Exit polls are surveys conducted after voting to predict election outcomes, and they often reveal significant divergence across different polling organizations. In Tamil Nadu, exit polls showed wide variation in projections for TVK (ranging from 98 to 120 seats), while other polls like Metric projected a clear majority for the DMK alliance (122-132 seats). This divergence highlights the uncertainty surrounding new political entrants and the challenges of predicting election results. The analysis also reveals that voter behavior can shift dramatically, with young voters (under 19) showing strong preferences for change, as seen in Kerala where 51% of new voters supported the UDF compared to 37% for the LDF.
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Tamil Nadu Exit Poll | VIJAY: THE REAL 'JANA NAYAGAN'? | Unmissable | News9Added:
From the exit polls that have emerged, we're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. From a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force, TVK's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics. And no, this is not only about Tamil Nad politics. If this does happen, it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody like Vijay almost like a mainstream party. Something that's not happened for a very long time. I think last that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kijal. However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture.
Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark.
Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JVC offers a contrasting view projecting the AIADMKled victory highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers vary sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as for Access My India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout, the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating, the high stakes remain very very clear. Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well.
We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the uh the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Indir Mallaya Mukharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well. Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashi should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muriharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean, you know, largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving Vijay quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge.
>> Yeah. Yeah. That's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands onience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two days per TV I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by smy India it doesn't yeah I mean what kind of I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut This would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See, I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party for a debut.
Yeah. Yeah. It's a big thing. Definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things. I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu. people wanted some alternative for both the Draidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for alternative you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions.
He did TV wij has not done any interviews. He has not done any media interactions. He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into Woods. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
>> Nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those seats are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
Yes. No. No actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Lealitha joined a party that was already established. No, she joined EDMK. So I will not add Jita to that list. But no act actor after MGR was able to pull this off. You know like there were many people who tried. Vijay Gan was the last person. Kamla Hassan was the last person. He came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off, I am like and I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu. That that's what I would describe it as. Something has changed.
>> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one we'll come to that in a bit but sticking to Kerala it's a narrow margin whether you are seeing 33 53 whether you are seeing 42 45 whatever the margin of difference really is it's not a big margin but no surprises >> what you said is Correct. You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10-year-old rule by the LDF and PJ you know the funny thing is that majority of the new voters huge huge majority. Uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 three but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear.
Youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George Mr. Judge let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress UF which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know The take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people you maybe see four seats is not a big It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground.
It did manage to get one seat earlier.
Uh but they even after that it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijayan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things.
And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life. Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumbenty because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots.
>> Now what they could cover all these boots, the granular structure, the anti-inccumbmany, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least a pull.
>> You never know. You never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183.
So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Priy Priya Dadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri, you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh Asam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear pol of polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorakugoi took the lead of APC, he became the president, he became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront, it was very late if you remember. It was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what it has been seen I don't think that Congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that God of go is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immediate just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Asam you know you have had a lot issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from koi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how hima played uh felt pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into it >> no that was not impact ing at all and neither the Gorov go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bhuya Sharma's allegedly false passport links nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter >> it did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a samed was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that schemes for the women, the women voters and the young generation voters, they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief.
>> All right, we're totally out of time but thank you so much. This is going to be an interesting poll of polls. It's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Murliharan, thank you so much. And Priti Priya, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system is Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for WJ's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then VijvK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kijal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK le victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through what is emerging ing increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Mallaya Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and uh Priti Priyadashi should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muriharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls >> but you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite thumping seats that's going to be huge >> yeah that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands-on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J party TV I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by SM India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of uh I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut >> this would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party for yeah yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacuum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all directions you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews.
He has not done any media interactions.
He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they are portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those seats are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the Yes. No. No actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established. You know, she joined EDMK.
So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you know like there were many people who tried. Vijay Gan was the last person. Kamala Hassan was the last person. He came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off, I am like I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu.
That that's what I would describe it as.
Something has changed.
>> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one we'll come to that in a bit but sticking to Kerala it's a narrow margin whether you are seeing 33 53 whether you are seeing 42 45 whatever the margin of difference really is it's not a big margin but no surprises what you said is very correct act. You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know in the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every exit poll says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10-year-old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George, Mr. George, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress le UF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> yeah definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing real challenges >> right >> and and for BJP Maybe you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but they even after that it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You will have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mhar G. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi for everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the DNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
>> Confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP, so for BJP in the past in West Bengal. You you never know. Now they are 70 they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priyadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri, you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDSK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorokugoy took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and right I just want to ask you one quick question because It's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorav Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bhuya Sharma's allegedly false passport links nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter >> it did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a >> things that was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were as I always say always take these with a pinch of salt we've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not but nonetheless very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes thank you so much for joining us thank you George Khalil thank you so much Kavita Muri Dharan thank you so much and Priti Priyadni thank you so much a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system as Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wages TVK. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then Vij TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in also. You know it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. From a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force, TVK's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics. And no, this is not only about Tamil Nad politics. If this does happen, it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party. Something that's not happened for a very long time. I think last that's happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal. However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture.
Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark.
Praa poll goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view projecting the AIADMKled victory highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers vary sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as for Access My India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout, the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating, the high stakes remain very very clear. Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well.
We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain this is not a very big margin this is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you get getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Nirmala Mukharji who is a senior journalist, George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well, Kavita Muriharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Murliharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean you know largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls but you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge >> yeah that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil people who covered Tamil group of journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to VJ party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads my India yeah it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of uh I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party for yeah yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all the cases you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV w has not done any interviews. He has not done any media interactions. He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving them a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those seats are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the Yes. No. No actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Lea to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established. You know, she joined EDMK.
So, I will not add Jita to that list.
But no act actor after MDR was able to pull this off. You know, like there were many people who tried. Vijay Gan was the last person, Kamla Hassan was the last person. He came and he had a legacy of his own, but he was not able to do it.
So if Vijay is pulling it off, I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu. That that's what I would describe it as. Something has changed.
>> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one we'll come to that in a bit but sticking to Kerala it's a narrow margin whether you are seeing 33 53 whether you are seeing 42 45 whatever the margin of difference really is it's not a big margin but no surprises >> like what you said is very correct fact you know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10year-old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George, Mr. George, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the congress urf which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left what only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know The take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but even after that, it was it was out a duck. Very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijayan is on his third term.
Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large.
You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life. Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharj some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumby because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi for everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots. The granular structure, the anti-inccumbmany, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together. Now that is putting ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least.
>> You never know, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 18. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Priiti Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead, we'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar of polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorakoy took the lead of APC, he became the president, he became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late. If you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from From the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Asam you So you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what Hima biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into it.
No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorango Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in Ased was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Muriharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for Wij's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly.
If it's true, then VJ TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force. TVK's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think last that happened at this level would be possibly Arvin with KJal however other exit polls present a more conventional picture Mric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling fling it well above the halfway mark goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance on the other hand JVC offers a contrasting view projecting the AIA DMKled victory highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters meanwhile TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as per access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear.
Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well. We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Carolum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by India Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Muriharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and Priiti Priya should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muridharan at this point Kavitta um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah, that's astonishing because I'll tell you Niha what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two J party TV I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads my India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> Bis would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a new B party for a debut in yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image. I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did. Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews he has not done any media interactions he has only done speeches at public rallies huge huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed >> many would have said and that's been the narrative Vijay is a novice he may he may not convert his fan following into votes but again just coming back to >> largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground >> yes no no no actor after MGR I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established you know she joined EDMK so I will not add Jay Leita to that list but no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you You know like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it.
So if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me get in Mr. George at this point we'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF, but you know, Vij's emergence, if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one. We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 33 53, whether you are seeing 42 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin, but no surprises.
I hope what you said is very correct.
You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralam you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10year-old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear.
Youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George, Mr. George, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the congress lef which of course will be a headline itself but the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second we really don't know these are poll of polls you know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? You know, some of them even giving four seats. If that happens also, it's a big deal.
>> Yeah, definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India. The whole of India, you know, after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left us only hope was in Kerala.
Right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people it maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but they even after that it was it was out a duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another Sorry.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijayan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year so that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on and the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumb >> BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these boots, the granular structure, the anti-inccumby, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together. Now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything. confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi.
That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least a >> no, you never know. I was saying about this manta went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorakugoi took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. his time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that Congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that God of go is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because It's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from kogoy but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how hima played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorovogy Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in Assam.
>> The things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief.
>> All right we're totally out of time but thank you so much. This is going to be an interesting poll of polls. Uh it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times. And um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications. And if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Nirkji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Murliharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-p partyy system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wij's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then VijvK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force. TV case performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think last happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal however other exit polls present a more conventional picture Mrice projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance on the other hand JVC offers a contrasting view projecting the AIADMKled victory highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters meanwhile TV's numbers very sharply in these surveys ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as per access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout, the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating. The high stakes remain very very clear. Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well.
