Monday 10 AM Tropical Update: Tropical Depression 2 becoming better organized

[00:00:00]sponsored by Higen Botham Insurance and Financial Services.

[00:00:06]>> Good morning. We're breaking in as a result of the 10 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center on tropical depression 2. Not much new information in the last few minutes. Still 35 mileph winds classifying the system as a tropical depression, meaning it has not been upgraded to a tropical storm. When that happens, if that happens, the system will become Bertha. The gust however they have increased just a little bit now up to 45 miles an hour and we're seeing it 120 miles south of Panama City. So that was actually its location earlier this morning. It joged about 10 miles north and then once again returned further south. Has not increased speed at all around 3 miles an hour. And we continue with the track moving inland on Wednesday across southeast Louisiana. Right now the track looks to arrive in the eastern portion of our viewing area. So somewhere between Violet and Jean Lefit and the impacts will likely be pretty minimal for New Orleans proper. More concerning towards the coast, but even there possibly really minimal. It's going to depend on how the system behaves once it gets into the warmer waters of the Gulf over the next 24 hours. So we'll be watching it closely. The satellite and radar imagery showing it's just not moving a whole lot, but there is a clear spin. We do have tropical storm watches across the Florida panhandle that extend into the Mobile Bay. And the surge concerns for Florida and Alabama are about 1 to 3 feet. So, we don't have any official surge products out for Mississippi or Louisiana right now, but that would be my forecast for what you could expect in terms of the concern of coastal flooding locally. Again, those are the tropical storm watches in effect here in pink. And now they do extend into Mississippi and Louisiana. So, this is new with our update as well. That means you could be dealing with tropical storm conditions within the next 24 to 48 hours. We'll continue with more information on our stream. So, please join us there if you can, and we'll be back for our new newscast coming up in two hours.

[00:02:12]This has been a severe weather alert from WWL weather sponsored by Higen Botham Insurance and Financial Services.

[00:02:56]Good morning. Thank you for joining us on our WWL stream. The latest information on tropical depression 2 just in from the National Hurricane Center with its 10 a.m. advisory about 3 minutes ago. Not much has changed over the course of the morning. We've continued to see those 35 mileph sustained winds. Now the gusts are up to 45 miles an hour. Earlier this morning we saw them around 40 mph. The system is not moving very fast. It hasn't been all morning long and we see it around 3 miles an hour. So, you'll notice earlier this morning, if you were watching with us, the location was about 120 mi south of Panama City, but it did jog a little bit further north for just a brief window of time, and it's now back south.

[00:03:38]The center of this storm is going to continue to track further west, but you'll notice a lot of the associated heavy rainfall is on the eastern side and further south. So depending on where this center continues to move inland, we may not see a lot of impacts across parts of the metro area. We'll be watching this as Wednesday comes closer.

[00:03:58]Of course, this is still forecast to strengthen in intensity and become tropical storm Bertha at some point on Monday. You'll notice the track brings the system inland in between Violet and more than likely John Lefit. So, we'll be watching again for the possibility of it jogging a little bit further north or a little bit further south, both included in the cone. But the heaviest downpours are likely going to be offshore compared to inland. So, the highest rainfall forecast is going to be for our coastal locations, somewhere between about 2 and 4 in at best. We may not even see a full 2 in in the metro.

[00:04:36]And the Northshore may not see much rain at all. It just depends on how the center continues westward. So you'll notice the satellite radar picture at the moment showing a little bit of a better defined system. Again, a lot of the heaviest rain on the eastern side and the Florida panhandle has not really been dealing with flash flood concerns this morning. Same thing for this western coastline of Florida. The system is hardly moving at all. 3 miles an hour. Think about how slowly that would be in your car. And really, if you think about how long it takes to drive over to Panama City, it's about a 5h hour drive.

[00:05:07]So, this system is not far away for it to not even make landfall until 48 hours from now. And you'll notice on the radar picture, some of those heavier, more tropical bands in nature are still not causing major problems. So, our tropical storm warnings have also expanded a little bit south of Port St. Joe. But look at the watches. They now span from Port St. Joe a little bit further east all the way through Grand Isle. So including the Mississippi GF coast, parts of our viewing area on the eastern side down to the coastline, including the southernmost tip of the boot and Grandal. Now the tarpon rodeo is coming up this weekend. We should have all tropical impacts from this system well out of here before then. But you'll continue to notice those tropical storm conditions possible within the next two days. So here's a precision cast. Want to show you the latest model. It's not necessarily showing the system keeping its organization all the way westward, but you see how a lot of that heavier rain is well south of the southernmost tip of the boot and on this eastern side. If this forecast were to hold, we really would not have a lot of impacts inland. Now, certainly the surge possibilities could be between about 1 and 3 feet. That's been the case along the Florida panhandle and in the Mississippi Gulf Coast area. We're going to be watching for all of the areas that have a lot of property and camps that are raised, but that's where you would expect this type of surge to be happening. So, the lakes will probably fill up a little more than usual, but not anticipating major problems here. I do expect there to be more coastal flood advisories as we get into the next couple of days. That being said, your flood risk on Wednesday definitely a little bit higher closer to the coast.

[00:06:48]So, St. Bernard through Plaqueman's lower Jefferson, Terabone and Lefouch, you're going to have the higher opportunity for some of those storms to bring flood potential on the coastline.

[00:07:00]Otherwise, from Beluxy through Sidell and New Orleans up to Baton Rouge, we're in a marginal risk. So, a level one out of four for any flooding concerns. The 5-day rainfall forecast, again, not super impressive. We could see less than a half an inch on the Northshore, maybe an inch to an inch and a quarter on the Southshore and New Orleans proper and the Mississippi GF coast and then two to four inches areas near that track line just north or south. So, we'll be watching this very closely. Of course, want to remind you today it's going to be extremely hot. That's the other side of our active forecast. We had a lot of heat concerns over the weekend.

[00:07:37]temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and hot weather as a result going to bring us yet another heat advisory from now until 6 PM. So that went into effect at the top of the hour just like the latest advisory information. As we get into the heat of the afternoon, you can expect it to feel more like 108 to 112 once more. And we do have a weather impact alert issued for Wednesday because of this Gulf disturbance. So something to keep in mind, anywhere from 30 to 60% rain chances as we head into the next few days. Again, not necessarily everyone seeing rain on Wednesday. So this may become more of a surge and a wind issue than rain. Those temperatures anywhere from mid 90s to low 90s as we get into the extended outlook.

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