Cristina Ulang on Why Filipinos Feel Stuck in Survival Mode | Follow The Money

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00][music] [music] >> Good morning. I'm Robert [music] Tan.

[00:00:20]Join us as we follow the money from the financial choices that shape your daily life to the bigger [music] forces driving the economy.

[00:00:29]The headlines.

[00:00:32]Mark Villar is the new head of the Senate [music] Finance Committee after reportedly rejecting the role of majority leader.

[00:00:40]Small vendors say that government's [music] price cap on imported rice is hurting them and forcing them to operate at a loss.

[00:00:56]And economic [music] policy is always a balancing act. How can the country protect consumers and keep investors confident? Kristina [music] Ollano of First Metro Investment joins us.

[00:01:09]Senator Mark Villar lands one of the [music] most powerful positions in the upper chamber. He is now the chairperson of the Senate Finance Committee, which oversees deliberations and scrutiny of the national budget.

[00:01:22]Two Senate sources say Villar was first offered the majority [music] leader post, but he supposedly turned it down, preferring to work behind the scenes instead of dealing with floor duties during plenary debates.

[00:01:34]Villar replaces [music] Senator Sherwin Gatchalian. So far, five senators have lost their committee leadership since the Senate coup last week.

[00:01:44]A heated exchange breaks out in the house over a proposal to cut the value added tax [music] from 12 to 10%.

[00:01:52]Batangas representative Leandro Leviste pushed for the VAT cut during the on the proposed Kalinga Act, a measure aimed at cushioning Filipinos from fuel price shocks. Leviste says 2% cut could mean around 5,000 pesos more in disposable income per family each year. But Ways and Means chairperson Miro Quimbo pushed back during Leviste [music] to get signatures from majority of committee members first.

[00:02:32]As soon as you're able to get the signature of majority of the members of the Ways and Means Committee That is my commitment.

[00:02:58]transparently for the information now somebody now You cannot hold hostage a process. I'm giving you a way out by which I myself will personally sign and support your initiative, Mrs. Speaker.

[00:03:27]Thank thank you, Mr. Chair. Whether it's in writing or in a committee um that Small rice vendors are struggling [music] to comply with the government's 50 peso price cap on imported rice, with many saying they are being forced to sell at a loss. Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel warned retailers that selling above the mandated ceiling could lead to penalties under the law.

[00:04:06]This includes jail time and fines of up to 1 million pesos. [music] But advocacy group Bantay Bigas says policy should not stop at small retailers, [music] arguing that the government should also go after big players.

[00:05:05]Up next, is the country truly resilient or just stuck in a cycle of crisis? We talk about how to go from economic shock to strategy with Christina [music] Ulang of First Metro Investment Corporation.

[00:05:20]Keep following the money. [music] Welcome back to Follow the Money. The country is [music] facing twin pressures, economic and political, in a time of high prices, energy risk, and an impeachment saga. Are Filipinos truly resilient, or are we just surviving the same crises again [music] and again?

[00:05:59]For the bigger economic picture, we bring in Christina Ulang of First Metro Investment Corporation. Good morning, Christina. Welcome to Follow the Money.

[00:06:07]Hi, good morning, Sir Robert.

[00:06:09]Thank you for having me. Welcome to the show. A lot to unpack here, Christina.

[00:06:14]Let's start with this. If we strip everything down, what is the core economic vulnerability of the Philippines today that makes it most exposed to shocks like oil spikes, political uncertainty, or power constraints?

[00:06:29]Mhm. Uh well, uh the first thing that comes to my mind is we don't have a strategic fuel reserves.

[00:06:36]This is what our neighbors have. They have a 10 months, 12 months worth of fuel reserves that will keep and will keep their economy running, oil their economy, help their industries, and keep income flowing into the households, a retention of the jobs. So, I think it's very important that we have a energy we have a sufficiency in terms of our fuel, in terms of our renewable energy, anything and everything that's going to keep the economy moving. And really the foundation and the and the the rock on which all economies of the world rests is really energy sufficiency, fuel. We need to have strategic fuel reserves. 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, but we don't have storage facilities for that. I think that is what we should be working on, medium term, longer term. So, having said that, Christina, do you think it's high time we take a look back at the deregulation law and really look at it and see what can be done and maybe bring back the power back to the government or so that we can have in place our own uh power supply, our own uh oil refinery uh here.

