Will Keralam Conundrum Hurt Congress? | Who Will Be The Next CM | Kerala Politics | Plain Speak

追加: 2026-05-11

[00:00:04]Welcome everyone. Thanks a lot for staying with us. You're watching Plain Speak with me Shivani Gupta. In the recent elections, only two out of five governments were voted back to power.

[00:00:14]Both are incidentally NDA or BJP governments. In the rest of the three key states, the incumbent strong regional players were booted out from the left to the TMC to the DMK. So writings on the wall, perform or perish.

[00:00:28]and performative opposition also doesn't work beyond a point. Even then the Congress instead of seizing on its opportunity to form a government in Keralum is now seen embroiled in the same kind of flux and internal fight that have marred many other states where Congress was voted in. Is the Congress then making the same mistake that has hurt it and its image in other states and in fact has festered disgruntlement to such an extent that many talented leaders left the party. So we are witness to the same conundrum for party now in Keralum. It is just a simp not not just a simple problem of plenty. It is also a history of tormented decision-m that ends up creating more problems than solutions. Neither Casey Veno Gopal nor Via Sati Singh are willing to back down creating a showdown of sorts on ground even as the K party high command seeks to take a decision very soon. In fact, we are being told the decision is expected very soon, but there is no consensus just yet. MLA elect and senior congress leader K Muridan has been called to Delhi. Now we are told that Congress high command will seek opinion of former KPCC presidents like him. But how long can this go on?

[00:01:41]And is the comparison with how BJP took time to appoint a chief minister in Delhi accurate? After all, Delhi BJP had no clear CM claimments unlike Congress in Keralum that had someone who led the campaign on the ground. So is this problem purely of the making of the Congress party itself? But first up take a look at the Congress playbook on how they appoint chief ministers after wins that is now under scanner and has this method caused more problems than solutions. So first up the leadership which is the central leadership other word for Gandhis the decision rests with them often creating resentment on ground. Loyalty is favored above all else which is not a problem but faces trusted by Gandhis usually get a leg up that also causes problems on ground.

[00:02:29]Experience is also given more weightage than ambition from the young guns and that has led to severe problems and high-profile exits in the past. Cast, rigid, fractional equations also drive the choice. But while party aims for outward consensus, often the bickering continues in the background leading to severe severe issues for the party that have often been pretty costly. So where do things stand currently in Keralum? On one side is of course Casey Benugopal who is reportedly being batched by more MLAs. He was the one who actually handed out the ticket. So not surprising. He's also a Gandhi family loyalist trusted by uh the Gandhis of course. On the other hand is Vidi Satishan. He has a stronger connect amongst the Carter and was consistently the preferred CM phase during elections in survey after survey.

[00:03:23]So is this choice difficult or is this one that should really be a no-brainer?

[00:03:28]But I also want to break down how this CM conundrum has been a pattern of crisis in state after state. Of course, who can forget Karnataka? It's an ongoing tussle between Sudar Ramay and DK Shifkumar after an alleged rotational CM deal in 2023 hasn't come to an end and continues to put governance on the back burner. In Madhya Pradesh, intense battle between Kamal Nat at the time and Jotira Cindy led to the latter's exit toppling the Congress government in Madhya Pradesh and it hasn't managed to really recover from that. Punjab the power tussle between captain Amarindra Singh Navjot Singh Siddhu but the Congress leadership imposed Charanjit Singh Chundi instead asked the chief minister remember Singh left the party then itself and Navjot Singh Siddhu's relationship has also tanked with the Congress Rajasthan the power tussle between Ashokot and Sachin pilot led to a virtual Congress implosion although in this state they managed to keep him back and the party wasn't split. Chhattiskar CM Besh Bhagel of the time and TS Singh duo were battling for the top post.

[00:04:32]Again it was the same Karnataka drama that rotational CM CM ship had been proposed and had been promised but there was no uh resolution in the end till the government was booted out of power. So the question we asked today is this going by past examples can the Kolin conundrum also end up hurting the Congress party? Will they be able to decide in a way that does not fester resentment on ground given what is happening? That's coming up with our guests.

