Update on where severe storms could pop in Minnesota on Wednesday

[00:00:00]Well, our latest disturbance is swinging around that upper low that's stuck to our north. We've got showers and thunderstorms today, a dry break tomorrow, more chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday, and gradually we will warm back to normal.

[00:00:21]So, we still have this upper level low centered to our north, just south of Hudson Bay. And around it, all these disturbances are rotating. Uh so yesterday's already off to the northeast. We have our latest one over us today. And then another one swinging in from the northwest here on Friday. Uh and all of that helping to keep temperatures cooler than normal, too, as that's really just a pile of cool air off to the north. Uh and it also keeps a lot of cloud cover around. But we are going to see some breaks in the clouds uh swinging in here. That's going to warm temperatures up into the 70s across much of southern Minnesota, maybe even into the Twin Cities. Uh and it's that peak of sun that's going to help generate some instability, too. Here we're going to see some uh cape values here. Convective available potential energy. This is instability. Uh we get a little bit of a bullseye kind of swinging through south central southeastern Minnesota with the timing of the day. And that's why we do have the risk of some potential severe weather across southeastern Minnesota.

[00:01:11]So a bit of a break now, but we're going to see showers and thunderstorms pop up again early to midafternoon. Those will swing through. Scattered storms. Not an all afternoon rain, but there are going to be those showers and storms around.

[00:01:21]And then pretty quickly after dark, most of this is going to fizzle out. So uh primarily these scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms and then things will quiet out quiet down overnight tonight. So we do have that slight risk uh basically Owatona Albertly Austin up to Rochester risk of severe weather level two out of five where we could see some isolated strong to severe storms maybe even a tornado but I do think mainly just some large hail damaging wind gusts. And as far as forecast rainfall kind of missing the bull's eyes of where we need to be.

[00:01:49]These are I've circled the three main drought areas and most of the rain with the system kind of falling in between, but at least there's rain around. We do have a wind advisory too for southwestern Minnesota. Wind gusts up to 50 m an hour in the southwest part of the state today as the winds wrap around the low, the surface low, which is going to move right across central Minnesota.

[00:02:08]Skies clear out though tonight into tomorrow. We're going to see sunshine return for Thursday. Pleasant, but more like late September with highs in the low 70s. Uh only normal high now is up to 80. So that is below it and we're going to gradually get towards uh more normal temperatures again as we head into the weekend and especially it looks like next week. Uh Friday though, the next system already moving in. Another disturbance, not as widespread or significant as the moisture we'll see today, but some showers and thunderstorms possible, especially late in the day Friday. And then Saturday looks mostly dry too and a bit warmer, maybe upper 70s Saturday for highs, uh with upper 60s and low 70s in northern Minnesota. those temperatures are getting closer to normal, just a degree or two below average instead of uh 10° below average like what we'll see today and tomorrow for us. Uh and then yeah, it does look as though we'll gradually warm up next week. So, we get rid of this upper low, that cool air loft finally over the weekend. That's going to allow some of the warmth to the west try to build in, but then there's also going to be these little pieces of cold air off, these little upper lows swinging through that are going to kind of keep that heat at bay for the time being. But it does look as though we will get back up towards at least 80 as we head into next week. And most of the models are still hinting at potentially a bit of heat for the end of June for the last weekend of June, which is already the weekend after next. Maybe mid to upper 80s, potentially a 90.

[00:03:26]That's been occasionally on the table here with the model runs. Uh but they kind of going back and forth here. So near 70 today. We'll see those thunder showers fill in again this afternoon.

[00:03:36]Mostly dry tomorrow. There will still be a little lingering instability. So, an isolated shower is possible and we'll see some fair weather, cumulus clouds pop up, but all in all, a pleasant day with some sunshine. And then Friday, most of the day as well. We'll start with sun, but some spotty thunder late in the day. Saturday looks mostly dry.

[00:03:52]Sunday, we're watching the next system that looks to be mainly to our south, but maybe even the southernmost counties of the state could see some rain Sunday.

[00:04:00]I think the Twin Cities and points north should stay mostly dry, though. Uh, and then all in all, temperatures still just a little bit below normal still into early next week before things warm up a bit by later next week.