[00:07:47]Mhm. Well, we are now living in a multipolar world, always beset by geopolitical uncertainty. So, we need to be vigilant and we need to have uh we need to rethink all of our policies and reforms so that we're able to reduce our vulnerability because it's a different world, eh? And all of the policies of the past may need to be tweaked in order to be uh we need to be flexible. We really need to be vigilant. We need to have regular conversation on what is happening around us. And I I think the the the big big uh attitude shift is really flexibility. Because if before uh we have a banned coal, now we need to have base base load power plants to uh keep the economy going because uh LNG prices are rising, oil prices are rising. So, we need to have uh and we're now suffering from power interruption.

[00:08:38]We've seen the yellow alert uh uh escalate to a red alert, which means actual brownouts. And we have seen in the '90s that this has cut our GDP growth by as much as 1.5% uh reduction.

[00:08:52]So, imagine if we're going to have uh like a 1% reduction of our GDP again uh given our already weak 2.8% GDP growth.

[00:09:01]What's going to happen to our uh are we going to have stagflation? So, we need really to to cushion the economy from power interruption. And I think we need to to do that. I think we need to rethink our policy. So, so the question is are we going to lift the ban on coal plants because this is base load and we don't have a a a pipeline of a base load in terms of RE, renewable energy is not in renewable energy is intermittent. We don't have the batteries yet. Of course, Meralco, MGen, SPNEC is laying out the biggest uh renewable energy project solar farm, but it's going to take time. But now right now we need to have immediate base load plant and we have coal plants. So we need to be flexible when it comes to even business BCCI and economic planning secretary Balisacan is already calling for a a reconsideration of this ban on coal because we need to avoid power interruption and the reduction in our GDP. Do you think that discussion is being taken seriously [clears throat] so that we can have maybe a quick fix right now on the short and medium term while waiting for the long-term effects of the renewables coming in?

[00:10:19]Yeah, well I'm hoping that government the Department of Energy is going to be maybe reconsidering [clears throat] even what government officials are already saying because our this this Iran war is going to take longer. We don't know if there's going to be Mr. Trump is talking of another hit, another strike versus Iran if Iran doesn't comply with his minimum maximalist requirements of no nuclear enrichment.

[00:10:48]Whereas all the other countries have nuclear enrichment but zero for Iran which it considers very unfair. So there are forecasts that the oil prices global oil prices might even shoot up again in in June. So what's going to happen to us if we don't have a strategic fuel reserves? Now with everything that's It's true Christina.

[00:11:12]But with everything that's happening right now if we look at the micro level looking inward right now here in the country, a lot of Filipinos feel like they're stuck in budget survival mode.

[00:11:22]From an economic standpoint, what signals tell you that a consumption driven economy is starting to weaken and what's happening now? How can the individuals or small businesses help themselves? I've been asking this before. How can they help themselves while waiting for everything to ease out?

[00:11:41]Mhm. Well, you know, the the first signal that I look into is the first quarter corporate earnings of the PSE, of the listed companies in the stock market. They're going to look at discretionary spending, it has weakened.

[00:11:54]Some of those names that are in discretionary is spending have seen reduction in their earnings by as much as 56%.

[00:12:03]But those companies that are gearing for the essentials, the basic, it's really back to basic team. They have earned like 24%, 20%, the noodle makers, the grocery discounters, you know these names, they are the ones making money now and being rewarded by the market because households are really trimming down on their expenses, reducing on the discretionary and all the luxuries of life.

[00:12:28]>> [laughter] >> Reducing back to basic, buying only the essential. And and the the discretionary, all those in the discretionary counter are being hit by that. Of course, the the lifestyle of the rich and famous is different.

[00:12:41]Different. Inflation for the Yeah.

[00:12:44]>> it is very hard for especially the daily wage earner who's you know living on a day-to-day basis. It's kind of hard especially when people talk about investing, wealth building, it's hard to do savings, keep emergency funds at this rate.

