Germany Tipping Point: AfD Surges as CDU Crumbles

Added: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in Germany. If is at 29%, that's where they're polling.

[00:00:09]>> Uh they will get to 30% and they will probably pass 30%. That's that's my opinion. I'm interested to hear what you have to say about it.

[00:00:16]>> Uh Mertz is is in collapse.

[00:00:19]>> Yes, >> the CDU is is in collapse. The SPD has collapsed.

[00:00:25]Uh Mertz is starting to blame the the Kremlin and Putin for his collapse, right? They're saying this is this is Putin highlighting Mertz's incompetence.

[00:00:34]At least that's an article that Politico put out the other day. It's it's amazing. And they go through all of all of the problems that Germany is facing under Mertz, the economic issues, uh the sanctions against Russia, uh the fact that he's unpopular, and everything they say is not a lie. I mean, they're running through >> his his his terrible track record >> and nothing they say in it is is uh is propaganda, but they blame it on Russia.

[00:00:59]It's like, why are you blaming Russia?

[00:01:00]You're blaming Russia for your own incompetence.

[00:01:02]>> Absolutely.

[00:01:03]>> Anyway, u the the situation is is pretty bad for the uh for the uh ruling political class in uh in Germany. And I don't know if you did you happen to see um Alice Videl's speech where she kind of outlined her foreign policy.

[00:01:19]>> Yes, >> she kind of went through it which was >> very logical, very very simple.

[00:01:24]>> Um absolutely the right thing for for Germany to do, you know, energy trade with Russia, good relations with China, good relations with with the United States. Is it that hard? Anyway, your thoughts, Alexander?

[00:01:36]>> Yes. Well, I think before we actually discuss the polling, I I would say that one of the reasons in my opinion for the polling is Alice Vital. You've just mentioned her. Now, as far as I'm concerned, and I've been following her very closely over the last um well, year or so, I would say that if you're talking about political leaders across Europe who are challenging the political status quo, the political elite, the centrist elite that has dominated European politics for so long, then Alice Videl is far and away the most articulate and the most effective and I think that this is starting to get through across Germany and is one of the reasons why we're starting to see this big move towards the IFD. One way or the other, they have got themselves an extremely capable and very articulate and very effective leader. Now going to the polling, you are absolutely correct.

[00:02:45]I think the if debt are going to break through the 30% barrier. Now I feel that this is the point the the key the key moment if the if breaks through the 30% barrier and stays there then it is the moment when it not only becomes the biggest party in Germany but it begins to start to look like the party in Germany. Germany that is going to win the biggest number of seats in the Bundistag and which is definitely heading for a victory in the next parliamentary elections. In fact, it would be a decisive moment in German politics. And if we look at the other side, if we look at the CDU, it currently is polling at 22%.

[00:03:45]that is already practically catastrophic levels if it falls below 20%.

[00:03:54]Which it might do if at the other end of the spectrum the IFD gets above 30%.

[00:04:03]Then we are looking at what in Germany you might not be entirely wrong if you called a revolutionary moment because in Germany ever since the foundation of the Federal Republic in the 1940s the CDU has been the political vehicle of the German establishment and it is the party which more than any other is the party that basically has set the tone and the character of the Federal Republic of Germany. If it falls below 20%. At the same time that the IFD is pulling above 30%. Then, as I said, we are looking at a transformative moment. And I predict that at that moment, we will start to see the CDU fall faster as more centeright voters who have historically supported the CDU start to migrate further and faster towards the IFD. And that is the moment when the IFD is going to start to break through in a big way right across the former West Germany. So this is we are we are almost now at that tipping point and the reason we are at that tipping point is partly because what we said just a moment ago that the IFA has a convincing leader in Alice Videl and going from that article that you were talking about Fredic mounts does not look like a convincing leader in Germany at this time but of course It it it goes beyond meths because Germany has been clearly going in the wrong direction for a long time in our opinion. We've discussed this many times in program after program stretching way back to the Merkel years. But of course, Schultz took this bad situation already which already existed and made it much worse and Matts came in and he's made it far worse still. So uh you know it's it's it's a a rapid decline in the political center and as I said if at that moment it looks like the CDU is polling below 20%. Well, all of those forces across Germany, all those people, the the the the business people, the people who work in regional banks and regional, you know, the Miteland people who have historically always looked to the CDU to look after them, to look after and protect their interests, who are already extremely disillusioned with the CDU. They will say to themselves, the IFAR is an alternative. It's got a convincing leader. It's got a program that makes sense for us. It's got an economic policy which we like and which is very like the economic policy that the CDU itself used to follow and which was partly which was responsible for Germany's economic takeoff in the 50s and 60s. So let's forget about the CDU.

