Shock Poll Shows 'Effective Tie' Between JD Vance And Marco Rubio For 2028 GOP Nomination

Added: 2026-06-03

[00:00:03]Hi everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes.

[00:00:07]Joining me once again is Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College Polling. Matt, thanks so much for coming back on.

[00:00:13]>> Happy to be here, Brittany.

[00:00:15]>> Emerson College has a new national poll out and I want to start where we always do when we talk about these types of polls and that's at President Trump's approval rating. Last month when you and I talked about it, voters weren't feeling the economy. The majority of them did not support the war against Iran and that was really reflected in Trump's approval. A month later, has that changed? How are voters feeling about him now?

[00:00:39]>> Yeah, Brittany, that's right. Last month we saw President Trump's worst approval rating that we have seen in our polling and it really hasn't changed much this month. So, we see 39% approve of his job performance versus 55% who disapprove. So, that's no net change since last month, but it is a record low approval number there, that 39%.

[00:01:03]He's officially crossed that 40% threshold in our polling. So, I would not say that this is good news for the Trump administration. It's maybe not as bad as it could be. It's not worse than last month necessarily, but certainly a new low in his approval rating.

[00:01:25]>> What is contributing to this new low in his approval rating? Is it what we talked about last month, the economy, the war against Iran, any other new factors or more of the same?

[00:01:36]>> Yeah, Brittany, I think it's all of the above and we discussed this previously how Trump's coalition seems to be falling apart to some degree. So, we see now that 64% of independents disapprove of his job performance. 55% of men disapprove of of job performance. These are the demographics that President Trump counted on to win the White House. And when you see these numbers, it's it's hard to say that these folks feel like he is representing them and that he has their best interests in mind. Uh this is just a a staggering number, frankly, among some of these folks and his overall approval. So, I think that it is several issues that are feeding into this, the economy certainly. We didn't test uh the Iran war this month, but I suspect it would not change uh significantly from last month. And I just don't think that there are many policies on the table otherwise right now that folks can point to as a positive.

[00:02:40]>> If you're seeing President Trump's coalition fall apart, he's obviously the leader of the Republican Party. Are those sour feelings really spilling out how voters feel about the Republican Party in general? Talk to us about that.

[00:02:53]>> Yeah, to some degree. So, when we ask voters uh whether they think the Republican Party is headed in the right direction or if it's on the wrong track, we see that uh 58% uh or 59% rather say that the Republican Party is headed on the wrong track rather than the right direction. Now, that said, 78% of Republicans say that it's headed in the right direction. Uh 68% of independents say that it's on the wrong track. So, it's a little bit of a mixed message. When we compare that to Democrats, it's very similar. 58% say that the Democratic Party is on the wrong track. So, folks just generally aren't happy, it seems, with either political party right now. And Republicans, it seems, are uh a little bit worse off here and especially among independents.

[00:03:47]>> If no one's really happy with the state of politics right now, Republicans are in a little bit of a worse boat though as you're saying.

[00:03:54]What does it What do the midterms look like here? When you're looking at a 2026 generic congressional ballot, what does that really look like? Who's doing better?

[00:04:04]>> Yeah, and so while that sort of right direction wrong track, those numbers are a little bit muddled, this is very clear. Uh when we ask folks about their congressional vote in November, Democrats are up by nine points. So that's very little change since April when they were up by 10. Uh that's a 30-point margin for Democrats among independents. Uh the only demographic that Republicans actually win is the sort of uh 50 to 69-year-old voters. So that's sort of middle to upper middle-age folks. That's the only uh one that Republicans win and it's still very close. So, you know, we've talked about this before. I've said this before. I would not want to be a Republican heading into the midterm election. I think this does point a little bit more towards uh you know, which side folks feel a little bit better about. That's clearly Democrats since they have this nine-point lead despite the fact that they don't necessarily have a high opinion of the party.

[00:05:05]>> And where are uh independents breaking?

[00:05:06]I know you mentioned that President Trump's coalition is falling apart, but when you're looking at a generic congressional ballot, are independents then more likely going to the Democratic side?

[00:05:19]>> Yeah, Brittany. So it is a 30-point margin for Democrats among independents.

[00:05:24]That may be a record number for uh Democrats among independents in our polling. I have to double-check that one, but it's very clear that independent voters uh do not like the direction that the Republican Party is headed and they intend to let them know by voting for Democrats in November.

[00:05:43]>> I think it's really important, especially as we sit here less than six months away from the midterms, to talk about those top issues facing voters.

[00:05:51]What are they?

[00:05:52]>> Yeah, Britney, and as usual, the economy is the top issue. However, this month is the highest that we have on record of folks who say that the economy is their top issue at 41%.

[00:06:05]That's followed by threats to democracy at 19% and immigration at 11%. That immigration number has continually come down over the past several months. We just haven't seen it quite as much in the news, I think. Uh and that threats to democracy number has bounced around sort of between 10 and 20% at various points over the course of the past year.

[00:06:27]Uh but, as always, the economy is tops for voters. It'll be top line at the ballot box. And I think it's pretty clear from Trump's approval number that uh he has not helped himself on this economic side, either.