[00:13:03]Yeah, inflation for the poorest of the poor is 8.5%.

[00:13:07]Our broad inflation, headline inflation is 7.2%. [clears throat] So, imagine the the kind of a budget that the poor is dealing with where you have like 80% of their budget is into rice. It's all about rice and it's really survival. But for the typical household, I think the important thing is to look at our balance sheet. We cannot afford to have a lot of debt right now. We need to prepay and not suffer the the consequence of a high high interest payments and then that's going to eat up on our budget, but we need to have a greater creativity in looking out for opportunities, have more sidelines. I know it's difficult because the economy is slowing down 2.8% in the first quarter, but we need a we have a a huge pool of a consumer consumer we are a young country population is a buying here and there unlike Japan where the old are not going out they're not molling, but here we need a lot of essentials and there are so many creative families going out and I think the the informality of the the informality of the economy is going to grow. Meaning those that are in the informal sector trying to eke out a living out in the streets. This is the sector that is going to grow.

[00:14:24]Although this formal sector of the economy the corporate world the medium small enterprise are going to be like focusing on their business is still cutting out on excess fat and I think the the big corporates are looking after their balance sheet. This is the a period of capital preservation and then a rethinking of the capital refinancing capital structure removing all the inefficiency those there's going to be a big efficiency drive Well, everybody is doubling down on tightening their belts and pulling their socks up by in terms of trying to save and you know, preserve preserve whatever let's say cash or wealth that they have.

[00:15:04]But Christina, if we look at the best practices that our ASEAN neighbors are doing right now cuz if if we compare the inflation rate that we have right now 7.2 it's almost sometimes double or triple triple of what our ASEAN neighbors are the data coming out from our ASEAN neighbor. What best practices what what what can we learn from what they're doing that we can do here?

[00:15:29]Well, you know, as I have said earlier, they have fuel reserves and that tends to cushion the inflationary impact of the Iran war, higher oil prices, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They have like 8 months, 10 months, 11 months worth of fuel reserves that can be uh released.

[00:15:47]And and they have their own indigenous sources of fuel. We don't have. We are 100% dependent on the Middle East, on the Strait of Hormuz, and on our neighbors. And we don't have these storage facilities. So, I think we need to have we need to rethink. We need to focus on some buffers that we can build.

[00:16:07]We can now order order ahead of the expected hit by Trump on Iran again, order more, but how do we now where do we now store? So, I think that's the predicament. We need to have government officials thinking about the storage facilities where we can store all of these for the prolonged. And then where do we the logistics also has to improve, the materials, the inventory. Where do we store this excess the need for more rice stocks. So, how do we manage all of that? And we need to rethink also the the tariff policy when it comes to the rice and agricultural products. What do we protect? What do we not protect? What do we buy in bulk? Where do we store?

[00:16:49]So, it's a supply chain management thing and inventory management thing because we are preparing for the worst in order to be a resilient and to keep the economy going. And as it needs a complete a shift in mindset. Um cuz you know, as energy is repeatedly becoming a pressure point from grid warnings to rising demand, besides your recommendations of um coal and uh um storage facilities for oil here.

[00:17:17]What other structural fixes should the Philippines prioritize now so this doesn't keep happening every few years and realistically how long would those fixes take to matter?

[00:17:30]Mhm. Uh, well, you know, the the keyword really is invest, invest, invest. Invest in power supply, power generation capacity because the NGC was saying they're ready. They're actually they're they have the transmission capacity adequate, but the problem is the supply that will run through the transmission capacity. There's really electricity growth in the country. The consumption is growing at 5% yearly and studies from the IMF is saying we need to have like 45,000 MW additional capacity by 2030.

[00:18:06]And the data center association of the Philippines is saying that for that data center boom to continue, we need to have a dedicated capacity power generation capacity of minimum of 1 GW up to 18 GW. So, we're not even Yeah, we're not even prepared for this data center boom because these are power energy hungry structure, digital infrastructure. So, we need to really the advent of AI it takes a lot of energy to run these facilities.

