TRUMP SENDS EXPLOSIVE WARNING TO XI JINPING AND CHINA!! 2026 | Larry C. Johnson

Added: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]said that the Chinese told Trump to go pound sand.

[00:00:03]>> [snorts] >> Why? Like how?

[00:00:07]Like in the meeting isn't in the meeting he came and asked for help on Iran they're like hey no. Yeah, they just he was whatever request he made of the Chinese the Chinese rejected it.

[00:00:19]Mhm.

[00:00:21]And all they gave him is these political compliments that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon the Strait of Hormuz should be open there should not be there should be freedom of passage.

[00:00:31]And I think they said they won't they won't militarily help according to Trump they won't military militarily help Iran is just empty words to give him something he can take to Mar-a-Lago.

[00:00:40]Yes, yeah that's that's a lie. Uh China's providing Iran with military assistance.

[00:00:45]>> Yeah, New York Times article came out today. Yeah, yeah.

[00:00:51]Mhm.

[00:00:56]Yeah.

[00:00:57]What do you make of that post?

[00:01:00]Well, what do you do when you're an insecure insecure person?

[00:01:04]You always you always hype.

[00:01:08]You know, that's what Trump's doing.

[00:01:10]He's just he's a very insecure person he has to make everything all you know, it's yeah it was Biden [snorts] that was bad he's great. He's the greatest of all time.

[00:01:19]So that's just for the OG's that hasn't read the post this is Trump just put out a post 10 minutes ago I think. He said cuz she indirectly said the US is a declining nation. I can't remember the exact quote maybe you remember you could tell us. And then what Trump just posted is like what what she meant was the US was a declining nation under Biden but is no longer a declining nation under Trump and even she's praised Trump and what he's done these 16 months. And another thing he said is that the and he started going through all the you know that all time high in the stock market etc. And he also says the the relationship with Venezuela thriving relationship and the military decimation of Iran quote to be continued in brackets. But then so that's Trump's response to the statement by Xi. Do you remember Xi's exact statement, what it was?

[00:02:02]Uh no. No, I don't.

[00:02:03]>> Mhm. But >> to find it.

[00:02:05]>> Look, look, it is [snorts] uh I think we talked about last time.

[00:02:09]Uh the Chinese sent all the signals that they consider the United States a second-rate nation.

[00:02:16]Uh they didn't tout it on the the they didn't put it on the front on the front headline, you know, the major headline that oh, Trump's coming to for talks.

[00:02:24]No, they focused on the relationship with Tajikistan, which, you know, the railroad that connects China to Iran passes through Tajikistan.

[00:02:33]And the sidebar story was only peripherally about Trump. It was more about all the international challenges that Xi is uh confronting uh on behalf of China.

[00:02:44]Uh the uh major websites uh in in China didn't say a thing about uh the visit. Uh the Iranian flags were still up 6 hours before Trump landed uh in China. So instead of putting US flags up, they were they had Iranian flags up.

[00:03:06]Um So it was and then the greeting at the airport.

[00:03:10]Uh Trump was met by, you know, the the second tier. He wasn't met by Xi.

[00:03:15]When Putin visited in 2024, Xi was there at the airport. In fact, when Kim Jong-un visited China, Xi was at the airport.

[00:03:24]So you got a lot of, you know, Trump apologists trying to say, "Oh, this this is they're just following protocol."

[00:03:30]Nonsense.

[00:03:32]Yeah, you follow you follow protocol for Bolivia.

[00:03:35]You follow protocol for Angola.

[00:03:39]You know, you follow protocol maybe for Cyprus.

[00:03:43]But if if you're dealing with someone who's important, you follow you you bring out the big guns. I didn't know he met I didn't know they met Putin at the at the tarmac.

[00:03:53]Yeah. Um Photographs. I had some people say, "Oh, that's not true." Just look at the photographs, for God's sake. You know, the trolls and bots that are out there is ridiculous.

[00:04:03]Um So, what do you make of the statement by um by the White House where he said the two sides agree that if the Strait of Hormuz that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy. She also made clear China's opposition to the militarization of the Strait of Hormuz and any effort to charge a toll for its use.

[00:04:23]And he expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China's dependence on the Strait in the future.

[00:04:29]Both Both countries agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Obviously, that last point is pretty pretty useless, but the points before that, buying American oil, and then saying that no one should charge a fee at the Strait of Hormuz, what's the point of these uh of these promises that she made to the US or these not promises but these statements that she made to the US?

[00:04:49]Well, allegedly that she made to the US.

[00:04:52]What Trump says and what she made to the US. This is the Trump White House trying to put lipstick on a pig and claim that it's Marilyn Monroe, okay?

[00:05:02]Uh it is uh um it's it's it's it's a sort of a desperate attempt to put the biggest, brightest shine on this. Yeah, I'm sure the Chinese said, "Yeah, we'd like the Strait of Hormuz open. You, the United States, need to lift your blockade."

