In US primary elections, candidates who align with the party's base and have strong grassroots support often win despite having less money or fewer resources than establishment candidates, as demonstrated by Ken Paxton's victory over four-term Senator John Cornyn in the Texas House runoff, where Cornyn raised $125 million but lost by 30 points. This reflects a broader political phenomenon where polling data may not accurately predict actual voter turnout, as voters who are dissatisfied with the party establishment may simply not participate rather than vote for the opposing party.
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Trump-endorsed candidate wins GOP runoff for Texas House seatAjouté :
Let's go to Texas because my husband loves a bit of US politics and he was you know in and around the toaster the other day telling me all about the race in Texas. He says it is absolutely fascinating. So give us an update.
>> So this is huge news in the last 24 hours where a four-term Senator John Cornyn who's been in office for 23 years raised $125 million for a primary which is unprecedented.
Those numbers just keep going up and up and up and he got trounced by 30 points by Ken Paxton who's the sitting AG.
Comes with a bit of baggage. He's a bit checkered. He's been mired in some ethics probes and other things never convicted but that's not helpful. And despite that he >> Formally innocent.
>> completely trounced him. So it is interesting because and he was endorsed by Trump at the 11th hour. Trump was sort of holding back. It is a microcosm of two opposing dynamics that are happening in the US right now. Trump's poll numbers are really nose diving with his base. They don't like the Iran war.
They don't like the handling of Epstein.
Yet every single person that Trump has endorsed but are these sort of Maga types like Ken Paxton are winning. He's got a a near 100% record at least within the Republican Party. It is still his party. He's destroying a lot of those establishmenty types which John Cornyn represented and it's a very fascinating dynamic.
>> And can I give you a bit of insight? Why what I think's happening there is a disconnect between the polls and the actual turnout race.
When people turn out they are voting for Trump, right? When you're asking a poll you're getting absolutely everyone and if people aren't happy with Trump and they'll say that in a poll they don't necessarily turn up and vote for the Democrats. They just don't turn up. So this will be the challenge for for the Democrats for the other side because it could be just the withdrawal of effort but right now we are still seeing the Trump types turn up and can the Democrats if they've got Kamala mark two get people to turn up.
>> Well any of the candidates they seem all terrible. I mean it's people are voting against the Democrat Party if there's a an actual poll between Republicans and Democrats. Not that they're necessarily pro-Trump. And I I think you're right, too. The it's shallow the opposition to Trump because A you don't know who's going to turn out. It seems that he wins all of the the races.
Kushner's exactly right. He won practically everything. Um >> He's down in Kentucky.
>> Kentucky, Massie got thrown out.
>> We'll have to do a part two later, but the person now that Paxton has to face in the generals against the Democrats is a is a piece of work. You're going to enjoy it.
>> Switzerland, I want to get to that quickly. We've got about a minute to go.
>> So, Switzerland uh has is going to put a referendum on a cap to the quantum of immigration coming in, 10 million into the country. And it feels like this is a referendum that the world has been waiting for. This is the issue of our time. What's been happening with immigration all across the West is out of step with the people. So, it might be an interesting precedent for other countries that do referendums like this one to consider that.
>> It sounds like a one nation policy of matching immigration to ability to provide housing. So, uh >> You know, I looked at some stats the other day and the the number one country the household indebtedness is Switzerland. We are number two.
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