Weather Impact Live: Tracking rainy morning and afternoon commutes Tuesday

Added: 2026-05-16

[00:00:00]Adds to the flavor, doesn't it? It being a Monday, hanging out on the stream with you. I'm so happy you're there, though.

[00:00:05]Happy you're streaming along. We got a lot to talk about. It's been an active few days. Got to go back to Thursday.

[00:00:11]It's kind of like we've gotten into this wet pattern, having those kind of lazy afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances.

[00:00:17]Welcome into Weather Impact Live. I'm First Coast News Chief Meteorologist Lewis Turner.

[00:00:22]We do this every day at 4:30. So glad you are streaming along with us. We do have some showers out there to track.

[00:00:28]And then for a Tuesday, really focusing in on what could be an all-day chance for rain. Morning commute all the way to the evening commute and everything kind of in between. We'll have those waves of showers for you going there. So let's head outdoors. Let's go out downtown Jacksonville right now where we're watching out west. We've got the cameras on our skyline out towards downtown.

[00:00:54]And the stream is up. Of course, we're on max one.

[00:00:58]Should see that downtown look. There she blows.

[00:01:03]Yeah, May Street Bridge, St. Johns River looking good, but it's points south. So over towards Clay and into southern St. Johns County where we're northern St. Johns County where we're starting to see a few of those rain showers blow in. But we have been hot today. We've got temperatures in the low 90s out there despite having a good bit of cloud cover. So just feeling saturated, aren't we? That humidity out there feeling like 93° as a heat index value. So we're going to start getting into the season of heat index values yet again as we get back into a pattern of some afternoon showers and storms. Let's talk about our next weather impact alert. This will be Tuesday. And yeah, 4:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. These last few days we've been focused primarily on the afternoons.

[00:01:46]We've had decent mornings and we've gotten into the afternoon and we've had those widely scattered showers and a few strong thunderstorms as well over the area. But for us tomorrow, we're going to watch again morning and evening commute with the impact being rain likely. So, it could slow you down during the commute. Might need to kind of add the extra layer of bringing an umbrella into putting in the back seat of the car.

[00:02:09]This will be for your morning and afternoon commutes as well. Slow down stream First Coast News Plus always a good idea. This time tomorrow when you're streaming along with us at 4:30, we'll have a pretty active pattern happening. All right, so your visible satellite imagery right now sort where we're seeing most of the activity with that thick cloud cover over Green Cove and into northern St. Johns County right over St. Augustine kind of that band of cloud cover there and nonetheless without even with the clouds I should say we've hit 91° Jacksonville 90 and Waycross but over from Gainesville to Keystone that's where we've been a bit rain cooled. So, let's go through the radar kind of putting that loop in certainly a lot of us not seeing the rain right about good majority of us not under it but kind of watching this this line. Look at what's happening from Gainesville Alachua County over into northern Putnam southern and central clay and into St. Johns. Got this line occurring and a bit of a sea breeze collision that's pretty clear on radar as well. So, zooming on in the sea breeze what you can see kind of moving east to west in that line. Look at 295 and you see that line kind of moving there. That is representative of a sea breeze.

[00:03:24]You've got those thunderstorms down over Green Cove and moving into St. Augustine and there's another boundary coming out of those thunderstorms and outflow boundary. So, you've got sea breeze and outflow boundary colliding. We'll be interested to see if some more showers get initiated here in parts of Duval riding right along those two boundary collisions. Nonetheless, we've already got some activity though kind of watching some of that blinding rain and frequent lightning for you from Green Cove over to the parts of St. Augustine, certainly downtown St. Augustine getting it too and then out towards Alachua County. And zooming up to kind of further show you what we mean by that sea breeze, but here you go.

[00:04:04]So, kind of forecasting ahead, everything is kind of drifting towards the back towards the east and northeast trying to expand a bit. So, as I look now, you know, getting those thunderstorms Green Cove parts of St. Johns. So, this would be County Road 210, parts of Longleaf, very close to the racetrack road area and Julington Creek and then point south.

[00:04:30]So, going all the way that line, essentially racetrack road south to World Golf Village and into Switzerland and down past um the Heritage Landing neighborhood. So, you've got that extending over across 16 and the outlet mall exit up and down 95 and then out all the way to downtown St. Augustine. This would be called a pretty rough, gnarly drive down 95 right now, essentially going all the way from that 9B interchange on 95 all the way to 207.

