Gen Keane: We are on the VERGE of something…

Ajouté : 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]of course, Fox News senior strategic analyst. Uh, so General Keane, I'll just read it one more time. This is what the president told Martha McCllum. No time pressure on the ceasefire. The 3 to 5 day window reported earlier today is false. And he repeated, "No time frame, no rush. People say I want to get it over because of the midterms." Not true.

[00:00:24]We want a good deal for the American people. And then finally, Siri, he said the blockade scares them even more than the bombing. They've been bombed for years, but the blockade they hate. So, General Keane, what's your reaction to this? Um, it's a bit of a change in the president's policy. How do you see it, sir?

[00:00:45]>> Well, let's start with the Iranian side first.

[00:00:49]I mean, the Iranians went into this ceasefire, I think, with a a couple things really in mind.

[00:00:56]Uh, one certainly was they they wanted to firm up control of the straits of Amuse, but the big objective was to shut down the war.

[00:01:07]>> So, they got that. And then I think the second objective which was implied, yes, we're going to go to negotiations and the president set a twoe deadline, but the Iranians I think immediately went to a plan to extend that deadline because they they're playing for time.

[00:01:25]They think time is on their side because they believe in their minds that the political and economic pressure on the president is what got them the ceasefire to begin with.

[00:01:36]>> And the longer they drag this out in their minds, it's it complements their objectives because they believe fundamentally the longer it takes, the more reluctant the president will be to pull the trigger and go back into combat operations. And then let's let's take a look at the delay. I mean I understand they may do indeed have bifrocated leadership. The Institute for the Study of War has certainly seen that themselves. An organization I'm associated with. But it also may be true that despite that they clearly want to extend this and delay it as much as possible. And look at the leaders here know full well what deal is on the table. They discussed it in some level of detail the last time they all met with the American delegation and I think they can clearly come to a decision quicker than this. But here's the problem and just go back to the president's statement. I think what the issue here for the Iranians because they have done this before.

[00:02:40]They underestimate the president and they did not calculate that during a 12-day war that the president really would fulfill a promise to them and that is destroy their nuclear enterprise which we largely did and some of it is under rubble which we still want to get our hands on as we all know. And they also miscalculated that the president would not respond to killing 30 to 40,000 of their people and actually come to assistance and do something about the regime because they had fully recommitted to all of their goals despite the 12-day war, despite the damage to their nuclear enterprise and really were trying to recover militarily as quickly as possible which alerted the prime minister and the president that we got to do something about this. I think we're on another verge of another miscalculation here. And they're betting on the fact they kick this can down the road, drag it out, the president will not pull the trigger. I I believe he will pull the trigger and I'll bet any amount of money target one is many of these people that he's talking to or not he's talking to but negotiators are talking to the new bonafide leaders of of Iran who are absolutely as ideological as the previous one.

[00:04:00]Certainly there are new faces here and people occupying different positions but the reality is the ideology and the commitment to Iran is there in terms of its objectives and goals. The blockade Larry is very very effective. This is a major card the the president is playing here and they know full well what the implications of that better than better than we're stating. They understand it and they understand what the immediate impact is, what the mid mid-range and the long-term impact. The long-term impact for sure is an economic collapse.

[00:04:38]And we could do that with a with a blow on Carallen and take it all down.

[00:04:42]Blockade does that slowly over time and erodess their capability. And you're absolutely right, Larry, in in the riff here.

[00:04:50]>> They they will have at some point here major major compensation problems. for the hundreds of thousands of people that sustain the regime. And when that starts to happen, further fracture and fissure will certainly begin to take place as to where their true loyalties lie. And do they want to get on the end of a noose being hung by a crane by the Iranian people at some point, if that's what they see in the future.

[00:05:16]>> So, yeah, we've got uh lots to play out here to be sure. I still believe the president is holding the cards here.

[00:05:24]He's got the blockade. And also, I'm convinced he's going to do what he said he's going to do. He's going to pull the trigger here if these guys don't accept the deal. That in his mind is the only acceptable deal with the terms we all know and are familiar with.

[00:05:41]>> If they don't accept the deal, General Soon, um, you think that the US andor Israeli uh, intelligence will just take the new leaders out? Just take them out?

[00:05:53]Well, yes, I do. To be frank about it, I don't want to get into the too much of the details here, but let's just say that would be a general objective in mind to do that. Yeah.

[00:06:05]>> Just as the war began, remind our audience.