[00:05:14]Because the only one that's preventing the Strait of Hormuz from operating right now uh is the United States. Now, uh Iran put through 70 ships today.

[00:05:24]70 ships that had met the Iranian conditions. 70 ships sailed out. Now, is the United States going to try to stop them? I doubt it. They don't have enough naval power to do so.

[00:05:33]I think they announced Let me just quickly check.

[00:05:36]But I think it they announced that there is um that 70 ships have gone through this week, I think. Let me check. Oh, no, so is that different to So, Iran says 30 ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz with its authorizations since Wednesday. So, last 2 days. That's the one That's the one you're referring to.

[00:05:49]Yeah. So, last 2 days were Chinese vessels among the first to transit under Tehran's new management protocols. Iran is framing this as a as proof it controls the strait. Chinese ships were prioritized. Do you think they charged a fee to the Chinese ships? Or do you think they charged all the fee all the ships fees except China? Yeah, probably all except China.

[00:06:08]Because China is also providing aid. And I'm sure Iran recognizes that, you know, [snorts] there's a there's a quid pro quo in that.

[00:06:16]So, instead of China said, "Okay, here you're going to have to pay us back for this." They offset it with the charges for going through the strait. But again, the United States is is is push pushing a false narrative that China is dependent on oil flows out of the Persian Gulf. Not true.

[00:06:36]Does it provide a a good supply of oil? Yes, but they've got alternatives. Remember, Brazil pumps as much as Iran, and Brazil has stepped up its supply of oil to China, as well as Russia has stepped up its supply of oil to China. And I don't know where Trump's getting that, you know, China's going to buy US oil. You know, US really doesn't have enough to export. It's running low It's running low on reserves. It's just, you know, the stead The increase that was taking place in price of oil, it's now dropped down about 10 cents in the United States.

[00:07:07]>> but I guess what I said So, you said that this is according to the White House. So, yeah, there's been no statements from any from the Foreign Ministry of China or any state media in China about no China no there should be no toll on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran shouldn't have a nuclear weapon, and about buying US oil. None of that came out of China. It's only coming out of the US. Just Well, the again, Iran should not have a nuclear weapon.

[00:07:29]Well, that's Iran's position.

[00:07:31]You know, so It's just crazy.

[00:07:35]>> the oil one the oil one didn't come out of China either. But is it possible that So, I I be surprised if the White House made a statement without the without the okay from China. Otherwise, China would just say no and embarrass them.

[00:07:46]>> Okay, why would you say that? I'll tell you. I'll tell you. So, I think what I think happened is China said you can say that. We won't say it. So, we can always deny it. We No one can say we claimed it. You could say that. We won't deny it. And they're giving him political capital because they couldn't give him anything else, which goes along with what you said. They told him to pound sand. So, they're not conceding on their support their military support to Iran.

[00:08:07]They're not saying they're going to support him in in opening the shadow home or or getting Iran to concede.

[00:08:12]Whatever it is, removing the toll booth from Iran. But what we can do is give you these political wins, which cost us nothing, cost Iran nothing, but you can go to your base and say, "Hey, we're winning. China's doing X, Y, Z." And if anything, that might even encourage Trump to go back and attack Iran militarily, which only works in a in China's interest. So, that's why they I think the only thing they gave him is some political capital for his MAGA base.

[00:08:34]Um I personally doubt it because the Chinese they have a clear sense of what their interests are.

[00:08:42]And and uh she made that very clear in his statements opening statements with Trump.

[00:08:46]You know, it's got to be one of uh uh one of mutual respect.

[00:08:51]And we got to we got to take this off of, you know, he cited uh the Thucydides trap.

[00:08:58]Now, Thucydides trap had its origin, I guess, with Graham Allison, a scholar who commented that uh with respect to the competition between uh Sparta and Athens that, you know, Sparta had been the established power, Athens was becoming a power and it ultimately led to a war between the two uh and it weakened both, but it weakened Sparta even more. Sparta's, you know, ceased really being a player.

[00:09:24]So, what uh what she is acknowledging is that the United States and and China are competitors and China is the rising power. And the United States is the declining power. And, you know, Trump can, you know, he can spin it that all that was Biden, but now look at the United States. Yeah, look at the United States.

[00:09:43]It's now added two trillion dollars additional debt in Trump's first 18 months in office.

[00:09:50]That makes us stronger?

[00:09:52]It's lost two wars.

[00:09:55]Well, it lost it failed to defeat the Houthis in the Red Sea.

[00:09:59]And then it has failed to defeat Iran.

[00:10:02]And in fact, the the immense damage that Trump claimed to have inflicted on Iran turns out not to be true according to the US intelligence community. Yeah. So, exactly show me exactly where the United States is stronger.