[00:05:28]See that type of that type of uh agitations should be avoided the clearcut direction given by Congress at any time it will decided by the Congress president as early as possible.

[00:05:46]Carol Let's go across to our guests joining us. First up, I want to go across to Kalikur Raman, political analyst, leans towards the Congress and also Rashid Kiddai, senior journalist who tracks the Congress party very closely joining us.

[00:06:42]But Kalikur, I will begin with you.

[00:06:44]We've seen this drama play out in state after state. One would assume the Congress has learned its lessons, but what we're witnessing is exactly the opposite.

[00:06:54]Yeah, good evening Shivani and good evening to my co-panelist in and to all your viewers. I think uh let's not get confused because Congress is a granular party and Congress has a process to follow which it does in a very democratic manner. So Congress party believes in consultation, consensus and respecting the opinions and the views of the elected representatives and we are not a you know Congress is not a private limited company where you know the orders come from the top are maybe from one or two persons and then everybody falls in line out of fear but in Congress it doesn't happen. So no that's what let yeah it doesn't happen. So because leaders matter here the MLS matter their opinion their voice matter actually. So that's the reason. So the BJP you know going on saying that the Congress is delaying Congress is having the internal rift internal fighting and all. So I think first of all I want to tell the BJP that BJP should stop pretending to be the custodian of the political morality and the governance and if they're forgetting that how much time they have taken in case of Delhi they have taken uh you know I think the elections were results were announced on Feb 8 and they announced the name of the CM on Feb 19 they have taken it so here it's only about 6 days so >> no I get that I mentioned that example at the top because Romesh has also raised the same issue but it's not a comparable issue. First of all, Congress or the Gandhi have been unable to run the Congress the way you've described the BJP runs for uh for all its ills. Once a decision is made in the BJP for the last 15 years, we haven't seen a revolt break out. So that is also its strength. Yes, some people will be happy, some people will not be happy.

[00:08:42]They do their lobbying, but once a decision is made, frankly, nobody questions it. There have been no revolts, no exits unlike what the Congress party has suffered. So one, Congress is not the BJP here. Secondly, you can't compare it to Delhi. You can't say the Delhi BJP situation is what the Kerala Congress's situation is. Delhi BJP barely had any claimments to the chief ministers posed. The elections were not really led by any one phase. In Keralum, you have a person who led the elections from the front, the leader of opposition. So why uh you know then have this issue that you can't select who the chief minister is going to be. But uh I take that to Colonel S. Dini spokesperson of Keralum BJP also joining us. Is the BJP also you know kind of being clever by half by suggesting oh this is another one of their problems.

[00:09:29]It's barely been a week since the results have come out.

[00:09:33]>> Uh ma'am uh first and foremost we must understand that you know whatever is happening inside the Congress party it is their own business. uh you know how to sort out that issues and all we completely understand but here the question is not a you know uh the beauty of democracy taking shape you know discussions being taking shape no I think Mr. Rashid should come to Kerala and he will find that there every street in every city has a poster or a flex you know claiming support for these three leaders and not only that the not only that it is you know the the flexes are being destroyed by the other people there are you know black oil being thrown on the flex of you know rival parties so is this the beauty of democracy did you find any such thing happening in Delhi so please don't compare that it's a virtually short of a fullscale or on the street everything else is happening in Kerala. That is the first thing. Secondly, you know, uh the Kerala verdict was a clear verdict given by the people against the corrupt, arrogant and nepotismfilled governance of Mr. the pin region and this show which is the the congress has been doing for the last 6 days is a complete you know treas you know it's a betrayal of that mandate is what I say because the issue is ma'am as you mentioned in so many states this is happening you know it's not here only happening here the problem is the problem is once this thing happens before the you know the actual nomination of the CM imagine what will be what will be the state of the affairs after the CM has been nominated already Mr. Vidi Satish has said that in case he is not made the CM he will go. I don't know where he's going to go but he said he will just leave. Now do you know a person with so much of who led the campaign was the leader of opposition even there are people alliances who want him to be the CM. Now if he is not made then there will be turmoil in the state within the you know the party which is supposed to rule. And what we're witnessing instead is Congress leaders, even the high command, issuing dictats like, "Oh, don't make this ugly. Don't bring this to the street. Uh don't make appeals on in online or in public, you know, don't do this very open lobbying."