We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u uh the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Indirlaya Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muriharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah. That's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two days per day.
I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads India. It doesn't Yeah. I mean what kind of uh I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had. So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand. I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote jalan again because that would have still been a decent debut >> this would be unprecedented in Tamil politics >> yes see I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I Even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party for a debut.
Yeah. Yeah. It's a big thing. Definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacuum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK. There is one section of people that is always looking for alternative you know >> and Vijay fits into this image. I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did. Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews he has not done any media interactions he has only done speeches at public rallies huge huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed many would have said and that's been the narrative Vijay is a novice he may he may not convert his fan following into votes but again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats.
Even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Lalitha joined a party that was already established, you know, she joined EDMK.
So I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you know like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamala Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I like and this I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me and Mr. George at this point will try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well.
Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one. We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
I have what you said is very correct.
You know, there is no surprise or it was expected, you know, the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala. Kam you know everybody every export says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10 year old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF 37 only for LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lowest almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George Mr. George let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led UF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know. These are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP Maybe you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but they even after that it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You will have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same pace and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb BJP has done that.
BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything. confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi.
That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priyadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Priti, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDSK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Asam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear. Polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorapugo took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late. If you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Assam you You have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh felt pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into it >> no that was not impacting at all and neither the Gorav Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bhuya Sharma's allegedly false passport links nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter >> it did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that schemes for the women, the women voters and the young generation voters, they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief.
>> All right, we're totally out of time but thank you so much. This is going to be an interesting poll of polls. It's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Muriharan, thank you so much. And Priti Priya, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wages TVK. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly.
If it's true, then Vij TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We are trying to get you a poll of polls. The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrant. The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praapole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK led victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through what is emerging ing increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the uh the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain this is not a very big margin this is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Nirmala Mukharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalibel who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well. Kavita Muridharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashi should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Mliharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean, you know, largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving uh wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge.
>> Yeah. Yeah. It's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands onience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by a spy India it doesn't yeah I mean what kind of I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut This would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See, I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party. Yeah. Yeah. It's a big thing. Definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things.
I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu.
people wanted some alternative for both the Draidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for alternative you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions.
He did TV wij has not done any interviews. He has not done any media interactions. He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they are portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again, just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number. We'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Lea to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established. You know, she joined EDMK.
So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MDR was able to pull this off. You know like there are many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed.
>> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
>> What you said is very correct. You know, there is no surprise or it was expected, you know, the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala.
Keralum you know everybody every export says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10 year old rule by the LDF and B IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you can check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear want to change >> you know Mr. George Mr. judge let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led URF1 which of course will be a headline itself but the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know. These are poll of polls. You know, voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong. But if at all the UDF is to win, the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talked is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal?
Definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India.
the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seeds in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be a major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but even after that it was it was out a duck. Very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijan is on his third term Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large. You will have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharj some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
>> Confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> No, no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. You you never know. Now they are 70 they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Priyadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri, you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorokugoy took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what him biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorang go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Sharma's allegedly false passport links.
Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us n Mukharji thank you George Khalil thank you so much Kavita Muriharan thank you so much and Priti Priyadni thank you so much a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wij's TV the exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly if it's true then Vij TV will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth but this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged. We are trying to get you a poll of polls. The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrant.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like wij almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think last that's happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa poll goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMKled victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through what is emerging ing increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain this is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Carolum largely you get getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Indirala Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalibel who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Muriharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muridharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah that's that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who've covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two days per TV I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> Bis would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a new B party for a debut in yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image. I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did. Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews he has not done any media interactions he has only done speeches at public rallies huge huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they portrayed many would have said and that's been the narrative Vijay is a novice he may he may not convert his fan following into votes but again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground >> yes no no no actor after MGR I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jaya joined a party that was already established you know she joined EDMK so I will not add Jay Leita to that list but no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me get in Mr. George at this point we'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF, but you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, it's going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin, but no surprises.
I hope what you said is very correct.
You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10year-old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear.
Youngsters want a change.
>> You know, Mr. George, Mr. George, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the congress le urf one which of course will be a headline itself but the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second we really don't know these are poll of polls you know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? You know, some of them even giving four seats. If that happens also, it's a big deal.
>> Yeah, definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India. The whole of India, you know, after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left us what only hope was in Kerala. Right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but they even after that it was it was out a duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another Sorry.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijayan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and himto Vishna Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year so that is the reason Lakshmi bhar and kasi and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on and the third thing is that ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party >> you know you know here's where the trick is Mukharji some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumby because BJP has done that >> BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbancy for that matter No BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi for everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TMC people only want that they are all proved wrong.
>> Okay. Now, now BJP, I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working. This is very typical with BJP only. This granular structure is they could not even cover the boots. In the last election, >> okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these books the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting ma in the back seat ma was too confident that she can tackle everything >> confident fierce confrontational going up right to Delhi that's going to be something to really watch out for but again as I said I don't think the margins are too big you know at the face of it Say look at least the >> you never know you never know I was saying about this manta went up from 30 to 183 so that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP so for BJP in the past in West Bengal so you you never know now they are 70 they can cross 200 you never know >> true sir I'm totally out of time I need to go to Mr. uh Priti Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh w with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats it's a big big deal. Uh Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see. Sorry. Uh West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. are expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorokugo took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll this time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that Congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that God of go is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just in just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Assam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sharma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorang go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. It did not it did not resonate with people and voters in Asam.
>> The things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief.
>> All right we're totally out of time but thank you so much. This is going to be an interesting poll of polls. Uh it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications. And if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Nirkji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Murliharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system as Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for WJ's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then Vij TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think last that's happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK Alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMKled victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through what is emerging ing increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the uh uh the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh left backed axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Indiria Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priya should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muridharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah, that's astonishing because I'll tell you Niha what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads my India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote jalanagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a new B party for debut. Yeah.
Yeah. It's a big thing definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK. there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interaction He did TV wij has not done any interviews.
He has not done any media interactions.
He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving them a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Lalitha joined a party that was already established. No, she joined EDMK. So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off. You know there were many people who tried. Vijay Gandh was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed.
>> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. And let me get in Mr. George at this point.
We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
>> What you said is very correct. You know, there is no surprise or it was expected, you know, the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala.
Kam you know everybody every export says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10 year old rule by the LDF and PJ you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF 37 only for LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters no they want a change there LDF got LDF lowest almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear.
Youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George Mr. George let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive but here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala the headline is going to be two it's not going to be the you know the congress lef which of course will be a headline itself but the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second we really don't know these are poll of polls you know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP how do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in uh West Bengal and Tribura left has what only hoped was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly That will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people you maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but even after that it was it was out a duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukhar G quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijayan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year so that is the reason Lakshmi bhar and kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on and the third thing is that ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party. You know, you you know, here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumbency because BJP has done that.
>> BJP has successfully done that has, you know, removed its multiple time MPs, MLAs, CMS, and has brought in new faces, brought in the new church and completely thwarted anti- um, you know, the anti-inccumbenty for that matter. No BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi for everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong because now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even cover the boots in the last election >> okay >> there were about 78,000 boots this time it is 80,000 boots now what they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting ma in the back seat ma was too confident that she can tackle everything >> confident fierce confrontational going up right to Delhi that's going to be something to really watch out for but again as I said I don't think the margins are too big you know at the face of it may look at least a pull >> you never know you never know I was saying about this ma went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70 they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Pri Priya Dashi who's been very patiently waiting.
Thank you so much. Um Miss Prii you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh w with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats it's a big big deal. Uh Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear poll of polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. uh expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorakugoi took the lead of APCC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll this time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that Congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that God of go is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right I just want to ask you one quick question because It's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how hima played uh felt pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Goravoy Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Buhya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sed was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Mukhar G thank you George Khalil thank you so much Kavita Murlih Dharan thank you so much and Priti Priyadashani thank you so much a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wij's TV the exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly if it's true then vig suggest TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrant.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force. TVK's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think last happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal however other exit polls present a more conventional picture metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling fling it well above the halfway mark goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance on the other hand JVC offers a contrasting view projecting the AIA DMKled victory highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters meanwhile TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as per access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear.
Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well. We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u uh the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Carolum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Indir Mallaya Mukharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well. Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priya should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muridharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean, you know, largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge.
>> Yeah. Yes. That's astonishing because I'll tell you Niha what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who've covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two J perk I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads India it doesn't yeah I mean what kind of I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote jalani again because that would have still been a decent debut This would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
>> Yes. See, I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20%, not beyond 20%. And even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a new B party for a debut. Yeah.
Yeah. It's a big thing. Definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things. I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu. people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK adm there is one section of people that is always looking for alternatives you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions.
He did TV wij has not done any interviews. He has not done any media interactions. He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number. We'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Laitha joined a party that was already established, you know, she joined EDMK.