[00:10:16]It's its sanctions on previous sanctions on China led China to respond by say, "Okay, we'll buy soybeans from Brazil.

[00:10:24]Screw the American farmers." And oh yeah, no more rare earth minerals for you, which is what the United States absolutely must have without any alternative in order to build weapons that it wants to use against China.

[00:10:38]You know, China's holding the cards here. Trump Trump held no cards.

[00:10:43]Have you seen there is a there is a viral video going out. It's not the Lego one, but it's it's Trump at a table playing Uno with the with the Iranians.

[00:10:53]Oh, I've seen that. Yeah, it's hilarious cuz at the at the at the end the Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei plays the last Uno card.

[00:11:03]Which in Uno if once you run out of cards you win. And Trump's sitting there holding like eight cards going, "See, I hold all the cards."

[00:11:10]And Iran goes, "Yeah, and you lost."

[00:11:13]Was it Was it released Was that a video released by Iranian uh Oh, yeah. Yeah.

[00:11:18]Official Oh, really? Oh, yeah, they're They've got a I was talking to Ali Hashem earlier. They said, "My, they've got an incredible media machine and system they've built." Yeah, no, listen.

[00:11:27]Anyway, I know I I should have told him Larry Johnson's enjoying those videos.

[00:11:29]That way that's what he gets up for every morning. Yeah. Yeah, I What is it with his morning coffee? I give I give them credit. Uh of all the countries in the world, there's not a better There is not a country that does a better job of uh trolling, information ops, whatever, you know, whatever you want to call it.

[00:11:47]I mean, they they they kick the ass of Russia, of China, of the United States hands down. Not even close. I mean, then and and the con it's it's great content.

[00:11:57]It's well-done. Uh it's incredibly clever, and it's always got a biting sense of humor with it. And you know, that that really appeals to me.

[00:12:08]Um so, a few more things I wrote down.

[00:12:10]President Trump said she is a great friend of mine. They, as in China, have promised they won't send any military equipment to Iran.

[00:12:17]Um So, that's what that's useless. And then there's a statement by by China the not long after the White House statement. The The all they focus on is Taiwan. President Xi stressed that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations.

[00:12:32]If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.

[00:12:43]Taiwan independence and cross-strait peace are as irreconcilable irreconcilable as fire and water.

[00:12:51]Safeguarding peace and stability across two Taiwan straits is the biggest common is the biggest common denominator between China and the US. The US side must exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question.

[00:13:02]Wow, the US side must exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question.

[00:13:07]So, the only concessions that Trump could give is is relating to Taiwan. Correct.

[00:13:13]>> And I just don't think the establishment in the US would allow that to happen.

[00:13:17]Well, that's true. And uh plus there's a curt of course, you know, the the United States has been touting it's got this multi-billion-dollar weapons package with Taiwan.

[00:13:28]Except, you know, the problem Oh, yeah, we're we're going to give you the PAC-3 Patriot missile system.

[00:13:34]>> [snorts] >> How many How many are you producing right now? Oh, 55 a month, 60.

[00:13:40]How many are you going to give us? And at what time? Cuz, you know, the United States has basically exhausted its inventory.

[00:13:47]So, once the United States replenishes its inventory, Taiwan might get the stuff in 3, 4, 5 years. So, you know, it's [snorts] it's like selling somebody the Brooklyn Bridge.

[00:14:00]I'm looking at the statement by China, by the way. It doesn't even mention the word Iran.

[00:14:04]I don't hear nothing. Let me see if it mentions Hormuz.

[00:14:07]No.

[00:14:08]Yeah.

[00:14:09]Now, their their issue is Taiwan.

[00:14:11]Taiwan and the US sanctions that the the US put imposes on the Chinese and attempts to dictate to the Chinese how how they must conduct their government.

[00:14:21]You know, those are those are you know, sacred. Those are sovereign rights of China.

[00:14:26]>> Yeah, it doesn't mention Iran at all.

[00:14:29]Yeah, and that's that's why I think whatever I think the the pound sand reference that uh the Chinese uh told Trump uh according to a White House source is um it was it regarded Iran.

[00:14:46]Uh the United States wanted to get China to intervene to help bring basically bring Iran to heel. And you know, what China's doing with Russia is they're in the process of constructing this new strategic security architecture in the Persian Gulf, which basically expels the United States from the Persian Gulf.

[00:15:05]That's where this is headed.

[00:15:10]Yeah. Um so, how does it relate to what we're seeing in um in Iran now? What happens next day? We saw statements or reports on from Israeli media there's a a security meeting uh they're convening this weekend. Let me see what the reports are.

[00:15:26]And Channel 12 saying they're expecting war, can't use they're expecting war.

[00:15:30]And he's just preparing for war. The president canceled his trip to China to to the US due to unforeseen circumstances.

[00:15:36]So, are the war drums up and going again?

[00:15:40]Israeli president canceled his trip due to circumstances preventing the visit at this time.