[00:07:41]Let's start switching and backing the IFD because ultimately the IFD is much more like the CDU that we remember the CDU of Adenau and Airheart and Cole. So th this is the tipping point in my opinion in Germany today.

[00:08:04]So the uh political class in Germany and in the EU are going to flip out with what's happening with AF, right?

[00:08:11]>> They're going to absolutely lose it with with these polling numbers and with the rise of AF >> and the fall of uh of Mertz and the CDU.

[00:08:20]>> Yes. Uh what do you think they're going to to do to the a how are they going to try and stop the a sort of uh of trick like they played uh against Romania and um Yescu are we going to see something else? Um Politico the article that I was mentioning which talks about how how Russia is uh is going after Mertz and they're explaining Mertz's fall on Putin propaganda. The title, Alexander, is interesting.

[00:08:50]Putin's trolls are weakening Mertz to boost Russia friendly far right. I think that title pretty much says it all. That gives us a hint as to what the EU globalists and the German political class are going to do. Kill two birds with one stone, right? Go after Russian propaganda while at the same time trying to knock out the AFM. What do you make of that title? Well indeed I mean tell as you absolutely rightly say it tells absolutely everything. Now I think just one further thing to say I mean the the one of the reasons for the dismay is that there was a great assumption or widespread assumption amongst a large part of the political class that Matts was going to be the answer and solution to the problem. I mean, he'd been built up over many years as this outstandingly capable and clever man on the right of German politics who would know how to take the CDU further to the right, who would connect with German business and with German the wider German public who had been a successful lawyer and who'd made a significant fortune as a lawyer who would be the one person who would tell the current policies that are being followed by Germany with respect to Ukraine and Russia with respect to EU integration and all of those things. So I think partly part of the shock is that he has failed and failed so fast. I think that was absolutely not anticipated. And I think the other thing to remember is that there is so much riding now not just on Mertz himself but on certain aspects of his program. The idea of German rearmament for example we on the Dan have been deeply skeptical about German rearmament right from the moment it started. We always said that it was illconceived and not properly thought through and did not understand Germany. today's Germany or the actual sentiments of the German people but that was not the elite consensus and you know when he announced this great rearmament program there was relief and euphoria over it. So the fact that everything is unraveling so quickly it has dismayed the political class across Europe and also their friends in the United States as well. So what are they going to do?

[00:11:32]They're going to do exactly what you said. They're going to blame it all on Russia. They're going to say that the IFA is a stoogge of Russia. They will say that the reason the IFA is doing as well as it is is not because of all of the objective problems that are accumulating in Germany, which as you absolutely rightly say that political article has correctly identified. It is because of uh um Russia and its supposed information war for which of course no real evidence is ever produced and that will indeed be used uh be wheeled out in order to start to target the IFD to start to target obviously Alice Vital.

[00:12:19]We're going to see the security services in Germany which have already said that the IFD is an extremist organization.

[00:12:28]They're going to crank up further. The SBD which is the increasingly fractious and unhappy coalition partner of the CDU is already uh saying um that the right thing to do is to ban the IFD.

