El Nino Just Doing Something NOBODY Alive Has Ever Seen...

追加: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]There is a massive weather story breaking today that goes far beyond just this week's severe weather outbreak. And I want to make sure you fully understand what it means for the rest of this year and beyond. NOAA officially confirms this morning that El Nino criteria has been reached. We have crossed the threshold and while that might sound like an abstract climate announcement, what it means in practical terms for millions of people across the Southern United States, for your flooding risk, your severe weather frequency, your drought conditions and your summer outlook is enormous. We've been talking about this transition for months as sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific climbed steadily upward and now it's official.

[00:00:43]El Nino is here and forecasters expect it to intensify into a strong, possibly even super El Nino by the time we reach fall and winter. Today, we're going to break down what that means for the weeks ahead while also covering the very immediate and dangerous severe weather situation unfolding right now across the Central United States. Let's start with today because it is already a high impact event in progress.

[00:01:09]The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Sig 2 designation for portions of Kansas and surrounding areas and I want to make sure you understand what that means. A Sig 2 tornado designation means that EF3 and potentially even EF4 tornadoes are possible. That is violent tornado territory. Storms are already getting going across Kansas this afternoon and the environment fueling them is extraordinary.

[00:01:36]Dew points are surging into the 70s across Kansas. That level of moisture in mid-May is the direct fingerprint of the newly active subtropical jet stream pulling Gulf moisture northward with tremendous efficiency. That same moisture surge is swinging well northward into Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan, all ahead of a cold front that is a genuinely significant boundary for late May standards. By the way, if you'd like specific weather forecasts for your region or city, please leave them in the comments. I'll answer them individually as time allows. Also, if you like the video and subscribe to my channel, you'd be very grateful. Now, let's move on.

[00:02:12]The threats today are severe across the entire risk corridor. Softball-sized hail is possible in the highest risk areas. Wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph are well within the realm of possibility, and the tornado threat is real and dangerous. Potentially violent tornado strength in parts of Kansas extending into northwestern Missouri, Iowa, and back into Oklahoma.

[00:02:37]If you are in any of those areas right now, severe weather is not something to monitor casually from your porch today.

[00:02:43]You need to be paying close attention, have your shelter identified, and be ready to move quickly. There is also a flash flooding component to today's event that deserves equal attention. A moderate risk for excessive rainfall is in place across portions of Illinois and Indiana. That is a high confidence signal for flash flooding in those areas today.

[00:03:05]The rainfall rates associated with today's storms can reach 1 and 1/2 to 2 in per hour in the most intense cells.

[00:03:12]And when you get that kind of rainfall rate over already saturated ground, water rises fast. Now, let's talk about tomorrow and the days that follow because this pattern does not reset after today. As the cold front slides southeastward tomorrow, the severe weather threat shifts and elongates into one of the longest risk corridors I've seen this season, stretching from Texas all the way through the Great Lakes and into Pennsylvania and upstate New York.

[00:03:38]The threat zone is long and narrow, hugging that frontal boundary as it tracks from northwest to southeast. The primary hazards tomorrow are large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall with the tornado threat more conditional depending on storm mode. What I'm watching most closely tomorrow is the potential for a mesoscale convective system, a large organized storm complex, to form and push southward through Texas during the afternoon and evening producing torrential rainfall at rates of 1 and 1/2 to 2 in per hour at times as it sweeps from north to south through the state.

[00:04:13]And then the front stalls. This is the part of the forecast that has the most significant long-term implications for flooding. When a cold front stalls in late May with an active subtropical jet stream pumping moisture northward, you get what's called an overrunning setup.

[00:04:28]Warm moist Gulf air rides northward and rises over that stalled boundary continuously day after day ringing out heavy rainfall repeatedly over the same areas. The regions underneath that stalled front, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and much of Texas, are going to see compounding rainfall that adds up significantly over time. This overrunning setup extends into Thursday, Friday, and potentially beyond. By Thursday and Friday, flash flooding concerns are elevated across Central Texas including San Antonio with heavy rain also affecting Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. I want to pause on this for a moment because these areas have been in a desperate drought.

[00:05:12]The sudden shift from extreme dryness to repeated heavy rainfall events is jarring and while the rain itself is desperately needed, the rate at which it's arriving creates its own serious problems. Drought-hardened soil doesn't absorb water efficiently. It runs off quickly, which means flash flooding risk is elevated even when the rainfall totals aren't extreme. The ground simply can't drink it in fast enough. Now, let's talk about Memorial Day weekend because the pattern doesn't let up even as we approach the holiday.

[00:05:42]Heading into next weekend, that same overrunning moisture setup continues to dominate across the South and South Central states. Rainfall rates of 1 and 1/2 to 2 inches per hour are being advertised again for the holiday weekend across the Southeast and South Central states, and the Climate Prediction Center has already issued a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall going into Memorial Day and the day after.