[00:15:45]And the uh IDF will enter the maximum state of alert starting tomorrow when Trump >> leaves China. Yeah. I I the bet the bet I I wonder you know, for those who are into the poly market, bet place the bet. How many how long after Trump goes wheels up in Beijing headed back to the states does the order to launch an attack on Iran come?

[00:16:09]You know, so if I was if I was going to bet, I'd bet within 6 hours.

[00:16:14]You know.

[00:16:17]So, I You think it's imminent? Yeah, I I I think they're going to I think Trump is going to do it again.

[00:16:23]Uh but why?

[00:16:25]He's trapped. He he he's got He's caught in a trap.

[00:16:30]Uh [snorts] and the and the trap is he he either tries to go all in and and pull a rabbit out of the hat militarily, which is, you know, not going to happen in my judgment. Uh the Iranians are too strong and the and their defense is too solid.

[00:16:45]Uh or he's got to walk away. There's There's no in between path for him.

[00:16:50]And >> I just think walking away is still a better option. Like if he's got these political you know, the statements from Xi or the what the White House claims she said, he could use for his base to claim this is a win.

[00:17:01]Um and then so that's one. Number two is the Gulf is pressuring him too as well.

[00:17:06]According to one report, Saudi told Trump the war in Iran should be ended and the Strait of Hormuz should be opened citing quote immeasurable economic losses if the situation continues.

[00:17:15]Also, the Saudi again as well tonight has discussed the idea of a non-aggression pact between Middle East states and Iran as part of talks with allies on how to manage regional tensions. So, they're talking about a pact in the region Mhm. which includes Iran to avoid aggression, which is in preparation for, you know, once the American military presence is scaled back. They have to figure out what to do with that neighbor up north that's wounded and pretty upset at what just happened.

[00:17:40]Um and based on the report again Saudi, which would have the most influence in the region >> on Trump telling him pretty directly according to this report, and I've seen other similar reports, they can't afford for the war to continue.

[00:17:52]Well, that's true. I mean, economically it is it's uh going to be killing the US economy. The I understand that Walmart and Costco uh were advised by Shell and Mobile Oil that they've got no more product to deliver to them. So, they sell motor oil for, you know, people do their own individual oil changes on their cars.

[00:18:18]There's those shelves are going to be empty within a week uh reportedly.

[00:18:22]So, if that report is true um the the shortage of sulfur has damaged um industry Mosaic Mining Company.

[00:18:33]Uh they reported a first quarter loss of almost uh $400 million. So, So, you know, the the economic damage to the West, to Europe it it with each passing day it's going to keep piling up. This this isn't going away anytime soon.

[00:18:48]Russia and China are negotiating with Turk Turkeya and Saudis and Qataris and Iran to for to install a new security architecture.

[00:19:01]And the indications right now is that the Saudis and Qataris are going to going to follow accept that, which means they're going to push the US bases out of their countries.

[00:19:11]So, the US is already de facto been forced out of many places.

[00:19:17]Uh and [snorts] and this is this is going to confront the UAE with a real dilemma.

[00:19:22]Uh are they going to stick with the losing side or are they going to sign up with the winners?

[00:19:26]Uh but uh because right now Iran Iran is willing to let ships pass, but they've they've got to >> they said that today. They said that today. Hold on. They said today Iran's foreign minister Zarif said the Strait of Hormuz is open for anyone that isn't an enemy of Iran. You just need to pay the tolls. Yeah.

[00:19:42]Yeah, very simple.

[00:19:43]Um and and and and the tolls are a consequence of the uh attack of Israel and the United States on Iran.

[00:19:50]Um so, you know, the Iran's saying, "Hey, be our friend.

[00:19:55]You you you you you you can haul uh all the oil and uh urea and sulfur uh and helium out that you want and liquid natural gas.

[00:20:05]Uh but but then there's the also the other issue. We don't have a full assessment of how much damage has actually been done to the various the infrastructure in each of those Gulf Arab countries as a result of the war in the first 5 weeks.

[00:20:19]Uh reportedly the damage that Qatar suffered to its uh LNG its oil plant uh Ras Laffan the gas field Yeah, the gas field is quite quite severe.

[00:20:29]So, it may be it may be uh a a year or more before that even comes back online. So, the world's still going to be dealing even if the war ends tomorrow and they say, "Okay, all's done."

[00:20:40]Uh the world's going to be suffering, but again, right now, who's the one that's blockading, preventing other ships from moving? It's the United States. And it's not because they're actually physically able to do it, just the threat that they're presenting leads the insurance companies say, "Okay, we're not going to we're not going to insure that. Forget about that."

[00:21:00]Um I'm going to give you this take and let me know what you think.

[00:21:04]Buried in the Trump-Xi White House statement, China agreed to buy more American oil. That's assuming the claim by the Whitehouse is true and that the US even has oil to supply China. That's a different discussion cuz I think that from what I understand and correct me if I'm wrong, the US is a net importer of crude oil, net exporter of refined oil.