[00:12:48]You get the sense that with the SPD that's pretty much their entire political program. Now Delinka, the left-wing party also supports this. So do the Greens. I'm sure. I haven't followed the Greens, but I'm sure they would not be opposed to it. Steinmeer, the president, wants to do it. I I think that there are a number of things that perhaps make this slightly more difficult or more difficult. Firstly, Germany is a very diverse society.

[00:13:20]It's got more alternative voices than most West European countries do.

[00:13:28]Um, I mean, it's got something of an independent media. It's got something of a culture where, as I said, there is push back against this sort of thing.

[00:13:41]The fact that 29% of people in Germany are now saying in opinion polls that they support the IFD makes it more difficult to take that kind of action.

[00:13:53]The fact that in East Germany theft is started to become the dominant party makes it more difficult because again you risk dividing Germany politically in that kind of way which I think in Germany they are nervous about doing.

[00:14:12]But the other major factor that I think stands in the way of this is that there are people within the CDU who are increasingly saying, "Well, why would we want to ban the IFD?

[00:14:30]What we should be working towards is a coalition with them because ultimately the IFD is what we once were and ought to be and there is that sentiment in the CDU which is a much more complex party than some of the other parties that we see in Europe today. So I think there will be resistance within the CDU itself to any move in this direction. Though whether it will be strong enough, whether any of the factors that I've spoken about would be strong enough to prevent such a ban is another matter. What I will say is this. If a ban like this is made, then again this is a crisis point in Germany.

[00:15:27]It remains a very law-abiding, very orderly society. I can't imagine, I'm not suggesting that there would be immediate riots in the streets, but there would be a massive rupture between the German people and their elite and it would in inevitably over time start to manifest itself in all sorts of ways, especially as the elite almost certainly would in that case follow the same policies, the same set of policies that are creating the conditions of crisis.

[00:16:01]is that are leading to the rise of the IFD in the first place.

[00:16:07]>> What do you make of Mertz's idea, his proposal?

[00:16:12]>> Allegedly, he sent this as a letter >> to Ukraine to grant them >> associate member status in the EU, but no voting rights or anything like that.

[00:16:22]>> Or what is this about?

[00:16:27]Well, I think I think even Mertz is now starting to understand that this whole conflict is undermining he the whole political stability of Germany itself. A and he's trying to find some way to square the circle. I mean, it's become increasingly clear that there is strong opposition across the EU to Ukrainian membership. It's also becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine in or at le Zalinski not only insists on EU membership, but he also resists any proposals to make concessions to the Russians and he wants to prolong the war. So Merkel is trying to >> buy sorry Meltz sorry >> Merch Merkel it's the same it is it pretty much is he's trying to buy he's trying to buy uh uh Zalinski by telling him make these concessions to the Russians and in return we'll give you um association membership and of course it's not going to it's not going to happen because Zalinski is not going to accept he's not going to agree to any of this. He's going to say, and by the way on this, Zilinski is absolutely right.

[00:17:47]Um, Ukraine was promised EU membership.

[00:17:52]It was promised EU membership all the way back when the association agreement, which was the root of the whole crisis back in 2013, was first proposed. You're not going to palm us off with something like associated membership which absolutely doesn't mean anything and as we're giving up any millimeter of our territory, we are never under any circumstances going to do that. So it's a desperate throat by MS and it's not going to get him it's not going to do him any good at all. What Mertz really needs to do, the the only thing that could change, the situation in Europe and in Germany would be if he picked up the phone and called the Russians. But of course, he's not going to do that either.

[00:18:48]>> Yeah, that's never going to happen. I think he's too afraid to do that.

[00:18:51]>> Absolutely.

[00:18:52]>> Right. I don't think anyone wants to wants to be the negotiator with Russia because >> what that means is that you're going to be um handed the the capitulation papers, right?

[00:19:03]>> Absolutely.

[00:19:03]>> You're going to go to Moscow and Putin's going to say, "Well, here you go. Here are the terms."

[00:19:07]>> Exactly. Exactly.

[00:19:09]>> You're going to be that guy or that or that girl that that takes the capitulation papers back to back to the Europeans. Besides, I mean, the the the whole point of Mertz over the last year is that he is the person who's going to prepare Germany to fight Russia, right?

