The SHOCKING 2026 Senate Map Based On The Newest Polls! | The TEC Show

Added: 2026-05-16

[00:00:00]What's going on everyone? Welcome back to the show. So, I am in my old set, but new set for you guys. If you haven't been watching me for very long, you probably don't recognize this set, but this is actually my old set that I was using before. Now, I'm going to get back to using it. I'll be still using the other the other set or the the kitchen, but I'll do the kitchen. I'll do this one as well. You guys let me know which one you like better. But, uh, today I want to talk about Michigan. I want to talk about what's going on in the Democratic primary. And I had someone send me a comment and this is from I guess it's LJ Pi T. I don't know. But anyway, let's go ahead. I want to take a look at this. And the reason I want to go over this comment is because I've heard this before. I've heard this from some people in the comments and I've even heard this, you know, watching some of the different news outlets. I've heard the same thing. And so, we're going to go over this today. I'm going to break it all down. We'll take a look at the polling and everything, but when it comes to the Senate race in Michigan, this is what LJ says. He says, "The problem is Michigan Elsed leads in polls in Dim's primary. I have not seen a single poll in which he leads the Republican candidate. If Elsed is the candidate, will moderate Democrats stay away or even support Mike Rogers?" And so, that is LJ's question. And so, we're going to take a look. We'll take a look at the polling. We'll see what's going on when it comes to the Senate race in Michigan. And right now, we don't know what's going to happen. We're just looking at polling information, but we can learn a little bit from polling. If we if we see a variety of different pollsters saying the same thing, usually that means that it's it's it's pretty accurate. So, we're going to take a look at the polling. We'll see if LJ is on the right track when it comes to uh what's going on. And then we'll take a look at the Senate map. Of course, I want to go over Michigan and why Michigan is important for Democrats to defend. So, that's what we're going to focus on in this video. But first off, if you guys can do me a favor, please like the video. And if you're watching this video and you want to see more content like this, please consider subscribing to the channel. Okay, so let's go ahead and take a look at some of the latest polling. We're using 270 to win. And when we're looking at the Democratic side, the latest poll that was conducted on 511 2026, 405 likely voters. So the sample size is pretty small there. However, and it's uh Mitchell research, I should have said that. Now, Elsed 28%.

[00:02:32]McMaro 17%.

[00:02:35]Stevens 18% and then other is 37%. So you see Elsa has a huge lead over both McMaro and Stevens. Now Stevens was the front runner. She was the front runner just a couple of months ago and now this race is really tightened and now we're seeing Elsa winning one poll. We're seeing McMaro winning a poll. We're seeing Stevens winning a poll. So that's how this is really going right now. And so let's go ahead and look at this Glenn Glen Garif group. This was conducted on 421 2026.

[00:03:08]500 likely voters. Margin of error there, it's important to note, is plus or minus 4.49%.

[00:03:14]We have Elsed at 23%. McMaro at 16%, Stevens at 25% and then other at 36%. So you see here Elsed and Stevens are at the top. So Stevens is number one, Elsad is right behind her and then McMarl.

[00:03:33]Looking at this Emerson poll, this was conducted on 416 2026.

[00:03:38]We have uh 519 likely voters plus or minus uh so margin of error is 4.3%.

[00:03:46]We have Elsad at 24%. McMaro at 24% and look at this Stevens at 13%. And so you see the polling is all over the map. We don't know exactly what's going and that's why this race right now, the Democratic primary, this is a tossup because we're seeing one poll showing one thing, another poll showing something else, and another poll showing uh something something else. So, we don't really know what's going on here.

[00:04:11]So, data for progress. Let's take a look at that one. That was conducted on 415 2026. 515 likely voters. Margin of error there is plus or minus 4%. You have Elsa at 22%.

[00:04:25]You have McMar at 22%. Then you have Stevens at 23%. And so once again, we're seeing polling all over the place when it comes to these candidates. One thing that we need to look at too is we need to look at the margin of error. Look at the margin of error in these plus and minus 4, plus or - 4.3, plus or minus 4.4. So we're seeing margins of error that are like that. This this race is truly a tossup. And so if we look and I didn't do the average, let's look at the average at the top here. So the average of polls is showing Elsed at 24.3%.