[00:06:08]>> Target one in the war was to kill Ayatollah.

[00:06:12]>> We were going to kill him whether he was in his bunker y >> or whether he was in his residence. And we found that we're having a major major meeting and we were able to kill a lot of others as well. We have new leaders.

[00:06:25]Believe me, they are target one.

[00:06:28]>> So I think just on the other matters now with respect to the the blockade continues it every day the blockade inflicts enormous economic and financial punishment on Iran probably that Iran has never suffered before. question I have uh legitimate question general you know which is they're going to be hurt daily by the blockade you know and hopefully all these criminals running the place will be hurt badly no payrolls will be met etc etc um but do they how much room is there for them to regroup and are they getting outside help uh during this period you know they they love as you said earlier sir they love to they love to play us along and string us along. Now, Mr. Trump knows that, of course, but you know, can they regroup?

[00:07:17]Is there room for any regrouping? Or does the blockade and the economic starvation just knock them out one by one?

[00:07:27]>> Well, the primary way of of getting assistance to them is certainly by ship >> and also uh some some assistance obviously by air. And let's face it, I mean, we own the sea there. They're not getting through there. And we we got a 100% blockage that's taking place there of any assistance going to Iranian ports. We also own the airspace over Iran. Admittedly, we're under a ceasefire, but we own the airspace and we know what's what's going in and what's not going in there and we can deal with that handedly. So, I think there is a surely this is a real economic squeeze on Iran that exceeds anything we try to do with sanctions.

[00:08:08]And by the way, there are sanctions still imposed on Iran that are squeezing them further. So yes, but the we don't underestimate the Iranians resilience to stick this through despite the suffering and and it they'll they'll try to do that. But and and it'll look like they're formidable and they're not going to break. And it looks good until it's not. And we've seen that before with regimes that collapse. they everything appears to be okay and then all of a sudden within a day or two they're gone.

[00:08:39]We don't we can't predict that when that was happen but there is a squeeze on them now that they have never ever had before and you add it >> to the damage that we've done and after they've had two weeks now >> to talk together get assessments from all their sport and leaders maybe go out and actually see some things themselves they have a clear view now of the damage that has been done to them militarily the damage that has been done to them in terms of their ability to recover in terms in terms of the manufacturing capability that they have which is formidable. These this is a highly educated country >> and they have huge technology capabilities there in terms of ballistic missiles, drones, launch systems, you name it, they've got great capability.

[00:09:25]What did we do? We took it all away from them.

[00:09:28]>> So they they now have a clearer view of the amount of damage that has done. And I would imagine that is another pressure point that they didn't have as much during the bombing campaign as they do now after the assessments have come in.

[00:09:42]>> And they're feeling more pressure than they ever have.

[00:09:45]>> No. Yes, sir. I didn't mean to. I just was going to ask one final one. You know, so they have friends and relatives, I presume. Um, and at some point the economic starvation pressure, if you will. I mean, you know, family and friends aren't going to be able to get food on the table. They're just going to not be able to get food. The currency is worthless. We know that. But they literally won't have food supplies. Now, they they generate some of their food internally. Okay, fine. But they may not be able to pay for it. Nobody has any money. When's that? When does the civilian population just roar back at these thugs that are ruining their lives?

[00:10:24]>> I don't think we know the answer to that. I I I do think if we make a deal uh with the Iranians, I think there should be some expression in that deal and holding them accountable to their how they treat that civilian population.

[00:10:39]>> Oh.

[00:10:39]>> Uh but I I don't think we can predict now, >> you know, what what they're going to do.

[00:10:46]Uh I don't certainly CIA chief Radcliffe and Mossad Chief uh Banea who's turning over uh to Roman uh they got a better feel for what for what that is and what >> because they have tentacles into that population but it remains to be seen. I think they're going to they're waiting to see what happens here >> is is my speculation.

[00:11:10]>> Yes.

[00:11:10]>> Is there going to be a deal? If not, are they going to go back to combat operations and they have to make certain they're they're sheltering themselves to protect their families during that.

[00:11:20]Certainly, what they want to see, there's no doubt where they are. They want to see this regime so so tattered, so economically hurt that they're on their last leg >> and that may bring them out in the streets >> to help push them over the edge.

[00:11:36]>> Yes. Yes, sir. General Keane, thank you, sir, as always. Really, thank you ever so much. We appreciate the updates.