The Beginning of the End for Putin?

Añadido: 2026-05-18

[00:00:01]From Odessa on the shores of the Black Sea as you can see you better view of the fountain and the opera house here in Odessa. It is a beautiful day.

[00:00:10]It's first time I've actually done any sort of filming in a t-shirt in 2026 such as the weather here now. We are finally in summer and while the sun shines here on Odessa in Ukraine metaphorically speaking is definitely not shining on Vladimir Putin the Russian dictator as 2026 is proving to be the year that probably when this is all said and done will be the beginning of the end of for him and probably for this phase of the Russo-Ukrainian war. So, what has been changing? Well, we've seen the pressure that has been building up over the last few years since his fateful decision to launch the extended invasion of Ukraine back in 2022. We've seen all that start to catch up with him. I've said it, it's like my mantra, three M's, manpower, money, material.

[00:01:07]They hit a critical juncture back in the second half of 2025 as I've been saying on this channel, my other channel since yeah, probably late 2023 it was going to become a crunch time in 2025 because they have figured out a system for the manpower but the way to do that was to continuously incentivize Russian society up with provide predominantly with money just offering such high salaries. However, the number of Russians or people who are signing up signing up for the Russian armed forces to fight in against Ukraine has now reached a point where they recruit less soldiers than they lose on the battlefield. We actually had earlier this week even the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio say this administration has not been particularly favorable to Ukraine in this war.

[00:02:01]That Russians are losing five times the number of soldiers per month than Ukraine. So, at least that's at the moment. Previous estimates were basically cuz neither side is publishing the official figures that are reliable.

[00:02:19]About 2.5 to 1.

[00:02:22]Russian losses than 2.5 times the size of Ukraine losses. That also makes sense if you look at it from uh classical offensive versus defensive posture.

[00:02:32]Normally, you'd expect to see ceteris paribus 3:1 losses. So, that is a massive problem if you are making such little progress on the battlefield. So, these military problems have now It's all interconnected with material, manpower, and money. Obviously, along with strategy and tactical nous. But, on the front lines, Russia is now making slower and slower progress. Still making progress technically, but previously, the estimate for Russia to actually seize physical control of the Donbas region was that they would have to fight on for probably another 2 and 1/2 to 5 years. So, we'll say it was 3 years, right? We give them benefit of the doubt. So, we'll say by the beginning of 2029, they would have to finally seize control of that. Now, the estimates are that basically there's no point in making estimate cuz it's progress is just too slow.

[00:03:33]I mean, basically, they're never going to make it. Or at least we can't see, you know, it'll be well over a decade at the current rate. So, they're losing these soldiers more than they can recruit per month.

[00:03:45]And they are not making progress towards any strategic goal. They're They're They're anywhere near in of five soldiers for every one Ukrainian, that means that in a war of attrition, even though Russia is way bigger, has more resources still, in terms of manpower in particular, five to one is around the critical point where attrition makes sense from the Ukrainian point of view. There is no pathway, long-term pathway for Russia at the current state of play to win here if it continues in the same vein. The economy, Russian economy in tatters, basically. They are I've been in a recession in effect since second half of last year. Their official figures are not going to admit that yet, but that is the reality. They have managed to re-stimulate the economy since 2022 to I'll say up until 2025 with a war economy, basically spending lots of money on the military. The problem is that you don't get a return on investment on building a tank if it just goes to Ukraine and gets blown up by some Ukrainians with an NLAW or with and maybe a drone these days. That is a net loss. It might look great on the balance sheet, but when it's gone without producing anything of tangible value, then you basically just wasted your resource. Now that is caught up in late 2025. They have high interest rates, high inflation, and basically in a contracting economy.

[00:05:14]So, that again, and labor costs are very high also in Russia. So, the They stage are they going to import lots of labor to try and drive that down, bringing in lots of immigrants from other countries. They have started to do that. Again, that will cause probably some internal friction within Russia itself, within the Russian Federation.

