Moore/Butts -- Is Jason Kenney Crying Wolf?

Ajouté : 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]Are you ready for the more butts conversation? It's coming right up.

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[00:00:44]And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here along with James Moore and Gerald Buts.

[00:00:49]We're going to talk a little bit about well, let's see how we want to frame this. A year ago, we asked the question on a Morebuds conversation, what were the lessons from 95 in terms of a referendum?

[00:01:03]Is there a danger in waiting too long to get into the action?

[00:01:08]And in a way, that's one of the things uh that Jason Kenny, the former Alberta premier, had to say in the last few days that uh the federalist side better get their act together because the other side, you can claim it strong or not, but at least they seem to have an act of some sort and they're playing it. But is Ottawa playing it or are the federalist side playing it? or are Canadians who are interested in this story and the possibility of a referendum in Alberta, are they interested enough to be talking about it, to get involved?

[00:01:43]>> So, where are we on this? Um, James, why don't you start for us on this?

[00:01:50]>> I still think we're in the early innings of the of the match, for lack of a better, you know, analogy. Like, we we know what the nine questions are. We know what the petitioners aspire to have, but we don't have full clarity on um how things are are actually going to be. People are declaring victory, but we don't quite yet know. So to put to put your full sort of to marshall all of your resources and put them in the field for the battle is frankly a little bit early. Jason Kenny's call to action for more federalist voices to sort of stand up and make the case for Canada I think is is apppropo though. Um, I do I do think there's an important caveat though that it should be uh Alberta voices. Um, Albertans talking to Albertans about Alberta's future in a Canada with Alberta is really important. I I think a a British Columbia and a Nova Scotian and an Ontarian or a Quebecer telling Albertans that they need to recognize the virtues of Canada is probably not the way to go. That I really think that it needs to be Alberta voices that come and speak to this. I also think it's it's important that people who are not Albertans need to recognize that a lot of this while it seems it seems strange.

[00:02:57]A lot of this is well first of all it is democratic.

[00:03:01]Premier Smith has given people who are antagonists toward the status quo the tools to do all of this. They are playing by the rules that have been put in front of them. This is not a rogue element. This is not an effort at a unilateral declaration of independence.

[00:03:13]This is not um you know while it's not helpful and I don't like it and I wish it weren't happening. It's it is happening within the rules that have been put in front of us. There is sort of a difference in respect to the authorities that are that are currently in place. But also tensions within confederation being expressed politically and democratically. There's nothing new about this. When Steven Harper was prime minister, Danny Williams, premier of Newfoundland and Labrador said, "Take down the flags and said that Canada doesn't work and anybody ABC anybody but conservatives."

[00:03:42]And he was pretty robust and aggressive about it. Paul Wells, Paul Wells, Clyde Wells had his moments as well. Ralph Klein wanted to tear up the Canada Health Act and tell Ottawa to go jump out of this province and get out of there on on the biggest social program that exists in in our country. Um, you know, WAC Bennett had his moments with the federal government. We've, you know, obviously Quebec has had two referendums and tensions for generations. There there's nothing new about this. The the form and style in which it's going to present itself from Alberta, structured as it is, it's going to feel different.

[00:04:17]It's going to look different. The language will be different. The um uh aggressiveness will be different. The the fact that it's coming from the right is maybe a little bit different. Um but tensions within confederation of people who are saying that the status quo doesn't work. There's nothing new about it. It comes frank frankly from the left and British Columbia. It comes from indigenous voices out here. It comes from the environmental movement out here who says that you know the attempt by whether it's the Harper government or others to try to bulldo through and and to uh push through uh existing title and and political opinion is shows that Canada doesn't work like there it comes in different forms. uh when there was generally an informed consensus elite opinion view that the Meech Accord was good and then Elijah Harper stood up with an eagle feather in the Manitoba legislature and stopped elite like saying no uh to the way that Canada works is kind of part of Canadian history and democracy. It will be uncomfortable and it is uncomfortable and it is unhelpful and it's not good to the country. But the tensions of confederation do need to be expressed from time to time and and as much as I don't like it and I wish it wasn't happening, um I think people need to recognize it's going to look and feel different because Alberta has a different culture than the rest of the country and it'll express itself in ways that will feel abnormal and and really unhealthy. But Albertans have a right to express themselves and and they're they're taking this opportunity. As much as I wish they it wasn't happening.