[00:21:20]So, with petroleum products. Right. But even that not that massive an exporter.

[00:21:24]It's a massive exporter of gas, but oil not so much.

[00:21:27]Um and again, net importer of crude oil from what I understand. Am I correct in saying that? Is that right?

[00:21:32]>> Well, that's that's my understanding and but it's gotten worse. It's It's been uh exacerbated over the course of the last 11 weeks since the start of uh this war.

[00:21:42]Because the price of West Texas Intermediate has been artificially suppressed.

[00:21:49]And what and so the the the spot market, the future market price is about, you know, 40 to 60 dollars different from what you're actually going to pay when you offload it from the ship. And so as a result, people are buying the West Texas. And so the United States is actually exporting more than it originally intended. It may get to the point the United States is going to have to import impose some export controls.

[00:22:15]So, it's not it's not sitting on this, you know, huge reservoir of oil or refined petroleum ready to export. It There There are limits there. And so, you know, if if China bought anything, it'd just be a token gesture.

[00:22:30]You know, >> [snorts] >> just like just like the kid Well, I was just going to say just like the kid that's selling cookies, you know, door-to-door. You know, like they used to make him happy.

[00:22:39]>> [laughter] >> You buy some a box, you buy the cookies.

[00:22:40]Okay, go away, kid. Leave me alone.

[00:22:43]Uh so, I'll give you this thesis. If this true, China gets 40% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. It just agreed to source more from the US instead. Either China expects expects the strait to stay closed or they've been told Gulf energy infrastructure is about to get hit.

[00:22:58]Iran has already threatened to strike Gulf energy facilities if its own are targeted. The US has confirmed that's on the table. So, the Trump may have just told she the war is continuing and offered American oil as the trade-off for China staying out of it. So, the argument here is that Trump went there.

[00:23:14]Either he told him the war is going to continue or that he come to some agreement that they concluded the war will continue. And she is like, "Yeah, but I need an issue on this oil. If not, I'm going to do X, Y, Z." And Trump is like, "All right, we'll give you oil.

[00:23:26]But let us do our war in in Iran. Let us do our thing in Iran." So, the argument is that the US supplying oil to China or China agreeing to buy US oil is the more of a preparation for an inevitable conflict that will continue causing havoc in the in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which China depends on, not the US. So, this is more of it like a gesture for the US in return for something from China. Maybe less support for Iran or some other concession on the Chinese side. That's one of the theories.

[00:23:54]Yeah, see the the um I I I don't want to take credit for his work. Kevin Kevin Walmsley, who has a a channel on YouTube called Inside China Business.

[00:24:05]Uh he he he he posted a video 2 3 days ago.

[00:24:10]It's called China's oil resilience amid global shock. Experts caught off guard again.

[00:24:17]And so, what it points out is that said Western analysts, you know, they widely expected that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and US sanctions against actions against the Venezuelan oil flows would starve China of discounted crude.

[00:24:29]And force them into painful consumption cuts. Send you know, global prices even higher.

[00:24:35]And for thinking that Beijing was going to be scrambling around looking for oil.

[00:24:38]Uh uh but uh China's oil majors the I mean, the oil producers in China are currently net sellers of crude in both Europe and Asian markets.

[00:24:51]So, inventories inside China, they're not being drawn down.

[00:24:54]And domestic demand has not collapsed.

[00:24:57]Uh but Beijing has not issued emergency conservation orders or slashed industrial output. You know, the which moves that both Asian economies and European economies have taken.

[00:25:08]So um part of part of the way that Brazil insulated that India insulated India China got got too many countries running You went all the way through through the entire BRICS, Larry. Yeah, that was so because BRICS is involved with this. So, China has been diversifying through its Belt and Road Initiative.

[00:25:27]Uh so, uh the example Africa's largest refinery is built by Chinese engineers in Nigeria.

[00:25:34]And so China has expanded its oil ties with Brazil. Then you've got record Brazilian oil exports to China which offset anything that you know, anything they lost from Venezuela.

[00:25:46]And then uh they they've got uh they've got long-term contracts with producers in Latin America, Central Asia, and Middle East that don't depend on going through the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:25:59]Plus, they did strategic stockpiling. So they've actually you know, the United States is they've they've got a false assumption.

[00:26:08]They they decided oh yeah, China China would they look on some of the paper without really doing the expanded analysis. What are Did China have any alternatives? And the answer to that is absolutely yes. Not counting that they've expanded the the receipt of oil from Russia.

[00:26:25]So, if the if the Strait of Hormuz So, if the theory going back by that theory Yeah.

[00:26:30]>> if Trump decided to continue the war, that means the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for longer and the Gulf will be hit hard because Iran would retaliate as we've discussed by striking Gulf energy infrastructure. Well >> So Yeah, let me let me caveat that.