[00:05:31]They're going to be bringing people from from primarily probably from the Indian subcontinent or maybe from Asia or somewhere. So, the manpower issue now at a critical juncture where they they they they could solve it by going for another mobilization. However, Vladimir Putin does not have a clear path to victory and it's going to be a very hard sell to the middle classes in Moscow and St. Petersburg if they go for another general mobilization. It may be possible. He has increased more restrictions on the ability to communicate in in side even Moscow with the internet and also social media platforms used for messaging and communication. However, there have been a lot of pushback against them on that in Russia not from people who are politically active, just people who do business, influencers.

[00:06:17]Because they don't want to see their ability to make money disappear.

[00:06:21]So, he is going to face uh increasing unpopularity if he does that. He may have to still go for that extreme option because it was a bit of a a problem when he did it originally back in the autumn of 2022. 1 million Russian men actually left the country. Maybe some of them come back again. But, would expect to see huge exodus if they can still get out. I guess he can close the borders, but basically you can see he's like on on it's like a vicious circle. They ask you to do more things that repress population order and keep them going along with it. He doesn't have a clear path to victory at this point.

[00:06:54]His economy is in trouble. So, that means there's less money going to be sloshing around in the system to be stolen by people who have influence, especially uh businessmen. You have people who are making money with the war in Russia, but they are going to be in opposition to people who've been losing money with the war in Ukraine. That's going to see probably different clans start to fight with each other again at risk of more destabilization. So, this is the beginning of the end uh with the current trajectory for Vladimir Putin. And that really he's not like he's going to just resign and go live out his days peacefully somewhere.

[00:07:30]That is very unlikely when you've been a dictator, ruthless dictator for over 20 Well, it must be over 25 years at this point. And a wanted indicted war criminal to boot, you're probably going to end up deceased pretty quickly afterwards. Been like Putin did when he was filming you to me.

[00:07:50]You know, when he he decided to bite down when he was filming you to me, he didn't last much of a longer. So, that is what we see in terms of the material.

[00:07:57]The war has changed quite a bit. You don't see as many armored vehicles used.

[00:08:01]You don't see as much artillery as we see more and more drone warfare. It's not the only thing been been used, but there has been developments especially from the Ukrainians with their interceptor drones. They now are able to take a well over 90% off kamikaze drones Russia then you know, ramps up the the production even more of those. They're now putting faster engines on them, so it's a continuous battle uh to try and get ahead with those new munitions.

[00:08:26]Very soon, probably in around a year if this war goes on that long in 2027, I think this could be something that really breaks the back of Russia.

[00:08:35]It is possible that Ukraine's going to have an alternative to those Patriot interceptors. The ones that take out the the bigger rockets that come that without US Patriot which now with the what's been happening in the Middle East, a lot of those inventories have been used rather quickly and indiscriminately by the Gulf states and by US and by Israel.

[00:08:56]If Ukraine can develop that, then that then negates the big advantage that Russia has in terms of another fire these kind of ballistic missiles without much issue at Ukraine. Ukraine struggles to take them down in the same with the same effectiveness as they can tackle the drones. If we get up to that, then this takes out a lot of the long-range capability of Russia.

[00:09:18]Ukraine on the other hand has taken a lot of Russian air defense. You can see they can basically have free reign to bomb in Russia very, very deep. I actually saw the leader of the AFD whose party basically is is pro-Russian, right? This is the way it leans in Germany. She was complaining it was so risky that those Ukrainians were poking the bear. Who says poking the bear in 2026? She looks like a complete Muppet saying this dumb analogy about poking a bear.

[00:09:42]As if the bear is sleeping there peacefully. It's an aggressive imperialistic state that picked a rather dumb fight. And now it's getting it's us increasingly whooped by the I guess we I don't really even want to say David and Goliath because that's they're not really the way in terms of the positions of power at the moment. We have definitely the state defending itself, Ukraine, which is able to strike deeper and deeper into Russia, affect our economy by blowing up other resource exports and production, and increasingly hit their ability to produce weapons as again Ukraine expands its potential to strike deeper and deeper into Russia.

[00:10:22]Russia has this big advantage being enormous, biggest country geographically, on the planet. However, it's it's it's really expensive and difficult to protect all of that territory, and we're seeing that and now the Ukrainians have figured it out how to suppress those air defenses and their their capabilities to go deeper and deeper into Russia. Eventually, we're going to see them basically able to, if the war goes on long enough, hit anywhere in Russia, probably, and be better able to defend itself. That is the general trend.

