Davis provides a clinical look at strategic restraint that risks mistaking indecision for sophistication. His analysis highlights the uncomfortable gap between complex military theory and the reality of eroding deterrence.
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Pentagon's Two Iran War Operations /Lt Col Daniel DavisHinzugefügt:
What have we been hearing from central command about this effort to try and escort stranded tankers in the straight of Hormuz? And then just the exchange of attacks we've seen between the US and Iran.
>> So we had an opportunity to speak with Admiral Brad Cooper yesterday afternoon.
He's the commander of US Central Command and he said that at that point the US had had guided two US flag ships through the straight of Hormuz as part of this new project freedom. went into effect yesterday and essentially it was uh it's an effort for the US military to provide sort of what Admiral Cooper called a defensive umbrella over the straight of Hormuz. Basically the US is providing US Navy ships that have their radars, aircraft overhead that are providing air defenses so that ships will theoretically be able to move through the southern southern part of the straight of Hormuz from the Gulf out into the open sea and continue on their transit. Of course, they've been struck stuck there in the Gulf now in some cases for weeks as the US and Iran fought this war and then as there's now been this stalemate in the straight of Hormuz where both the US has been enforcing a blockade and Iran has been enforcing one as well. Joe, >> Lieutenant Colonel Davis, let's bring you in here. The so-called project freedom, um what is it doing for the overall operation? How much is it potentially escalating things?
>> Uh you know, so far it hasn't done much practically speaking. There there was those report that two ships came out uh yesterday. There was also reports from the New York Times this morning that there's one of those ship trackers and they said that a total of four VE vessels came through, but it was unclear who the other two were, but it's also clear that there were two ships that were hit and so that doesn't make it very likely the others are going to follow through anytime soon.
>> Lieutenant Colonel Davis, I want to bring you in here and literally ask you about the two points that Courtney just raised. And we'll start with the last one there. the the secretary saying these are separate and distinct what's happening right now with this project from the overall operation. Is that possible or are these things just intrinsically linked?
>> Our view is >> well my my reading of that was that they were trying to get past the 60-day 1973 War Powers Act issue by saying oh Operation Epic Fury that was deal that deal was done. It was separate and distinct and now here comes a new operation and then if the ceasefire ends that'll be a new operation. I think that was just to get around reporting requirements. Uh but the the the issue that I thought was the most important and didn't get answered was you said there were two ships that passed through yesterday. Um and there are hundreds are lining up but no movement on them. So what's going to make people want to cross that line, especially when two other ships were attacked by Iran yesterday? Um I don't see a lot of people getting ready to to rush the the opening here. And that's the part that the only thing that matters is how many ships come out. or do they >> and Lieutenant Colonel this concept of lowh harassing fire? Can you help us understand that?
>> Yeah, I interpret that as they attacked they had launched some either cruise missiles or drones and they were not successful. They were able to intercept them and so they consider that low low ranking. But, you know, the thing that I worry about the most is if the the Iranians decide not just to fire one or two or three, I think is what I've seen, uh, of these missiles or drones at a ship, but they swarm it and hit, you know, 15 or 20 if they really decide they're going to go after this ship. I don't know that our defenses can guard off against that, and we may find ourselves in a flash point there. And that's the thing I worry about. Pentagon officials saying the US has been attacked by Iran 10 times in the straits since the start of the ceasefire, but that those attacks were unworthy of a response. What did we learn here?
>> I was shocked that this came out of uh someone in uniform's mouth because as he this was the chairman of the joint chiefs general, Dan Kaine, he said in his opening remarks, those prepared remarks, that in fact the US had been attacked is the word he used more than 10 times since the ceasefire began. uh but that they all fell below the threshold for restarting combat operations. Now he was asked in the question and answer period about that and he said well that's a political decision. So I was surprised to hear that come from him. Again it was in his opening remarks he prepared to say that versus I wouldn't have been quite as surprised if Secretary of Defense Pete Hgsth had said such a thing. I mean that doesn't keep with much of the past of what we've seen from the US military. an attack on the US military even if it is repelled is often met with uh US military force. I would give examples in Iraq where groups like Kata Hezbollah have attacked US forces unsuccessfully.
They've been either they've they've not completed the attack or it's been repelled. Whatever the answer is and the US has responded with air strikes in Syria. The Houthis is another one. They have fired off more projectiles than I can even count at this point. The vast majority of them end up in the ocean or are shot down. Well, the US has conducted a string of of strikes against the Houthis uh in response to some of those attacks. So, that doesn't always keep with past president. The other thing that I was also struck by was what you said in the very in the open there about Secretary Hegsth. He responded very clearly saying that the US cease or the ceasefire is not over despite this exchange of gunfire between the US military and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. That is further than President Trump was willing to go just yesterday when asked on a radio interview about that and he said he wasn't going to talk about whether the ceasefire was over or not.
>> Lieutenant Colonel, I know you have a theory about why Pentagon officials are sort of framing it this way when it comes to those those strikes from Iran, uh the attacks, as they said. What do these skirmishes in the street possibly mean for the ceasefire and that now expired 60-day deadline for for Congress to weigh in the War Powers Resolution?
Well, listen, I I I think that the the characterization of a of a what was it a separate and distinct operation. I think that's designed to bypass the issues of the 1973 War Powers Act because they wanted to say, "Oh, well, that 60-day clock expired then, and we don't we didn't get to the end of that time before the mission was still going on."
And so now they're saying, "Here's a new clock that started here if if we get back into it." And of course that wouldn't start again unless there was another attack according to the interpretation that's being given by the White House. Uh but the the real issue here though is is will this hold right now because we're setting up a situation by saying we're going to protect ships that come through and the Iranians are still saying no ships are going to get through and if anybody tries to run it without us we will attack the ship.
There's already been happened to two two got through yesterday according to what General Kaine said. But even though hundreds are lining up, I haven't heard any reports of a single ship going through today. So, uh, we know they want to get out really bad. But that tells you that the the ship companies and the the the crew people that run those ships don't trust this, you know, this defensive capability yet. Because if there are no ship, American ships patrolling this, this whole bubble thing that that doesn't protect you from an Iranian gunboat or an Iranian missile or a drone or anything like that. So there is literally no protection for that and we'll see if anybody takes us up on the offer in scale.
>> Courtney, you mentioned that Secretary Heg said the ceasefire is not over. He briefly touched on the prospects for a deal with Iran. Is he still optimistic?
>> He's he doesn't appear to be, but I mean he's he's leaving open the possibility that the US military could restart some sort of massive combat operations or something more tailored and and we heard that from the chairman of the joint chiefs as well. What's really telling here, Joe, is that where the US military is in the region right now versus where they were on February 26th, so before the war the the war actually began. The US has a significant more amount more combat power in the area than they did then. So, they have two carrier strike groups that are right there in the Gulf region, the in the um uh the Gulf of Gulf of Oman area, and they have additional destroyers. What's more important than that is one of those the George HW Bush has a fresh carrier wing versus the Ford which had spent you know about months and months on pretty punishing deployment uh moving all over the world for various operations and the US has been able to basically reset during these last 3 weeks or so of the ceasefire. Now, keep in mind, Iran's been able to do the same, but the US military is in a position where if they restarted combat operations, they could probably accelerate and even uh conduct more strikes than they were when the ceasefire began.
>> Lieutenant Colonel Davis, we only have a few seconds left here, but what are you watching for over the next day or two?
>> Well, I'm going to I'm going to watch to see if do any other ships attempt to go through and will the Iranian sides attack those ships? And if they do, what is going to be the US response? That's what everything depends on. All right.
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