This Correctly Predicted The Last 2 Major Crashes…

追加: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]Today's number, guys, takes me all the way back to 2009 when I first learned about this particular indicator and what it could mean for us as traders and investors into the future. Fast forward to 2026, and we've found ourselves there at a multiple of 42 times, something that we've only ever seen one time before, and that was the dot boom. So, why should we be paying attention to the picks and the shovels and what's happening in hardware stocks as Nvidia loses more ground this week in rotation?

[00:00:29]And are people starting to wake up to the real cost of AI? Some crazy reports that we need to talk about in this special weekend edition and it's leading into the abundance mindset that we always discuss. Guys, whether you like stocks, commodities, or cryptos, or you're a trader and investor, this one is not to be missed. We'll see you very soon. There's a lot to get into.

[00:00:54]Well, welcome back everyone to one of the largest daily shows on the planet when it comes to everything to do with markets. Whether you love macro Wall Street flows or of course some darkpool liquidity and boy oh boy do we have some big trades coming in over that rebalancing. Guys, we have a lot to discuss, but maybe the most notable thing was, of course, that software came back up and Microsoft went crazy on Friday, as we've been discussing here when it comes to price action, data, and flows, guys. It's a beautiful thing.

[00:01:21]We'll look at that soon. All right, remember abundance mindset. It's just such a big underappreciated thing when it comes to markets. Let's talk about though going back in time. And this one takes me back to 2009 when I first kind of got into the industry. A couple of years in, I found out about the Schiller PU ratio and this was of course developed by Robert J. Schiller and a few other people I believe and basically it is a way of kind of smoothing whether a market is expensive or not and was used to let's just say accurately predict both the 2000 crash of which we need to discuss today and of course 2007 to 8 when it came to overall housing.

[00:01:58]Now why do we pay attention? Well, we're getting up with a period that I thought we wouldn't see for a very long time, and that is that we are now 42 plus X.

[00:02:07]And one of the eagle-eyed viewers over on X, shout out to you, JT, said, "What if we're following a trend line, Tom?

[00:02:13]What if we're actually going to see a higher high on the Shillip PE, hit some type of trend line, and then things go bad?" Well, I guess it's worthwhile paying attention to. And although this is not a sell signal because of course it's been overpriced for a while based on the Schiller P ratio, I did think this was a monumental number and again it looks like we may be witnessing history here in 2026. Now to make matters worse, there were some reports coming in that seem to be trending around on the markets and I want to kind of start off here with one of the big ones which is that again it could be a rumor. I'm not exactly sure. I tried to verify it. Yes, there's newspapers on this and stuff, but they're supposedly a company that spent $500 million in one month on tokens because they didn't get their employees to cap the usage. Now, this brings up wider questions. Of course, we do know that Uber went through its entire yearly cap in like a couple of months when it comes to tokens and how much this AI is really costing. But is this one of the big problems moving forward? the real cost being taken and shown to the consumer.

[00:03:16]And of course, businesses saying, "Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. We're used to subscriptions as a service. We're not used to paying this kind of rate. Maybe we just need to go hire more staff instead of using AI." What do you guys think though? Put it in the comments down below. I think the other one that's worthwhile noting is the picks and the shovels are starting to look a little weaker. Now, they always say that when the biggest and best starts to lose steam, even with good news, then you're starting to look at potentially a market that's rebalancing itself. Now, I want to say this because Nvidia did deliver an amazing earnings. The stock has sold off since then, and more importantly, it is losing steam versus the other semiconductors. And you could say that's because there are other competition. And that then comes back to moat. What exactly is the moat here? And I asked this question to our private community over at the market masters club in fxevolution.com.

