An Opportunity Like This Won’t Come Again… (Emergency Update) | WARREN BUFFETT

本站添加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]You know, I've been sitting in Omaha for over 60 years watching markets go up, watching markets go down, watching people make fortunes and watching people lose everything they had.

[00:00:13]And in all of that time, I can count on one hand the moments where I felt a genuine urgency to speak.

[00:00:20]Not excitement, not enthusiasm, urgency.

[00:00:24]This is one of those moments. So, I want you to sit down.

[00:00:29]I want you to turn everything else off and I want you to listen carefully to what I'm about to tell you because the window for this particular conversation is not going to stay open much longer.

[00:00:42]Most people watching this right now believe they're doing the right thing with their money.

[00:00:47]They own index funds.

[00:00:49]They're told to be patient.

[00:00:51]They are told that time in the market beats timing the market.

[00:00:55]And there is truth in that. There really is.

[00:00:58]But there is a version of that advice that helps you and a version of that advice that quietly bankrupts you. And the difference between those two versions comes down to one thing.

[00:01:10]Understanding what is actually happening underneath the surface of the numbers you see on your screen every morning.

[00:01:17]The number you see is a headline.

[00:01:20]What I want to talk to you about today is the story behind that headline.

[00:01:25]And I promise you the story is far more important than the number.

[00:01:30]Let me start with something very simple because I have always believed that if you cannot explain something simply, you probably do not understand it well enough yourself.

[00:01:42]Think about a fruit basket. Someone hands you a fruit basket and says, "The fruit in this basket has an average quality rating of seven out of 10."

[00:01:53]Sounds pretty good. You buy the basket, but when you get home and open it up, you find 10 pieces of exceptional B perfectly ripe fruit, and you also find 12 pieces that are rotting on the inside.

[00:02:09]The average was seven.

[00:02:11]The reality was a basket full of both treasure and garbage, and you paid for the whole thing.

[00:02:17]That is what a broad market index fund is doing to a large number of people right now.

[00:02:24]I say this not to frighten you, but because understanding this is the beginning of genuinely taking care of yourself financially.

[00:02:33]Now, here is what I mean in real terms.

[00:02:36]There are companies right now, companies inside the very same index that millions of ordinary people own, that have increased in value by 4 and 500% over the past couple of years.

[00:02:51]Real businesses with real products serving real demand that is growing faster than almost anyone anticipated.

[00:02:59]At the same time, sitting right next to them in that same index, there are companies down 40, 50, even 60%.

[00:03:08]Great brand names, names you grew up with, names on your shoes and your shelves.

[00:03:14]And the index takes both of those realities, blends them together, and hands you one number.

[00:03:21]And the quiet tragedy is that you are funding both the winners and the losers with equal conviction, and you may not even know it. I have always said that diversification is protection against ignorance.

[00:03:34]It makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing.

[00:03:38]I am not saying to be reckless. I am saying to be informed.

[00:03:43]There is an enormous difference between those two things. So, what is actually happening in this market right now, and why does it matter so urgently at this particular moment?

[00:03:55]I want to walk you through it the way I would explain it to my grandchildren because the concepts are not complicated once you strip away the jargon that Wall Street uses to make itself seem more sophisticated than it actually is.

[00:04:10]The first thing you need to understand is what inflation actually does to different kinds of businesses because this is the engine driving everything else I am about to tell you.

[00:04:21]Inflation at its core means your dollar buys less today than it bought yesterday.

[00:04:26]Prices go up. The coffee costs more.

[00:04:30]The gas costs more.

[00:04:32]The utility bill costs more. And when that happens consistently over time as it is happening right now with prices rising at roughly double the rate that the Federal Reserve considers healthy you get a very clear and predictable sorting of winners and losers in the economy.

[00:04:52]The winners are the businesses that own real tangible things.

[00:04:56]The businesses that produce physical materials that the world needs regardless of what happens to paper currencies.

[00:05:05]When inflation rises, the value of what those businesses own rises with it.

[00:05:11]It is one of the most reliable relationships in all of investing and it has held up across every inflationary period in modern history.

[00:05:20]The losers in an inflationary environment are the businesses that depend on ordinary people having money left over after they pay their essential bills.

[00:05:31]Because when real purchasing power is shrinking which it is right now for the average American family people stop buying discretionary things.

[00:05:41]They stop buying the extra pair of sneakers. They stop subscribing to things they do not absolutely need.

[00:05:48]And the companies selling those things feel it first in their sales, then in their earnings, and finally in their stock price.

[00:05:57]This is not complicated. This is not theoretical.

[00:06:01]This is happening right now.

[00:06:03]And the stock market is reflecting it with extraordinary precision for those who are paying attention.

[00:06:10]The second thing I want you to understand is what I call the dry powder problem.

