California Weather: Thunderstorms, Fire Danger and Fantasy Forecast!

[00:00:00]Hey everybody, Michael Snyder, California weather watch. Today is June 19th and right now we are looking at the visible satellite imagery and we have active thunderstorms ongoing across portions of Northern California. And if I scroll back in time a little bit, you see we have basically had them a lot of last night as well. Looks like yeah, pretty continuous there. We'll back up all the way towards the sunset yesterday. You can see that cluster move just to the west of Lake Tahoe. Again, several thunderstorms ongoing at sunset last night and it went through the overnight hours. We're starting to feel the influence of this weak troughing here along the west coast North America helping kick off some of those thunderstorms. And here we go back out through today. So, we do have more thunderstorm potential here over the next couple of days. And some of these could be prolific lightning producers as you've seen and we could have some fire starts ongoing here of course especially in this region. So, we'll cover some of those details. We'll take a look at the extended forecast as always as we go through the video this morning. So, looking at the 6-day forecast on the European model as of last night. You kind of see the troughing here hanging out as we go through the day today. And then that trough is going to swing through and we're going to ramp up the temperatures again as we go through portions of next week. You can see the ridge getting established here down across Arizona and portions of Mexico and we'll be dealing with the effects of that ridge. But then we have the potential for a trough to come here towards the west coast of North America.

[00:01:22]More on that here in a moment. But in the short term, first things first, let me update that because this is actively running as we speak. The RRFS, high resolution model. This is what the Doppler may radar may look like here as we go through the day today. And as we scroll through the day today, you can see some of these thunderstorms. Some of these out here, especially just to the east of Lake Tahoe, out towards Reno and uh Fallon, uh some of the dry lake beds out there could be uh you know, fairly strong wind producers as well. and also having some of that dangerous lightning associated with that activity as we go on in through the day today and tonight that moves north up towards Oregon and Idaho. Then we're going to scroll through the day tomorrow and you can again see Northern California popping off some thunderstorms. It could be prolific lightning producers could start some fires out there as well. So yeah, something uh fun to watch here if you're, you know, maybe a lightning watcher, stormchaser there across portions of Northern California and Northern Nevada, no doubt. Now, this is kind of a rare thing here. dry thunderstorms scattered. So, what this means here is the brown is isolated, the purple is scattered, as I just mentioned, and this is the thunderstorm potential for starting new fire starters because so a lot of these thunderstorms aren't producing enough precipitation to really extinguish any fires that they may start. So, that's why they have that dry thunderstorm. This is the fire weather risk. And we do have some elevated fire risk here for portions of the Sierra Nevada all the way down through the desert areas, high deserts as well into Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.

[00:02:48]Now this is Sacramento National Weather Service. We have red flag warnings. This goes through tonight. Mix of wet and isolated dry thunderstorms with abundant lightning. Lightning outside the main precipitation core. 20 to 40% chance thunderstorms, gusty outflow winds to 40 m hour. So again, these fires can spread quite rapidly, especially when you get some of these gusty outflow winds if you're in the vicinity of some of these thunderstorms. And uh Sacramento kind of showing you here the gradual warmup for reading an example. 85 today to 102 on Monday. Sacramento going from low 80s to mid 90s. So yeah, check it out. Now Eureka National Weather Service talking about it as well. You can see Scott Bar right there. WA happy cap. Again, the potential for these uh lightning induced fire starts there and they may spread rapidly. So red flag warning. Now you can see the the severe prediction center has um a wind threat with some of these thunderstorms here. So that's why they do have that marginal for some severe thunderstorm activity and that would be the general risk there in the lighter green today. So significant heat up Los Angeles talking about warming up. You see I mean nothing too extreme coming up here but we do ramp up the temperatures.

[00:03:56]Pasadena going from 75 to 88 and Lancaster for example 88 to 101 and you can kind of pick out your region there.

[00:04:04]So it is a bit of a warmup. It's nothing too extreme though. And we take a look out across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

[00:04:10]Nothing going on right now. We'll continue to watch this because later on in the season, some of these storms that do form have better chances of trying to move up across Baja, Gulf of California, and up towards California, Arizona, and Nevada. So, that's something we will be watching on through the next few months.

[00:04:25]So, daily 2meter max temperature you'll see today, tomorrow, there's Sunday, Monday. You can kind of see the warm up here across much of the area. the great valley getting up towards 100 degrees for several locations. Again, warming up across Southern California, maybe 115 plus there in Death Valley. Very warm out here in some of the desert areas.

[00:04:44]San Bernardino County and up over 105 degrees for many locations as well.

[00:04:48]Here's Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday. And then you kind of see a slight cool down coming as we go towards the end of that. We may have a trough on the way and we're going to take a little bit of a look at that here now and kind of an extended fantasy forecast. So there's the troughing we're dealing with right now. And then we build that ridge and we ramp up the heat as we go through this week. Now the artificial intelligence has been pretty aggressive with this trough and that would cool us down here into the state of California as well and then maybe keeping a trough going here for us in the west coast of North America. I mean that looks pretty enticing. That would be pretty fun stuff there. But again, this is just one model here and we're looking way far off in the forecast. I mean you got to go out almost 200 or 170. There's 200 hours right about there before this really has big impacts on the state of California.

[00:05:35]So, we got to watch that. But, it's something fun to watch here over the next few days. And if I scroll through the same model run there, you'll notice the cooler than normal conditions associated with that troughing there as we go towards the end of the month and on into the early portion of July. So, who knows? We we'll just kind of watch it. It's a fantasy forecast as of right now. 6 to 10 day, the above normal still exists there and kind of the mixed bag here across a lot of the West Coast.

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