[00:05:00]McMaro at 19.8% and Stevens at 19.8%.

[00:05:05]And so Elsie does have the lead. If we're looking at the latest polling, if we're taking the average of the latest polling, Elsad does have the lead. Okay.

[00:05:14]Now, when we go to the general, when we look at the general, if we go down, and what I'll do is I'll just go down to Elsa. Okay, so let's go ahead and take a look at the latest poll. So, the latest poll here is the Glen Griffith Group uh poll. This was conducted on 512, 2026.

[00:05:30]Now, before we go further, look at the other polls. They were conducted, the one before that was uh January 29th.

[00:05:39]Okay? So, that's a little while ago. So, things have changed. So, if we're just going with the latest poll, and I don't really like to do this, but we'll go with the latest poll. We'll we'll take a look at the margin of error, and we'll see exactly where we are. But if we take a look at the latest poll on 512, you have 600 likely voters. So, it's good that they're likely voters. Margin of air here is plus or minus 4%. We'll get back to that in a second. Elsie at 40%.

[00:06:04]Rogers at 45%.

[00:06:07]Other at 15%. So, we have other at 15%.

[00:06:10]So, we don't know where those votes are going to go. If we're looking at this, Rogers does have a lead, 45% to 40%.

[00:06:18]But, if we throw in a margin of error, we could see a shift. Okay, this is still too close to call, believe it or not, because this is within that margin of error. And I'll show you why. If Rogers, let's say the margin of error was, you know, let's say the the the poll was off with Rogers and instead of Rogers being at 45%. Because understand this, if Rogers is at 45%, he could be at 49%.

[00:06:46]Or he could be at 41%.

[00:06:49]Okay? When we're looking at Elsad, Elsed could be at what is that 36%.

[00:06:57]or Elsed could be at 44%.

[00:07:01]So if Elsed is at 44% and Rogers is at 41%.

[00:07:08]Then Elsed has the lead. He's within that margin of error. And so even looking at this and saying, "Okay, Elsed is not he's not leading in this poll."

[00:07:18]We still see that Elsa is within that margin of error. And so if we're just looking and when we're looking at just one poll, I like to look at the margin of error because it means something. You know, it it gives you an idea. Now, when we're looking at multiple polls, then we can kind of we can see where the wind is blowing. We can see most of the polls are coming out and they're saying the same thing. And if they're coming out and they're saying the same thing, then that leads me to believe that it's, you know, that margin of error is still there. But we can look and see okay most of the polls are saying pretty much the identical thing and if they are then it's you know it just gives more weight to to the polls. So in this situation since we did the latest poll was in in May but the poll before that was in January. If we go down even looking at the January poll you see Elsa at 43%.

[00:08:11]You see Rogers at 43% and then you see other at 14%. The margin of error there is plus or minus three. You have 1,000 likely voters and this is the Emerson poll. So it's a you know it's a good pollster. And so that's showing me that back in January, we saw the race was a tossup, you know, a clear tossup at this point. And now in that latest poll, we see that Rogers is at 45% and it looks like Elsa has dropped a little bit. But like I said, when we're looking at the margin of error, we could be looking at a situation where Elsed and Rogers are neck andneck. It's closer, much closer than what it appears. Now if we go and look at some of the other candidates you have the same poll here conducted on 512 600 likely voters plus or minus 4% you have McMaro at 41 you have Rogers at 43 and then you have other at 16%. So you see I mean this is pretty similar to what we were seeing with Elsa in the same scenario here plus or minus margin of error plus or minus 4%. So we we can't really get too much from that just based on the margin of error. So this is still a tossup. Now looking at the Emerson poll, that was the one that was conducted in January, 1,000 likely voters plus or minus 3% and we have McMar at 46. We have Rogers at 43 and then we have other at 11. But then again, we have that margin of error at 3%, which means that Rogers could be 3% higher, which would mean that he would be at 46. McMar is at 46. She could be 3% higher than that, so she could be at 49, or she could be 3% below that, so she could be under Rogers. So, this is within that margin of error as well.