[00:26:43]>> Yeah, go ahead. Only if those countries allow their territory to be used by the United States to launch strikes or they allow US overflight.

[00:26:52]If Donald Trump think I don't think the US would attack if they if they don't allow them. The US doesn't have the Not having access to their bases in the region makes the war pretty much impossible.

[00:27:01]Now.

[00:27:01]>> It sure makes it difficult. That's that's for certain. They would They would have to rely upon a number of KC-135 air refuelers that would fly over Saudi Arabia and the the western edge of the Persian Gulf. Because any any KC Take an F-35, it has a combat radius of like 550 miles. Well, if it takes off from Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan, that trip just to Riyadh is 800 miles.

[00:27:33]They they can only go 550. So, they'd have to be refueled somewhere west, you know, like 300 miles west of Riyadh. And then they'd still have another, you know, 350 miles to get to the Persian Gulf.

[00:27:48]Which right away they're already, you know, so you're you're looking at a massive logistics problem if they don't launch out of places like Al Dhafra in 08 UAE or Al Udeid in Qatar or Prince Sultan airbase in in Riyadh.

[00:28:07]Um I want to ask you a question on Taiwan. Yeah.

[00:28:11]What does that mean for Taiwan? Could could Iran Could Iran have been used as leverage by China to get concessions on Taiwan?

[00:28:20]There's that big arms deal that you were talking about that will take a long time to deliver. But obviously China doesn't want to keep seeing those arms delivered to Taiwan.

[00:28:27]And that military build-up in the South China Sea.

[00:28:29]So, might have have been might have might have we have seen a a concession happen in these negotiations between the two Mhm. where Iran concedes on China concedes on Iran and the US concedes on Taiwan. Well, actually I think the Chinese have probably revised some of their analysis.

[00:28:47]They now realize that the United States has depleted its stocks of critical weapon systems.

[00:28:52]Weapon systems that it's offering to sell to Taiwan.

[00:28:56]So, once again, the United States is offering to sell something it does not have.

[00:29:00]That's the critical point to understand.

[00:29:03]And I think the Chinese understand that.

[00:29:05]And furthermore, China recognizes that if the United States renews its attacks on Iran, it's going to use up even more of these already scarce uh weapon systems.

[00:29:18]So, from China's standpoint, that's all the better.

[00:29:21]So, that means the threat to make arms sales to Taiwan is a bit of a red herring. It's It's a threat that does not actually is not backed up by a lot of punch.

[00:29:32]So, um you know, I don't I don't think China feels that it's under any pressure pressure to make that kind of deal.

[00:29:39]There's always um There's cuz the the the the reports are mainly for Thuds and Patriots, some Tomahawks as well. But JDAMs um and other bombs, the Hellfire missiles and others, those Bless you.

[00:29:53]>> have not been depleted. Thank you. Have not been depleted. Um Yeah, but the >> shells, etc. You understand the J JDAMs are basically useless in that kind of conflict. They've got about a 50-mi limit. You can drop them and they'll they can go about a 50 mi.

[00:30:08]Well, that's that's going to put any plane that's trying to drop that on China well within range of Chinese air defense systems.

[00:30:15]So, you know, that that's sort of a meaningless threat.

[00:30:18]>> I'm saying but there's still you know, I would I would say obviously everything is very depleted, but in terms of capacity, especially in the last next couple of years as they continue building their military arsenal, not at the speed of China, but there's still going to be something there. And you know, if if the [snorts] US decides, they could still cause a headache depending who you are. Some say US would win in a war Actually, most people say when they war game the war with China, even during someone that that wasn't Taiwan, Admiral Montgomery, he wasn't Taiwan. I think he war gamed it.

[00:30:47]I It was classified what the conclusion was, but according to other people that have war gamed it, and I think this is public knowledge, um China won through all the sessions in war game against um against China but US against China when it comes to Taiwan. But it will still cause more damage to China. It will make it harder to reunify if China decides to do it militarily. So, is there no possibility that that would have been used as a leverage card? So, couldn't have gotten concessions from the US in return for Iran? No, because because China's China's already got uh they don't have to uh imagine or theorize.

[00:31:22]They've now got two examples, real-world military action by the United States in the last uh 12 months that definitively show the limitations of the United States in dealing with land-based defenses.

[00:31:39]The first was the Houthis in in the Red Sea.

[00:31:43]And that, you know, remember go back and pull up what what the Trump administration and you know, this knucklehead Hegseth were saying when they launched Operation Rough Rider in uh early May in early March of uh 2025.

[00:31:57]We're not like that Biden administration, those bunch of wimps.

[00:32:01]They they they were afraid, etc. So, we're going to show these Houthis who's boss.