[00:05:47]>> Aside from everything else you said, Paul Wells is going to be >> recorded into your little opening on this. Uh Jerry, what about you? Do you do you buy into everything that James just said here?

[00:06:01]>> A lot of what James said, uh especially the loc the local aspect of it. I think from a practical perspective, the way to defeat secessionist movements and let's not be afraid to call this what it is.

[00:06:14]It's a a small group of people who want to break up the country and leave it.

[00:06:18]And uh history will suggest that the way to defeat those movements is with local uh forces that articulate very clearly the benefits of the country that Alberta finds itself to be part of or whatever jurisdiction we're talking about at any given time. So I think the the practicality of James' advice is not uh can't be denied that if you want to be effective in countering this force, doing it locally is the best way to do that. Um and of course I think there are a lot of consequential local actors who have not yet spoken. Uh we talked a little bit in the warm-up about uh former Prime Minister Harper. I can imagine what he's thinking of all of this and being the strategic person that he is, I suspect he's hanging back and waiting for the optimum moment to intervene in this. I think what other Canadians outside of Alberta and um some of us are outside of Alberta, but have lots of family in Alberta, so we're only kind of partially outside of Alberta.

[00:07:22]We're watching what's happening to the Albertan members of our family, and I for one have many of them. um many of whom have the same last name as I do, for instance, and would have had their information leaked uh to people who probably mean them harm uh just because of their association with me. So, let's not under underappreciate the stress and strain that this event has put regular people under in Alberta. um knowing that someone who may for whether it's a um an abusive expouse or partner or someone whose political affiliations are frowned upon, there are lots of people in Alberta in the the uh days after the data leak became apparent who are wondering if they're safe. and as Canadians in the rest of the country and hopefully Albertans within uh Canadians within Alberta are reaching out to those people to comfort them, to let them know that they live in a safe community. But I I do think that uh James is right that we're in the early innings of this. Uh I'm quite concerned about it and as you know Peter I've written about this extensively in the Quebec context uh over the past couple of years but it's everything I said about Quebec is applicable to Alberta and um the one place where maybe I differ James is I don't I do think there is something new about this and the new part is that the country is under uh stress and strain from our neighbor which has said publicly at the highest levels that it would prefer to absorb us into uh the great republic to the south of us. And they're not afraid to put stresses and strains on our country in the form of support either tacid or direct. And I don't know if we will ever know the full extent to which um the darkest forces in American politics are supporting this movement both in Alberta and Quebec. But it would check out with behavior elsewhere. Um that when you want to weaken and demoralize uh um it's ridiculous to say it this way, but an adversary uh then what you do is you try and divide their camp internally. This is a strategy as old as uh the art of war. Um and in this case we can't we can't fully discount the I would say even probability that countries outside of Canada are active uh in this debate and that is not something that WAC Bennett or even Renie Lec uh or Jean Kryine had to contend with. It's the function of our the openness of our communications environment. People don't know where their information is coming from. There was a story on CBC last week about how much of the AI slop and means memes that are supportive of Alberta secession are coming from outside the country. Um so I guess my round up in the opening comments Peter would be I wish everybody would play by the rules that this is a local contest to be be decided by locals. I do not think that the forces looking to pull apart the country are entirely within the country.

[00:10:33]Well, see, this is why I'm a little bit confused. Um, in terms of you both your kind of the the way you opened up on the on this question um because it sounded for a moment there like what you were suggesting was that Jason Kenny was like crying wolf, but you both ended up your comments making it sound like there's a reason to cry wolf right now. Uh it's partly internal, it's partly external, but it's having an impact or could have an impact.