So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you know like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nadu that's a very interesting point let me get Mr. George at this point we'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well.
Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF, but you know, Vij's emergence, if at all, however it does happen, it's going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 33 53, whether you are seeing 42 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin, but no surprises.
I have what you said is very correct.
You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10year-old rule by the LDF and PRG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear.
Youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George Mr. George let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive but here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala.
The headline is going to be two. It's not going to be the you know the congress lef one which of course will be a headline itself but the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second we really don't know these are poll of polls you know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? You know, some of them even giving four seats. If that happens also, it's a big deal.
>> Yeah, definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India. The whole of India, you know, after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala.
Right >> now this time they they facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people it maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but they even after that it was it was out a duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another Sorry.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijayan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hamilton Vishna Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year so that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on and the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumb >> BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong >> now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots. The granular structure, the anti-inccumby, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together.
Now that is putting Ma in the back seat.
Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything. confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi.
That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least a >> no, you never know. I was saying about this manta went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorakugoi took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll this time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what it has been seen I don't think that Congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that God of go is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because It's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from kogoy but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how hima played uh felt pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into So that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorang go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter. It did not it did not resonate with people and voters in Asam.
>> The things that impacted was employment generation by the government NBA also along with that schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief.
>> All right we're totally out of time but thank you so much. This is going to be an interesting poll of polls. Uh it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times. And um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications. And if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Nirkji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Murliharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for WJ's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then VijvK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force. TVK's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think last happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal however other exit polls present a more conventional picture metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance on the other hand JVC offers a contrasting view projecting the AIADMKled victory highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters meanwhile TV's numbers very sharply in these surveys ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats. As for Access My India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout, the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating, the high stakes remain very very clear. Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well.
We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Indiria Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muridharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah, that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nad people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote jalani again because that would have still been a decent debut this >> would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See uh I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20%. And even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newb party for debut. Yeah.
Yeah. It's a big thing. Definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things. I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu. People wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK. there is one section of people that is always looking for alternative you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interaction He did TV wij has not done any interviews.
He has not done any media interactions.
He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR, I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established. No, she joined EDMK. So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off. You know there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamala Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off, I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu. That that's what I would describe it as. Something has changed.
>> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one we'll come to that in a bit but sticking to Kerala it's a narrow margin whether you are seeing 33 53 whether you are seeing 42 45 whatever the margin of difference really is it's not a big margin but no surprises >> what you said is very correct You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know in the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10-year-old rule by the LDF and PJ you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority ity. Uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know, Mr. George, Mr. Judge, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress UF1, which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left has only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP Maybe you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but they even after that it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijay is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You will have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things.
And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life. Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb BJP has done that.
BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots.
>> Now what they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything. confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least >> no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Priy Priya Dashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDSK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Asam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorugoi took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember. It was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that Congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of Google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Asam you know you have had a lot issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh felt pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into it >> no that was not impact ing at all and neither the Gorov go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another person is also doing the counter >> it did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a samed was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were as I always say always take these with a pinch of salt we've had cake on our face many times and Um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not but nonetheless very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes thank you so much for joining us NLA Mukharji thank you George Khalil thank you so much Kavita Muriharan thank you so much and Priti Priya thank you so much a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wages TVK. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true then Vij TV will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 902 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in also. You know it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praapole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK led victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as per access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through what is emerging ing increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain this is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Mallaya Mukharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well, Kavita Muridharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and uh Priti Priyadashi should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muriharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean you know largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls >> but you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge >> yeah that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil people who covered Tamil number of journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by a spy India it doesn't yeah I mean what kind of uh I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party for yeah yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Draidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all the occasions you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews.
He has not done any media interactions.
He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jaya to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established.
You know, she joined EDMK. So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off. You know like there are many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed.
>> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
>> I hope what you said is very correct.
You know, there is no surprise or it was expected, you know, the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala. Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10 year old rule by the LDF and P IGJ you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you can check with the below 30 youngsters no they want a change there LDF got LDF lowest almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear the youngsters want a change >> you know Mr. George Mr. Josh, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led UF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know. These are poll of polls. You know, voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong. But if at all the UDF is to win, the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talked is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal.
Definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India.
the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be a major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big deal it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but even after that it It was it was out a duck. Very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijay is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large. You will have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mharaj G. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbency for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on his channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TMC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
>> Confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at the >> No, no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. You you never know. Now they are 70 they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priyadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri, you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorokugoy took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what it has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just im just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what him biswar sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into So that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Goravoy Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Sharma's allegedly false passport links.
Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Muriharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priya, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for ware TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly.
If it's true, then VJS TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth but this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged. We are trying to get you a poll of polls. The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like wij almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa poll goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK led victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear.
Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well. We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain this is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Mallayala Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalibel who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Muriharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Murliharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah, that's astonishing because I'll tell you Niha what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who've covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads my India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newb party for a debut in yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image. I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did. Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews he has not done any media interactions he has only done speeches at public rallies huge huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they portrayed many would have said and that's been the narrative Vijay is a novice he may he may not convert his fan following into votes but again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground >> yes no no no actor after MGR I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jaya joined a party that was already established you know she joined EDMK so I will not add Jay Leita to that list but no uh actor after MGR was able to pull this off you There were many people who tried. Vijay Gan was the last person. Kamla Hassan was the last person. He came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off, I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu.
That that's what I would describe it as.
Something has >> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF, but you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, it's going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 33 53, whether you are seeing 42 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin, but no surprises.
I have what you said is very correct.
You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10year-old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George, Mr. George, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the congress urf which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> yeah definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left what only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenges >> right >> and and for BJP you know The take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but they even after that it was it was out a duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijayan is on his third term.
Stalin on his second and himto Vishna Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large.
You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life. Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbancy for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi for everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TMC people only want that they are all proved wrong now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
>> Confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> You never know. You never know. I was saying about this Manta went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. You you never know now they are 70 they can cross 200 you never know true sir I'm totally out of time I need to go to Mr. uh Priti Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats it's a big big deal. Uh Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh expected exactly but yeah we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorugo took the lead of APC he became the president he became the main person to lead the entire poll this time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Assam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorang go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in Asam >> things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Mukarj thank you George Khalil thank you so much Kavita Muliharan thank you so much and Prrii Priyadni thank you so a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wij's TV the exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly if it's true then Vij TV will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance.
This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force. TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics. If this does happen, it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody like Vijay almost like a mainstream party.
Something that's not happened for a very long time. I think last that happens at this level would be possibly are with KJAL. However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark.
Praapole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK Alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMKled victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear.
Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well. We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Indiria Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priya should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muridharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving Vijay quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah. That's astonishing because I'll tell you niha what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands onience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two days per week. I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by Ads Spy India. It doesn't Yeah, it I mean what kind of uh I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote jalanagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a new B party for debut. Yeah.
Yeah. It's a big thing definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK. there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interaction He did TV wij has not done any interviews.
He has not done any media interactions.
He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving them a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established. You know, she joined EDMK.
So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you know like there were many people who tried Vijay Gandh was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me and Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well.
Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one. We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
>> What you said is very correct. You know, there is no surprise or it was expected, you know, the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala.
Kam you know everybody every export says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10 year old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF 37 only for LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters no they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear.
Youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George Mr. George let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive but here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala the headline is going to be two it's not going to be the you know the congress lef which of course will be a headline itself but the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second we really don't know these are poll of polls you know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talked is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP how do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in Best Bengal and Tribura left has only hoped was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly That will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people you maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but even after that it was it was out a duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijayan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hamilton Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneeded seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year so that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on and the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party. You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumbenty because BJP has done that >> BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new church and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting. PJP waits.
>> They waited in Orisa. They waited in Delhi for everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground.
>> In Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are poor all proved wrong because now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working. This is very typical with BJP only. This granular structure is they could not even cover the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these books the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting ma in the back seat ma was too confident that she can tackle everything >> confident fierce confrontational going up right to Delhi that's going to be something to really watch out for but again as I said I don't think the margins are too big you know at the face of it They look at least the poll.
>> You never know. You never know. I was saying about this manta went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. They can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Priy Priya Dashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh w with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats it's a big big deal. Uh Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see. Sorry. Uh West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear poll of polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. uh expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorakugoi took the lead of APCC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll this time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how hima played uh felt pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Goravoy Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Mukhar G thank you George Khalil thank you so much Kavita Murliharan thank you so much and Priti Priya Darashani thank you so much a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for ware's TV the exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly if it's true then Vij TV will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK Alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JVC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK le victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through what is emerging ing increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Indra Mallaya Mukharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well, Kavita Muridharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashi should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muriharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean you know largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls >> but you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite thumping seats that's going to be huge >> yeah that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil people who covered Tamil number of journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands onience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J's party to TVK I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by spying India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of uh I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote John because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
Yes. See u I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party for a debut.