[00:05:00]So, pretty heavy rain and you're going to be hearing the rumbles of thunder. In fact, even if you are in a rain-free area right now in northern St. Johns County and into Mandarin, you are certainly hearing that thunder. So, that might impact any outdoor activities that you've got going on. Ball practices, you know, you get within that certain range. You know, a lot of it's 6 mi, a lot of clubs will do 10 mi. Depending on that, you are getting good frequent lightning across St. Johns and into Clay County. You just saw that live update, that sweep of the radar, everything sort of again drifting back in towards the beach. So, Durban, Nocatee, and of course Micler's and those areas of Ponte Vedra, let's let's just be ready and be aware over the next hour or so as these thunderstorms continue to drift over and back towards you. And we'll continue to watch this through the 6:00 broadcast. If you stay with us after our stream and we're we're talking live, you know, we'll during the broadcast you'll we'll have a few rain showers to continue to track.

[00:06:03]So, bigger picture though, you know, what we anticipate for our Tuesday. We are kind of we've been waiting on this cold front to come through. Originally anticipated full transparency today, but the thing slowed down. It is another lazy front on the way and given the time of year you'd expect that with how hot things are and pushing back up against the front. But that front out west back towards you can kind of see that clearing cloud back in Louisiana and parts of Mississippi. That'll ultimately cross our area starting tomorrow morning. Oh, and then on top of that, just you got that blob of energy in the Gulf right off the coast of Louisiana. And maybe a little quasi sort of low impulsive energy that's going to ride right on across and that's going to bring some much needed and beneficial rain. I mean, if you're being real, beneficial rainfall for us here across the first coast and parts of Northeast Florida. So, beneficial for the drought.

[00:07:00]You know, when we're talking about rainfall totals, you know, some of us could see a half inch, others could see up to an inch and a half. Bigger picture across our country though, the main activity is right here in Southeast.

[00:07:11]Water vapor imagery, a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. So, plenty of precipitable water to get us going and feed that sponge, so to speak, and get us those rain chances. All right, zooming on down. Current dew points sticky out there. I'd say mid to upper 60s for a good bit of us with your how much moisture is in the atmosphere, those dew points in the 70s along the beach. You got a 75 dew point in St. Augustine and 73 over to Keystone.

[00:07:39]That's a good bit of that of of feed into these thunderstorms that are developing. So, we see those 60s upper 60s and 70s, that's where I'd be watching especially along that outflow boundary collision with the sea breeze for a few more thunderstorms to get going the rest of our afternoon and evening. Winds right now variable. We've got out at the beach pretty solid east breeze because of that sea breeze and then a further inland west breeze. So, as those collide and have been like a keystone kind of coming out of the southwest meeting up with that breeze coming out of St. Augustine out of the southeast. That's where you're getting some of those thunderstorms that we were watching right now. All right, taking a look around the country though as far as temperatures go other than Phoenix which we saw them hit 103 yesterday. They've hit 102 so far and they've still got a ways to go with some afternoon heating.

[00:08:34]We are the hotspot other than Phoenix.

[00:08:37]You know, they've they've got us beat just a just a smidge. But, it's a dry heat. You know, we're dealing with the humidity around here. But, that will change tomorrow certainly. You we can say goodbye to the 90s as we get into tomorrow. Temperatures going to max out in the 70s actually tomorrow and and we'll see, you know, the warmest of our temperatures it through the morning. We won't warm up much. So, even as you wake up in the morning with those rain chances at 4:00 a.m. We're just going to start as early as 4:00 in the morning and have those rain icons on through the rest of the afternoon as well.

[00:09:10]Temperatures going to get up to those mid upper 70s around the area. So, weather impact alert for you again for our Tuesday 4:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

[00:09:18]Impact beneficial rain, but we will have some slick roads out there across the region. The big need allow extra time for your morning commute and by all means pack the umbrella. So, when you come back, we're going to take a look at some computer modeling. We'll time things out for you kind of hour by hour and show you what we're dealing with and why we're confident that Tuesday looks to be a rainy day. So, stay right there.

[00:09:38]We'll be right back.

[00:11:41]>> All right, welcome back to the weather impact live stream watching radar just a little bit just kind of seeing what's popping out there around the first coast and watching those showers down towards Fruit Cove and now kind of the latest on that would be maybe some small hail in fact being reported there quarter of an inch but we'll also wind gusts to 40 miles an hour. So that's again that line we're watching Green Cove across the Fruit Cove and down into St. Augustine. So again stormier day and we'll continue to watch but we expect even more as we go into a Tuesday. So here's some modeling will will look at a couple of different versions of this but you know we talked 4 to 7. There's we started at 4:00 a.m.