[00:18:44]So, we've had chronic under investment in power generation. Even of course I'm commending all of the initiatives of the Ayala Corporation, ACEN very aggressive in terms of the renewable energy expansion. Of course, MGen SPNEC trying to be the ambition is so great trying to be the next big Asia's biggest solar farm, 3,500 MW inclusive of batteries.

[00:19:08]So, FGen also and Chrome Light, all of these are all all doing the investment, but it's still short of what the country needs in terms of our growth. If we're aiming like 8% growth, 6% GDP growth, we need to have [music] first the infrastructure, the energy infrastructure that will propel the the growth. And if we're inviting a lot of like foreign direct investment, we have to have really energy efficiency. So, aside from the chronic underinvestment, I think we need to have a pro-business I'm not saying it's not pro-business right now, but pro-business environment. A more more pro-business environment for the electricity >> investors, but also for our local small businesses because the high cost of energy electricity is also digging deep in their wallets.

[00:19:58]Yeah. There's There's been calls for the lifting of VAT on the electricity bills.

[00:20:04]But, of course, the position of government, we need to understand the the fiscal position of the government.

[00:20:09]We are We have debt of like a debt to GDP of 63% already. 18.5 trillion worth of peso debt. And And we need to manage that. So, the government is not in really in a position to lift the VAT on electricity. But, people are calling for for for that as a as a maybe a temporary relief. Our our our foreign debt also is growing, and our budget deficit is also needs to be We need to stick to the fiscal consolidation. But, we need also to spend. Government needs to spend. So, Well, it is a struggle, it is a struggle, Christina, to really strike a balance on what to do. If you do this, what are the repercussions? You know, it could be good now, but maybe in the long run it might not be good. But, on top of all that because we hear a lot about resilience in the Philippine economy. But, resilience can also become complacency. What is one uncomfortable economic truth the country needs to face right now instead of normalizing repeated cycles of stress. We've been through this before. We've been through a lot of crises, but sometimes we become not just proactive, but reactive in a sense so that, you know, striking a balance of what to do is sometimes a struggle.

[00:21:30]So I think we if we need to we've always look at this a Philippine power development plan, Philippine development plan 2023-2050.

[00:21:41]I think these are all good in in as a literature as a reference, but we need to really have actionable actionable targets and measurable targets so that over time we're able to achieve something. Like if we are going to formulate a policy, let us see first year what has been accomplished, second year what has been accomplished. I think we I don't know if I may be I may be lacking the information, but we need to see greater evidence that we have concrete goals and we and we are able to deliver in terms of relative to this concrete goals that we need to have. So if we have a development of so much, how are we faring versus the development plan that we have set for ourselves? I think that needs we need to have greater visibility of that.

[00:22:29]>> So if we come back yes So if we come back to this same conversation Christina one year from now, what would you want to see improve not in the headlines, but in real economic behavior that would tell you the Philippines is finally moving from survival cycles to actually breaking them?

[00:22:47]Well, you know, we need to have really a very high transparency when it comes to our fiscal our fiscal spending. We've been hit actually by three three events flood control last year, which has eroded investor confidence. So, we need to fix that. And I think that's going to be the big big uh game changer if we're able to uh have some social justice, credible resolution of that, then that's going to send a signal to the uh foreign investors that we are serious.

[00:23:22]We are in serious business here. We are open for business. We're We're upholding the rule of law and our regulatory environment is such that it's really going to be very conducive for business to flourish. I think that's number one.

[00:23:36]>> on that. Uh on that note, Christina, uh thank you very much for joining us uh this morning. Thank you for your insights and your time.

[00:23:44]Thank you. Morning. Bye-bye.

[00:23:47]We have this just in. The Senate impeachment court [music] is set to serve the summons to Vice President Sara Duterte. The summon orders Duterte to [music] appear before the impeachment court upon notice and gives her 10 calendar days to respond to the articles of impeachment. We'll bring you more developments as soon [music] as we have them.

[00:24:09]And that's all for today. I'm Robert Sen. Every day we'll help you make sense [music] of the financial choices and economic forces that shape everyday life. Thank you for watching. Keep it here on the Billionaire News Channel and always follow the money.

[00:24:42]>> [music] [music] [music] >> Mhm.