Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026 LIVE: Tamil Nadu Election 2026 | Vijay | MK Stalin | EPS | India Today

Added: 2026-05-01

[00:00:00]Once again before we get into more numbers I want to go back to Axa. Would you want to quickly take our viewers through what is exactly predicted by today's chanaka vote share seat share Tamil Nad okay so vote share first uh the DMK is at 39% the [music] MK plus this is with their allies 39% the TVK at 30% access my India at 35% for both so mark the difference there today's chanaka says 39% for DMK plus TVK at 30% the AIANK is 3% behind the TVK [music] at 27%. So you've got today's chanaka predicting a slightly better tally for in fact the AIA DMK plus of 27%. What does that look like in numbers? Uh DMK plus is the single largest party. DMK single largest party even the alliance at 125. So they've crossed the majority mark of 118. TVK at 63. [music] So they're in the 60s range according to today's Chanaka about 30 less than what Praep Gupta has predicted in his exit poll. the AIMK down to number three position at 45 Prii. So those are the numbers 125 63 45.

[00:01:08]So you have the DMK as per today's Chanaka Maria where it's forming the government even if the AIDMK and the TVK come together as per this number they will not be able to challenge DMK as per these numbers. So everyone in Tamil Nadu and the DMK where is Mr. Sarvana when you need him if you're looking at these numbers there you have it. This is another set of numbers completely different from what Praep Gupta projected yesterday. Once again I would hope you will take these numbers as well with if not a pinch but a fistful of salt. Maria >> and I am looking at the margin of error as far as uh this pollster is concerned is plus minus3. So TVK and AIA DMK are plus minus3 are at 30% 27% that's the number but most of the pollsters seem to be in agreement that it is AIA DMK which is party number three in Tamil Nadu and TVK which is making a debut here a party which started only in February of 2024 is actually has reached as the primary challenger or should be seen as the prime opponent to MK MK Stalin. This is how TV pitched the battle also Maria.

[00:02:19]They said this is a battle between DMK and TVK that this is just between these two parties. The AIADMK constantly said not the case. This is always about the two Drevidian majors. There's no other party that can come in and create an impact right on debut. Vijay at least based on the exit poll numbers of access my India and today's Chanaka seems to be changing that particular narrative with Tamil Nadu. Look for access my India now there is that backing of one more exit poll at least headed in their direction.

[00:02:46]front of access my India he's hit it out of the park in terms of that projection >> because you still see a a market difference >> it's a huge difference to project 63 and to project a a baseline of 98 to then >> which but Praib did say that you know you can give a margin of error of what 20 so he said bring it down to 70 and that makes it closer >> but then there would be a margin of error in this as well you know which is 11 plus 11 minus so they take it up to 74 some are saying that this could possibly be a realistic number uh than what you know looks like on crowd but one thing is very clear that what is unfolding in Tamil Nadu is nothing short of a phenomena right now it's unbelievable unbelievable nothing short of a phenomena where the rise of Vijay and TVK is concerned and I still remember and I'll bring in Sansi Raman Sansi Raman I know you're going to say >> let's wait for Dday 4th May but I've had you so many times in my show earlier sir and uh most of the political analysts did not anticipate it the conversations came down to there is no Carter there There is no booth level penetration. How can you have fan clubs running uh you know your party? It just will not work.

[00:03:51]Clearly none of that matters when a state has decided it wants change.

[00:03:56]Directionally one thing is clear Sumani Raman two big pollsters directionally are bang on with placing TV ahead of aidk and over 60 >> pri good luck. Good luck to them and this is good entertainment [laughter] for the next 3 4 days. We can go on and discuss and say that uh you know Vijay is going to become chief minister, prime minister or whatever but none of this seems to be found in any kind of logic.

[00:04:27]Look, let me ask you a simple question.

[00:04:30]The urban vote is where Vijay is stronger. Do we agree? All the pollsters agree that the urban vote is what Vijay is getting more of. Right.

[00:04:39]>> Yes. But Raman when there is a wave when there is emotions attached to your vote then arithmetic falls by the wayside sir you know that better than I >> one one second one second if he's getting more of the urban vote >> I think we've lost that connection with samani raman >> yesterday >> can you hear us can you repeat can you repeat that point please >> no no I'm saying yesterday when I asked Praep Gupta that question he said it's 35% vote in urban areas and 33% in rural areas is what Vijay is getting according to his poll.

[00:05:16]>> Now the DMK is getting a higher share in the rural areas. Now what makes no sense is the DMK holds the bulk of the seats in the urban areas. If Vijay is doing fabulously well in the urban areas, the DMK is gaining seats. It I mean none of this makes sense.

[00:05:32]>> No, that's because I'll tell you why Mr. Sumani Raman. If you look at the region wise breakdown that Praep has given us at least based on his data he suggests that the DMK is doing very well in Delta.

[00:05:42]>> He's suggesting they're doing well in Delta. And I think the reason we're seeing such a big dent on AADMK is also because of West Tamil Nadu where he says TVK, DMK and AADMK all three are suddenly players in the Congo belt.