[00:12:24]and even through 2:00 p.m. still seeing some of that rain out there those embedded thunderstorms where you seen the reds the oranges and the yellows.

[00:12:31]You get that thunder going and even late into Tuesday night more showers kind of sticking around our area and I wouldn't be surprised if Wednesday morning commute we have a few small showers out there going into our Tuesday. Our severe weather outlook All right, so we're still kind of in just the thunderstorm risk so not even at that one out of five but where we do have that marginal risk for seeing a severe thunderstorm according to the storm prediction center and with dynamics lining up you know you're looking down towards our area what would be southern St. Johns County Putnam and into Flagler and then all the way down 995 to Miami certainly have the potential for seeing thunderstorm to the next level where you get 50 to 60 mile an hour wind gusts there. So we'll watch that carefully and we'll be on alert here too cuz we certainly can't rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm on our Tuesday. So for our Tuesday I mentioned we're not going to be able to really get out of the 70s, 76 degrees, commute rain, and that's both commutes, morning and evening, with afternoon storms. Uh those east breezes meeting the west breeze causing a a collision of sorts, and and we're going to get all kind of coalescent of moisture and thunderstorms going.

[00:13:44]Sunrise 6:34 in the morning, and we'll have a sunset tomorrow at 8:11. And then out at the beach, just um not ideal. Okay, so Tuesday is not the beach day. And as you can see on our satellite forecast why. Uh small craft advisory to say the least, rip current risk certainly, just some big nasty waves, and then the seas offshore are going to be at 5 to 6 ft. Surf temperature 75 degrees, river temperature is bumping up up to 79. And those uh waves are going to be 6 ft at 7 seconds. So leave that surf to the professionals, or maybe just hang out and dodge some showers and a thunderstorm out at the beach might be the uh the real thing to do.

[00:14:24]Low tide is in the morning at 11:00 and then we'll have a high tide uh later in the afternoon at 5:23. For your Wednesday, isolated rain. Notice I also put in drying out. So isolated rain, maybe a thunderstorm early in the day, but uh really once that front has crossed, we begin a drying trend. So yes, uh Wednesday certainly have that rain chance early, we'll say 40% of us, but we are in the trend of drying out as opposed to the last four or five days where we've been in the uh trend of kind of getting a little more moisture, building that in, and uh having the rain chances with us. Thursday, now we're mainly dry, we're starting to warm up again, too. Uh we'll have mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, high temperature 88 degrees after a morning low of 65. So uh we'll we'll continue that drying out trend. Let's look at our forecast rainfall.

[00:15:13]Uh we so some of us have through the last few days have had up to an inch of rain already. Some have been around a quarter of an inch. So we've had variable uh you know amounts and totals, beneficial rain nonetheless and getting into a better pattern of of seeing more showers.

[00:15:30]This forecast, this would be for for your Tuesday and into some of that Wednesday morning rain chance. That's where how far that model is running out.

[00:15:38]Look at these totals and this is some of the higher totals that we've seen. And as we run this model, you know, we get better and better information getting closer and closer to time. Here we are you know 24 hours out from an event.

[00:15:51]Really you know at this point 12 hours out from the morning part of the event but through the afternoon and evening you know some of us could get up and over an inch of rain in a single day.

[00:16:02]Been a while since we've done that. So that that's again going to qualify as beneficial but also qualifying is enough rain to sort of slow things down and make you have to change your plans just a little bit on a Tuesday. But at least it's a work day and it's not happening on a weekend like we saw on Saturday with those rain chances. So here's future cast modeling 2:30 in the morning early and really late with depending on how you want to look at it tonight.

[00:16:27]Probably while most people are sleeping we're already starting to get beneficial rain. This will lead to slick roads so that early start already dampening the roadways out there. 6:30 in the morning as we get our commute going some of those showers around the north side and up and down the 95 corridor and we don't really get much of a break. Kind of that wave of rain sticking over a good bit of the metro. This is why we could see some of those rainfall totals in areas up and over an inch. Then you get that main line coming across Lake City filling in.

[00:16:55]This is 3:30 in the afternoon so 3:30 to 4:00 and then we begin our evening commutes. We're starting to see 95 corridor kind of inundated. We'll be watching for that very carefully for your drive through the evening.

[00:17:09]And then you know we kind of end that weather impact alert right around 7:00.