[00:10:04]Okay, let's move up and let's take a look at Stevens. So with Stevens, uh, we have that same poll here at five on 512 2026 and that's 600 likely voters plus or minus 4%, Stevens is at 42%, Rogers is at 44% and then other is at 14%. Same scenario within that margin of error. If we take a look at the Emerson poll in January, 1,000 likely voters plus or minus 3%, you have Stevens at 46. You have Rogers at 42, you have other at 11%. In this scenario, if the the best that Rogers could do, I mean, if we're looking at the margin of error is he would be at 45%. And if we're looking at Stevens in this poll with Emerson, she could be at, let's see, minus 3. So, she could be at 44%.

[00:10:55]And so this one still falls within that margin of error if we're looking at the margin of error. And so when we're looking at the polling, just because we see one candidate at 45%, the other candidate at 44%, if there's a plus or minus 4%, realistically it's still considered a tossup. But when we start looking at other polls, that's when we get a better idea of where the wind is blowing. We don't have enough polls coming out of Michigan. And once we start getting more recent polls, then we'll have an idea of where this is going. So, I have an update and this always happens. I record a video and then there's an update. So, I'm making this update. This is the latest poll.

[00:11:35]So, we have Mitchell Research here.

[00:11:37]We're going to take a look. So, we were talking about Elsed. I'll start at the very top and then we'll work our way down. So the first one we're looking at here is Stevens versus Rogers. And this is the Mitchell research. As we stated, this was conducted on 514 2026. 607 likely voters. Now look at the margin of error here. Plus or minus 6%. That's really high. Stevens is at 39. Rogers is at 42. And then other is at 19%. And then when we look at the average right above there, we see the average Stevens is at 40.5. Rogers is at 43%.

[00:12:20]Okay, let's move down to McMaro. McMaro this Mitchell research again 514 2026 607 likely voters plus or - 6%. McMaro is at 41%.

[00:12:34]Rogers is at 43%.

[00:12:36]other is at 16% and then when we look at the average of the last two polls we see McMaro at 41% and Rogers at 43%.

[00:12:47]Now let's move down to Elsed Elsed. So Mitchell research once again 514 2026 likely voters margin of errors plus or minus 6%. You have Elsa at 41%. You have Rogers at 42%. Then you have other at 17%. If we look at the average of the last two polls, you have Elsed at 40% or 40.5% and you have Rogers at 43.5%.

[00:13:17]So you see the latest poll and we were just looking at the the 40% the 40% to 45%. The latest poll is showing 41% 42% and then that large margin of error. So this is still considered a tossup but in this latest polling it does show that the race is tightening if you want to look at it that way. Even though as I stated that margin of error is I mean that could be we could be looking at Elsa at 47 uh% we could be looking at Rogers at 48%.

[00:13:54]And so because of that large margin of error we don't know exactly where that's going and they could be it could be reversed. So we could be looking at Elsa at 35% or Rogers at 36%. So I just wanted to bring that to your attention. doesn't really change anything, but I wanted to give you the latest polling that's out there. And so, LJ, in this situation, I would say all the candidates on the Democratic side, all the candidates, you know, they're running in the primary, they're they're pretty much very similar, okay? And Stevens was the front runner. So, back in January, Stevens had the highest numbers. However, we've seen that shift and now we're looking at Elsed, we're looking at McMaro, and they're doing much better in the polling. And so realistically, no matter who wins, if it's Elsa, if it's McMaro, even if it's Stevens, they still have an opportunity to beat Rogers. Now, it will be a very close race. And we're that's what we're seeing in the polling right now is showing us that this race is going to be very close. And Democrats need to win Michigan. And let me show you why. And so looking at this map, Democrats need to defend mainly three states. There are three states that are pretty close and they have to defend these three states and Michigan is one of them. And so if Democrats can defend these three states and then net four seats, then they will be able to take back control of the Senate. But if they can't defend Michigan or if they can't defend Georgia or New Hampshire, that is going to mean that it's going to be much harder for Democrats to take back control of the Senate because their pathway is going to be much more difficult. Let me just show you what I'm talking about. So, Democrats and independents right now at 47, Republicans at 53. If we saw a scenario where Rogers wins in Michigan, now Democrats are in a situation where we have Democrats and independents at 46, Republicans at 54, Democrats are going to have to do a lot of work in order to take back control of the Senate. Now, Democrats do have an advantage to flip two states, and we'll talk about that.