[00:06:42]>> I do now want to turn and set our sights on the future. We'll talk about 2020 in just a little bit, but before that, I think we need to talk about something that seems a little more imminent, and that's Cuba, because President Trump in recent months has talked about and ruminated, quote, "taking Cuba in some form." He said, "Whether I free it, take it, I think I can do anything I want with it." He also said a few months ago that he thinks that we'll be doing something with Cuba very soon. He said it may be a friendly takeover. It may not be a friendly takeover. And he said that he thinks he could have the honor of taking Cuba.

[00:07:18]How would voters feel about US military action against Cuba?

[00:07:23]>> Yeah, Britney, this is a trend that we've seen over the past year or so, and that is voters disapprove of the Trump administration's meddling in foreign affairs, just generally speaking. And I think that that does speak to some of his campaign promises of America first.

[00:07:41]Uh that isn't necessarily reflected here in voters' minds. They're not necessarily seeing America first in some of his rhetoric and actions. So, when we ask about military intervention in Cuba, whether folks support it or oppose it within the next year, we see that there is a majority who are opposed, 57% to just 23% who support intervention. So, that is a startlingly low number who actually support active intervention, military intervention in Cuba. It's not a good starting place if the Trump administration decides to go down this road.

[00:08:20]>> Now, I want to look at 2028 because whenever you and I have talked about the next crop of presidential contenders, at least on the right, the GOP frontrunner has far and away always been in recent months Vice President J.D. Vance. But, things have really shifted, it seems, in the past couple of months. Talk to us about where they stand right now, starting with the right.

[00:08:41]>> Yeah, Brittany, this was interesting, and I think we've seen this in some other polling that's come out recently as well. So, when we asked GOP voters who they would support for the 2028 presidential nomination, we see that Vance is at 36%, but Rubio in an effective tie at 35%, DeSantis and Haley at 5%, all others less than 5% with, understandably, 15% undecided. So, this is a major shift towards Rubio, away from Vance. They're splitting a vote here, 35 to 35 and 36%.

[00:09:19]So, this is definitely a rise for Rubio.

[00:09:21]I expect that we will likely see these numbers bounce around, of course, over the over the course of the next year plus as the nominations get underway.

[00:09:33]But, this is this is certainly a high water mark for Rubio here.

[00:09:39]>> And then when you're looking at these types of voters, who exactly is a Rubio Republican primary voter and who's a Vance Republican primary voter?

[00:09:49]>> Yeah, this is where it's also sort of interesting because the Rubio coalition is more so older. We see a real age split here. So, voters over 50, 41% back Rubio versus 35% for Vance. And then the opposite is sort of true for Vance. Voters under 50, it's 37% Vance, 26% Rubio.

[00:10:12]Uh I think that that goes along with the fact that Rubio is much more of a known commodity, much more of an establishment Republican. And so some of these older Republican voters feel more comfortable with him, like him. You know, he's still carrying that MAGA flame, uh but in this sort of establishment branding. Whereas Vance came from as sort of an outsider, uh first into the Senate, now into the White House. Uh but it does seem to make some sense, I think, that he is more attractive to these younger voters. He allies himself with some of these younger influencers. So, it does make sense. We can start to see the uh the blueprints of some of these coalitions building here.

[00:10:55]>> Speaking of blue, let's look to the left a little bit. Who do Democratic primary voters want to see at the top of the ticket in 2028?

[00:11:05]>> And Brittany, again, this is where we're seeing some shifts. So, uh among Democratic voters, Pete Buttigieg is now leading 18%.

[00:11:14]Gavin Newsom has fallen significantly, now at 16%, AOC 11%, Shapiro and Harris at 10%, and then Bashir at 9% with 18% undecided. Uh so, I think the real story here is that Newsom is fading a bit. Uh he's at 16%. There were points where he was over 20% among the Democratic electorate. And more or less everyone else apart from Harris has benefited from Newsom's number coming down. We see Buttigieg, AOC, Shapiro, and Beshear all gain between two and four points in this poll versus our most recent Democratic primary poll.

[00:11:57]So, this one is very much anybody's race. I think there could be another candidate who isn't either listed here or is further down the list in single digits who could come up and again, I think it's anyone's race. This one's really exciting.

[00:12:13]>> You and I have talked before really about Newsom's star rising and I don't want to overdramatize it, but it really seems like we're now talking about that star falling just a little bit because according to these numbers at in August, he was at 25%. Now it's 9 months later, that's fallen by 9% at 16%.

[00:12:34]His support has been consistently slipping over the past 9 months.

[00:12:39]I'm curious why that is. What types of Newsom voters are leaving him?

[00:12:45]>> And looking at some of these numbers, we see they're kind of all over the place.

[00:12:49]And again, I think that that is to be expected. We are so far away from the actual nomination. Really anything can happen and we knew that these voters were not necessarily locked in on any one candidate. So, you know, this this this melt so to speak for for Governor Newsom, it's sort of come from everywhere from various demographics, from the Democratic electorate at large. And again, I expect to see that he could very well rebound.

[00:13:19]He could go past 30%. He could he could drop out entirely. It's tough to say right now. We are still so early, but anything could happen and I don't think that this is over for Newsom. I think that he has been out of the news cycle in the past month or two. So, I you know, I think one move and he could very easily catapult himself back up to the top.

[00:13:45]>> Well, there's certainly a lot to look out for between now and 2028. Matt Taglia per usual, always appreciate our conversations. Thanks so much for joining me.

[00:13:53]>> Thanks Britney. See you next time.