[00:17:12]While there are still could be a few showers out there certainly and modeling indicating Southeast Georgia could be a focal point for some of that rain. You know, at least our our main highways starting to clear up except safer Camden, Glynn County. Still probably chilly some rain there along I-95 and then over the Okefenokee Swamp. And by Wednesday morning, yeah, quick shower there especially along our coast is absolutely possible. By Thursday though, you see that we have some drier moving in and a weak front will make its way in Thursday into Friday and that won't bring rain, but it will bring us some drier air and ultimately just a small temperature change. So, extended outlook as we kind of look at this, we've had that pesky stalled front over the area. You see that a blob of moisture coming out of the Gulf right there at kind of your tail of the front. It's going to ride right along that front and bring all that rain really across a good portion of the state of Florida. So, Florida desperately needing that rain, that would be into your Tuesday. All that moisture kind of soaking us in. Think of atmospheric moisture is filling the sponge. How much water do you have in there for the potential for some rain?

[00:18:19]And then just a little knob of moisture still left over on Wednesday afternoon.

[00:18:25]There you can see kind of over the Space Coast and some of our southern areas, but then we get into Thursday and we begin to dry out. All right, so today's date is the 11th meaning we are now oh 20 2 21 days away from June 1 and the official start of hurricane season.

[00:18:46]And we have had May surprises before, certainly, but not to be had right now. So, no tropical formation is expected. In fact, dealing with some constraints there in hurricane development when it comes to Saharan dust and some of those temperatures not quite there yet, but those sea surface temperatures are warming up. Got a few things to have to contend with, you know. We do have an El Nino developing.

[00:19:13]So, we've talked about a lot about this with our forecasting. We saw the Colorado State forecast for the hurricane season be a little less than average. Of course, looking at big national forecast don't always get me so excited because we just get one hurricane and that creates a busy hurricane season. So, will the hurricane season be busy? Well, it just takes one storm hitting our area or hitting around our area in our proximity, sideswiping us and things get really busy really fast. But, in theory, strong El Nino that's forecast does shear apart storms and and create less favorable environment why those forecast you've been seeing have been a little bit less than average. Maybe a 13 named storms as opposed to the seasonal 30-year average of 14 or 15. So, a little hurricane talk for you here on May 11th. Let's take another time out.

[00:19:59]When I come back, we'll wrap up [snorts] with the 7-day forecast and I'll talk about your Tuesday yet again. Stay there.

[00:22:09]>> All right, welcome back to it. Weather Impact live taking a look we were talking tropics and we'll kind of get back into the cadence of talking about uh hurricane season as we get closer and closer to it. In fact, we'll have our annual tradition what hurricane special air in the day before hurricane season starts. And of course, remember the wind shear uh the that an El Nino can provide uh really kind of cuts the head off a developing hurricane. It's why uh the strong wind shear disrupts wind flow.

[00:22:38]These well, powerful creatures, these hurricanes, they're very finicky in the development phase. And very finicky when it comes to when they're getting where they get their energy and how they continue to strengthen. So, uh it could be helpful though uh in in over in here in the here and now we are watching a plume of Saharan dust make its way over and as we talk about frequently, Saharan dust can do a couple of things. One, it can kind of uh prohibit inhibit heating of kind of those main development regions like early in the season we would typically see in the the Caribbean and also can kind of put a cap on the atmosphere for development create substance or stability. So a couple of things there I you know gut tells me we're going to get a few developing earlier in the season and then as that El Nino develops later in the season that could maybe quell a few things but again it only takes one. What would be the first named system of 2026?

[00:23:32]Arthur. And then you have a Bertha as you take a look at your 2026 Atlantic tropical cyclone names there. So if you want to we'll show this to you periodically but if you're interested in you snap a quick picture of that. Let's see who's it's always the I's and the K's and the M's I think about. So Isa Is is back if you remember that name from 6 years ago we were having a real good time trying to pronounce that one the first go round.

[00:24:00]Kyle and Marco. All right, so your I your K and your M. Those are the ones that always kind of stick out in my brain for storms. I guess cuz I go back to Ian and Nicole and Matthew and Irma.

[00:24:15]Yeah, so we got that that trauma that we have been thinking about from recent side swipes. Here's your 7-day forecast though. So yeah Tuesday oh by the way buddy check day. So just FYI wear your pink but the day is highlighted in red because a full day of weather impact alert for you on a Tuesday. 80% of us seeing those showers maybe even a severe thunderstorm as we go through the day.

[00:24:36]So we'll be watching that and we'll be streaming on First Coast News Plus as necessary as we watch lines of showers come through. We've also got our 24/7 radar right there on First Coast News Plus as well if you want to kind of watch where everything is and settling in. Wednesday 40% chance of seeing a shower through the really the first part of the day till about noon and after I think things start to improve. Thursday we're drying out warming up to 88. We drop a little bit