Thank El Niño for latest U.S. forecast for Atlantic hurricane season

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]The time is ticking down to the June 1st start of hurricane season in the Atlantic and NOAA's first forecast for it is finalized. Karen Kefa is in Washington with the outlook for the upcoming tropical storm season.

[00:00:15]From fires to tornadoes to flooding, 2026 has already seen a deluge of wicked weather. And with the Atlantic hurricane season just over a week away, the National Oceanic Atmospheric is outlook a below average season with the potential for 8 to 14 named storms. Of those, three to six hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes, category three or above. Even though we're expecting a below average season in the Atlantic, it's very important to understand that it only takes one.

[00:00:45]We have had category fives make landfall in the past during below average seasons. But the reason for the anticipated quiet in the Atlantic is also concerning, a budding moderate to strong El Niño and the above average cyclone season in the Pacific. In the Eastern Pacific, we're expecting 15 to 22 named storms, 9 to 14 hurricanes, 5 to 9 major hurricanes. And in the Central Pacific, we're expecting 5 to 13 tropical cyclones.

[00:01:13]This weather pattern is expected to redraw global weather maps, sparking flooding for some and drought and wildfires for others. The forecast come amid ongoing upheaval at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which President Donald Trump pushed to dismantle in 2025, but with Secretary Mark Wayne Mullen and now at the helm of the Department of Homeland Security, the administration is working to stabilize and reform FEMA. For its part, NOAA says it is ready for whatever Mother Nature has in store.

[00:01:41]In Washington, I'm Karen Kefa.