[00:10:52]Of course, there can be technological breakthroughs. I mentioned the Russians are developing faster uh kamikaze drones, but the the ability to innovate also seems to be on the Ukrainian side.

[00:11:03]They have the guarantee of money from the European Union now going for at least 2 years.

[00:11:08]Politically, Putin just lost a big European ally in Viktor Orbán. Uh basically, he was Moscow's man in the European Union. That is gone.

[00:11:19]Uh looking this year in terms of the other elections coming up, maybe there might be one in Britain that might end up slightly more favorable to Putin, but even Nigel Farage seems to be abandoning uh as quick as he can any association of thinking Putin is good or anything. I mean it's not sure that it's going to be number one there's going to be an election UK or that actually the Reform Party would win. That's not for for certain at this juncture.

[00:11:43]There are the US midterm elections. The way that is trending also doesn't really bode anything for Vladimir Putin. If the Democrats take back both the houses, they've actually been trying to get a bill through Congress that would start US aid again back to Ukraine. Now, they probably don't have enough votes at the moment in the Senate. It looks like they have them in the in the House of Representatives. If the Senate becomes majority Democrat or just becomes a little bit more Democrat and less MAGA in after November, I guess they wouldn't be seated until I think the telephone rings January, right?

[00:12:21]They in 2027. Then possibly they will vote for a dinner bill to Donald Trump. He could veto it, but again that would be something that at that point he might actually be willing to do. So, looking at the the elections for the rest of your there doesn't seem to be anything now I'll promise for Vladimir Putin. In 2027, there are the French elections. Maybe he could get a more favorable French president to come to power as opposed to Macron.

[00:12:48]Possibly. His big thing big play would be to get the AFD the alternative of food Deutschland elected in Germany.

[00:12:57]But they don't have elections scheduled for a few years, so it would take uh some sort of politically speaking cataclysmic event in Germany to force an early election.

[00:13:05]They don't typically happen in Germany.

[00:13:07]So, he doesn't have great options coming up politically that he can point to and say, "Hey, everything's going to turn when this election happen." You know, maybe he might in Britain and France get slightly more favorable leaders, but I doubt that it would be a game-changer.

[00:13:25]He would also need to he basically to flip a lot or see the flipping of a lot of European governments. And the you know, with Viktor Orbán being removed from power through the ballot box, uh it was a bit of a crushing defeat for him in the elections just gone just happened in Hungary.

[00:13:44]He doesn't seem to have the same number of amount of support that maybe he had inside Europe in the past. So, we've seen especially after the May 9th debacle that was his supposed parade, which didn't have any hardware on Red Square, and we just had some North Korean troops marching there and a few foreign dignitaries. Still had the president of Belarus and Kazakhstan there, but still it was all less than the previous year.

[00:14:11]I'm actually questioning whether there's even going to be a parade in Moscow next year if this war is going on because other than it being just a group of soldiers and at that point even probably even less foreign dignitaries coming, they might you know, they might not want to hold it there. It's gotten so embarrassing for Vladimir Putin. It's supposed to be a big display of strength, but it just exposes his weakness. So, we've seen some kind of what I would interpret some feelers to see they can start negotiations with the Europeans, but again, his objective for now seems to be to find another way to get Ukraine to capitulate. We had the peace plans in inverted commas, which are effectively medium-to-long-term capitulation plans for Ukraine that were articulated by the Russian side and then US promoted back that was probably about four or five months ago at this point.

[00:15:07]That is a non-starter. Ukraine is not going to sign that. They're not going to voluntarily leave the Donbas region.

[00:15:12]There isn't any legitimate Ukrainian president is going to have any popular support for that or with the military or anyone, especially if the current assessment for Russia taking it militarily is basically never at this point. It's just too long in the future. It's more than the previous assessment of 3 years is now obsolete.

[00:15:34]So, at this current point that is not going to be possible.

