In international conflicts, nations often use strategic chokepoints (like the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes) as leverage in negotiations, creating situations where diplomatic talks can be suspended or threatened as a means of extracting concessions, with the outcome depending on the balance of power and willingness of parties to escalate.
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BLASTS, BLACKMAIL & 2 VERSIONS! PRESSURE POINT Making Trump Bend! What's REALLY Happening In Iran?Added:
Two versions of the same story. That is how we have spent past two months. Be it the hot war, the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's enriched uranium, ceasefire terms, everything has two different versions. And even now, we are at the same spot. As Iran says it has called off ceasefire talks with the United States, and US says nothing like that happened. So, version one, Iran has walked out of talks with the United States of America. All negotiations suspended. No diplomacy, no dialogue, no deal at all. And then version two, Donald Trump says, "Everything is fine.
Talks are back on. He sorted it out quickly. He called it a little glitch."
A war that has killed thousands, a strait [music] that controls a fifth of the world's oil, a ceasefire that was never really a ceasefire, and the man at the center of it all calls it a glitch.
Hello and welcome. I am Nikita Kapoor, and you are watching Decode. And in this episode, we decode the two versions of this story. Let's figure out what is actually happening in Iran. Because the gap between what Washington is saying and what Tehran is saying is not a glitch, trust me.
Let's start with what triggered all of this. Israel, as it so often does, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered strikes targeting Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon.
And then threatened to go farther. His office announced that if Hezbollah did not stop attacking Israeli towns and citizens, Israel would strike terror targets in Beirut itself including the Dahiyeh district, Hezbollah's a heartland in south of the capital.
Now, here's the critical thing you need to understand viewers. From the very beginning of this conflict Netanyahu made it clear the ceasefire between the United States and Iran does not apply to Lebanon. Israel never stopped operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. But Iran Iran signed a ceasefire with America and says Lebanon was part of that deal.
But America's closest partner in the Middle East kept right on bombing Iran's closest partner in the region.
So Tehran Tehran has been watching Lebanon bleed for weeks now and calling it a violation.
And now they've finally said enough.
Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency which is close to the Revolutionary Guard Corps reported that Iran's negotiating team would halt all diplomatic communication with United States negotiators until Israel ceases operations in Lebanon and Gaza. That's not just a diplomatic protest, that is a full stop. Iran's parliament speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said that the United States blockade of Iran's ports and Israel's war in Lebanon were clear evidence of non-compliance with the ceasefire. And this is where it gets truly alarming viewers. Iran did not just suspend talks. Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran and its allies had resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab al-Mandab Strait in order to, I'm quoting here, "punish these Zionists and their supporters." Let that sink in for a moment, viewers. The Strait of Hormuz we're talking about, through which 20% of the world's oil passes every single day, has been effectively closed since the war began. Now, Iran is threatening to make that particular closure permanent.
And then, open a second front, the Bab al-Mandab, the narrow choke point between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, the gateway to the Red Sea, the road that connects Asia to Europe. Two straits, two choke points, the entire nervous system of global trade at gunpoint.
Now, let's talk about Donald Trump, because this is where version two begins. Hours after Iran suspended the talks and threatened to bomb the Bab al-Mandab, Trump picked up the phone and called Benjamin Netanyahu. Sources told Axios that Trump, at points, used abusive words to convey his disapproval of the planned offensive on Beirut by the IDF, Israeli Defense Forces. Let's pause here, because that is remarkable.
The President of the United States of America abusing to stop his closest Middle East ally from bombing a city.
That tells you everything about the chaos at the center of this alliance right now, in the middle of a war.
Trump then said, "This was a little glitch, but [music] I turned that one around very quickly, as you probably noticed earlier." Glitch. A three-month war, a suspended ceasefire, Iran threatening two straits, a heated, expletive-filled phone call with Netanyahu a glitch. But wait, here's the twist.
There was some movement indeed. The Lebanese Embassy in Washington announced that Hezbollah had accepted a US proposal calling for a mutual ceasefire of attacks, a framework proposed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, where Israel would suspend its planned strikes on Beirut in exchange for Hezbollah halting attacks on Israel.
So did it work? Well, sort of, partially, nominally. So what is really happening?
Let me give you the three layers of this story. Layer number one, the Lebanon trap. Iran is using Lebanon as a leverage, and it's smart leverage actually, because the ceasefire was built on a fault line from day one.
Israel never agreed that the pause in US-Iran hostilities would apply to Lebanon. So every Israeli strike on Hezbollah gives Iran a reason to say the deal is dead. And every time Iran says the deal is dead, Trump has to scramble, and every time Donald Trump scrambles, Iran extracts a little more. Iran is playing the long game here. Layer two, the Strait of Hormuz pressure wall. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war began. We all know that. Almost no shipping has used the strait, and the US has announced a counter-blockade on ships seeking to reach Iranian ports. Both sides are squeezing, but Iran knows that the global economy [music] feels that squeeze far more than America does. And now it wants that squeeze permanent. Layer three, >> [music] >> the deal that isn't quite there yet. The US and Iran were reported to be close last week to a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension and a framework to begin talks to [music] end the war. But the agreement was still waiting on Donald Trump's approval. Trump himself said that he believes a deal is reachable, but that he still needs to get a few more points before he signs off. So we are possibly days away from a deal or we are possibly days away from Iran closing a second straight and [music] restarting the war. Both things are true at the same time here. So here is where we land viewers. [music] Iran has suspended talks and then under pressure partially walked that back back. Trump has declared a Lebanese ceasefire that neither Israel nor Hezbollah has actually confirmed.
Netanyahu has said the IDF continues to operate as planned. Iran has threatened to fully seal two of the world's most critical maritime choke points and oil markets have already started pricing in the worst. [music] I am Nikita Kapoor and here's the real question. Is Donald Trump keeping this together or is he just keeping the illusion of it together long enough to get a deal [music] signed?
One thing is certain. This war, this ceasefire, this glitch is not over. And the world, the world is watching every word, every tweet, every phone call.
What do you think about this? Tell us in the comment section below.
>> Mhm.
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