[00:11:40]But this is what happens state after state and it's somehow I don't know what you think Rashid Kiddwi has. Why is it that the Congress party is refusing to learn its lessons? This should have been clear because one uh I was in Kerala. It was quite clear that the UDF had a better than good chance to come to power. Uh they could have actually had a lot of these discussions not if not in the runup but then close to result day and now it's a week since then and I I don't think the needle has moved because neither of the two leaders in contention are willing to back off.

[00:12:17]So Shivani I think the Congress has developed a knack of making simple things look complex and this is a very glaring example as you're rightly pointing out during the you know runup to election it was very well known that the UDF uh will be winning so leadership issue could have been sorted then there is a back to basics kind of approach whatever mistakes the Congress made in in Karnataka earlier in Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Chhattisgarh here was a case where Rahul Gandhi and Mr. Karjun K would have put the record straight. It's a very simple thing. The stakeholders here are the MLAs, elected MLAs, not only of Congress Shivani but also of UDF. This the alliance partners are very important because the alliance partners are part of the government. It is alliance partner that have led to the UDF to victory. So in that context their opinion also matters on choice of uh of chief minister and there should have been a simple headcount. But now it's not too late to have a sort of you know open transparent manner headcount. Now here comes the riddle actually and since uh I follow Congress party closely. Now comes that Mr. Casey Wenu Gopal who is supposed to be a front runner. He has a undue advantage because he was a GSO general secretary in charge of organization and he was he had a say in selection of you know the PCC chief in >> Yes. the tickets exactly in Keralam plus plus of course the selection of candidates. So therefore Mr. sufficient who's a CLP leader his contention is that he's a man on the ground you know he's people's choice and this is so there is a complicated thing I think Rahul Gandhi Sonia Gandhi Malik K should have kept themselves away from this mess and not to offer any kind of solution because this is a political problem is a political problem what they did in Karnataka they made you know Sidamia chief minister they promised something to DK Shukum even today in Karnataka there is a disquite so I'm saying Congress must learn from it mistakes and have this back to basic approach where the MLAs should be in free and fair man.

[00:14:10]>> No, but you're saying the Gandhi should have kept themselves away. Then who would have decided how would this decision have been made?

[00:14:17]>> Because because there is a so there so that is where I'm saying there's a lot of I would say internal politics that come into play. There is a allegation nobody says it. Nobody would say it openly. There's the allegation that Mr. Casey Venu Gopal has engineered that kind of support of 43 because of the PCC chief supporting him and the because he had a saying ticket distribution there is some kind of quid proco remember he's a GSO so he has a heft within the Congress party regardless of that so therefore there is a complication so I think Rahul Gandhi is reluctant to make his man Friday who is Casey Venu Gopal as chief minister he should have that moral courage to either appoint Gopal or have someone else say that this is what people want >> you're referring to That image that went viral, isn't it? When the observers were sent to speak to the MLAs, there is a list of those MLAs that went viral very conveniently was facing the camera of journalists and they had a a list of MLAs at least on that page that was captured on camera. It was all Casey KC KC KC and one is wondering that is the undue advantage you're talking about.

[00:15:21]But Rashid Kadi, he could also turn around and say that if the MLA support him then what is the problem?

[00:15:28]So therefore you see the chief minister is not the person who who who should have the heft and the experience to run you know government for five years and there are alliance partners also as I said of the UDF IUML and other other constituents so therefore it's not just that you have numbers you should also have the ability this is a totally internal purely internal matter I think the reference you made that was also inspired league I know the Congress party Mr. It looked like one certainly it looked like an inspired league.

[00:15:55]You're right.

[00:15:57]>> So Mr. Mulvasting could not have done that. You see everybody knows if you have an important piece of paper you won't like you know you won't show it so that somebody can take a picture. It's very elementary. So this is all the wheel within wheels. I think the Congress may be out of power at the center but in palace entry 10 out of 10.