[00:15:39]There's a lot of hope you have in my opinion that, you know, he's about to look for an off ramp, but he doesn't have an off at the moment because he cannot get a strategic victory and it looks like it after 4 years that the Ukrainians are going to agree to. And if he just stops the fighting without some ability to cause an escalation somewhere else, maybe by invading the Baltic states, then why would he do that? He's going to have all the soldiers coming home. He's going to have the elites are going to be upset. He's going to be in a huge problem in terms of cleaning onto power, which is his number one priority. And a people seem to be under the illusion that you get you stay a dictator in a pretty ruthless environment like the Kremlin by doing things for the people or something. No, you stay in that because you stay in that position of power because every day you wake up and you take the news in order to be still in power the next day. So, You know, yeah.

[00:16:39]I have a kid here who decided to go play with the microphone.

[00:16:43]Funny. So, he doesn't have those possibilities for now a way of stopping the war and staying in power in my opinion because he needs to be able to point to either some sort of strategic achievement like, "Hey, we have this agreement that's really good for us, but that's you know, if they just stop the fighting, that's not going to be what happens in the immediate aftermath. Or he stops the fighting and and quickly redeploys his troops to start fighting somewhere else, create some sort of ruse. The Belarussians are about to invade us or the Kazakhstani's are about to invade us and actually start another military operation. He thought it would obviously divert public attention, create a new enemy, and most importantly get those soldiers who might come back as veterans and organize to depose him, have them all fighting somewhere else for the glory of the the great emperor that he proclaims to to be. So, that is some of the things that are constraining him in terms of looking for an off-ramp and for the comes Oh, oh, oh.

[00:17:47]So, we tried to steal my second spring assistant.

[00:17:53]That was my second microphone there, but now it's been removed. So, there you go. See, this is live TV as they say.

[00:18:02]So, that is the conundrum that Vladimir Putin has. He started this folly. He really started folly back in 2014.

[00:18:10]But, he always wanted to take over all of Ukraine and reestablish the empire.

[00:18:15]There's a famous quote from Brzezinski that Russia without Ukraine can only be a regional power, can never be a global power. So, it can't be really an effective global empire, which has been constrained.

[00:18:29]And that is something that he's tried to reverse, but he's probably just accelerated the demise of the current Russian Federation because as their economy gets worse, as they deal with the repercussions of this trainwreck of innovation, there is a bigger risk in the long term, not in the short term, but in the long term, that the Russian borders will change because parts of it will start to secede. At least in the northern Caucasus, that would seem to be the very first place that will probably go that direction, places like Dagestan and Chechnya, somewhere like that, especially if the current leader there, Kadyrov, were to pass away, then there could be a succession crisis that then would turn into a secession crisis for the Russian Federation. So, overall, things look the opposite of the weather that we have in Odessa in the Kremlin. It all looks pretty bleak. That said, doesn't mean that there's some sort of coup d'état being plotted against Putin at this juncture. I just think the pressure has been mounting on him and he is in a weaker and weaker position. He will probably look to escalate the tension.

[00:19:34]Maybe go for another mobilization in Russia. That would be a high-risk strategy from him, but maybe he sees that he has little other option. Of course, he can you know, have more dramatic terrorist attacks against the Ukrainians and maybe threaten nuclear weapons or a nuclear strike or use a nuclear tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

[00:19:56]We don't know. Um there's been a lot of speculation that's what he threatened back in 2022 when the Biden administration was there and maybe Europeans weren't as determined to push back this Russian nation as they are right now. It's become clear and clearer that without really definitive and convincing US military deterrence against Russia in Europe because this current administration under Donald Trump has put that into question at the very least, that Europeans are less and less likely to want to concede to Russia.

[00:20:33]At least that's the way it seems to me than they were in 2022. It doesn't mean that it's impossible they will do that.

[00:20:37]We see that, you know, I just quoted the AFD leader talking about poking a bear again like a complete other idiot.

[00:20:44]Uh she should be nowhere near an executive position of power in such at such a crucial juncture if that's the way she thinks. This is was already dumb and stupid back in 2022, but if it's someone taking over thinking that, yeah, you need to stop the Ukrainians being aggressive towards uh an imperialistic revanchist Russia at this current juncture is just absolutely um idiotic from a European or German point of view, but you know, their state of policy basically from what I understand anyway is just basically to throw everybody under the Russian bus, the Russian tank to the east of them and start doing trade again with the Russian Federation. So, they don't believe in European solidarity. They want to sell it out. But, we'll see if they ever come to power in Germany or not.