[00:06:06]Texas, the Gulf Coast states, and the broader Southeast are looking at yet another round of heavy, potentially flooding rainfall over the holiday weekend.

[00:06:16]Let me put the overall rainfall picture into perspective because the numbers being generated by the models are staggering. Looking at total rainfall projections through the end of May, roughly the next 2 weeks, the American GFS model is showing some areas of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and into Illinois and Indiana accumulating double-digit rainfall totals. Some isolated areas could approach a foot of rain over this period. The European model is, if anything, slightly more aggressive with those totals in certain areas. Even with model uncertainty at that range, the directional agreement between the two models is clear and consistent. A massive, prolonged, and potentially historic rainfall event is building for the Southern United States through the end of May. And the reason all of this is happening comes back to the headline of today's forecast. El Niño is officially here, and it's already changing everything.

[00:07:13]Let me explain exactly what's happening and why it matters. NOAA's confirmation this morning is based on sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific that have now crossed the official threshold. But here's the key context. This transition has been building for months, and the rate of warming in the Pacific has been rapid.

[00:07:31]What starts as a modest El Niño threshold crossing in May is expected to intensify dramatically through the summer and into the fall.

[00:07:39]By the time we reach October through January, forecasters are projecting a strong, possibly super, El Niño. That would put this event in the same category as some of the most impactful El Niño events in recorded history, but its fingerprints are already visible right now, and the most immediate effect is what's happening to the jet streams.

[00:07:59]In a developing El Niño pattern, the subtropical jet stream, the atmospheric highway that runs further south, becomes increasingly energized and dominant. It essentially acts as a moisture conveyor belt, pulling warm, humid air out of the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific and dragging it northward over land.

[00:08:18]Meanwhile, the polar jet stream, the one that typically drives weather systems across the northern US, retreats northward and weakens. The result is that the subtropical jet becomes the primary engine for weather pattern development across the southern 2/3 of the country. What that means in practice, and you can already see this in the forecast, is that the southern states become the bull's-eye for persistent heavy rainfall, elevated severe weather frequency, and repeated flooding events. Texas and Oklahoma will likely bear the heaviest impacts of any region in the country under this pattern. Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee are closely behind. As the subtropical jet strengthens through May and into summer, moisture values and rainfall rates continue climbing. By late May and into June, parts of New Mexico and Arizona will also start feeling the effects as Pacific moisture begins linking up with this pattern and kick-starting what looks like it could be a very active monsoon season, potentially ahead of schedule. On the other end of the spectrum, the Pacific Northwest, the northern plains, and the northern tier of the country will trend progressively drier as the polar jet weakens and retreats. Drought concerns in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and northern California, which have been simmering all spring, are going to intensify as summer approaches. The pattern is essentially shifting precipitation southward and away from the northern states. And looking even further ahead into fall and winter, if this El Nino does verify a strong or super in strength, the downstream effects are profound. The entire southern tier of the United States from California through the Gulf Coast would likely see a significantly wetter than normal fall and winter. The northern states would trend warmer and drier. Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin typically decreases during El Nino years due to increased wind shear, while the eastern Pacific becomes more active, and the severe weather pattern for the southern plains could remain elevated well into the fall months. The bottom line right now today is this. El Nino is not a future story.

[00:10:28]It is a present story. Its effects are already visible in the extraordinary moisture surging northward from the Gulf, in the extreme rainfall totals being forecast through the end of May, and in the dramatic shift from drought to flooding that is unfolding in real time across the south and south central states.

[00:10:46]These areas went from desperately dry to being on the receiving end of potentially a foot of rain in 2 weeks.

[00:10:53]That is a dramatic El Nino driven pattern change happening right in front of us. For your immediate safety today, if you're in Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, or Oklahoma, the severe weather threat is active and serious right now. Violent tornadoes, softball-sized hail, and destructive winds are all in play. Take shelter if warnings are issued in your area. Don't wait to see the storm before you act. For the days ahead through the holiday weekend, the flooding threat across Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee is going to be the dominant and growing story. Watch the forecasts closely for your area, especially if you live in a flood-prone region. 2 in of rain per hour over ground that's been baked dry all spring creates dangerous runoff very quickly. And for the bigger picture, through the rest of 2026, El Nino is here. It's strengthening, and it is going to reshape the weather pattern across the United States in ways that we'll be tracking and explaining to you every single day. This is one of the most significant climate signals to emerge in years, and its effects are going to be felt from coast to coast.

[00:11:58]Stay with us. We'll be covering every piece of this story as it evolves, from today's severe weather all the way through what promises to be one of the most impactful El Nino events in recent memory. Stay safe out there, and we'll see you in the next update.