[00:04:06]And basically we talked about the idea that we've got an IPO coming up here that we'll talk about in another video which is in China which is all based on hardware and RAM. And as you guys know if they're able to massproduce then all of a sudden just like that hardware stocks might not be worth as much as you think. So the other question is of course meanwhile the financial times has been asking the question of what is going on with hyperscalers and are we actually going to see AI returns because they have saying that all of the big ones except for maybe Amazon could actually be negative. Now this is going to mean that we need to focus on two things guys and you've heard it here before earnings earnings earnings IPOs IPOs IPOs both of these things we believe could be the forefront of what's going on in 2026. So, distribution of Ford PAS. Great chart here from Duality Research over on X, guys. Give them a follow. Fantastic stuff over there.

[00:04:58]Probably underappreciated, I think. And you can see here that these are the overall splits of companies at multiples. Now, we have about 27% at 10 to 15 times sounds pretty good. 15x to 20x, not too bad. And then, of course, we have quite a few businesses that are in this kind of 20 20 to 35x kind of space. Now remember there is a big one coming up soon which we'll talk about in a moment which is going to be an IPO SpaceX that is getting multiplied at what 50x or something like that. So oh wow it's going to be a big one. We will be live streaming that as well on the channel. So hit the bell icon yeah so you get that one cuz I think that is going to be history in the making. If you love Marcus you got to be there for that one guys. Come on. This is going to be history in the making. Microsoft let's talk about it. Number one. Number one. There we go. biggest trade ever on Microsoft according to volume leaders.

[00:05:48]This is huge and it happens as the market gets into that first little level of supply. But if you've been watching the channel for a little while, you'd know that of course we follow price action, we follow data, we follow flows.

[00:05:58]And this would not really surprise most of you. I've been rubbishing on about the overall software as a service being kind of turning or at least like showing huge volume, showing lots of things that Woff talked about and all of these other kind of flows and movements. And again, that's not a solicitation to say that you do anything. Of course, you make your own decisions, guys. But the thing is that it's all about, you know, being able to look at markets and have an observation that's a little bit different to maybe what the general retail trader would. And we did discuss this one just again last week. I mean, I think I posted this on May 25th and talking about the idea that Ford P was a little bit low in terms of it was cheaper than the 10-year average. Again, kind of using a little bit of Schiller concept there in many ways. And the market was reassessing of course maybe the real cost of AI and since then Microsoft has gone up. Will we get a gap fell? We'll take a look at the chart later on but yeah it just goes to show again there is a lot of abundance in this mindset. Now software sector here's one from Blue Kurdic and it shows again when the software sector is above the 200 day moving average. Well done software sector. Paul Tudtor Jones would be happy because of course we're not in the horror show anymore. Um and then of course we we start to move above that.

[00:07:10]uh this is a great sign and it actually shows that at least with the couple of reads and I would like to note there's not much data set here for software but when you start to retake the 200 day moving average the overall gains can be kind of more positive into the future and I think this is going to be that people realize that these high moat businesses in software actually might be helped by the AI first rather than hurt by it. Now, QCOM also had another big transaction. This is off the back of MU seeing a massive transaction. The second largest ever. Now, the first largest ever. It took ages to happen with anything any movement, but we ended up getting this huge rally off it. The 10th sold it off. Now, the second question mark. We don't know what's going to happen, but this one here from volume leaders. Again, quite a lot of large transactions coming through. Now comes the question also though, guys, which is something that we've tracked for a while. Software versus Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin's had many correlations over the years. I'm actually doing a correlation talk uh in in just a week or bit over in New Zealand. But basically, you can see here that software has disconnected a little bit from Bitcoin. Software is moving up. Bitcoin has traditionally kind of been following with it. One leading, one lagging, then they follow each other. Will this time be any different? Astra Insights also seeing it. Shout out to you Astra. I know you watch the channel as well. So, some good stuff there. And it just kind of shows that something could be in the air. Now, why could that be in the air? It's got to do with this number one transaction.

[00:08:39]And although Bitcoin and crypto have been suffering, a lot of Bitcoin and and crypto traders seem to have gone over to general markets, space stocks, meme stocks, anything to do with semiconductors and hardware. It seems uh we did get the largest big darkpool sweep just a week ago. And again, if markets price up and we'll look at Bitcoin later on today's show, that could mean that there's some positive flows coming in. Now, another big thing that's got everyone hyped on this market again from Astra Insights here is an IPO coming up, which is of course SpaceX.