[00:21:31]Hopefully not from Ukraine's point of view or for Europe's point of view in general. So, let me know your comments and questions down below. This is a live stream. It's pretty easy for me to do these obviously because just put on my camera here and we start going. If you have any questions about the situation on the ground here in Ukraine, if you're thinking of coming, I have my guide down below, my insider's guide to coming to Ukraine during this recent Ukraine war on top of all the logistical and geopolitical information, historic information. There you also have access to my hospitality guide to my favorite cafes, restaurants, bars, clubs in Odessa, Kyiv, Chernivtsi, Uzhhorod, and Lviv. They're the five cities that I have gone to since the 2022 invasion.

[00:22:22]So, I've been out drinking, eating, and enjoying the amazing Ukrainian hospitality. So, that will just save you a lot of time and you'll see my favorite places to go down there. It is in the description to this live stream.

[00:22:35]And yeah, later on this summer it is possible that I will go It's almost certain I'll go back to Kyiv. Maybe I'll also go to cities like Mykolaiv and Kharkiv at some point. We'll just have to see how all that plays out.

[00:22:47]And I have seen a little bit of renewed interest in visiting those parts of Ukraine as well from an investment point of view. So, that's a little bit of a change from the normal viewing here on the Geopolitical channel. So, Slava Ukraini to Lviv. Hello.

[00:23:05]Hello.

[00:23:08]You see, so that is the vibe here on the streets of Odessa on this Saturday afternoon.

[00:23:17]And yeah, was the weather this nice yesterday? I don't think so. I think this is the first day I really uh I also took I walked around in a t-shirt yesterday, so it's not quite the first day, but it is the second day. So, you see normal life goes on here in Ukraine. I have everybody out enjoying the beautiful weather.

[00:23:33]Out socializing. We do have curfew, just remind everybody from midnight until 5:00 a.m. in most of Ukraine. In the Zakarpatska Oblast, the Zakarpattia Oblast in the extreme west of Ukraine, there is no curfew. There isn't a major city there, but you could go to Uzhhorod or to Mukachevo. Those are the cities I've been to. I've also been to Berehove on the border with Hungary.

[00:23:55]It's a great vineyard I like.

[00:23:56]Uh however, in Lviv it is not as strict in terms of the curfew, so it is possible to do a little bit more socializing after midnight than you could say here in Odessa or in Kyiv.

[00:24:08]Definitely in a city like Kharkiv, which is closer to the front line well, to the Russian border actually, so not really the front lines per se.

[00:24:18]I see that Josh is watching it here.

[00:24:21]Hey Josh, how are you? Thanks.

[00:24:23]So, let me know if you have a question or a comment. That was basically my update on how bad things look for Vladimir Putin. There is an expression here in Ukraine that I've seen on social media, especially more the party scene, which is we will rave on Putin's grave.

[00:24:39]And uh yeah, it's going to be an almighty party here in Ukraine if that actually happens. Well, it will happen some stage, but if it happens sometime soon it will be seen as a stepping stone to the end of this Russo-Ukrainian War. I do talk about it in phases cuz we had a phase from 2014 when they invaded Crimea and also parts of the Donbas region and then you had still fighting going on from 2015 to 2022 which is less than this intense. You know, the second phase with this extended invasion from 2022 up until now or at least in mid-2026.

[00:25:19]So if we were to have some cessation of hostilities, then we'd probably have another phase. Like if it's a cessation of hostilities that doesn't deal with the root causes of the conflict to flip that Russian narrative, i.e. Russian imperial aggression and revanchism, then it would just simply be another period in which both sides start to rearm and undermine the other politically and prepare for the next phase of the war.

[00:25:42]So you could say a little bit like I don't know.

[00:25:45]The Punic Wars in history. There was like three of them, right? Before the complete destruction of Carthage.

[00:25:53]So let me know if you have any comments or questions. Otherwise, I will wrap it up at that and you know, Slava Ukraini that's is written in lots of languages on my t-shirt here. From Soven and do peremohy which means to victory for Ukraine.

[00:26:09]Do pobachennya from this beautiful Saturday afternoon in Odessa Mama, a place that Vladimir Putin is very unlikely to ever set foot in person.

[00:26:22]Ciao ciao for now.