[00:19:24]So, I mean, suddenly, you know, flipping so completely, I mean, it just isn't it just isn't politically possible. And besides which, I mean, I viscerally, I don't think he can do it.

[00:19:36]>> Isn't that a stupid economic plan from Mertzen from Germany? Mertz is this economic genius, his financial genius.

[00:19:43]And so his his plan to to to drive the the German economy going forward now that it's been de-industrialized and hollowed out of of everything that it used to do, even automobiles. China has pretty much overtaken Germany in that as well. So his his brilliant economic plan is is just to to manufacture weapons >> to to turn Germany into a war economy pretty much.

[00:20:05]>> And you have Mercedes now saying that they're going to to to manufacture um military vehicles. uh you have Volkswagen saying the same. I mean is this is this really a a serious economic plan uh going forward?

[00:20:21]>> No. No, it is not. I mean first of all um Germany developed a very very powerful automobile car industry. Um and it it was a world leader there. Um and a world leader over built up over many decades. I mean remember uh the internal combustion engine was invented in Germany back in the 19th century by Ben uh by uh Dameler and Benz I mean two rival inventors who then came together and created Dameler Benz which of course is the company that makes the Mercedes cars but I mean it's it's something that Germany has long done um for Germany to enter the world of arms production means to go ahead head headto-head with the Americans, the Russians, the Chinese sorts of people. I mean the field is already full here and Germany does not have the industrial depth to do it. And I mean besides we discussed this many times, you can't simply convert car factories into tank or armored vehicle or artillery factories. It can't be done. drone factories.

[00:21:42]Yes.

[00:21:43]>> Okay.

[00:21:43]>> But but but I mean again I mean you're you're then placing everything on drones. Drones are cheap anyway. They they don't have they don't come with the kind of econ you know economic benefits the profit margins that cars do. I I in in a way actually uh focusing entirely on drone technology is to accelerate your pro your de-industrialization because you're going for a very simple technologies rather than the very sophisticated and advanced technologies which Germany is good at. And the thing to understand about the car industry in Germany is that obviously there's the factories that make the cars, but there's the factories that make all the subco components that go into those cars. That is a massive part of the mitel stunt, the you know the middle ranking companies that make up Germany's core. They can't all just convert tomorrow to making subcomponents for weapons. I this is this takes time. It's we're talking about, as I said, a 10, 20 year program. And in any event, the other problem with weapons production is that if you are making weapons, you're making for your consumer goods, especially if you're Germany. Because Germany is not this broadscaled economy that say the United States or China or Russia are where you can make weapons and you could mass-roduce at the same time large numbers of passenger cars and trucks and other consumer goods as well. So if Germany starts making its factories produce weapons, which it wouldn't be able to, but let's say it tried to, and had them produce for your consumer goods, then Germans need to have consumer goods and they need to import them. And at that point, Germany goes from running a current account surplus, which has been absolutely essential in terms of the German economic motor, to have running a current account deficit. Now, that has, by the way, been a historic problem in Germany. It was a major problem in Germany before the Second World War. It was one of the reasons why the depression in Germany in the early 1930s was so severe because Germany in order to cover the perennial deficit in its current account and by the way also to pay reparations had to borrow. And again, if you are going to run a permanent current account deficit, Germany will have to borrow. And well, that again changes the entire character of the Germany that has developed during the period of the Federal Republic and ultimately it affects Europe too. So none of this makes any kind of economic sense.

[00:25:03]Unless you are someone like Black Rockck and you want Germany to start floating lots and lots of debt because of course debt is what makes you makes your money.

[00:25:19]So you can see exactly where Mounts himself is coming from. But as an economic policy for Germany and indeed for Europe, it makes no sense at all.

[00:25:32]Yeah. Yeah. I think you just nailed it.

[00:25:34]Yeah. Okay.

[00:25:37]We'll uh we'll end the the video there.

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