[00:15:57]So, if Democrats are able to defend Georgia and win, defend New Hampshire and win and then win in North Carolina, which right now they're the favorites to win in North Carolina, and then win in Maine. They're also the favorites to win in Maine, then we would be looking at Democrats and independents at 48, Republicans at 52. Now, Democrats need to win three more seats. Okay? And that's this is where it gets really difficult because now Democrats are in a situation where they they have to win in Alaska. They have a shot at winning in Alaska. And I think right now if you're looking at the polling, the polling is showing us that Pelah is ahead. Some of the polling is within that margin of error like we talked about. But we're still seeing Pelah consistently leading in the polls. So let's say Democrats are able to win in Alaska. Now we have Democrats and independents at 49.

[00:16:52]Republicans at 51. Remember, Democrats need to get to 51 seats. Okay?

[00:16:58]Republicans only need to get to 50 because they have the vice president that comes in and breaks the tie. And so now, let's look at what's left. But what do we have left? We have Texas. We have Ohio. We have Iowa. We have an independent Osborne in Nebraska. We have another independent in Montana. But realistically, Democrats right now, they're focused on Texas, Iowa, and Ohio. So, let's say Democrats, and out of these three, I think Democrats best chance is going to be with Shared Brown.

[00:17:29]It's going to be in Ohio. So, let's say Democrats are able to win in Ohio. That brings the seats to 50/50, but as I stated, Republicans would still maintain control because of the vice president.

[00:17:39]And so, now you see where this gets difficult because now Democrats need to win another seat. They need to win in Texas or Iowa. I think if we're looking at Texas or Iowa, I think Terico has momentum right now. I think you have voters that are very energized to vote for Terico. So, we could see something happen in Texas. And as I stated, and I stated this in previous videos, if we start seeing a wave, if we're seeing in North Carolina Democrats win in Maine, in Alaska, then it could come to a situation where we're seeing that voters have really shifted. And so if Terico is able to win in Texas, now we're looking at Democrats and independents at 51, Republicans at 49, Democrats take back control of the Senate. But that's without Michigan. That's what Democrats would have to do. They have to run the table and more in order to win. Now, if Democrats are able to win in Michigan, they do win in Michigan. Now, we're looking at a situation where they don't have to win Texas. They don't have to win Iowa. if they can win Alaska, if they can win North Carolina, if they can win Maine, if they can win Ohio, they can take back control of the Senate. And so that's why Michigan is very important because Michigan, they're going to have they they should have a better shot at winning in Michigan than winning in Texas or winning in Iowa. And so you want to be able to win in the states or at least defend one of the states that you have the bested the best opportunity to win in. And so hopefully I answer your question when it comes to Elsa. If we're looking at Elsa, if we're looking at McMaro, if we're looking at Stevens, realistically right now, I think Elsied has just as good a chance of of beating Rogers as the other two. So, I want to know what you guys think. Let me know in the comments below. If you like this video, please give me a thumbs up.

[00:19:25]Please subscribe for more. And remember, stay informed, stay engaged, and I'll talk to you in the next one. Bye. So, that's all we have for this video. Make sure if you guys want to send me an email, you can do that. davidthetow.com.

[00:19:36]Like the video, subscribe for more, and check out these videos over here for some more great content. Talk to you later. Bye.