Vijay Floor Test | Vijay Hopes To Pass Confidence Vote, Fractured AIADMK To Support

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[00:00:04]Okay, so the developing story right now before the floor test actually begins in the assembly and we'll go across live in just a moment Vasoda to our reporters on the ground at the Tamil Nadu assembly.

[00:00:16]The latest we're getting right now is that the DMK unsurprisingly is likely to abstain in this vote of confidence today. Vijay's TV is set for that floor test in a short while from now.

[00:00:28]Obviously, Vijay is banking on his allies to not only survive but uh but go well past that magic figure of 117 that he needs to win this trust for >> that's right uh sh in fact uh uh the DMK allies you know earthwire allies CPM and BCK are supporting Vijay in this whole endeavor and it's also a perception battle for DMK because MK stalin DMK DMK chief has repeatedly said said that he does not want to pull the TVK government down he will be a respons responsible opposition and now this is a chance to prove that he walks the talk and this also is coming up even after uh Vijay reached out to all opposition allies specifically went to MK Stalin's residence there there were hugs there were handshakes and also embraces exchange of gifts and shawls and now we see the TV facing this test and DMK all set to abstain they have 59 they have 59 MLAs in the house abstaining would mean a big boost for the TV Let's get across to our reporters now.

[00:01:30]DM Vidira Raghav joins us live. Velcome and explain to us for the DMK how important is it to maintain that perception that MK Stalin is walking the talk when it comes to being a responsible opposition and not wanting to pull the government down.

[00:01:47]>> It's absolutely important and I think the whole exercise was that the DMK did not want the optics of being the party which brought down the Vijay government.

[00:01:54]And uh if you look if you go back to the days of uh formation of the government where I was standing with the two of you in the heat as well that there was uh there was a sense that uh you know there were several political realignments that we were looking at. I think the story today Masuda is really that of the AIDMK. What happens to the AIDMK the road ahead for it? Is it disintegrating?

[00:02:17]Uh if it's disintegrating is it entering the TVK? Because let's not forget that even senior aid leaders who moved to the TVK like eight time MLAs KSON is not up in the picking order as far as Vijay is concerned. He may be the most senior leader in the party in the cabinet but he's not up there in the pecking order.

[00:02:34]It's Busousan and Adavarjun. It's the core team that started the TVK together with Vijay that stuck with him as the top top three or four in the cabinet. So what will happen to those splinter elements because they're not going to want to shift without some kind of assurance of what they're going to get.

[00:02:50]So it'll be interesting to watch what happens next. But I think it's slowly the AIDMK moving towards disintegration and the DMK playing a wait and watch game. Whether it's the astrologer issue, whether it is uh any other issue as far as the Tamai, they will pick up issues of this nature and slowly build a narrative. Uh Vira, what will Vijay and the TVK be looking out for? You know, they don't have real fears about not hitting the numbers. That's not their concern. Are there any are there any signals that they will be looking out for from today's floor test? We know the DMK is likely to abstain. Anything else they should be looking out for?

[00:03:26]>> Absolutely. The AIDMK numbers. I think the DMK is done deal for them. They know what's happened with the DMK. whether they abstain. Most likely they're likely to abstain because they don't want to send the optics of being against the government at this stage or pulling the government down at this stage. It will be interesting to see the numbers as far as the AIDMK is concerned and then what happens next. Do they have the two/3s majority? Uh will it become then a splinter group of the party? Will it take over the two leaf symbol and then integrate itself with the whizzle? Uh those are things that Vijay will look out for. And I think what he's also going to be looking out for very closely is the strategy for the road ahead sh in terms of whether he's got enough numbers to carry on for 5 years or does he need perhaps at some point of time to look at another election to get the numbers back.

[00:04:13]>> Right. So Shivan Vira the AITMK has sent two letters to JCD Prabhakar who's the speaker. We don't know the numbers that are there with both these factions and that's where the uh I think that's where a lot of curiosity is because there is this one faction which has about 30 MLAs is what we've been told but then reports realistically place it to place that number around 24 to 26 which which is the faction that's being led by Mr. Shan Mugam and Bummani and then there's another faction that's led by head party Palani Shami. Two letters received by JCD Prabhakar. Speaker we have we we have Sam Daniel joining us now outside the assembly. Sam Daniel have the MLA started arriving at the assembly. Uh is the DMK very sure of abstaining? And when it comes to the AIDMK's approach to this entire issue what is the realistic number on each side?

[00:05:03]Basa the TVK lawmakers have arrived.

[00:05:06]They were the first one to come because they were all staying in a resort outside Chennai. They came by a special bus of a few buses. Secondly, the AADMK rebel campus arrived led by SPU money and CV Shanbagam and we're waiting for both the leader of opposition, the DMK le uh lawmakers and the key ADMK leaders including EPS. At the moment indications are I spoke to at least three MLAs including DMK allies who got elected under DMK symbol. They say so far they've not been told what should be their stand but largely they say they are likely to abstain because DMK would not want to take the risk of being seen to be voting against and contribute if something goes wrong for the fall of this government. Secondly, Stalin had promised that the DMK will not be in any way be a hurdle for the TVK's government formation because they feel that the mandate is clearly for a change and they should as a responsible opposition function that way. But in the case of the AIK, they're divided although no one in writing has given how many members they have. Indications are EPS camp may have 17 members including himself and indications are the there are other 30 members who could may not may or may not support the rebel camp.

