying to push above this channel resistance. I have I have like a big resistance zone ahead of the 200 DMA, which comes in around 83,000. So, I think this is going to be really big because you know, we've we've said, "Hey, if we can get above 80,000 and above the 200 DMA, we might actually trade back up toward towards 100,000." And that seems entirely possible with Bitcoin.

[00:32:44]Um but you know, what's interesting is you're not seeing Ethereum follow through. I mean, Ethereum is trading really heavy. Maybe we're going to get a little bit of a catch-up. Maybe Ethereum is going to get closer to 26, 2700, you know, which would be channel resistance, previous support. Uh keep an eye on Ethereum. Maybe it wants to play a little bit of catch-up with Bitcoin. So, I think that's this is a big development that we're seeing. You know, it's it's like finally, you know, you have equities at all-time highs, you know, consistently at all-time highs. Why why hasn't Bitcoin uh played follow through? And it you know, it it looks like it is. So, US trade balance came in a little worse than expected. Canadian trade balance a little bit better than expected. Not seeing any movement coming through the markets at this moment. Uh like I said, I wasn't expecting it as far as today goes.

[00:33:31]Um we are, you know, kind of looking ahead.

[00:33:35]Uh let me let me bring in Cayman just real quick. K, what what are you looking at today? Any anything that that that's jumping out at you? Like one, you know, idea trade idea that you might be thinking about today?

[00:33:48]Um yeah, I'd I'd say look at the the Well, of course, prices will probably be uh ex pretty explosive in the in the ISM, but I I still continue to look at the employment index in there because of NFPs coming out. Um JOLTS is a bit of a is a bit of a lagger, right?

[00:34:08]Um So, yeah. Um Rather the employment uh new orders should still be high because of the uh people people wanting to get stuff in before they can't get their hands on it anymore. Um That's about it in the in the ISM. Um And if I may, just one other one, we have uh unemployment data out of New Zealand later today. Yeah.

[00:34:34]Earlier evening, I think. Um that may be a an interesting one as as uh Aussie Kiwi may be trying to make to make a bit smart where the next move will come from.

[00:34:48]Yeah, speaking of Aussie Kiwi, we're in this big, you know, strong rising channel. We're trying to push out of the ascending Yeah.

[00:34:55]Um but I mean, overall, I mean, this is just a this is a massive breakout. I mean, if you look on a weekly basis, this is a big breakout that the Aussie Aussie Kiwi has been in. Um obviously approaching some pretty pretty key upside resistance here.

[00:35:10]Um but still looks really good. Yeah, I still think we could we could potentially reach that that mid 123's where we find the uh Sorry, [clears throat] the long-term 61.8, right?

[00:35:21]Yeah, yeah. And it's not it's not too far away, but you got a couple hundred pips before we get up there. Really interesting look. Um Ryan, what are you up to today? What are you looking at going into today's market?

[00:35:34]Um going in today, I'm keeping a video on this this dollar yen. Um I've still got a a 158 option running.

[00:35:42]Um so, if they give that a smack, um I'm I might take some further profit on that.

[00:35:50]Alternatively, I'm actually happen to be looking at some calls. If we do get another smackdown, um because we do get these bounces back, uh I might look at a cheeky cheap call, you know, 158 and a half, 159, something like that um on a cheap one just in case we get another bounce. It's a cheap way of of going long uh dollar yen without uh facing a boot right round your head if they do intervene again.

[00:36:17]And technically speaking, I just I want everybody to I mean, I've been telling our traders since last week, since last week's intervention, 155.50 is the the end-all, be-all. Like there's no reason to be uh bullish if you get below there, but while you're while you're above 155.50, take a look at the confluence that that's there.

[00:36:39]Right? You have the rising trend line that's been in place since you know, 2025.

[00:36:45]You got a 61.8 retracement of this entire move, right? 161% extension of the the recent range, right? The there's your low to high to false breakout led to a breakdown. 161% extension there, rising trend line. Intervention bids keep finding themselves there at 155.50.

[00:37:05]You get below there, look out. I mean, then that's going to open up all sorts of downside. But what Ryan's saying makes sense. If we get a little bit of intervention move, if you will, and we get pushed back down towards, let's say, sub 156, why not pick up a cheap call? Because, you know, market's been supported down there every every day since last week, right, Ryan?

[00:37:28]Yeah, you you don't want to get into spot because if uh if they are intervening again, it's probably going to go through that and you know, 153's probably your next stop. Um and then you're waving whatever lost money yen calls. Um so, yeah. Look, we traded options to get an intervention, to profit from an intervention, and you can use it on the other way as well.

[00:37:51]Yeah, very good. All right. And and I did get a request to look at volatility or or the VIX. VIX has been nonexistent.

[00:37:59]I I don't get excited about volatility till you're back above 20. You get above 20, then, you know, if if if for some reason VIX starts trading above 20, uh and you got that heightened volatility, then you got to start looking at, you know, are we going to see some downside? Would we see the S&P possibly break below channel support?

[00:38:18]Maybe then you look at that if if if that happens. But volatility, you know, sub 20, that means we're in a pretty quiet market and we'll probably continue to grind higher. Uh I do want to say that as long as we're above, you know, 7050, which is right here, as long as we are above this level in the S&P, there is zero reason to be on the short side or even be thinking about uh being bearish. Now, today, remember, ISM's going to be a big deal. Um you know, the the US dollar is still also is is acting as a defensive mechanism. Should there be any, you know, any um uh military in, you know, enhanced uh kinetic type of activity around Iran, just keep that in mind. Dollar seems very well supported, but also, you know, our economic data here in the US has not been necessarily disappointing. We uh continue to to show up with with decent data. And if that continues today, you know, that could take the dollar index back up towards, you know, you can see the little 4-hour chart, it'd take us back up towards 99. So, I'd be looking for further dollar strength right now.

[00:39:23]Dollar acts as a a hedge, you know, against military kinetic activity. It also acts as a little bit more of a safe haven as a result of that. And our economic data has not been disappointing as of late.

[00:39:37]So, if the ISM data is strong, JOLTS data looks decent, we could see a nice little boost in the dollar uh which could put, you know, us back up towards 99 or the euro dollar maybe back down towards, you know, 116.50, 116.60 which as you can see is really critical support for the dollar or for the euro in my opinion which is only about 30 pips away. Um with that being said, you know, the the week is going to get more active as we as we move along in my opinion because like I said we have ISM data today. Keiman pointed out we have New Zealand employment tomorrow or tonight rather. It's going to be tonight in in in North America if you will. Tomorrow's ADP data we will be covering live here on the face show and then as we go into the rest of the week with unemployment claims then, you know, the jobs data on Friday.

[00:40:28]It's going to be a a nice busy week as we continue on. So, Ryan, Keiman, Steve, thank you gentlemen for joining us today. I want to I want to thank all of our traders that are listening in from all around the globe. You guys are awesome. Thank you all for for being with us every day through the face show.

[00:40:46]If you're in if you're a Forex Analytics subscriber, we're going to see you on the morning edge. Steve and I will see you in a just a little bit over 30 minutes from now.

[00:40:55]And everybody good luck today. Thanks for tuning in. Steve, Keiman, Ryan, thank you gentlemen. Appreciate you.

[00:41:01]>> Cheers. Thanks, mate. Cheers. All right, guys. Have a great one and we'll catch you tomorrow on the face show and good luck everybody. Happy turnaround Tuesday. See you tomorrow.