[00:32:07]And so, in in in the previous uh I guess uh let's see, 12 or like 14 months, uh the Houthis had shot down on average one Reaper Predator, you know, Predator MQ-9 Reaper drone uh one a month.

[00:32:25]When uh Trump started Operation Rough Rider, the Houthis were shooting down one a week.

[00:32:31]Then we got news today that uh roughly 1/3 of the entire US MQ-9 Reaper inventory has been exhausted. It's so They've they've only got 2/3 left, and they're using some of it over Cuba right now.

[00:32:48]>> So, and then China saw what the United States did because again the attack of the United States on on Iran is very similar to what the United States would have to do against China.

[00:33:03]Only one big difference.

[00:33:05]Uh they would be dependent upon air bases in Taiwan only. There were there were no other air bases or possibly Japan. So, they'd be looking at launching attacks from Japan, Okinawa, and and Taiwan. Well, right away China's got a far larger missile force, far larger drone force than [snorts] the United than Iran. You know, they dwarf Iran just by virtue of their productive capability.

[00:33:34]Uh and the US ships, as is the case with Iran, would have to stay well offshore.

[00:33:40]So, again, it's just it would be relying upon air strikes.

[00:33:45]And now with the with they don't have [snorts] the JASSMs, and they'd be good enough for maybe one or two rounds of JASSM and Tomahawks, and then they're done.

[00:33:53]Plus, China's far larger.

[00:33:56]I mean, for God's sake, you you've got you've got far larger territory to cover to try to make China uh you know, somehow weaken.

[00:34:05]And they're forgetting that the Chinese get to fire back.

[00:34:08]And so, this this is a war that would expand, and within that, Russia's going to have China's back as well.

[00:34:15]So, I get this this talk of the United States I think the Chinese have stopped taking the US threat seriously cuz the the US does not have the muscle to pull it off.

[00:34:26]Well, there's I think it's New York Times did a report on the sentiment in China about that meeting. Mhm. China's nationalist and state-linked voices increasingly see Donald Trump as accelerating US decline and unintentionally helping China rise.

[00:34:41]These are some of the points. One, Chinese commentators argue Trump's tariffs, a tax on allies, anti-immigration stance, and political chaos weakened America more than China.

[00:34:52]A Beijing think tank tied to Renmin University of China released a report titled "Thank Trump" calling him an accelerator of American political decay.

[00:35:03]The report claimed Trump unified China internally and pushed it towards greater self-reliance against Western pressure.

[00:35:10]Chinese discourse increasingly frames the US as a declining empire with references to the American decline sharply increasing in official Chinese messaging.

[00:35:18]Chinese media uses examples like mass shootings, polarization, homelessness, and inequality as proof of Western democracy failing.

[00:35:27]Some Chinese families now see America as unstable and less attractive for education. One consultant said the US interest that said US interest among his students dropped from over 80% a decade ago to around 45%. Wow.

[00:35:42]Chinese analysts believe Trump's more transactional approach creates opportunities for Beijing to extract concessions.

[00:35:50]Some Chinese scholars argue Trump may eventually seek compromise with China, especially if Republican lose political ground domestically.

[00:35:58]The piece argues many in China now see Trump not not as containing China, but as speeding up the geopolitical shift from US dominance towards a more China-centered multipolar world.

[00:36:08]Yeah, [snorts] well, and and let's go on with you know, indicators of who's progressing, who's growing, and who's declining.

[00:36:17]Uh right now, uh the the top 20 engineering schools in the in the world, the United States, its top school MIT is ranked 13th.

[00:36:28]Chinese dominate the top 10.

[00:36:31]Uh yes, that's number one.

[00:36:33]Uh then they they came out with a a study uh yesterday of uh reading proficiency in the United States.

[00:36:42]Uh so the average score in the United States has declined five points since 2019.

[00:36:49]Uh so 30 30 31% uh uh uh you know, are are not considered proficient in reading.

[00:36:59]40% 40% below the basic level.

[00:37:03]So you know, what you're looking at is the United States on an educational basis is we're going backwards. It's not increasing.

[00:37:12]Uh it is uh in China and Chinese students increasingly they're they're turning to Chinese universities.

[00:37:18]Cuz frankly, the Chinese universities are excelling over the US universities.

[00:37:23]Uh you know, the adult literacy in the United States is is is appalling. So right now, an estimated 54% of adults read at the sixth grade level or lower.

[00:37:39]Now you know, it's one thing I guess when I was in sixth grade I read Catcher in the Rye.

[00:37:46]But I I was considered, you know, an advanced reader.

[00:37:49]But uh when you're you still don't have critical thinking skills well developed for sixth grade level Uh so whereas in China uh their literacy rate is almost universal.

[00:38:03]United States has has fallen way down.

[00:38:06]So the the Chinese they're not they're not making propaganda. They're actually objectively reporting on the facts.

[00:38:15]That pick pick whatever measure you want of uh crime uh childhood poverty uh literacy uh graduates from high school, uh, STEM graduates.

