Why the US “box-in strategy” won’t work on China

Added: 2026-05-16

[00:00:00]There's also this school of thought from people adjacent to the administration that what we've done with Iran and also with Venezuela is somehow designed to box China in.

[00:00:08]Right?

[00:00:08]That we're picking off their partners one by one.

[00:00:10]And I know in the China community, there's a fair bit of skepticism about that argument, but curious to hear your take.

[00:00:16]I'm similarly skeptical.

[00:00:17]What the U.S. has demonstrated in its alleged efforts to box in China is that it can change what's happening vis-à-vis a country, but not even necessarily meaningfully, and definitely not necessarily in line with U.S. national security interests.

[00:00:32]So, you know, with the Venezuela case study, while the U.S. military is operationally so extraordinary, it took out one individual.

[00:00:39]It did not change a regime.

[00:00:41]I think fundamentally it shows China, it would seem to me, that, yes, the U.S. military can project power.

[00:00:48]It can go just about anywhere at any time in a way that no other military can in the world.

[00:00:53]And also it's not entirely clear it can achieve U.S. national security interests.

[00:00:58]That's really, that's really quite striking, Suzanne I would just jump in on that and say I think one of the takeaways from this entire campaign is that the U.S. has exquisite intelligence and targeting capabilities, but that does not necessarily achieve strategic outcomes.