[00:09:09]Now, this thing is going to be huge and it's going to be the biggest ever probably well probably for sure I think, but you never know. And of course, it's going to be one of those things that you want to be part of in terms of un like watching it, not necessarily in it, guys. I'm not going to tell you anything like that. Uh, and the reason why is because it's just those history-making moments. And I think the first kind of 30 to 90 days, especially considering this stock will be probably included in the S&P fairly quickly. What is it going to do? Is it going to act the way that they often do, which is they come in with a lot of hype and they drop off?

[00:09:44]And more importantly, will the market itself actually find further hype? Now, often markets find energy into massive IPOs. Then sometimes they will actually still do okay in terms of broad market after. You can see here Blue Kurdic's gone through with all of the major ones and you can see all these big ones of the last kind of decade. This is going to be one of them. And then the market itself has done okay over the next 2 3 months and it's had a little bit of a hiccup sometimes over that first month or so. So this is going to be you know monumental times. The VIX is also quite low at the moment which makes sense. The VIX of course following that general seasonality as you can see here when we're talking about seasonality of midterms. Blue Kurdic again putting together some nice charts here basically showing that yeah when you start to uh think about midterms we're coming into the more volatile period. Now we thought at the start of the year that we would get one drop followed by a rally followed by a secondary drop later on to the year. Now will it happen? Um, you never know, but midterm election years do tend to bring the pain uh because there are a lot of things at stake and generally a ton of volatility. And you can see here V tends to spike into the July August period. So, where are we right now? We're in summer in the US.

[00:10:58]Congrats to you guys. I hope you're enjoying the good weather. And um we're here in Australia. Oh, it's cold, guys.

[00:11:03]It's cold. It's getting there. Not as cold as uh maybe Canada or wherever else. I don't know. some of those Nordic countries, they're pretty cold, but down here in in Australia, it's it's feeling a little chilly. All right, so why are we looking at this? Well, we want to be looking for the volatility. So, if V comes back into the markets, then of course that can be opportunity. It can also give you abundance, but I think what's happening at the moment is the market is rotating a little bit through.

[00:11:27]So, some interesting things in the next couple of weeks and months. Let's have a look here at the US dollar. Any updates there? No. The world's one of the world's largest hedges is doing nothing.

[00:11:36]still trapped within two ranges.

[00:11:38]Currency traders also have not really had a huge amount of stuff to uh kind of like you know get crazy about because the dollar's just been trapped for now almost a year. When it comes to the S&P, we're still seeing advanced decline line generally positive which is again quite a good positive sign. And I thought I'd track here the NASDAQ for you guys. So again, is it making a series of higher highs and higher lows? Yes, it is for now. So, even though Nvidia's weakening, which is a sign of the picks and the shovels, they're starting to maybe come a little bit undone. Great earnings, fantastic upgrades, upgrades, upgrades, upgrades, and then it sells off. That's a little bit uh of a concern. Again, you don't you have to see in the price. If it's not in price action, data, and flows, guys, then I'm not really too interested in it generally as a as a theory. So, you can see here the NASDAQ itself is continuing to kind of jump off that 20 moving average. a little bit of a hiccup last week. We've got that 297 kind of zone in the line there as well.

[00:12:36]And the US 500. These are not the options high low levels by the way guys.

[00:12:39]I I didn't get an upgrade for those, but I did get the call walls in a moment.

[00:12:43]But you can see here that this 7500 zone is going to be important. Now, now of course we know that each 500 and each,000 incremental are very very important levels. So 7500 is going to be pretty big support. If it breaks through that, it's got some changes of trend for now though. series of higher highs and higher lows on markets. And I would note as well that we're back to that 2hour 50 exponential being a one and a two. So, you know, I guess if it comes back to this level as well, we have to be watching it and paying some attention, which is 7540. All right, let's get into the options level. 76 being the major call wall now. Probably no surprise. And we can see here 76 76 76 all over the place for the call walls. For the Q's, it's kind of similar. For the NASDAQ, it's basically sitting around that 730ish area to 735.