[00:16:14]>> We also have Mitun Vijay Kumar author and activist joining us. You know ultimately it's not just about who becomes the chief minister. It's also about how clean a break will it be. Uh because in other states we have seen such decisions have kind of festered.

[00:16:29]They have led to exit toppling of governments or even uh to the fact that you know Congress has never really re-energized enough when you have waring factions to win elections. Do you think something similar might play out in Keralum or this would be different?

[00:16:45]>> Yeah, I think something different might play out if the high command is forcing a candidate in Kerala. uh like we have seen the you know flex board wars uh congress's social media pages are divided now and their workers are trying to hijack a mandate that belongs to the people and like you said we have seen in many states there was a near 50/50 split in support but uh in Kerala uh you see you know like the the reports uh I think many of the Kerala channels were saying that KC has all the support of MLAs but I see today it was CNN or or some other national channel that released that you know Vision has clear majority of I mean of support from the MLAs. If the high command tries to use the Rajasthan formula here by forcing a compromise, they are basically choosing to fail. And the lesson from Rajasthan or you know other states, it's very simple. A delayed decision is a bad decision. And by dragging this out for these many days, the Congress is already repeating the mistake of you know looking weak and divided and uh >> but is there a potential that if the Congress high command was to go with Casey Venu Gopal because currently he is the one who's kind of been seen as an imposed choice not a direct choice by the public because he wasn't really the face of the campaign or of the opposition led by Congress during the elections. So if he was to be chosen, could this lead to festering problems in the Keralum unit? Already it is actually quite a divided house the Keralum Congress.

[00:18:08]>> See, we can already see the issues uh you know going on and uh see more than the you know split with in within the congress. Uh the the I mean selection of Casey Venopal will actually have to go through a series of bi-elections. If he becomes a CM we have a massive problem here. he has to you know resign first triggering a bi-election in Araura then another MLA would have to resign so he could take that seat so >> the Congress party at least sources tell us that that's not a concern for them and I think I kind of get that if it was a deserved choice then it's okay you can have a couple of bi-elections >> no if there is a bi-election I'm very sure that disgruntled groups inside Congress could easily ensure a downfall in a bi-election so why take that risk at this time >> Mr. Is that a risk that the Congress should not take especially when he's not really emerging as the man on the ground who won the Congress the election? Yes, he must may have been in charge. He may have been the one who decided candidates etc. But those people are not made CMS.

[00:19:08]>> See the Congress leadership is in fact weighing all the pros and cons. And there are two observers who were deputed there. They have in fact met all the melees and they have taken their opinions and then they have gone back to Delhi and they submitted their report and based on the report you know the Congress party will be picking up the you know the CM uh candidate and I think probably it should be done max in next 24 hours probably by this time we will have >> you know even report has not been sufficient I want to bring in Colonel Binie once again because if that report was sufficient and it was you know a transparent system whoever Whatever the uh so-called legislature party decided want they as the CM so be it. But even after that report, >> what more what more transparency want you have to >> I tell you what I tell you what has happened this this may be transparent enough had you not leaked quote unquote the decision of the MLAs because now the system has come under question but what has happened since then is the decision has not been made Colonel Bini now we are being told that former KPCC presidents from Keralum are being called to the national capital so that their views can also be taken now this just complicates the issue isn't it?