[00:06:15]There are professional fund managers, the people who manage enormous pools of money on behalf of pension funds and institutions and endowments.

[00:06:25]And right now nearly all of them are essentially fully invested.

[00:06:30]Uh 97 cents out of every dollar they manage is already deployed into stocks.

[00:06:36]Now, think about what that means very simply.

[00:06:39]If almost everyone who was going to buy has already bought, where does the next big surge of buying pressure come from?

[00:06:47]The honest answer is that it does not come in a broad way. The overall market is unlikely to just lift dramatically higher from here because there's simply not much fuel left for that kind of broad rally.

[00:07:02]But here is what does happen. And this is where it gets genuinely interesting.

[00:07:07]When professional money managers are fully invested and they want to improve their returns, the only way to do it is to sell what is not working and move that money into what is.

[00:07:20]And that movement, that rotation of capital from declining industries into growing ones, is happening right now at an accelerating pace.

[00:07:30]And if you are positioned on the wrong side of that rotation, you are essentially watching someone else's gains come at the expense of your portfolio.

[00:07:41]If you are positioned on the right side, you are on the receiving end of some of the most powerful capital flows we have seen in a generation.

[00:07:51]The third piece is something I find genuinely troubling about the current moment, and I say this as someone who has always believed in the resilience of the American economy.

[00:08:02]Real wages are declining. What that means simply is that even though people may be getting small raises at work, prices are going up faster than those raises.

[00:08:14]So, the actual buying power of the average family, what their paycheck can genuinely afford, is shrinking.

[00:08:22]And this creates a slow, quiet pressure on every business that depends on consumer spending.

[00:08:28]And there are great many such businesses inside the index funds that millions of people own.

[00:08:35]The market, to its credit, is an extraordinarily efficient mechanism for eventually pricing this reality in.

[00:08:43]But, most investors do not see it coming because they are looking at the headline number, not at the machinery underneath. Now, I want to tell you about where the real opportunity is.

[00:08:55]And I want to do it plainly because I have never believed in obscuring good information behind complexity. We are living through what historians of commodity markets call a super cycle.

[00:09:08]A multi-year period where the physical, tangible things that the world runs on dramatically outperform financial instruments.

[00:09:17]And the conditions that create these super cycles, supply shortages, geopolitical tension, massive infrastructure spending, currency that is losing purchasing power, rising demand from developing nations.

[00:09:33]Every single one of those conditions is present and growing stronger right now.

[00:09:38]This does not happen often.

[00:09:40]When it does, the opportunity is real and it is substantial.

[00:09:45]But, it does not wait for you.

[00:09:48]Gold has been one of the clearest expressions of the shift. Uh it is not something I have historically been enthusiastic about. And I want to be honest about that because gold pays no dividend.

[00:10:00]It does not build anything. It does not produce anything. But, in an environment where central banks all over the world are buying it at record pace, where governments are converting their dollar reserves into it, and where inflation is persistently eating away at the value of paper currencies, the price of gold reflects a very rational fear about the future of those currencies.

[00:10:26]Central banks in China, in India, in Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are not buying gold because they read an exciting newsletter.

[00:10:35]They are buying it because their own monetary experience tells them not to trust paper over long periods of time.

[00:10:44]And when the people who print money are themselves buying gold, I think that deserves your attention.

[00:10:50]Uranium is an area that very few ordinary investors have ever thought seriously about.

[00:10:56]And that gap between the importance of the resource and the awareness of the investment opportunity is precisely where some of the most meaningful returns tend to hide.

[00:11:08]The world is building nuclear power plants at a pace we have not seen in decades, not because of ideology, but because every serious nation on Earth is doing the math on how to power artificial intelligence infrastructure at scale.

[00:11:25]And there is simply no other energy source that can reliably deliver what that technology demands.

[00:11:32]The United States alone uses roughly 50 times more uranium than it produces domestically.

[00:11:39]That is a supply vulnerability of a kind that governments do not ignore.

[00:11:44]And government attention to a critical supply problem has historically led to very significant price movement in the commodity being discussed.

[00:11:55]Copper is another area where the numbers tell a story that is hard to argue with.

[00:12:01]Every electric vehicle uses dramatically more copper than a traditional gasoline car.

[00:12:08]Every solar installation uses it.

[00:12:11]Every data center uses it.

[00:12:13]Every upgrade to the electrical grid that the energy transition requires uses it. The gap between how much copper the world is going to need and how much the world is currently capable of producing is growing and growing.

[00:12:30]Supply gaps in essential commodities have a very predictable effect on prices over time.

[00:12:37]These are not complicated ideas.

[00:12:39]They are just ideas that most people are not paying attention to because the financial media is much more interested in talking about the technology stocks that everyone already knows about.

[00:12:52]Energy broadly has been the strongest performing sector in the market this year.

[00:12:57]And it has done so largely in silence.