[00:13:32]And you can see that then there's a lot of calls. Notice notably, the 700 strike is the most struck put wall. And as you can get here, 740 is the current Monday, Tuesday kind of further up sessions.

[00:13:44]Tesla meanwhile again 450 is the most struck zone. We know that and the market is just kind of hovering above that.

[00:13:51]Good news is I guess that the 430 seems to be getting a little bit of puts on it for this week's session. So it may hold it a little bit better and that stock is basically just rotating due to hype on SpaceX itself. Nvidia meanwhile uh yeah it's just it's not doing too well. It's down 210 210 couple of puts at 210 200 as well coming up in many of the longerterm strikes. And I thought we'd go to all expirations here for IBIT just to show that we've started to come closer to that level that has held Bitcoin before. 4041 4041. We're trading currently at about 4163.

[00:14:28]We just look it's underneath the daily 200 still. But if it is going to play catchup, we've got a couple of zones that we need to look at for breakout zones at least technically. Let's have a look now at the yield. So, yield first up, 2-year yield down. 10-year yield down a little bit. Japanese yields as well. You got to look at the Japanese yields. Now, those ones are down a little, but still not not absolutely, you know, dropping. And I think with Japan, you want to be looking at that 160 cuz notice the US dollar versus yen starting to get close to that 160. So, we're still watching the bonds market for now though, guys. There just doesn't seem to be enough freak out in the air.

[00:15:04]So, yeah, it's just rebalancing, rotation, that kind of stuff going on.

[00:15:08]What about financials versus SPY? They don't look so good. The financials certainly declined again and they're still at that trap zone of consolidation. So, if the financials don't make higher highs, that could be a problem. Although, the overall value funds. So, if you look at like uh I think it's like VTV, Vanguard and stuff, they've continued to rally up. So, the broadening of the market that is there's other stocks going, they look okay. It's just the financials tell us we're probably more late cycle. Let's now take a look at the American consumer. Still seems to be risk on after what was a pretty big scare. We got some numbers saying that people are still spending.

[00:15:45]I'd guess it's all on debt, but again, debt only becomes a problem when something dominoes. So, that is an actual real issue. And no, not Domino's pizza. What about software? Well, guys, I'll give you a little clap just because it's a beautiful technical. Okay, that's what it's all about. Technicals, technicals, price action, data flows.

[00:16:04]I'm going to keep talking about that because it's what we teach over at fxevolution.com.

[00:16:08]And this one I've been discussing quite a lot with you guys for a while. Nice to see it actually have a semiconductor style day which is 6% up. Now, why is that cool? Just goes to show that again nice, you know, patience, react, don't predict. In this case, this was a pretty nice technical and uh it's continuing up. Now, what are most people going to be looking for? I'm sure they're going to be looking for gap fills and those types of things. I don't know why I've got Intel there, but anyway, you can see here that we want, you know, will we get a gap on Microsoft? Are we going to 480?

[00:16:40]Again, a lot of people are going to draw this as a head and shoulders, guys.

[00:16:43]You've got the left head, right shoulder kind of thing. You've got a pit, you've got a breakout. It's getting a lot of hype now on X. Uh, you know, like anything, you know, when everyone jumps into the party, it doesn't excite me as much anymore, but the reason why is because you've already seen it in the flows and the price action. And I think one of the things that we love about trading and investing is that if you can see stuff when they're accumulating, when Wall Street and the big players are actually accumulating a position or distributing a position, it it gets you in that first third. Uh versus, of course, just being like the hype train like everyone else, which is hype train's fine if it keeps hyping, but everyone's always saying they're going to get out and then they always try to hit that top. And uh we recently saw Avis, of course. So risk management, guys, you got to be careful here in 2026. Solar stocks had another good session, gapped up, went even crazier, and then came back down. Same with clean energy. Again, there's been that abundance. And semiconductors are still holding versus the spy. So, is the backbone of the market still holding?