[00:20:20]Absolutely ma'am it's a kind of a sham which is happening here you know Mr. Quasig Vendu Kopal he is the high high command he's part of the high command till yesterday or five days before he was he was the part part of the high command he used to be you know the the inner circle taking the decisions now today they saying high command will tell now which other high command is there now my question is if Mr. Rahul Gandhi did not want Mr. Casey Vonugawal to fight for this would not a single word from Mr. Rahul Gandhi say okay you did not go let's you know fight let them you know sort that issue between Romesh Chanitala and vidi satishan will that not take place but the fact is the fact that Mr. Casey venual is actively you know projecting his case means that the highest you know power to be Mr. Mr. Rahul Gandhi and Mimi Sona Gandhi definitely also has been given a backing but the problem is that they are not able to realize the kind of backlash which is happening in Kerala and that is what is our worry you know already ma'am the history history tells us that UDF it's very difficult to complete five years as in in in within the UDF structure because each one will be pulling you know in different directions because of their vested interest now within the congress we have seen before uh you know let's take The example of Mr. Karnagaran when he was the CM it was within the party which brought out that ISRO fake case in Mr. Nambi Naran and was there and Mr. Karnagaran had to go it was not the opposition which brought that it was within the Congress party stalarts who had you know actually pulled the uh you know rug out of under the from Mr. Karnagaran. So these kind of things will happen in in Keralam and that is what is our worry which will have a direct bearing on the governance of of the of of the state that is our worry.

[00:22:04]>> No. So, so one is there are already examples where governance has suffered when any party in power gets embroiled with this back and forth and Congress has had several episodes. So that's not a great advertisement of you know being elected into power but Rashid Kvay do you genuinely believe that if Vidi Satisan is denied the opportunity to be the chief minister this could lead to serious complications for the Keralum unit.

[00:22:27]Well Shwani I don't think so. I think you know the party Congress party people are loyal to Congress party including those all those MLAs. The problem in Keralam is because and as you may have seen during the election that there actually the Congress organization is very vibrant. Every district president you know enjoys some kind of authority and command which is a good thing in party politics.

[00:22:48]>> There is a twist in the tail. Twist the tail is that because Mr. Casey Vin Gopal has been you know GSO general secretary in charge of organization since 19 uh since 2019. So there are lot of bad blood at the AIC center level everybody that I know of in the AIC they want Mr. Casey Vin Gopal to go to Kerala as chief minister whereas every almost everybody in Kerala including the most district congress president they don't want him.

[00:23:15]So this is a kind of tussle because people want to get so to say literally get rid of Mr. Benu Gopal from the Congress AIC from the central leadership so that they they you know they can occupy post and positions and all and authority and so that it becomes more democratic and in the and the state nobody wants it but the key point is that the congressmen are very loyal and as I said it's a UDF uh you know alliance government so a wider consultation is required and I think the action should have been in Tendrram rather than in Delhi.

[00:23:47]>> Yeah. No, I wasn't going to mention this, but this has been going around for quite some time and I think Khalikur Raman can respond to this. What an indictment.

[00:23:54]>> Very difficult job today.

[00:23:56]>> What a what an indictment of the way things have been running in the Congress that actually people are looking forward to as Rashid Kitwa said, not me. As Rashid Kitwai said, people in the central leadership are literally looking forward to sending Ku Casey Vuupal to the state so that they can breathe easy for no other reason. Not for his capabilities mind you just because they want him to go to the state from the center kura >> it's nothing like that it's nothing like that these are all the rumors in fact and I think the media is trying to flame it up I would say but otherwise there is nothing like that >> there's nothing like that okay m >> who do you think would be the best choice for the congress party and who would be the mistake because we've seen certain mistakes been made in the past >> see uh for me it doesn't matter who becomes a CM uh I think a mandate is a contract between the voter and the you know leader they see in front of them.

[00:24:49]So in 2026 the people of Kerala did not vote for a strategist who commanded from Delhi. They voted for the person who spent 5 years as the face of the opposition and WD sadishin was not just the leader. He was the one who was personally you know taking the hits. He led the walkouts convinced the public that UDF was a viable alternative. So uh you can always have the best strategy in the world but without a credible face on the ground to deliver it. All those seats would have remained a dream and uh you know even is a kingmaker here. They have 22 seats and they have hinted whom they are supporting. So with all that I think Sadishan should be the you know person to become CM.

[00:25:25]>> All right. Will it be him? We don't know but uh there are some last stage negotiations or consultations going on and it seems the decision could come soon maybe in 24 to 48 hours or 72 hours but certainly the Congress faces another issue where they don't want any kind of decision to now fester some problem on ground between its ranks. We'll wait and see if that is what they manage to do.

[00:25:49]Thanks a lot for our guests for joining.