Yeah. Yeah. It's a big thing definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacuum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Draidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK. there is one section of people that is always looking for alternatives you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interaction He did TV wij has not done any interviews.
He has not done any media interactions.
He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those seats are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the Yes. No. No actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Lealitha joined a party that was already established. You know, she joined EDMK.
So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no act actor after MGR was able to pull this off. You know there are many people who tried. Vijay Gan was the last person. Kamala Hassan was the last person. He came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it.
So if Vijay is pulling it off, I am like I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu. That that's what I would describe it as. Something has changed.
>> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one we'll come to that in a bit but sticking to Kerala it's a narrow margin whether you are seeing 33 53 whether you are seeing 42 45 whatever the margin of difference really is it's not a big margin but no surprises >> what you said is very correct act. You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10-year-old rule by the LDF and IGM you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know, Mr. George, Mr. George, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led UF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing real challenges >> right >> and and for BJP Maybe you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but they even after that it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You will have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mharaj G. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb BJP has done that.
BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi for everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots. The granular structure, the anti-inccumbmany, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together. Now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi.
>> That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> no you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 18. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal so you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priyadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Prii, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Asam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear. Polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorokugo took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late. If you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Assam you You have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into it >> no that was not impacting at all and neither the Gorov go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bhuya Sharma's allegedly false passport links nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter >> it did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a >> things that was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes seems for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were as I always say always take these with a pinch of salt we've had cake on our face many times And um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much.
Kavita Muriharan thank you so much and Priti Priya thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system as Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wages TVK. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then Vij TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. From a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force, TVK's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics. And no, this is not only about Tamil Nad politics. If this does happen, it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party. Something that's not happened for a very long time. I think last that's happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal. However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture.
Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark.
Praa poll goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view projecting the AIADMKled victory highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers vary sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as for Access My India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout, the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating, the high stakes remain very very clear. Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well.
We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain this is not a very big margin this is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you get getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Indirala Mukharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well, Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muriharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean you know largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls but you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge >> yeah that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who've covered Tamil Number of journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands onience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads my India yeah it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of uh I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Tavita if it does happen you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
Yes. See u I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newb party for a debut. Yeah.
Yeah. It's a big thing definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both theian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK. there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of media interaction He did TV wij has not done any interviews. He has not done any media interactions. He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into words. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving them a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Lea to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established. You know, she joined EDMK.
So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MDR was able to pull this off you know like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
>> I hope what you said is very correct.
You know, there is no surprise or it was expected, you know, the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala. Kam you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10-year-old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lowest almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear.
Youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George Mr. George let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the congress urf which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know. These are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left what only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP Maybe you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but even after that, it was it was out a duck. Very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijayan is on his third term.
Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large.
You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life. Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharj some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on his channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
>> Confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 18. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. You you never know. Now they are 70 they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Priiti Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri, you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Goravoy took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what it has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Assam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what him biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorang go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Muriharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system as Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for Wij's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly.
If it's true, then VJ TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force. TVK's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics. And no, this is not only about Tamil Nad politics. If this does happen, it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody like Vijay almost like a mainstream party. Something that's not happened for a very long time. I think last that happens at this level would be possibly are with Kjal. However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture.
Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling fling it well above the halfway mark. Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK led victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear.
Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well. We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Carolum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's this uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Mallaya Mukharji who's a senior journalist. George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well.
Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and uh Priiti Priya should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Murlharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely it's it I it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls but you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving uh wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge >> yeah that's astonishing because I'll tell you sniha what's happening in tamar people who covered tam journalists who write in tamil come couple of them have done surveys in tamil and you know hands they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two js per RD TV I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of uh I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote jalani again because that would have still been a decent debut this >> would be unprecedented in Tamil politics >> yes see I'm expecting vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party for a debutant yeah yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacuum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for alternative you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in. He came in with experience. He came in with not being shy of interacting, of making his stand public of of media interactions.
He did TV wij has not done any interviews. He has not done any media interactions. He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they are portrayed. Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been. Access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number. We'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established. No, she joined EDMK. So, I will not add Jay Alita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you know like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamala Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I like this I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me and Mr. George at this point will try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well.
Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one. We'll come to that in a bit but sticking to Kerala it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
What you said is very correct. You know, there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala.
Kam you know everybody every export says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10 year old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF 37 only for LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters no they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear the youngsters want a change >> you know Mr. George Mr. J let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led UF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know. These are poll of polls. You know, voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong. But if at all the UDF is to win, the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal.
Definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India.
the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left has what only hoped was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenges >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seeds in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people it maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but even after that it It was it was out a duck. Very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hamilton Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb BJP has done that.
BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi for everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots.
>> Now what they could cover all these boots, the granular structure, the anti-incumbency, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything. confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least a no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Priy Priya Dashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Priti, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDSK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Asam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorakugoi took the lead of APC, he became the president, he became the main person to lead the entire poll. his time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just im just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right >> right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh felt pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorav Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls uh it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Mukharji thank you George Khalil thank you so much Kavita Muriharan thank you so much and Priti Priya thank you so much a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wages TVK the exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly if it's true then Vij TV will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JVC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK le victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as per access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through what is emerging ing increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain this is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Mallaya Mukharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well, Kavita Muridharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and uh Priti Priyadashi should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muriharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean you know largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls but you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge >> yeah that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil people who covered Tamil number of journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by a spy India it doesn't yeah I mean what kind of uh I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party for yeah yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacuum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Draidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all their occasions you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews.
He has not done any media interactions.
He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they are portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jaya to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established.
No, she joined EDMK. So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MDR was able to pull this off. You know like there are many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed.
>> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
I have what you said is very correct.
You know, there is no surprise or it was expected, you know, the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala. Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10 year old rule by the LDF and B IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters no they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear want to change >> you know Mr. George Mr. Josh, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led UDF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know. These are poll of polls. You know, voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong. But if at all the UDF is to win, the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal.
Definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India.
the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be a major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but even after that it was it was out a duck. Very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijay is on his third term Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large. You will have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mhar G. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TMC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything. confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi.
>> That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at the >> No, no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priyadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead, we'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorokugoy took the lead of APC, he became the president, he became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late. If you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Assam you So you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what him biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into it So that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Goravoy Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Ba Sharma's allegedly false passport links nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Muriharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priya, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wij TVk. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly.
If it's true, then VJS TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and forth. But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged. We're trying to get you a poll of polls. The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa poll goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMKled victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as for Access My India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout, the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating. The high stakes remain very very clear. Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well.
We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain this is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Mallayala Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Muriharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Murliharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah, that's astonishing because I'll tell you Niha what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who've covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two days per day I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a new B party for a debut in yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image. I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did. Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews he has not done any media interactions he has only done speeches at public rallies huge huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they portrayed many would have said and that's been the narrative Vijay is a novice he may he may not convert his fan following into votes but again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground >> yes no no no actor after MGR I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jaya joined a party that was already established you know she joined EDMK so I will not add Jay Leita to that list but no uh actor after MGR was able to pull this off you There were many people who tried. Vijay Gan was the last person. Kamla Hassan was the last person. He came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off, I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu.
That that's what I would describe it as.
Something has >> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF, but you know Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin, but no surprises.
>> I hope what you said is very correct.
You know, there is no surprise or it was expected. You know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralam you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10year-old rule by the LDF and IVJ you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know, Mr. George, Mr. Josh, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the congress urf which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second we really don't know these are poll of polls you know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP how do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> yeah definitely Because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India. the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenges >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seeds in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but even after that it was it was out a duck. Very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijayan is on his third term Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large.
You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life. Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbancy for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on his channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these boots, the granular structure, the anti-inccumbmany, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything. confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi.
That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least a >> no, you never know. I was saying about this manta went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
Now now they are 70 they can cross 200 you never know >> true sir I'm totally out of time I need to go to Mr. uh Priti Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats it's a big big deal. Uh Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see. Sorry. Uh West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh expected >> exactly but yeah we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorafugo took the lead of APC he became the president he became the main person to lead the entire poll this time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Assam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what him biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorov allegedly false passport links nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a >> sed was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Mukhar G thank you George Khalil thank you so much Kavita Murliharan thank you so much and Priti Priya Darashani thank you so much a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for ware's TV the exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly if it's true then Vij TV will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JVC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK le victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as for Access My India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout, the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating. The high stakes remain very very clear. Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well.
We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain this is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Indir Mallaya Mukharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalibel who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well. Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and Kavita Murliharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean, you know, largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge.
>> Yeah. It's astonishing because I'll tell you Niha what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who've covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two days per TV I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut This would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See, I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a new B party for a debut. Yeah.
Yeah. It's a big thing. Definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things. I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu. people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for alternative you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kamita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions.