[00:17:42]The answer is yes. I mean, there's no reason to say that semiconductors are gone yet. We haven't seen that happen.

[00:17:48]Semiconductors in general, a little bit of volatility at the top. And we're also watching, of course, the Cosby.

[00:17:54]Oh, the Cosby has disappeared.

[00:17:57]Where's it gone? the Cosby which continues to plow higher. So yeah, people still loving this and I still think there's a V in here guys. It's actually underperformed some of those other sectors but yeah it's it's it's a pretty crazy one. I think the cost view will be one of those ones that you end up getting a film made on ultimately. MU Micron again a lot of volatility as it got upgraded last week. We're also watching SNDK which is SanDisk. Just just checking the V here seeing whether there's any changes of trend. There isn't. Of course, the market is still rallying up. And another one that came back a little bit was gold. And yeah, gold came and slammed straight into our resistance. And this is of course a technical supply resistance area. Pretty important. If we close through this, it suggests that the market might be liking that daily 200, which I can tell you sits around that 4,400 zone. So, yeah, pretty important uh moving average that it's hit here. And I'd love to see it go back up cuz, as you guys know, I do love gold. Uh but I like gold when it doesn't do what it did in January. That was that was kind of lame really that it did that because to me it spelled that we were going to have this horrible time for gold and I prefer it when we just have nice series of higher highs and higher lows. Silver not as strong as gold but that's fine cuz gold tends to lead first in these types of you know trying to form base structures and again no resistance break at this point. UK oil.

[00:19:16]Uh, okay. So, I'm not sure how this one's going to open, but it's still, you know, if we look at the weekly, it's still kind of held around that weekly 20 moving average, and it's still in that rangebound side. So, there's more reports coming out. I'm sure there'll be more news. Probably oil is one of the hardest at the moment because of all of the political pressures each way. U, but we do have a series of lower lows and lower highs on the small time frame into this support or demand area. And if we breach that, I'm looking at this 2hour 20 moving average. You can see here, look at these taps. So, I'm looking for it to close above those and ideally get above 98. If that can happen, it might be starting to do some technical turnarounds. Now, let's have a look at the Chinese market, the Hangen. Not too much going on there. We have a look at the CS300. CSI 300. Now, that's been a little bit stronger. You can see here the Chinese market's still fairly intact across the board. And if we go and have a look at Bitcoin, the number one trade, we always watch the number one trade. So at the moment, the market is not so good for the number one trade, but it's trying to turn around. I don't know yet, guys. It is still series of lower lows and lower highs for the most important crypto coin. And it doesn't look like it's caught up with software yet. So maybe that correlation's over like all of the other correlations. Remember those 90-day offsets that you guys used to do? the NASDAQ, the e the uh Ethereum BTC combo, the OG. This is why you've got to adapt in these markets, guys.

[00:20:42]You've always got to change the game a little bit. And if you've been watching the channel for a long time, you would know we just slightly nuance. Keep the core, keep the good core, guys. Slightly nuance around and that's how you stay in the game for a longer time. Thank you so much. I hope you have a great weekend. I hope you enjoyed today's video. If you did, remember to subscribe and smash that alert button, guys, because we will be doing some live streams Monday open as well. We've got a live open totally free to attend. Love to see you guys there. So, make sure to hit that one.

[00:21:09]And then, of course, SpaceX coming up soon. It's going to be exciting. It's going to be exciting mostly just because I'm really interested to see whether it becomes another one of those storylines that we've seen in the past or is it just going to I think it's going to blow people's minds either way. That's what I think. To summarize though, the market, as we always like to do at the end, still making series of higher highs and higher lows as you can see on the on the S&P in particular, but we are starting to see the signs of Nvidia weakening, which is the strongest stock. So, what's that telling us? It's telling us that maybe if you liken it to memes and bitcoins and stuff, then we had Bitcoin leading, now we've got the alt season, and then after alt season, I'll leave it there. Catch you guys. Bye for now.