[00:13:01]While nearly every conversation in financial media was focused elsewhere, I have always believed that the best investments are the ones where the business fundamentals are excellent and the crowd is not yet paying attention.

[00:13:16]The energy sector today with oil and gas companies generating extraordinary free cash flow in an inflationary environment fits that description better than almost anything else I am seeing. And then there are the companies that build the infrastructure that all of this requires.

[00:13:34]The engineering firms, the electrical construction companies, the water and pipeline operators, the uh defense contractors.

[00:13:44]These businesses are doing work that the world cannot function without.

[00:13:49]And they are doing it under long-term contracts with governments and institutions that guarantee their revenue for years into the future.

[00:13:58]They do not trend on social media.

[00:14:01]Nobody makes viral content about them.

[00:14:05]But the institutions, the smart money, have been quietly building positions in them for the better part of 2 years. And the returns in some of these industries have been 3 and 400% while the average retail investor was focused entirely elsewhere. Now, I want to spend a moment on the other side of this ledger because there is no such thing as a useful conversation about opportunity without an equally honest conversation about risk. The same forces that are creating these tailwinds for commodity producers and infrastructure companies are creating very serious headwinds for others.

[00:14:46]Consumer-facing companies, retail businesses, professional service firms that charge large fees for work that is increasingly being replicated by artificial intelligence at a fraction of the cost.

[00:15:01]Advertising agencies, publishers, anyone whose business model depends on either consumer spending or charging a premium for something that technology is rapidly commoditizing.

[00:15:14]These industries are under genuine and in some cases permanent pressure.

[00:15:19]And many of them are well represented inside the broad index funds that ordinary investors were told represented safety.

[00:15:28]I want to say that again because it matters.

[00:15:31]The diversification you are sold as a protection mechanism contains within it a meaningful allocation to industries that are structurally declining, not cyclically declining. Structurally, the kind of decline that does not reverse when the economy picks up because the problem is not the economy.

[00:15:52]The problem is that the world no longer needs what those businesses are selling in the way it once did.

[00:15:59]The question I would ask you to sit with is a simple one.

[00:16:03]If you sat down today with a full understanding of what I have just described, the inflationary environment, the commodity super cycle, the industries that are gaining institutional capital, and the industries that are losing it, would you deliberately choose to go out and buy equal portions of a growing uranium producer and a declining shoe retailer?

[00:16:29]Would you choose to invest equally in a copper mining company writing a structural supply deficit and an advertising agency losing clients to software?

[00:16:40]Of course, you would not. Nobody would.

[00:16:43]And yet that is precisely what a broad index fund is asking you to do and charging you a fee to do it.

[00:16:51]I am not saying index funds are worthless. I'm saying that in a market environment where the divergence between winners and losers is as dramatic as anything I have seen in a very long time, the blended average is a particularly expensive form of self-deception.

[00:17:09]Charlie Munger, my partner for most of my investing life, used to say that all he wanted to know was where he was going to die so he can make sure never to go there.

[00:17:20]The investment equivalent of that is simply understanding which industries are structurally challenged right now and making a conscious decision about whether you want to own them.

[00:17:31]You do not have to be brilliant. You do not have to predict the future.

[00:17:36]You just have to be honest about what the present is telling you.

[00:17:41]Uh I want to close with something that I genuinely believe not as a pitch, not as a performance, but as a reflection on over six decades of watching how wealth actually gets built and how it gets lost.

[00:17:57]The people who look back at pivotal moments in markets and wish they had acted differently almost never say they wish they had been smarter.

[00:18:06]What they say is they wish they had been paying attention.

[00:18:11]They had the information.

[00:18:13]The information was available.

[00:18:15]The trends were visible.

[00:18:17]The logic was not complicated.

[00:18:20]What they lacked was someone who would sit down with them at the right moment and walk them through what was actually happening clearly and without agenda.

[00:18:31]I have tried to be that person for you today.

[00:18:34]What you do with it is entirely up to you.

[00:18:38]But I can tell you with certainty that the rotation happening in this market right now is real.

[00:18:45]It is measurable.

[00:18:47]And the window for positioning yourself on the right side of it will not stay open forever.

[00:18:54]The money is already moving.

[00:18:56]The only question worth asking is whether you are moving with it or standing still while it flows past you.

[00:19:04]This Saturday I'm running a live session called Why buy and hold is dead in 2026.

[00:19:12]It is free. There are no replays.

[00:19:15]And we are going to go through the institutional methodology in plain language that the same framework I have described today but with specific actionable detail so that you leave that session knowing exactly how to read and where capital is flowing and how to position yourself accordingly.

[00:19:37]Register at buyandgrow.net.

[00:19:40]Come prepared to think and come prepared to leave with a clearer picture of your financial future than you have had in a long time.

[00:19:49]That is all I have.

[00:19:50]Thank you for watching.