PM Modi Calls For Work From Home Measures: Is Corporate India Ready?

本站添加: 2026-05-18

[00:00:11]Good evening. I'm Micramosa. You're with me on the big question on NTV Profit.

[00:00:14]And our focus tonight on the prime minister's well almost wartime message.

[00:00:19]It's without a war at home and the prime minister is asking Indians to think and behave like it's co all over again. So work from home, cut travel, use less fuel, spend less on imports, even reconsider buying gold. So what the prime minister is saying, this is not routine advice. It is a coordinated nationwide call to conserve foreign exchange at a moment when global risks are rising fast. And the trigger is right there before us. There is that deepening West Asia conflict, disruptions around the straight of Hormos. There is a surge in crude oil prices. A serious vulnerability for a country that imports more than 85% of its oil. Yes. So add to that this widening import bill. You talk about the current account deficit. There is a widening import bill 775 billion. That was the case last year. And now with crude and gold alone draining more than $200 billion. Forex reserves. Forex reserves had touched a record $728 billion in February. They've already slipped closer to $690 billion. The International Monetary Fund now expects India the current account deficit of the country to widen even further. So the government's message in that kind of scenario is what we've heard the prime minister say. Cut demand, reduce the dollar outflows and brace for a prolonged period of global instability.

[00:01:54]But then here's the question. When citizens are asked to delay their travel plans to rethink their consumption and to adopt restraints across sectors, is this prudent, preemptive, precautionary economics or is it a signal that the risks ahead for the country for the Indian economy are far more serious. So tonight on the big question, we're asking this when the prime minister is calling for CO style restraint. Are we talking about precaution over here or are we taking it a notch up and is this an emergency and in an economic sense? This is what the prime minister has said.

[00:02:47]Metro.

[00:03:07]Work from home key, online meetings.

[00:03:14]VIDEO CONFERENCE.

[00:03:34]Now that's what we got from the prime minister. It's a strong advisory. It's a co style restraint that the prime minister is exerting citizens to uh put in place in daily life. To put this in context and to debate whether this is precaution or emergency, let's speak to our panel experts. Joining us tonight, Jitendra Bhara, former executive director at Air India. He's author of the descent of Air India. He's going to decode the impact on the travel sector on aviation as well. We've got Ajay Dwa, former union secretary in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry joining us in a moment. Madi Aurora is already with us, chief economist at MK Global. She's joining us to break down the macroeconomic implications of this call for restraint. Aditya Saraswat is senior vice president at Riceard Energy. He's joining us from London helping us track the energy markets and the crude dynamics that is actually driving this shift in the Indian economy. Also for the HR perspective, Aditya Mishra is with us, managing director and CEO at CLHR. He's with us to assess what this really means for workplaces, what it means for consumption behavior going ahead from here. But Madvi, let me ask you, when a prime minister is asking citizens to cut fuel use and defer gold purchases, avoid this foreign travel and revive work from home, you consider this proactive economic management or you think it's a signal that there is deeper stress coming?

[00:04:52]>> It's actually both Vikram. See, India has been also a lagard in terms of these restrictions. If you look at Asia, rest of Asia actually started putting uh movement restrictions and some uh you know curtainment in commercial uh usage of energy much before India actually even suggesting that. So we are actually way behind up Asian peers who are also you know energy guzzlers uh and possibly you know there could be uh it could be partly on account of uh you know certain uh you know timing constraint for the government. But I think what they're suggesting uh you know is actually if you look at from the larger national interest of course is making sense uh because we don't know how protracted this energy uh crisis could turn out to be. The world has already dipped into their reserves. Of course there are still reserves in the world order that we can dip into but definitely the the longer this uh war sort of stretches the more the pain uh economies like ours will have to bear. So there's nothing wrong in preparing for the same uh and as as of now this is just a uh you know it was more like a public appeal than any kind of national uh constraint or uh public sector uh sorry public uh tightening that has happened. So you know you're saying we preparing >> you're saying we are preparing for what could get worse in times to come. Ajua to weigh in on this from the industry side you worked in the Ministry of Commerce. Tell us when the messaging is safe foreign exchange reduce imports you consider this a temporary advisory or an early signal to prepare for prolonged global disruption.

[00:06:28]Uh thank you for having me in this discussion Vikram. I think the what what has just been said that several measures of austerity of tightening the belt needed to be taken once the war once it was clear that the war in West Asia is there to stay for a while and it's not a temporary or transiting kind of a event but for certain reasons including the I will be upfront including the ongoing elections in five states probably the government didn't want to take some of the more restrictive measures including making use of the price mechanism for cutting down demand for certain things. The prime minister yesterday in Hyderabad has alluded to a whole lot of measures which need to be around. They need to be there in fact if you ask me for a long time for a long time and not just momentarily. But I would say that these need to be backed also by regulatory measures including letting the markets decide what should be the price for the goods for which the supply has been disrupted. The demand isn't coming down.