He did TV wij has not done any interviews. He has not done any media interactions. He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into words. But again, just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number. We'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jaya joined a party that was already established.
You know, she joined EDMK. So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MDR was able to pull this off you know like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nadu that's a very interesting point let me and Mr. George at this point will try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well.
Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one. We'll come to that in a bit but sticking to Kerala it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
What you said is very correct. You know, there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala.
Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10 year old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear.
Youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George Mr. George let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth happens in Kerala the headline is going to be two. It's not going to be the you know the Congress led UDF1 which of course will be a headline itself but the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know. These are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP.
How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP Maybe you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but they even after that it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large. You will have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukhar G. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbency for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TMC people only want that they are all proved wrong now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots. The granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything. confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi.
That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> No, no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priyadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead, we'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorokugoy took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late. If you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Assam you So you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what him biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into it No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorang go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Ba Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Muriharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system is Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for WJ's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singer's largest force in the 234 member assembly.
If it's true, then VJS TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and forth. But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged. We are trying to get you a poll of polls. The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like wij almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa poll goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK led victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as for Access My India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout, the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating. The high stakes remain very very clear. Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well.
We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain this is not a very big margin this is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Carolum largely you get getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Indirala Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalibel who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Muriharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Murlharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah, that's astonishing because I'll tell you Niha what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who've covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two days per TV I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> Bis would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newb party for a debut in yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image. I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did. Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews he has not done any media interactions he has only done speeches at public rallies huge huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they portrayed many would have said and that's been the narrative Vijay is a novice he may he may not convert his fan following into votes but again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground >> yes no no no actor after MGR I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jaya joined a party that was already established you know she joined EDMK so I will not add Jay Leita to that list but no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me get in Mr. George at this point we'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF, but you know, Vij's emergence, if at all, however it does happen, it's going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. The margin of difference really is it's not a big margin, but no surprises.
I have what you said is very correct.
You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know in the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10-year-old rule by the LDF and PJ you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George, Mr. Judge, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led UF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP Maybe you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but they even after that it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Heat Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things.
And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life. Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb BJP has done that.
BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots.
>> Now what they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir confident that she can tackle everything >> confident fierce confrontational going up right to Delhi that's going to be something to really watch out for. But again as I said I don't think the margins are too big you know at the face of it may look at least the >> no no you never know I was saying about this manta went up from 30 to 183 so that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP so for BJP in the past in West Bengal so you you never know now they are 70 they can cross 200 you never know >> true sir I'm totally out of time I need to go to Mr. uh Priti Priyadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats it's a big big deal. Uh Assam possibly in the lead we'll have to see. Sorry uh West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar of polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh expected exactly but yeah we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Goravoy took the lead of APC he became the president he became the main person to lead the entire poll this time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what him biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorang go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Sharma's allegedly false passport links.
Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Muriharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system as Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for WJ's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then VJ TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and forth. But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged. We're trying to get you a poll of polls. The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force. TVK's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal however other exit polls present a more conventional picture Mrice projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to32 two seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling flacing it well above the halfway mark. Praapole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JVC offers a contrasting view projecting the AIADMKled victory highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers vary sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as for Access My India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout, the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating, the high stakes remain very very clear. Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well.
We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the uh the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain this is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you get getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Mallaya Mukharji who is a senior journalist George Khalibel who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and uh Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Mliharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls but you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge >> yeah that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil people who covered Tamil journalists to write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands-on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by a spy India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> Bis would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party for yeah yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all the occasions you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews.
He has not done any media interactions.
He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they are portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those seats are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the Yes. No. No actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Laitha to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established. You know, she joined EDMK.
So, I will not add Jita to that list.
But no act actor after MDR was able to pull this off. You know, like there are many people who tried. Vijay Gan was the last person. Kamla Hassan was the last person. He came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off, I like I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu. That that's what I would describe it as. Something has changed.
>> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one we'll come to that in a bit but sticking to Kerala it's a narrow margin whether you are seeing 33 53 whether you are seeing 42 45 whatever the margin of difference really is it's not a big margin but no surprises >> like what you said is very correct fact you know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every exit poll says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10-year-old rule by the LDF and BIVJ you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George, Mr. George, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led URF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> yeah definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing real challenges >> right >> and and for BJP you know The take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but even after that, it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large. You will have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time of lot of ruckus within the party. You know, you you know, here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumby for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these books the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting ma in the back seat ma was too confident that she can tackle everything >> confident fierce confrontational going up right to Delhi that's going to be something to really watch out for but again as I said I don't think the margins are too big you know at the face of It may look at least a pull.
>> You never know. You never know. I was saying about this manta went up from 30 to 183.
So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. They can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Priy Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh w with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats it's a big big deal. Uh Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear poll of polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. are expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorugoi took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll this time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that Congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that God of go is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because It's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from kogoy but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how hima played uh felt pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorang go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in Assam.
>> The things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief.
>> All right we're totally out of time but thank you so much. This is going to be an interesting poll of polls. Uh it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times. And um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications. And if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Nirkji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Murliharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system is Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for WJ's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then Vij TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force. TVK's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think last happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal however other exit polls present a more conventional picture metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance on the other hand JVC offers a contrasting view projecting the AIADMKled victory highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters meanwhile TV's numbers very sharply in these surveys ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
12 98 to 120 seats as per access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through what is emerging ing increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh left backed axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Indiria Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muridharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah, that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nad people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two days per day to TVK I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads my India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote jalagen because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See uh I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20%. And even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party for a debut.
Yeah. Yeah. It's a big thing. Definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacuum in Tamil Nadu. People wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK. there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image. I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did. Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews he has not done any media interactions he has only done speeches at public rallies huge huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they are portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number. We'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established, you know, she joined EDMK.
So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you know like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamala Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I like this I'm I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me and Mr. George at this point will try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well.
Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF, but you know, VJ's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one. We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 33 53, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin, but no surprises.
I hope what you said is very correct.
You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know in the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10-year-old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George, Mr. Judge, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress UF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> yeah definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left has only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know The take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people you maybe see four seats is not a big It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground.
It did manage to get one seat earlier.
Uh but they even after that it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb BJP has done that.
BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots. The granular structure, the anti-inccumbmany, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together. Now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi.
>> That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> No, no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Priy Priya Dashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDSK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Asam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorapugo took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late. If you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Sam you You have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh felt pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into it >> no that was not impacting at all and neither the Gorov goi Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter >> it did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that schemes for the women, the women voters and the young generation voters, they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief.
>> All right, we're totally out of time but thank you so much. This is going to be an interesting poll of polls. It's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Murliharan, thank you so much. And Priti Priya, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system is Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for WJ's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly.
If it's true, then Vij TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth but this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged. We are trying to get you a poll of polls. The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JVC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK led victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through what is emerging ing increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the uh the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain this is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Nirmala Mukharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalibel who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well, Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashi should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Mliharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean, you know, largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge.
>> Yeah. Yeah. That's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nad people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands onience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by a spy India it doesn't yeah I mean what kind of I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut This would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See, I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20%. And even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party. Yeah. Yeah. It's a big thing. Definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things.
I think there is this you know there is always this um vacuum in Tamil Nadu.
people wanted some alternative for both the Draidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for alternative you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions.
He did TV wij has not done any interviews. He has not done any media interactions. He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into woods. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Laitha to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established. No, she joined EDMK. So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off. You know like there are many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off I like I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed.
>> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
I hope what you said is very correct.
You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10-year-old rule by the LDF and IGM you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George, Mr. George, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led URF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing real challenges >> right >> and and for BJP Maybe you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but they even after that it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mhar G. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on his channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything. confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi.
>> That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priyadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Prii, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Asam possibly in the lead, we'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear. Polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorokugo took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late. If you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Assam you So you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into it No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorav Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bhuya Sharma's allegedly false passport links nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter >> it did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sam >> things that was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were as I always say always take these with a pinch of salt we've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not but nonetheless very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes thank you so much for joining us thank you George Khalil thank you so much Kavita Muriharan thank you so much and Prii Priya thank you so much a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system as Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wages TVK. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then Vij TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in also. You know it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa poll goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK led victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear.
Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well. We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging the average remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Nirmala Mharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well, Kavita Muriharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Murliharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean you know largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls but you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge >> yeah that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who've covered Tamil Nadu journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads fine India yeah it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of uh I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so It it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newb party for a debut. Yeah.
Yeah. It's a big thing definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK. there's one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image. I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did. Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews he has not done any media interactions he has only done speeches at public rallies huge huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they portrayed many would have said and that's been the narrative Vijay is a novice he may he may not convert his fan following into votes but again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground >> yes no no no actor after MGR I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jaya joined a party that was already established you know she joined EDMK so I will not add Jay Leita to that list but no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you There were many people who tried. Vijay Gan was the last person.
Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu. That that's what I would describe it as. Something has >> I think that's an important line.
Something has changed in Tamil Nad.
That's a very interesting point. Let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF, but you know, Vij's emergence if at all.
However, it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad.
That's one. We'll come to that in a bit.
But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 33 53, whether you are seeing 42 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin.
But no surprises.
And I hope what you said is very correct. You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10year-old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George, Mr. Josh, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the congress urf which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> yeah definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know The take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but they even after that it was it was out a duck. Very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijayan is on his third term.
Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large.
You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life. Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs his time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbancy for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi for everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong >> now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots. The granular structure, the anti-inccumbmany, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together. Now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> no you never know. I was saying about this manta went up from 30 to 18. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead, we'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorugoy took the lead of APC, he became the president, he became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late. If you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from From the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Asam you So you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into it.
So that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorango Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another the person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in Asam >> things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Muriharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for WJ's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then VJ TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and forth. But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged. We're trying to get you a poll of polls. The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrant.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like wij almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think last happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK led victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through what is emerging ing increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain this is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Carolum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congress front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Indallaya Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Muriharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priya should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muridharan at this point Kavitta um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah. That's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nadu. People who've covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two days per TV.
I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads India. It doesn't Yeah. I mean what kind of uh I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> Bis would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a new B party for a debutant yeah yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image. I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did. Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews he has not done any media interactions he has only done speeches at public rallies huge huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed many would have said and that's been the narrative Vijay is a novice he may he may not convert his fan following into votes but again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground >> yes no no no actor after MGR I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jaya joined a party that was already established you know she joined EDMK so I will not add Jay Leita to that list but no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you You know like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it. So if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me get in Mr. George at this point we'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF, but you know, Vij's emergence, if at all, however it does happen, it's going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin, but no surprises.
I have what you said is very correct.
You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10year-old rule by the LDF and PRG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George Mr. George let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive but here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala.
The headline is going to be two. It's not going to be the you know the congress lef one which of course will be a headline itself but the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second we really don't know these are poll of polls you know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? You know, some of them even giving four seats. If that happens also, it's a big deal.
>> Yeah, definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India. The whole of India, you know, after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left us only hope was in Kerala.
Right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenges >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but they even after that it was it was out a duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another Sorry.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijayan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hamilton Vishna Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneeded seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year so that is the reason Lakshmi bhar and kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on and the third thing is that ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumb >> BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these boots, the granular structure, the anti-inccumby, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything. confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi.
That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least.
>> You never know. You never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorakoy took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. his time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that Congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that God of go is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just in just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because It's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorang go Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. It did not it did not resonate with people and voters in Asam.
>> The things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief.
>> All right we're totally out of time but thank you so much. This is going to be an interesting poll of polls. Uh it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times. And um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications. And if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Nirkji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Murliharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system is Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for Wij's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then VijvK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force. TV case performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think last that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal however other exit polls present a more conventional picture Mrice projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance on the other hand JVC offers a contrasting view projecting the AIA DMKled victory highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters meanwhile TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats. As for Access My India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout, the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating, the high stakes remain very very clear. Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well.
We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u uh the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh left backed axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Indiria Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muridharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah, that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J party TV I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads my India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote jalan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a new B party for debut. Yeah.
Yeah. It's a big thing definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK. there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interaction He did TV wij has not done any interviews.
He has not done any media interactions.
He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Lalitha joined a party that was already established. No, she joined EDMK. So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you know like there were many people who tried Vijay Gandh was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me and Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well.
Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one. We'll come to that in a bit but sticking to Kerala it's a narrow margin whether you are seeing 33 53 whether you are seeing 42 45 whatever the margin of difference really is. Not a big margin but no surprises.
>> What you said is very correct. You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know in the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10-year-old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George Mr. Judge let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led UF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and left has only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know The take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people you maybe see four seats is not a big It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground.
It did manage to get one seat earlier.
Uh but they even after that it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she's facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijayan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb BJP has done that.
BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these books the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting ma in the back seat ma was too confident that she can tackle everything >> confident fierce confrontational going up right to Delhi that's going to be something to really watch out for but again as I said I don't think the margins are too big you know at the face of It may look at least the >> no you never know I was saying about this manta went up from 30 to 183 so that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP so for BJP in the past in West Bengal so you you never know now they are 70 they can cross 200 you never know >> true sir I'm totally out of time I need to go to Mr. uh Priti Priya Dashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh w with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats it's a big big deal. Uh Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see. Sorry uh West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear pol of polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. uh expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorakugoi took the lead of APCC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll this time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right I just want to ask you one quick question because It's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how hima played uh felt pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Goravoy Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a >> sed was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Mukhar G thank you George Khalil thank you so much Kavita Murlih Dharan thank you so much and Priti Priya thank you so much a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wages TVK the exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly if it's true then Vij TV will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance.
This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrant.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while People's Pulse and Pakqu also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK le victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
12 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through what is emerging ing increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the uh the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Indir Mallaya Mukharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well, Kavita Muridharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and uh Priti Priyadashi should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muriharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean, you know, largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving Vij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge.
>> Yeah. Yeah. That's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands onience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads my India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut This would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See, I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party for a debut.
Yeah. Yeah. It's a big thing. Definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things. I think there is this you know there is always this um vacuum in Tamil Nadu. people wanted some alternative for both the Draidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for alternative you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions.
He did TVK Vijay has not done any interviews. He has not done any media interactions. He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Laitha to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established. No, she joined EDMK. So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you know like there are many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me and Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well.
Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, VJ's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one. We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
>> What you said is very correct. You know, there is no surprise or it was expected, you know, the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala.
Keralum you know everybody every export says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10 year old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters no they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear the youngsters want a change >> you know Mr. George Mr. Josh, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led UF1 which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know. These are poll of polls. You know, voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong. But if at all the UDF is to win, the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talked is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal.
Yeah, definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India. the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left has only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be a major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but they even after that it It was it was out a duck. Very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large. You will have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mhar G. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbency for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
>> Confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> no you never know. I was saying about this ma went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. You you never know. Now they are 70 they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priyadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri, you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDSK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorokugoy took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what it has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and right I just want to ask you one quick question because It's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from koi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorav Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Ba Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another the person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Muri Dharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priya, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system as Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wages TVK. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly.
If it's true, then VJS TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth but this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged. We are trying to get you a poll of polls. The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Prapole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK led victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear.
Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well. We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain this is not a very big margin this is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Mallayala Mharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Muriharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and uh Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Murliharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls but you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge >> yeah that's astonishing because I'll tell you niha what's happening in tamar people who've covered tamar journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands-on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J party TV I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads India yeah it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newb party for a debut in yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image. I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did. Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews he has not done any media interactions he has only done speeches at public rallies huge huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they portrayed many would have said and that's been the narrative Vijay is a novice he may he may not convert his fan following into votes but again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground >> yes no no no actor after MGR I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jaya joined a party that was already established you know she joined EDMK so I will not add Jay Leita to that list but no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me get in Mr. George at this point we'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF, but you know Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one. We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin, but no surprises.
What you said is very correct. You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10year-old rule by the LDF and IBJ you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%.
That means the trend is very clear. The youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George, Mr. George, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the congress urf which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> yeah definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left what only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know The take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but they even after that it was it was out a duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijayan is on his third term.
Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large.
You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life. Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi band and punasi and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls. So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbancy for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on his channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what they could cover all these boots the granular structure the anti-inccumbmany Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
>> Confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> no you never know. I was saying about this ma went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. You you never know. Now they are 70 they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prii Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um Miss Pri, you know from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorokugo took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just in just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Assam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what him biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorangoy Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in Asam things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Muriharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wages TVK. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then Vij TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth but this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged. We are trying to get you a poll of polls. The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the roule front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa poll goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK led victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters.
Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear.
Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well. We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the uh the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain this is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP. I'm being joined at this point by Nirmala Mukharji who's a senior journalist, George Khalibel who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well, Kavita Muridharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Mliharan at this point. Kavita um how would you look at this? I mean, you know, largely it's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving Vijay quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge.
>> Yeah. Yes. It's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to to J party I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads my India it doesn't yeah it I mean what kind of I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number what kind of parameters they had so it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening I can understand >> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut This would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See, I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a newbie party. Yeah. Yeah. It's a big thing. Definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things.
I think there is this you know there is always this um vacuum in Tamil Nadu.
people wanted some alternative for both the Dravidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for alternative you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of um of of media interactions. He did TV wij has not done any interviews. He has not done any media interactions. He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they are portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into Woods. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Lea to it because Jay Leita joined a party that was already established, you know, she joined EDMK.
So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MDR was able to pull this off you know like there are many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I like I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me get in Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well. Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one.
We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
>> I hope what you said is very correct.
