International diplomacy involves complex power dynamics where leaders may publicly project strength while privately acknowledging dependencies; the 2024 US-China summit illustrates how economic interdependence, strategic interests (like Taiwan and Middle East conflicts), and domestic political pressures shape diplomatic outcomes, with China's pragmatic approach often giving it leverage in negotiations despite US public posturing.
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Trump set to meet with Xi in Beijing as war and inflation weigh on his presidency • FRANCE 24Ajouté :
So, we're the two superpowers, said Donald Trump as he departed the White House to head to Beijing for his highly anticipated summit with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Coming at a restless moment for a world worried about war, trade, and artificial intelligence. All three subjects on the agenda. Trade perhaps set to top them though. Donald Trump's hoping to sign deals for China to buy more American aircraft and food.
Trump also saying he's not sure the US needs any help from China amid the war in the Middle East. Let's hear what he had to say.
Do you think he needs to intervene at all with the Iranian Do you think he can help in any way?
>> I don't think we need any help with Iran. We'll win it one way or the other.
We'll win it We'll win it peacefully or otherwise.
Uh their navy's gone, their air force is gone. Every single element of their war machine is gone.
Donald Trump there. Well, international affairs commentator Doug Herbert is with me here on set. Um so, Doug, does Donald Trump >> need Xi Jinping?
>> Yeah, he does. Um I mean, he's not willing to acknowledge it, Stewart, in so many words. This is not the summit that Donald Trump had wanted or thought he would be flying into. He thought he'd be uh Trump the uh the triumphant president, the conqueror of Iran, of Tehran uh coming into this summit in a position of force. Instead, he, whether he acknowledges it or not, and he doesn't acknowledge it, uh he essentially needs the diplomatic clout uh that China would have over Iran, Iran being a key ally right now of China, uh to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and get the choke hold off the global economy, a choke hold which has been uh putting a a stranglehold as well on the US economy, even if uh Trump isn't willing to sort of admit it that way, saying he doesn't need the strait, he doesn't need China, he doesn't need any of it. He could do it all on his own. That at least is in Trump's mind. But look, you look at the score sheet here. Like I said, this is a summit that had already been originally slated for the end of March. It was postponed. That sort of flew in the face of all of China's sort of, you know, desire for protocol following that. It perturbed Beijing a lot that it had to be pushed back, but they accommodated Trump on this. As he flies in, it's not simply that the Iran war is raging on with no with no real off-ramp for Donald Trump.
You see right now the US economy feeling the strain. You have the inflation numbers back up to almost 4%, the latest numbers. You have Donald Trump's approval ratings continuing to slide.
You have key munitions in the US and the Pentagon's arsenal continuing to dwindle even if the Pentagon claims nothing to see here, carry on. You see military personnel and resources being redeployed from the Asia-Pacific region, that so-called pivot that was supposed to happen, back to another war in the Middle East. You see the Republicans on the back foot, on the defensive ahead of crucial midterm elections. You see alliances in Asia and Europe fracturing because of Donald Trump perceived as having turned his back on friends and foes. You see Donald Trump turning away from green energy and the green transition. You see all of these things.
It sounds like a laundry list, but these are just the most prominent issues that Donald Trump is facing as as he flies in right now, and and Xi Jinping knows it.
Xi Jinping is sitting there. It's hardly like China doesn't have problems of its own. Its economy is also right now under pressure. Yeah, and China being a giant exporter to the rest of the world, it's in its interest to make sure that the global economy doesn't go off the skids, go off the rails. So, sure, he wants to work with the US president, but if you're asking, to appropriate Trump's phase, who has the upper hand going into this summit, who holds the cards? It would be Xi Jinping. And yeah, the war in Iran isn't helping any. It's really right now dominating. One thing perhaps in Donald Trump's favor, these two are chums, aren't they? I mean, he keeps going on about the big friendship between them. Is that going to help at all? Depends whom you ask. First of all, Xi Jinping famously keeps a poker face.
You know, he has that sort of smile, smirk, Mona Lisa-ish sort of expression. You can't quite read what's going on there. Um we know he's very pragmatic. We know that he may have good chemistry with Trump or not. We don't actually know. We do know that he hasn't done anything overtly to royal Trump.
You know that he was very, very pragmatic. Uh you might even say he won the tariff war last year when Trump slapped those 145% tariffs. Quickly retreated. Why? Because China basically said right back at you. You can't have any critical rare earth minerals. So, Xi Jinping showed he knows how to cool, calculating, play Donald Trump while remaining cordial with him. Now, Trump, and here's where it gets interesting, this is your question. Trump repeatedly, constantly mentions his great friendship with Xi Jinping. He says He said last just last month in mid-April he says, "I'm going to give him a big fat hug when I see him." Um but then again, this plays through This isn't just Xi Jinping. Trump This is almost like a trope with Donald Trump.
talking about his great friendships with leaders that most of the world say, "But wait, they can't stand the guy, can't they?" Trump perceives a lot of these people as really liking him. The same way he always says generals are coming up to him and people are saying, "Sir, sir, sir." It's this sense of his own self-image of everyone being reverential to him. But even one step on beyond that, everyone sort of likes him. How could people not like me? I'm a likable guy. We have a great friendship, great chemistry. So, like I said, yes, it may be the case they actually get along.
They may have some chemistry in real life. Will it help this summit? Not perhaps in any practical sense. You'll have some business announcements. Yeah, Beijing's probably going to announce that they're buying some more Boeing planes. You're going to have a a slew of of announcements of that nature cuz Beijing knows that they need to give something transactional to Donald Trump.
But as far as really cultivating a true friendship, not really. I will quote Chancellor Frederick Merz in the comment that got Trump so ruffled a couple of a couple of weeks back where he said Trump is going into this summit humiliated by a smaller country, Iran. He's not looking good and he doesn't really know how to mend the fence and Xi Jinping knows this and he has and he knows that Trump has no real strategy and that he does need China even if he's not willing to admit it. Don't behind you there, we've got the two presidents who've been Well, they just disappeared as I said.
There you go. There should There should be a third figure in there or there should There's a big elephant in the room. This is Taiwan. Yeah, Taiwan and arms sales to Taiwan.
China has been clear. Xi Jinping has been clear. Taiwan is the biggest issue in the relationship between his country and the United States. I just talked about Iran. Yes, that's looming over this whole summit. Big issue. Taiwan is the absolute go-to issue and you know, some analysts are saying that there's already 2027 is a soft target date for for China to put its military, not its money, but its military where its mouth is and actually use force perhaps to seize control of Taiwan, a province that it considers what it considers a renegade province that is part of China and about time that it be brought into the fold if if it's not willing to do so on its own then forcefully. The US has an official policy Stewart right now which is it does not recognize the statehood of Taiwan of Taiwan. It does not recognize its independence, but it's also not actively opposed to the idea of Taiwan seeking independence. It's a seems like a fine semantic nuance in diplomatic language. But this is what China's going to play on. Their arms sales also a pipeline of over $14 billion arms sales which have not been sent by the White House yet onto Taiwan.
That's going to be in play. Xi Jinping will probably explicitly put pressure on Trump uh to make sure that that arms sale doesn't go through, but they'll also be looking for a change in the tone, the wording of the diplomatic language the US uses with respect to Taiwan. You might say it's not a big deal where the US has it actively opposes or it doesn't support, but for China, for Beijing, for China watchers, and for people in in the US looking for a policy, that wording by a US president is everything. It's spliced and diced, and it can change geopolitics. It's a big deal. Taiwan is a big deal at this meeting. Doug, thanks so much. Doug Herbert, our national first commentator here on uh France 24 for you there.
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