[00:07:58]So let the two be matched by the market.

[00:08:02]>> Regulatory plus you're saying regulatory plus market forces need to act together at a time like this. As far as the government is concerned, the signaling how absolute is that is that a signaling to the regulators as well?

[00:08:15]>> I think so. The government has what it has what the prime minister has stated is that look things are not any longer normal. I'd like you to go back to certain constraints which we you had accepted during the covid from 19 from 2020 to 2022 the time is the time has come when we should revert to those and at that point of time you would recall vikram some of them were regulatory changes saying you can't do this you can't do that similarly what I'm suggesting is or what I make of the prime minister ers yesterday's uh listing out of those 11 measures if you broadly speak look at it they come to 11 or 12 yes is that there is need >> for the government to cut down move in this direction and in moving in this direction I'm appealing to you but if it happens that in the next few days there isn't much of a move forward then I expect the government to start making use of the measures at its disposal as well. You think of this as the first step as it were if you were to talk about the austerity measures and get specific Aditya Sarasworth India is importing more than 85% of its crude.

[00:09:45]Hormos is that choke point that is the trouble area. Now if disruptions persist how vulnerable do you think India is today compared to the past oil shocks that we've had?

[00:09:57]No, I think over the recent crisises uh the single most uh structural vulnerability we have is the is the import dependency and uh the stock covers we have. So just to quantify this claim every $10 per barrel increase in the prices adds another 14 15 billion in annual import bills and uh and that widens the current account deficit by 40 bps over GDP as we as we speak. Right.

[00:10:25]So, so the last 30 years this vulnerability hasn't changed anything structurally but it's really positive to see our 500 gawatt of renewable capacity plans we have already crossed 200 halfway mark and uh and it is also u there were some signs uh already emerging leading up to this announcement last month we have seen the petroleum ministry directing the PSU all marketers to look at the contingency planning and uh the supply chain flexibility there that was not only just a rhetoric but it was an operational measure leading up to this uh this uh announcement. So uh all in all we are as you rightly pointed out more than 85% of our we are dependent on these imports. As much as we can cut short uh our oil dependency it will help us to be resilient against these shocks in the future. Work from home however doesn't create enough dent because we are largely driven by uh dieseldriven uh logistics, jet fuels and other industrial feed stocks. Uh that again if you cut down on those feed stocks then that it plays and flirts around with our our growth and GDP.

[00:11:35]>> So you're saying work from home is not going to make a substantial impact.

[00:11:40]>> No, because it uh it's a passenger vehicles and that has a very limited uh share of our overall demand. M >> it's largely the trucks and the uh the daily commuter commation of your logistics, jet fuels, industrial feed stocks that has the lion share of your demand and if you start uh constrain uh constraining those feed stock then it impacts your overall industrial growth and GDP. So it's a it's a very very initial step to try and position some sort of messaging yes to try and cail it through simple messaging and that's how it's starting like two of you have said but before I go back to that macro picture and talk about the impact on GDP and ask Madi Aditya Mishra on the ground since we are talking about work from home can corporate India realistically today pivot back to work from home after spending two years pushing employees back to offices after the pandemic >> no Vikram it's going to again create some bit of a disruption. Corporate India after a very long period of protracted efforts has been able to get the employees back to office in large numbers. Uh but this kind of a measure is going to create some disruption. However, considering the national security of our international, you know, reserves and all of that. Uh this is a welcome move in that sense and maybe many employees would like to go back to their hometowns and work from home. So the kind of balance which was achieved in terms of hybrid work environment is going to shift a bit. But in my mind the major changes or the impact can be produced when the consumption um can be slightly tweaked.

[00:13:48]For example, honorable prime minister has said that we should do car pooling.

[00:13:53]>> Yes. So similarly can the e-commerce companies supply chain companies do some pooling more and more of pulley while some of them do but can they do more and more of pooling and can the citizens uh the number of times that they order items of this quick commerce type the number of times that some households order can they reduce that and bring all these materials together into one order so that you save some fuel. Yeah.

