Rising US 10-year yields driven by inflation fears create a generational trading opportunity in USD/JPY, with the Bank of Japan's interventions limited in effectiveness; gold faces resistance at $4200 due to the inverse correlation with rising rates, while Bitcoin's technical inflection point depends on whether the US dollar strengthens or breaks above previous session highs.
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Chris's Picks: US 10Y, USD/JPY, Gold and Bitcoin on the Watch List Today
Added:This is Christopher Lewis from FX Empire and this is what I'm watching today.
But first, a quick word from our sponsor. This video is brought to you by Xness, the world's leading retail brokerage firm offering ultra-fast execution, no overnight fees. So, follow the link in the description below. The US 10-year yield is where I'm beginning this video. We continue to see the 10-year uh yield climb and that has major implications as to what could happen next. This is mainly driven by inflation fears, especially energy inflation and I think that is something that will remain the story for a while.
We are at 4.64% roughly.
As we roll over into the New York session, the US dollar initially fell against the Japanese yen, only to see buyers come back in and I am looking to add to an already existing long position that started near the beginning of the year. I continue to add every time it dips. The Bank of Japan has intervened a couple of times, but quite frankly, there's not a lot they can do. All they can do is slow this down. This is a generational trade. I'm aiming for 224, so every day is a good day for me to start looking for opportunities to get long.
Does it happen quickly? No, of course not. So, you have to look at price action for what it is and during the early part of the session, we've seen a bit of a sell-off and a return to bullish pressure. To me, that shows buyers are still looking to get involved. Gold is a market I'll be watching today because there has been some resistance at $4200 and with those rates rising, the correlation, typically at least, is that higher rates not good for gold because it makes the US dollar stronger.
We'll see. We'll see how this plays out.
Looks like there's a bit of an argument in the markets right now as to whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to continue to hike. Futures traders believe that the future hikes can be almost guaranteed this year. There are traders in other markets that don't seem to believe that.
Gold recently has formed a double bottom. So that is something worth paying attention to. Above 4200 might change my thesis.
Bitcoin struggles a bit here at the same place it did previously. Will this send Bitcoin lower?
If the US dollar strengthens, then that adds more credence to a short trade here. If the market breaks above the highs of the previous session on Tuesday, that could be a sign that Bitcoin has finally turned the corner.
We'll just have to wait and see. Right now though, I'm watching this because we are at a major point of inflection. My name's Christopher Lewis. I work for FX Empire. If you enjoyed this, thumbs up and subscribe.
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