[00:38:29]United States is lagging in all of those.

[00:38:32]>> [snorts] >> I thought on the schooling side, the US still dominated the top 20 schools. I'd be surprised on the Like, I understand the literacy dropping and and the school scores I haven't looked into, but I saw them dropping.

[00:38:42]But I would In my view, still the the American and British schools would still be and European schools would still be there.

[00:38:48]>> run a quick I I haven't run this run a quick query. Just ask what are the what are considered the top 10 universities in the world.

[00:38:55]I'll do it now. What do you want me to use? Grok or another one? Yeah, no, yeah, Grok's fine.

[00:39:01]I'll do it now.

[00:39:01]>> Grok's one of the better ones.

[00:39:04]By the way, do you um um another quick thing I'll ask you while I do this. On the um I'll do it now. On the Cuban side, um I'll ask you that question. There's been a report that CIA Director Ratcliffe visited Havana to deliver a message from the US president to Cuban officials that the US is prepared to seriously engage with them on economic and security issues should they agree to fundamentally change. A CIA official reports Ratcliffe met with uh the Minister of Interior and others including the head of Cuban intelligence.

[00:39:34]Um quote, "During the meeting, Director Ratcliffe and Cuban officials discussed intelligence cooperation, economic stability, and securing security issues all against the backdrop that Cuba can no longer be safe haven for adversaries in the Western Hemisphere."

[00:39:47]Um obviously Cuba's not Iran, so Cuba can't do much What against What what what adversaries might those be?

[00:39:53]Obviously, that's just an excuse, yeah.

[00:39:55]I'm not going to even debate that. I can't even play devil's advocate for this.

[00:39:59]>> [laughter] >> But um But what do you expect to happen in Cuba? Cuz that's something I don't know much about at all. I know a lot more about the Middle East than Cuba.

[00:40:06]Well, you know, obviously the United States uh militarily outmatches, you know, it has superiority over Cuba.

[00:40:15]But what are they going to do? He's going to land troops. If If the United States decides to land troops and try to occupy Cuba, it's going to face a guerrilla force, a guerrilla insurgent force that will be ambushing and killing Americans.

[00:40:27]So, they got to step back and say, "Okay, what is you know, what's the bottom line here?"

[00:40:32]Uh Cuba wants to remain sovereign.

[00:40:35]Uh it has uh you know, it's not the kind of dependent relationship it had with the Soviet Union. I mean, when the Soviet Union collapsed, China was uh you know, Cuba was in trouble.

[00:40:45]But But, the reason Cuba has been unable to prosper economically is because of US sanctions.

[00:40:51]And unfortunately for Cubans, you know, they got cigars, they got rum, they got bananas, they got sugarcane. That's about it. And they've got the beautiful beaches. But, you know, they're not the they're not the only country country in the Caribbean with beautiful beaches.

[00:41:05]Uh their their only advantage is they're closer to the United States. So, people that want to go have a you know, sort of a a Latino experience uh for vacation, you know, they could make a hop and a jump to Cuba.

[00:41:18]So, it's not clear what the what what the United States wants other than we want to we want to control who who is president in Cuba, so he'll do what the United States tells him to do.

[00:41:28]Cuba Cuba really is is it's not it strategically it doesn't gain you anything other than bragging rights.

[00:41:34]>> Yeah.

[00:41:37]Yeah.

[00:41:38]Blackjack would enjoy Cuba.

[00:41:40]Yeah, he just walked in he just walked in the office.

[00:41:44]Um I'll give you some hopeful news that still the top schools are American and British. Um the Chinese entered the top 20 list in 2021 first time top 15 in 2021 and top in 2023. So, we still have hope there.

[00:42:00]Um British is number two.

[00:42:02]>> that those uh Yeah, I don't know what the sources of that one. Yeah, the those numbers will rapidly reverse in the coming four years.

[00:42:10]Just like the banking one. Yeah, just like the banks. You know, one of the things it used to be for Chinese elite they wanted their kids to go to Harvard, to Caltech, to Berkeley, to, you know, Princeton, Yale, those kinds of places.

[00:42:27]But increasingly in China, those it's there's a stigma attached to it now.

[00:42:32]Yeah, with the numbers I just mentioned according to Chinese media, went down from 80-something to 40% of Chinese students that are 80-something to 45 that are looking at going to to the US.

[00:42:42]Yeah.

[00:42:43]Yeah, so and and basically Chinese students with US education they're actually being discriminated against in China.

[00:42:53]They don't automatically get the, you know, the best job offers. A lot of that's been reserved for Chinese kids who went to some of the better schools in in China.

[00:43:05]So, as I said, this is this is this is what comes when you have a declining state, both a declining nation, which is the UK and the United States and Europe for that matter, and and a rising, you know, the dynamics that are present in China are just off the charts. Again, how many