[00:14:27]>> And um things like this are to be thought through. School uh you know transport of the kids and the teachers and the staff that consumes a lot that cons compro consists of lot of traffic in our cities whether some of that can be rationed. So some of these innovative methods have to really come into picture and this car pooling as a method that honorable prime minister has said it can be done for multiple other things. Well, we talk about car pooling even when you don't have you know this kind of situation but that is in general good for the environment and good for the planet but Madi since we're talking about crude if the prices of crude stay elevated and the import bill which is already at $775 billion comes under pressure then what is going to hit us first is it going to be the inflation is it going to be further depreciation of the Indian currency which has been substantial or you think our growth is going to get hit >> so it will happen in a conjunction I mean it will be you know a process wherein you will see all of these variable actually move in tandem with each other. FX is obviously the biggest move that we've seen so far because that's a more open segment of the uh external sector. Uh but I think in terms of growth and inflation uh that will largely be the function of as to how the you know the the pain is distributed between OMC's government and the consumer. As of now what we seeing is that the consumers are largely out of this equation. uh the pain is largely borne by ONC's and now followed by the government of India when they uh took up the excise duty cut.

[00:16:03]>> Yeah.

[00:16:03]>> Uh so as of now I think a consumer is not in the picture. So the consumer price inflation may not necessarily increase. Wholesale price obviously you will see a price shock playing out because the producer price inflation will be actually much more pronounced than the consumer price inflation. uh so we'll see where you know how much and you know and when the government actually increases the pump prices for us to see a reflection in CPI in the direct fashion and indirectly of course with the lag on growth again it depends on how much burden sharing is happening between government PSUs and uh the consumer as I said consumer is currently out of the equation but I think ideally speaking in a scenario where these the energy cost looks to be more prolonged in nature more more pronounced in nature uh consumers should be also bearing a portion of it. Uh we are a welfare state definitely but we are not a socialist state. So I think to that extent uh um I think the consumer would eventually be a part of this equation which will imply that uh the growth impact would again be a function of how much fiscal hit the government is taking on it book and how much they're actually curtailing versus uh you know planning to spend it out or or slip on their fiscal at this point in time. We were just talking about the states% inflation $85 per barrel on an average which we'll see a maximum pay coming in the first quarter. We are still hopeful that uh you know mid year onwards you will actually see this sort of uh streamline much better. So we are still playing $885 per barrel for the average which gives us 6.5% growth story at this point in time and inflation more in the likes of 4.6 6 4.7%. Uh this does not include the agriculture shock that we may face because of bad >> and we talked about the fertilizer bit as well but Mr. Bharav since Madi is alluding towards the kind of hit that a consumers might have to take and many of the advisories are towards the consumption side of the story specifically calling out foreign travel over here. So how seriously do you think the aviation sector is going to take this? Could Indians actually pull back on overseas travel in a meaningful way?

[00:18:08]you know they will have no option but to pull back or defer their travel plans considering that ATF prices at a very elevated level the fairs have gone up many airlines in the world not just India have canled flights here India announced about 100 flights cancellation because you can't operate or meet the operational cost if you keep operating at these affairs and India is a price sensitive market affordability affairs is important thing so airlines have conventionally ally been selling tickets at par or making modest losses etc. But when you have are in a situation which you are currently in you simply cannot operate flight. So it has in fact automatically come into the airline that the number of flight being operated.

[00:18:52]Therefore the consumption of fuel has automatically gone down because the flights being operated are less today.

[00:18:59]But to allude to that the the covid times etc is not kind of thing for the aviation industry because when does a passenger travel when he has a trigger for some business meeting some social engagement weddings sporting events etc. So at the moment since the triggers are very much there those who can afford will travel give airlines the right to club flights there is no point in airlines operating multiple flights and flying at 50 60% load factor let them go up to 80% load factor with the proviso given by the DGC that higher load factors should not necessarily transfer translate into higher fairs because you have the bucket kind of system in aviation industry as you get on to the less number of seats being available the fairs shoot up. So DGCA must moderate it say look we are allowing you to cut down your operation flights so that you can cut down on fuel consumption you are more efficient more productive and the nation's priority need to be kept before your own personal >> so like Mr. Da was saying you think DGCA as a regulator needs to put down the strictures immediately or wait for stronger guidelines from the center.

[00:20:13]>> No, immediately. For example, DGCA has a lot of regulations which are pro passengers at the moment that you penalize airline should you delay a flight beyond a certain time. Now, if you continue to hold those kind of rules, regulations, it's a burden on the airlines. Give airline the flexibility of clubbing to flights up to a certain time limit and say look this will be allowed so that the number of flights operated are productive. Government airlines do not have to rush to the government for financial aid and you know quite a few airlines are on the verge of collapse because they simply can't afford less number of passengers traveling because of elevated fairs and higher operational costs.

[00:20:54]>> True Mr. Da India still this consumptiondriven economy. So when you're talking about the prime minister's signaling for restraint from gold to travel that we're talking about can it coexist with the need to keep demand alive in the economy?