[00:06:23]>> If things go well this way, chances are that the rebel camp may choose to vote in favor of TVK or they too may abstain whichever they feel is legally safe for them to avoid disqualification under the anti-defectionection law. Either way it will help uh TVK because if they vote in favor the numbers in terms of their support will go up. If they abstain the total strength in the assembly will come down and again they are indirectly contributing to the higher majority of the TV. If they vote in favor the numbers could go up to 147. a big breather for TVK government for chief minister Vijay to be able to promise uh some stable government for Tamil Nadu instead of depending on the DMK allies who are just two in addition to the required number as things stand now the TV alone has 119 MLAs which is just two above the majority mark if the 30 rebel MLAs vote in favor >> I just need to bring a small clarification there Shiv and Sam that what you need in The floor of the house is a simple majority. So 118 is the absolute majority. If let's say 30 MLAs abstain from voting then the automatic number comes down. So the TVK even at its present stage with any kind of abstensions in the DMK abstorical and clear majority. So what he needs is a simple majority which means of a majority amongst those present and voting in the house and not an absolute majority which is 118 uh which is in the total strength of the house. No, that's an important clarification and I want to bring Vijay Gopal Burlaran also in our colleague who's also outside the Tamil Nadu assembly and we just saw those pictures that Sam and Vijay sent us of the MLAs arriving by uh by bus. So they'll be inside the assembly very shortly. Uh Vijay the the floor test begins in about 20 minutes from now according to the schedule we have. How long does this typically last? How long will this entire floor test process last? So our viewers can understand that >> shift first uh ruling government MLA will move the floor test motion. Speaker will accept that and Tamil Nadu chief minister C. Joseph Vujay will deliver address on do under floor test and again uh speaker will allow one person from opportion party also to speak on the flow test and any representative either it behal or some of the or some some senior >> Vijay we're going to fix your audio we'll come right back there's a problem with your microphone we'll come right back to your audio in just a moment VA before we go to our guests and I want to you know put our put the numbers on the wall as well so we can break it down very clearly for our viewers and they know exactly uh uh you know how the arithmetic will play out uh inside uh you know what's on EPS's mind this morning VA uh you know the the the the party has split that appears to be pretty clear what happens today in the assembly is going to be a a a signal as to what the condition of the uh EPS-led uh AIA DMK is what's going to be on his mind what will he be looking out for >> defeat destruction and no clarity on the road ahead That's what's on EPS's mind shift. I don't think he's got a clear road map ahead. I'm not sure he's going to be able to hold on to the two leaf symbol. Uh there are going to be factions which are pushing for the change. Let's not forget that the people pushing for this whether it is Veuani or CV Sham were the people who actually backed EPS to hold the party together after Jay Lalitha and hold on as chief minister in the state. Uh you know so in a sense I think it's a very very uncertain road ahead. I don't think he's got too much cards to play at the moment. He will just be hoping that the numbers are okay and that there it'll be a test of who's with EPS and who's not.

[00:10:15]But I think eventually uh he's he's in a very difficult situation in terms of a long-term strategy where he may have to end up learning to blow the whistle.

[00:10:23]>> So it's very interesting sha that it seems to be more of a test for the EITMK party than for Vijay. Although if Vijay exceeds expectations, it's going to be a big boost for the TV case, isn't it?

[00:10:34]We're also joined by Jadeshwaran who's a political analyst. We have RK Radha Krishnan, senior journalist joining us now. Thank you both of you for being part of this broadcast. RK to you first.

[00:10:43]What is it in for the DMK today? Because you know when that Tamil controversy broke out or when you know there was this whole controversy over astrologer being made the OST uh to Vijay uh the DMK seems to be less aggressive than the other parties like communist and BCK which are now technically part of the government. they're going to be uh you know they are supporting Vijay in this is the DMK playing it very cautiously because they know that people's mandate is with TVK they lapstain today they will be not so aggressive when it comes to these issues and wait for Vijay and TV to make a mistake before they really attack him in full force isn't it >> yeah uh thank you for the question Rosa and good morning viewers see obviously an opposition party has to do the role of an opposition party now what we see is the allies of the DMK who Now allies of the of Vijay's party the TVK are actually doing that role and the DMK is refusing to play play the role of the opposition party whether it is neat in on which Vijay has not said a single word on the need fiasco on the entrance examin examination fiasco which is much bigger than uh the OSD appointment or uh you know the Tamil the controversy we don't see a single peep from the DMK they have to press the government the state has to take a united stand against this whole issue of need But I I don't see anything happening from the B part of the DMK. Obviously DMK has seems to be abdicating its role as a serious opposition party in the first place. But then uh let me just say what will happen in the assembly. Of course uh sh and I have been in the assembly long back very long years back but the speaker will say just say that he'll read out the resolution and say this it will be a voice it'll get done in no time and and because the DMK has been rightly said will choose to abstain and the ADMK is in the state that it is in it is not going to be a problem it's an open and shut eye moment it'll be over in a jify >> very interesting so it will be over in a jiffy but the you know the the after effects of it uh uh is is perhaps what the talking points will really be not so much the procedure itself uh Mr. Mr. Jagishwan, what will you be looking out for in today's floor test?

[00:12:58]>> Hey Vijay will see through it. There could be no issues. As far as DMK is concerned, I would say Stalin he gave an interview saying we will not disturb Vijay for the next 6 months. Like every government we'll give we'll give him a harm period or something like that. We don't want to disturb him immediately because he's new to this governance. He is new to the assembly. Even most of his MLS and most of his ministers are new to this place and they don't want to do it immediately. they will they will slowly become the opposition they know when to attack they will they'll slowly do it they even Vijay wanted to have a friendly face with all the leaders of the other parties and that's why he was I think that's why he was there because when he took in the swearing in ceremony of CM he directly attacked both DMK and ADMK he kind of started on the wrong note and he wanted to fix it and I think that's why he went and met Stalin all the other all the other party leaders and DMK I think they they will started story they They not do it very aggressively because they know has got the people's mandate. They don't want to be on a wrong note.