You know, there is no surprise or it was expected, you know, the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala. Keralum you know everybody every export says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10-year-old rule by the LDF and BJ you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you can check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear want a change >> you know Mr. George Mr. judge let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led UDF1 which of course will be a headline itself but the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know. These are poll of polls. You know, voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong. But if at all the UDF is to win, the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP Maybe you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly >> that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but even after that, it was it was out at duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term.
Pinay Vijan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large. You will have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things. And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bandar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharj some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbency for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi for everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots. The granular structure, the anti-inccumbmany, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together. Now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least the >> No, no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Priyadashi who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead, we'll have to see. Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorokugoy took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. This time from the forefront. It was very late. If you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that god of google is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and right I just want to ask you one quick question because it's important for Assam you So you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what him biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into it.
So that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Goravoy Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Ba Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sense >> things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Muriharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system as Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for Wij's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singer's largest force in the 234 member assembly.
If it's true, then VJ TVK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and forth. But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged. We are trying to get you a poll of polls. The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrant.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like wij almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think last that's happened at this level would be possibly Arvin Kjal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling fling it well above the halfway mark. Praa poll goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMK led victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters.
Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as for access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear.
Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well. We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging. The averages remain this is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge. Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Carolum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Indirala Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalibil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Muriharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priyadashni should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muridharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving wij quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah, that's astonishing because I'll tell you Niha what's happening in Tamil Nadu people who've covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands on experience they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two days per TV I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by ads India it doesn't yeah I mean what kind of I I'm I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen >> you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote janiagan because that would have still been a decent debut.
>> This would be unprecedented in Tamil politics.
>> Yes. See I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20% and even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a new B party for a debut in yeah it's a big thing definitely it's a big thing so that I mean couple of things I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu people wanted some alternative for both the Dvidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image. I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did. Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kamita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interactions he did TV wij has not done any interviews he has not done any media interactions he has only done speeches at public rallies huge huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they portrayed many would have said and that's been the narrative Vijay is a novice he may he may not convert his fan following into votes but again just coming back to >> largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving him a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it >> nonetheless even if the other numbers are to be seen anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats some giving 18 to 20 seats even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground >> yes no no no actor after MGR I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jaya joined a party that was already established you know she joined EDMK so I will not add Jay Leita to that list but no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you like there were many people who tried Vijay Gan was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me get in Mr. George at this point we'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, Vij's emergence if at all however it does happen is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad that's one. We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 33 53, whether you are seeing 42 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin.
But no surprises.
And I hope what you said is very correct. You know there is no surprise or it was expected you know the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala Keralum you know everybody every ex says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10year-old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF and 37 only for uh LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters now they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear.
Youngsters want a change.
>> You know Mr. George, Mr. George, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first- time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the congress urf which of course will be a headline itself. But the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know these are poll of polls. You know voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong but if at all the UDF is to win the two big takeaways that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that? you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal >> yeah definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know The take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people maybe see four seats is not a big It's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats, three seats, even two seats. It's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground. It did manage to get one seat earlier. Uh but they even after that it was it was out a duck very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijayan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hima Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-incumbency factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things.
And the projects that she had worked out they have very short life. Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi bhar and punasi and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know, you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumb because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new ter and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi but everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots. Now what >> they could cover all these boots. The granular structure, the anti-inccumbmany, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together. Now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least a >> no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priya Dashni who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead. We'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorugo took the lead of APC, he became the president. He became the main person to lead the entire poll. his time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that Congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that God of go is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just in just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right I just want to ask you one quick question because It's important for Assam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswar sharma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how himant played uh fell pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's not into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Gorang go Pakistan link nor the Uniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking another person is also doing the counter. It did not it did not resonate with people and voters in Asam.
>> Things that impacted was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that the schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief.
>> All right we're totally out of time but thank you so much. This is going to be an interesting poll of polls. Uh it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times. And um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications. And if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Nla Mukharji, thank you. George Khalil, thank you so much. Kavita Murliharan, thank you so much. And Prrii Priyadni, thank you so much. A political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two-party system as Access My India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for Wij's TV. The exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly. If it's true, then VijvK will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force. TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics. And no, this is not only about Tamil Nad politics. If this does happen, it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party.
Something that's not happened for a very long time. I think last that happens at this level would be possibly Arvin with Kjal. However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark.
Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK Alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMKled victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well, 98 to 120 seats as for Access My India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout, the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating. The high stakes remain very very clear. Let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well.
We will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details. Just rushing you through what is emerging increasingly at this point. Well, when it comes to Bengal, TMC seems to be at around 142 of an average of poll of polls while the BJP is around 145 across. In fact, if you look at the numbers that are on your screen, it's around 133 for TMC plus for BJP at around 153 depending upon the u the poll of polls that are coming in depending upon the exit polls that are emerging.
The averages remain. This is not a very big margin. This is still not very big margin but BJP really getting an edge.
Chanika is supposed to uh give in the polls shortly as well in few hours from now. So all of these becoming very critical. You have the other states as well. Keralum largely you getting a lead for the UDF even though it is u you know a a narrow margin of sorts. You have 59 for the LDF that's the left um uh uh leftbacked axis and you have the UDF which is the Congressled front at around 77. Again not a very big margin but nonetheless at 77 which is being given for this. uh Assam you have almost all exit polls indicating a big lead for BJP I'm being joined at this point by Indiria Mukharji who's a senior journalist George Khalil who's a senior journalist from Kerala as well Kavita Murliharan a senior journalist from Tamil Nad and U Priti Priya should be joining us shortly but you know let's just go right now straight to Kavita Muridharan at this point Kavita um how would you look at this I mean you know largely It's it I it's it's indicating a win for the DMK >> largely if you look at the averages of the poll of polls.
>> But you have access which is you know it has its own track record of whatever it is giving Vijay quite a thumping seats that's going to be huge. Yeah, that's astonishing because I'll tell you how what's happening in Tamil Nadu, people who covered Tamil journalists who write in Tamil couple of them have done surveys in Tamil and you know hands they've got for several decades and they give only between zero to five to two days per day.
I'm completely flabbergasted by the number given by Ads Spy India. It doesn't Yeah, it I mean what kind of I I'm really curious how did they arrive at this number? What kind of parameters they had? So it it totally beats me but I don't think this is happening. I can understand.
>> I mean if it does happen Kavita if it does happen you know if if Vijay would even get say five seats or 10 seats or 15 seats which was you know 15% of votes or whatsoever he still would be you know the cap quote unquote jalani again because that would have still been a decent debut this >> would be unprecedented in Tamilad politics.
Yes. See, I'm expecting Vijay to get anywhere between 15 to 20% not beyond 20%. And even I mean even 15 to 20% for Vijay is a major thing >> for for a new B party for a debut. Yeah.
Yeah. It's a big thing. Definitely it's a big thing. So that I mean couple of things. I think there is this you know there is always this um vacum in Tamil Nadu. People wanted some alternative for both the Draidian parties for the DMK and the DMK ADMK. there is one section of people that is always looking for all the people you know >> and Vijay fits into this image I mean I at one point it's very also I don't know Vijay didn't do the kind of work that MGR did Vijay is not as as experienced and you can see through >> again Kavita this is this is this is the thing you know when MGR came in he came in with experience he came in with not being shy of interacting of making his stand public of of media interaction He did TV wij has not done any interviews.
He has not done any media interactions.
He has only done speeches at public rallies. Huge difference between MGR and Vijay in their standards and the way they have portrayed.
>> Many would have said and that's been the narrative. Vijay is a novice. He may he may not convert his fan following into votes. But again just coming back to largely what these big poll of polls have been access of course giving them a sweeping sweeping number we'll have to see how much of that really sticks when it comes to the final of it.
Nonetheless, even if the other numbers are to be seen, anywhere between 10 to 15 to 20 seats, some giving 18 to 20 seats, even those are going to be huge considering many just wrote off Vijay despite his popularity on the ground.
>> Yes. No, no actor after MGR. I wouldn't add Jay Leita to it because Jay Lalitha joined a party that was already established. No, she joined EDMK. So, I will not add Jay Leita to that list. But no uh act actor after MGR was able to pull this off you know like there were many people who tried Vijay Gandh was the last person Kamla Hassan was the last person he came and he had a legacy of his own but he was not able to do it so if Vijay is pulling it off I am like I I'm very surprised but something has changed in Tamil Nadu that that's what I would describe it as something has changed >> I think that's an important line something has changed in Tamil Nad that's a very interesting point let me and Mr. George at this point. We'll try and reconnect with Miss Kavita as well.
Mr. George, you're closely watching the LDF and the UDF. But you know, Vij's emergence if at all, however it does happen, is going to change the political landscape and it's not going to be only for Tamil Nad. That's one. We'll come to that in a bit. But sticking to Kerala, it's a narrow margin. Whether you are seeing 3353, whether you are seeing 42, 45, whatever the margin of difference really is, it's not a big margin but no surprises.