[00:21:13]>> I think so. The prime minister has talked of say unnecessary travel weddings by the middle class being held outside the country because that's become a fair gold which is not necessary why should it be allowed to be imported.

[00:21:31]Similarly, if you can make a particular thing within India, make an India possibility is there why continue to import it? I am of the opinion that this the war which has disrupted certain supply chains and in our case many more because we are an import dependent economy for the three Fs the fuel food as well as fertilizers. Yes, >> the we need to be able to get ourselves down to accept the situation that for whatever reason we've had it good for the last 3 months the situation cannot continue this way for very much longer >> but then this route that we are taking Madi perhaps you can come in on this crude gold edible oil fertilizers together they account for a significant share of our imports so If households then pull back does it stabilize the macro picture for us but you know on the other hand you might have weakening demand on the ground.

[00:22:38]>> Correct Vikram that's the idea in the end right you need to curtail demand given the supply constraint that we're sitting with else there's a price impact which is uh you know visible uh so we don't necessarily have a current account problem at this point in time. Of course, gold share in the total imports has gone dramatically up in the last 2 years largely going to the price effect.

[00:22:58]Uh it used to be like 6 7% of total import bill. It is now touching close to 9 and a half% of the total import bill.

[00:23:05]Um there's not only just consumption demand for gold but also investment demand for gold that is uh playing out.

[00:23:11]So gold plus oil itself is a very big chunk of your uh overall uh import basket. um to that extent I think the aim is to basically cut I mean again as I said it's just it's not even a policy advisory this point in time it was just more like a national appeal so we'll see how things pan out but I think we don't have a current account problem uh as of now uh whatever supply shocks that we are facing there's not much that we can do but only curtail demand around that that's the way most Asian countries have also gone ahead by the way >> and you know Adita from what the prime minister has said he's also nudging EV adoption and reducing import dependence Is this crisis exposing how urgent India's energy transition really is?

[00:23:52]Because that's been the need for a long time now that entire transition if we can expedite it, it's really going to make things much easier. But I don't know how much can be done.

[00:24:02]>> No, certainly I think it's certainly this sort of geopolitical shocks are acting as a precise forcing function that justify accelerating energy transition in the country. Right? So it's not an ideology, it's a national strategic risk management. Uh EV adoption uh both in two wheelers and four-wheers certainly put a dent into passenger vehicles demand. On top of that, the call for public transportation in metro that also substitutes personal vehicle fuel uh consumption in a dense urban corridors. And these two alone create a significant dent in the passenger vehicles which alone cannot create a significant dent in overall demand but certainly a right uh place to start in a very initial posturing stage.

[00:24:50]>> Fair. And on top of that, this 500 gawatt uh renewable energy plan uh plant certainly cuts through the the the stagnant crude and fossil dependent sectors in industrial and pet camps where where this empowering the power sector to cut through fossil dependent sectors can can certainly help us to to to reduce our uh uh import dependence and that would be the second step where India has to show resilience and uh and uh and and eat eat up this uh this uh demand dependence in in the industrial sector.

[00:25:28]>> So Adita Mishra of all the measures that have been suggested and we are talking about cutting of the fuel use, work from home, the domestic travel, buying local, which one in your opinion is most practical and can make an immediate difference?

[00:25:42]I think uh reduction of import bill is the major uh focus that the prime minister is trying to achieve. So whether it is about converting it to EVs or car pooling or uh uh you know the gold uh reducing the gold consumption and some of these things. uh I see the there is an opportunity here for our domestic industry in renewables for example maybe the GCC's for uh as an example and some innovative startups to come in if government can support some of these policies on a little longer term I think most effective is going to bring people together by this national appeal and if some policies are formed to shape this national appeal to uh into action over a longer period of time rather than just one of announcement and hoping that some results will come.

[00:26:47]Well, that's a hope, but this is clearly not a routine advisory from the prime minister's side when he himself is asking citizens to cut consumption to uh defer spending to think twice before using resources. It does tell you that the risks ahead are real and possibly prolonged and this is India now trying to get ahead of a possible global shock because once it hits reacting late is not going to be an option. My thanks to my panelists Ajay Dwa, Chitendra Bharava, Madi Aurora, Aditya Saraswat and Aditya Mishra. Thank you so much for joining us with your perspective tonight. For us as uh we are consumers at this time that clarion call has come in. Now how much further the center is going to go in putting down the strictures that remains to be seen but it's really going to test the resilience of our economy. It's a piece that we are watching very closely as indeed I'm sure you are as well. I'm Vicramos on the big question. Thank you for joining us.