Texas Election: The impact of a Trump endorsement on candidates

Added: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]election is another test of President Trump's political power and whether Trump's endorsement of Ken Paxton is enough to take down incumbent Senator John Cornin.

[00:00:08]>> Yes, Marcelino Bonito here with a closer look at just how powerful a Trump endorsement can be. Marcelino >> Lenn and Mia in today's Republican party, a Trump endorsement can be political gold. Just in the last few weeks, candidates backed by the president have racked up win after win.

[00:00:24]In Indiana, Trump backed challengers helped knock off five of eight GOP state senators. You see them there on your screen. In Louisiana, his endorsement helped take down incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy. And in Kentucky, Congressman Thomas Massie also lost after Trump targeted him. So, the question tonight, will John Cornin be next? I want to show you what the data shows. A University of Houston hobby school poll found 55% of Texas GOP voters say a Trump endorsement makes them more likely to support that candidate. 36% said it would make no difference and just 9% said it makes them actually less likely to vote for Trump's pick. That same poll showed a very tight race between Ken Paxton and John Cornin with Cornin just barely down to Paxton 48 to 45%. That poll just outside the margin of error. But after Trump's endorsement last week, some analysts believe the final result may not be this close. It seems likely that uh more likely than not that pre that that Attorney General Paxton is going to prevail on Tuesday and become the Republican nominee for the United States Senate uh and likely going to be the next United States Senator from Texas.

[00:01:35]Um but it seems that John Cornin's career has come to an end. This is truly the party of President Trump and Republicans are well aware of it from from coast to coast and we're starting to see that now play out in races up and down the ballot. And one final note here, guys, I want to show you the 2018 midterms Trump report card. Back then, Trump endorsed 75 candidates in the general election. As you see here, only 42 of those candidates won. That's only a success rate of about 55%. So, bottom line, the president's picks are hard to beat in primaries, but it's a much different story when November rolls around. Back to you.

[00:02:12]>> Very good point and giving us context there. Thank you, Marcelino. Joining us now, K11 political analyst Brandon Rining House. It's going to be a busy night.

[00:02:20]>> Wow, it's a long night. Yes, it will.

[00:02:21]So, I wonder if we've seen a permanent shift where Republican primaries in Texas are really based on a loyalty test and less about the issues.

[00:02:28]>> Yeah. So much of Republican party politics in Texas is about this loyalty test for Donald Trump. He has been so successful at getting his candidates over the finish line that, as Marcelino showed, it's a moment that Republicans are really clamoring for. So in a crowded primary with a lot of candidates, sometimes Trump's distinguishing factor is that he's got the endorsement. So it doesn't stop the other candidates from sidling up to him and talking about how he's like great and they're with him on things, but definitely his endorsement is the gold standard for Republicans these days.

[00:02:58]>> So neither one of these candidates have ever lost a race, but let's go ahead and look at Cornin, right? since he doesn't have the endorsement of President Trump.

[00:03:06]If he were to lose, what would that say to other longtime Republicans in Washington who don't quite align so with President Trump?

[00:03:15]>> I think it says that their days are numbered. In a way, Cornin represents the old guard. He is the Bush era conservative that has been in short supply in GOP politics these days. So, I think the message is pretty clear. even if he loses this election, even if he wins this election, it's still going to be the case that those kinds of candidates are worried about what the future of the Republican party holds.

[00:03:37]So, like we were just saying, it's less about the politics and the ideology and it's more about the kind of feelalty to Donald Trump.

[00:03:44]>> I got you. Are you a mega warrior is what I've heard him say. So, uh you heard Marcelino kind of lay this out. in the primaries in particular, uh, Trump back candidates seem to do well, but it comes to the general election when everybody's in on the voting, little less so.

[00:04:00]>> Yeah, that's really where the rubber meets the road and candidates have to be worried about where they are visav Donald Trump. His numbers, while still okay in Texas, are definitely not what they used to be. The kind of issues he's been pressing and that he's run for camp campaigned on for years like the border security, like immigration are things that are falling in terms of where voters are and what they want to see from their politicians. Rising are things like the economy, jobs, inflation. These are all hurting him.

[00:04:28]So, a Trump endorsed candidate in a general may be a liability.

[00:04:32]>> Yeah. So, in spite of uh his immense overlook of the party and influence, they're looking at the president's record and trying to decide, okay, hm, maybe we'll see.

[00:04:42]>> Yeah. And the world has to prepare for a political reality post Donald Trump. And Republicans know this well, too. So, they don't want to be too close and they want to have their own campaign, but to win the primary, they've got to have his seal of approval.

[00:04:55]>> It's quite the balance, and it's called politics, right?

[00:04:58]>> That's why we call it politics.

[00:04:59]>> Brandon Rotting House, thank you for being here. We're just getting started.

[00:05:02]We're going to see you plenty more this evening. We look forward to you being a part of our panel and giving us more of your expert insight and analysis. Thank you.