Kremlin's dilemma: How to explain its changing "military operation" goals to Russia?

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:02]How do you present defeat as victory and global isolation as the most important historical challenge?

[00:00:08]The main problem for the Kremlin is not just the situation on the front lines or drone strikes thousands of kilometers deep into Russia, but also the lack of an exit strategy from the military actions.

[00:00:20]How did Putin trap himself in this situation? How is the rhetoric of his cronies gradually changing? And what political consequences could all of this lead to? Let's break it down.

[00:00:33]On top of Russia's military failures and diplomatic setbacks, there are now budget shortfalls, public fatigue from the war and restrictions, and the inability to reinforce the front without mass mobilization.

[00:00:47]It's getting harder and harder to convince Russians that everything is under control, and Moscow is simply being forced to lower the bar for its goals in the war against Ukraine.

[00:00:55]According to the head of the president's office, Kyrylo Budanov, the new narrative that the Kremlin authorities are trying to push on their citizens is Ukraine's non-aligned status and its non-nuclear status. Supposedly, that's all they've been after all these years.

[00:01:11]Time passes in under the influence of reality.

[00:01:16]As time goes on and under the pressure of the unpleasant reality they're facing, they have to come up with answers for their society. And every time the bar gets lowered. Everyone can see it. About a week ago, if I'm not mistaken, yet another new narrative appeared. Ukraine must be a non-nuclear state and not join any military alliances. This is already a new ball.

[00:01:37]In other words, the bar is being lowered again, just a bit. That's normal because time goes on and obviously, since we're talking here right now, the goal hasn't been achieved.

[00:01:48]As the Dossier Center found out, staff from the Kremlin dictator's administration started working on the so-called image of victory back in February 2026.

[00:01:58]In the materials prepared by Sergey Kiriyenko's team, it is stated that further prolongation of the war carries serious risks for Russia itself, namely the likelihood of total mobilization, the complete shift of the economy to a war footing, worsening demographics, and rising taxes.

[00:02:15]So, the war needs to be ended, and citizens should be told everywhere that Russia has proven itself to be the most capable military power in the world, and has stood strong in a global confrontation against 50 countries.

[00:02:28]However, the authors of the document warn that in this situation, ultra-patriotic forces could become a source of internal threat for the authorities and their allies.

[00:02:41]To neutralize these people, the presidential administration has planned an emotional rebranding of the pro-government Z bloggers, and support for moderate voices in the media space.

[00:02:53]The rest will be threatened with liability for discrediting the army.

[00:02:56]According to the document, if peace is signed, ultra-patriots could shift in public rhetoric from being the main support of the authorities to becoming enemies of Russia, demanding war until total exhaustion. From a publication by the Dossier Center.

[00:03:11]And indeed, the so-called Z bloggers could become a huge problem for the Kremlin.

[00:03:16]We can recall how, at the beginning of this year, the head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, announced the capture of Kupyansk-Vuzlovoy.

[00:03:25]And what a storm of negative comments appeared in Russian social media groups afterward.

[00:03:31]All of them were about how Gerasimov's reports, to put it mildly, differ from the realities on the battlefield. The same thing happened after the Russian command announced, for the sixth time, the complete occupation of the Luhansk region.

[00:03:45]And now, the Ministry of Defense of the aggressor country has reported the alleged capture of the settlement of Borova in the Kharkiv region.

[00:03:53]The Moscow Times quoted one of the so-called war correspondents who wrote outright that all of this is a lie, that the village is controlled by Ukrainian forces.

[00:04:05]And the report video that was shown on federal channels was staged and was actually filmed in a different village 25 km away from Borova.

[00:04:16]Interestingly, the village of Kolomiychykha has played the role of a backdrop for false reports more than once.

[00:04:23]Previously, they filmed there to claim control over Novo Platnivskaya after a very unsuccessful assault. In the same way, footage from Tabolzhanka was presented as if it showed control over Kupyansk.

[00:04:34]From a publication by The Moscow Times.

[00:04:37]It's no surprise that even the secretary of Russia's security council, Sergey Shoigu, has started talking about Ukraine's non-aligned and neutral status without making any other demands.

[00:04:49]Exactly 2 years ago, after a major corruption scandal, he was dismissed from his post as minister of defense and has preferred to keep quiet ever since.

[00:04:59]After the May 9th parade, Putin himself also stated for the first time that the war supposedly is nearing its end.

[00:05:07]But, for example, the Telegraph columnist Owen Matthews believes that the Kremlin dictator has no clear plan for ending the war and his subordinates have no way to influence him.

[00:05:21]Even as Kremlin loyalists are actively preparing the ground for a post-war Russia, there is still a deafening silence from the top. Putin is so ideologically committed to the war and personally invested in it that he's driven not by rational analysis of costs and benefits, but by a fatal mix of stubbornness and paralysis. Worse still, Putin and his inner circle seem to be isolated not only from the people but also from their own elite.

[00:05:50]From a publication by The Telegraph.

[00:05:52]As early as this fall, the Kremlin may face a choice to announce a new large-scale mobilization or to pursue a peace agreement with Ukraine.

[00:06:00]Russian propaganda outlets are increasingly discussing exactly these two scenarios, essentially preparing society for possible tough decisions against the backdrop of the failure of Russia's spring offensive anxiety in society is growing and Putin's approval rating is steadily declining, writes Bloomberg.

[00:06:21]Additional pressure on the Kremlin is also coming from the growing effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, which are striking deep inside Russian territory.

[00:06:31]This nervous mood is shared by many members of the Russian elite. Moreover, some Kremlin officials believe that the conflict has reached a dead end and there is no clear path to resolve it.

[00:06:42]Putin, for his part, wants to end the war by the end of this year, but only on terms he considers a victory, including full control over the Donetsk region and a security agreement with Europe that would recognize his territorial gains.

[00:06:57]From a Bloomberg Agency publication.

[00:06:59]Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha also said that Russia's war against Ukraine is entering a turning point during a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council in Helsingborg. According to the Foreign Minister, Kyiv is counting on increased international pressure on Moscow and continued support from its allies.

[00:07:19]Sybiha emphasized that Ukraine continues to hold the line and Russia's numerical advantage no longer plays a decisive role in the course of the war.

[00:07:29]We are at a critical stage of the war and the pressure on Moscow is increasing. Ukraine is holding its positions and the number of Russian troops is no longer a decisive advantage. To achieve peace, we must focus on three key elements: diplomacy, pressure, and strength. We need a new push in our peace efforts. At the same time, we need to strengthen our targeted sanctions and other levers of influence.

[00:07:55]Andriy Sybiha, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on social network X.

[00:08:01]Meanwhile, the so-called special military operation, which the Kremlin expected to finish in a matter of days, is gradually turning into a source of new risks for the Russian authorities themselves.

[00:08:12]Frustration is growing even among those who until recently unconditionally supported the war and demanded its continuation at any cost.

[00:08:21]The promised victory is increasingly turning into an attempt to explain to Russians why the goals of the full-scale invasion of the neighboring country have to be constantly rewritten.

[00:08:33]And the harder the authorities try to maintain the illusion of control, the more obvious their fear and desperation become.

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