What you said is very correct. You know, there is no surprise or it was expected, you know, the exit poll results are almost the same in in Assam and Kerala.
Kam you know everybody every export says that it will UDF will coming back to the power that means ending the 10 year old rule by the LDF and IG you know the funny thing is that uh majority of the new voters huge majority uh there are some uh exit poll says that uh the new voters under 19 majority 51% voted for UDF 37 only for LDF that is a 12% minus from last elections and from when you check with the below 30 youngsters no they want a change there LDF got LDF lost almost 18% and they got only 33 but UDF came with 54%. That means the trend is very clear want a change >> you know Mr. George Mr. Judge, let me interrupt you at this point. What you're saying is very interesting because the youth and the first first time voters have really been decisive. But here's the angle for whatever happens in Kerala. The headline is going to be two.
It's not going to be the you know the Congress led UF which of course will be a headline itself but the big takeaways that everybody is likely to talk about is one the left being wiped out. Kerala is the bastion that is really holding on to it got a historic two but it was coming that it would not be able to get a second. We really don't know. These are poll of polls. You know, voters have their own way and many times these poll of polls have been proved wrong. But if at all the UDF is to win, the two big takeaway is that everybody will be talk is about the left and is about the inroads of BJP. How do you really see that you know some of them even giving four seats if that happens also it's a big deal.
Definitely because Kerala Keralam was the only left bastion left in in India.
the whole of India you know after the route in West Bengal and Tribura left only hope was in Kerala >> right >> now this time they they are facing a real challenge >> right >> and and for BJP you know the take the takeaway is something big the huge if they make three to 10 seats or three to six seats or it can be zero also but if they find at least two or three seats in Kerala Kerala assembly that will be a big big beginning for BJP like in West Bengal or in other states you know >> and it's going to be major for many people you maybe see four seats is not a big it's it's going to be huge to be able to win four seats three seats even two seats it's going to be a big deal for uh BJP in Kerala that's been able that's been trying to break ground it did manage to get one seat earlier uh but even after that it It was it was out a duck. Very quickly to you Nirmala Mukharji quite contrasting to what the challenge for BJP in Kerala is West Bengal seems to be another story.
>> You see Ma is a little unlucky that she is facing her fourth term. Pinay Vijayan is on his third term. Stalin on his second and Hamilton Visha Sharma is on his second. So Ma's anti-inccumbancy factor is quite large. You'll have to accept it. People do get stalled and hackneed seeing the same face and same things and the projects that she had worked out they have very short life.
Usually these freebies they don't work more than 6 months or one year. So that is the reason Lakshmi Bhar and Kasri and all these things people somehow are not satisfied in what is going on. And the third thing is that Ma made a huge mistake when she dropped 74 of her sitting MLAs this time uh in the polls.
So that itself created a lot of lot of ruckus within the party.
>> You know you you know here's where the trick is Mukharji. Some may say that is the way to beat anti-inccumbenty because BJP has done that. BJP has successfully done that has you know removed its multiple time MPs MLAs CMS and has brought in new faces brought in the new term and completely thwarted anti um you know the anti-inccumbenty for that matter >> no BJP I'll tell you BJP I have always said on your channel BJP is a party in waiting BJP waits >> they waited in Orisa they waited in Delhi for everywhere they wait >> and they have been waiting in Kerala for a very long time and acting and working very strong on the ground >> in Bengal what we find today as the numbers I I don't know what the numbers will finally come out but now the TNC people only want that they are all proved wrong now now BJP I'll tell you BJP has a has a has a granular structure of working this is very typical with BJP only this granular structure is they could not even covered the boots in the last election.
>> Okay, >> there were about 78,000 boots. This time it is 80,000 boots.
>> Now what they could cover all these boots, the granular structure, the anti-inccumbmany, Hindu consolidation and all taken together and sir all effect together now that is putting Ma in the back seat. Ma was too confident that she can tackle everything.
confident, fierce, confrontational going up right to Delhi. That's going to be something to really watch out for. But again, as I said, I don't think the margins are too big. You know, at the face of it may look at least a >> no, you never know. I was saying about this MA went up from 30 to 183. So that was a six times jump >> and so for BJP. So for BJP in the past in West Bengal. So you you never know.
>> Now they are 70. they can cross 200. You never know.
>> True. Sir, I'm totally out of time. I need to go to Mr. Prriiti Priya who's been very patiently waiting. Thank you so much. Um, Miss Pri, you know, from from the story of what's unfolding in Tamil Nad where BJP really may not really have a say with its uh with the AIDMK as it seems at this point. Kerala again, even if it manages a couple of seats, it's a big big deal. Uh, Assam possibly in the lead, we'll have to see.
Sorry. Uh, West Bengal possibly in the lead. Assam quite clear polar polls giving a thumping lead for BJP. Uh, expected.
>> Exactly. But yeah, we have to see that uh this entire opposition this time when Gorakugoi took the lead of APC, he became the president, he became the main person to lead the entire poll this time from the forefront. It was very late if you remember it was just uh one not even one year ago that he was given the presidentship of APCC and even around that entire conversation entire decision of bringing him as the president of Assam Pradesh Congress committee a lot of people inside the party revolted and a lot of senior people were also we have seen that they shifted to BJP and they were provided a ticket from the BJP which also has done a great damage to the party but yeah I have to mention that I don't think from the perspective from the ground report what has been seen I don't think that Congress or alliance opposition alliance as a whole this time was actually looking for a government change what we have seen is that God of go is trying to build a new troop of his because the previous troop that he had we have seen that there are allegations that they were working as agents for BJP and just immed just before the election they shifted to BJP actually right and >> right I just want to ask you one quick question because It's important for Asam you know you have had a lot of issues uh right from infiltrators sir and so on and so forth but there's one thing that played out also was the passport the fake passport politics as it were starting with what himant biswa sarma accused goi of to the counter from goi but do you think the way goi played his cards with respect to how hima played uh felt pretty badly uh considering how the court also responded talking about dragging a woman who's already into politics also into No, that was not impacting at all.
Neither the Goravoy Pakistan link nor the Reiniki Bya Sharma's allegedly false passport links. Nothing actually impacted the voters because they accepted it as we can say blame game of politics and somehow one one person attacking and another person is also doing the counter. did not it did not resonate with people and voters in a sed was employment generation by the government NDA also along with that schemes for the women the women voters and the young generation voters they have impacted and definitely this time vote sharing of the opposition is going to increase but yeah definitely not that much to make a government chief >> all right we're totally out of time but thank you so much this is going to be an interesting poll of polls u it's going to be a very interesting fourth May as it were. As I always say, always take these with a pinch of salt. We've had cake on our face many times and um we'll have to see whether it happens again or not. But nonetheless, very interesting indications and if if it's if what's expected is likely to happen then the entire politics of not just that state but uh states and the country the opposition play uh the centers play all of it changes the dynamics changes.
Thank you so much for joining us. Mukhar G thank you George Khalil thank you so much Kavita Murliharan thank you so much and Priti Priya Darashani thank you so much a political debut shaking Tamil Nad's two party system is access my India exit poll hints at a generational shift projecting a massive surge for wij's TV the exit poll predicts the party could emerge as the singest largest force in the 234 member assembly if it's true then Vij TV will have the most striking poll debut results. If this holds, it signals a major disruption in the state's traditional two-party dominance. This projection puts the ruling DMK alliance in a tight spot with Access My India estimating it at 92 to 110 seats while the AIA DMK is projected to lag behind with just 22 to 32 seats.
Interesting figures coming in. Also, you know, it's important to give the disclaimer at this point. Ladies and gentlemen, votes are votes. The results will always be known only and fourth.
But this is a sense that we are getting from the exit polls that have emerged.
We're trying to get you a poll of polls.
The numbers point to a possible hung assembly and a significant breakthrough for a relatively new political entrance.
The rise of TVK marks a shift in voter sentiment with the party rapidly gaining traction across constituencies. from a newcomer to a potential kingmaker or even the leading force TV's performance could redefine Tamil Nad politics and no this is not only about Tamil Nad politics if this does happen it changes the dynamics of India's politics because you would have somebody uh like Vijay almost like a mainstream party something that's not happened for a very long time I think lust that's happens at this level would be possibly Arvin Kijal However, other exit polls present a more conventional picture. Metric projects a clear majority for the DMK alliance with 122 to 132 seats while people's pulse and P mark also indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling front placing it well above the halfway mark. Praa pole goes even further predicting a landslide for the DMK alliance. On the other hand, JBC offers a contrasting view, projecting the AIADMKled victory, highlighting the wide divergence across pollsters. Meanwhile, TVK's numbers very sharply in these surveys, ranging from a modest presence to a significant challenger underlying the uncertaintity surrounding its actual impact.
Well 98 to 120 seats as per access my India for TVK with over 84% voter turnout the highest in decades and more than 5.7 cr voters participating the high stakes remain very very clear let's also just very quickly give you a sense of how the poll of polls for other states are as well we will be looking into them as well and we'll try to give you more details just rushing you through
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