[00:11:08]>> Yeah. I think I think setting up a flare into the night sky in in the early part of of the political battle and say just so you know, those of you on the horizon, we might need you to to to join the battle. like ju just so you know we just so you know and you know and frankly uh the energy sector and corporate Canada and some of whom are kind of quietly liking the destructive uh nature of this because it sort of it sort of rattles the undrawn sword as they say about sovereignty or sovereignty association. You better do this. You better build a pipeline or like that that that sort of u footsy with this stuff. Yeah. That you need to frankly cut that out. Um like this matters. Um and and there there are there are people who are kind of sitting back and sort of grinning like trees cats kind of thinking look see this is going to this is going to be good this is going to be a like this will be helpful to our no um for a whole bunch of reasons not only because if you fly too close to the sun you can actually end up in the sun be careful number one number two is and I've used this analogy before but but I and I use it from time to time because I think it's appropriate um you know how you break a paperclip right you you take it and you bend it And then you bend it back and you bend it and you bend it back and then eventually it pops and it cracks and you can't get it back together. What was once a paperclip is now two pieces of metal that will never serve the purpose that it was before. And every time that you have uh a a a fracture of trust, a lie, a pipeline that doesn't get built, an environmental process that gets abandoned, a a sort of a slur against the or what every time you bend that paperclip, you bend it and bend it and eventually it will crack and it's gone.

[00:12:49]And th this is a massive bend. this like cuz when you have a referendum campaign for the next 3 to 6 months um people are going to say some things ugliness is going to be said some stuff that can't be unsaid will be said ugly things will be said about this country stuff online that people take to heart stuff will be posted memes will get made all to Jerry's point outside actors bad like all this sort of stuff kids going too far AI generated nastiness personal stuff like this will happen family members will divide against each other um like it it will get ugly and that paper clip is going to get bent and bent and bent and those wounds don't go away.

[00:13:28]This like this we talk about the permanent rupture between Canada and the United States. Is it Trump related?

[00:13:32]Yeah, of course. But there but there are a lot of Canadians who sit back and they say, "Wait a minute. 35 to 40% of Americans still like Donald Trump after what he said about us not sacrificing in Afghanistan after what he's we're not a real country. We're a joke and we we don't have anything."

[00:13:45]like really and like there a lot of I know there are a lot of Canadians who will never go back to the United States even if Donald Trump is gone and we're three presidents away from him that they have this permanent sense that I can't trust Americans because one in three or almost half of them still like this guy after he said all that stuff there there will be a version of that in Canada of people who say I'm not going to go to Alberta I don't want to go there I don't want to like and that's really toxic so so what we're about to embark on is going to be really really tragic I think in a lot of ways u and it's true It's it'll be true. And by the way, there's a parallel part to all this is that the Quebec election campaign is going to happen. Now, it's not a referendum campaign, but it's but it's it's sometimes a proxy for one because a lot of things will be talked about that won't just be who's best to govern Quebec, but there'll be shadows of this because this will over this will be happening at the same time as Quebecers are choosing their provincial government. And so, there'll be inferences between the two. And a lot of Albertans will say, "Well, wait a minute. We're we're doing what they've done and you're saying this about us.

[00:14:43]Why don't you say that about them? They have their and there'll be some cross comparison. That's not helpful. It's going to happen because it's unavoidable, but that's unhelpful.

[00:14:51]That's not good. So, so the bending of the paperclipip analogy, I think, is is what the country is going to go through for the next 6 months. And I just think it's really tragic that we are where we are.

[00:15:00]>> This is starting to sound pretty dark here all of a sudden. Jerry, >> I'm I'm conservative. You know, subscribe to the buttered side down toast of theory, right? because the the the odds of a piece of toast landing buttered side down are directly proportionate to the value of the carpet.

[00:15:19]I well I I'm I'm concerned about it Peter because when you look at examples in other parts of the world and I do think that the most apt example which is sort of the democratic event that small D democratic event that kicked off our era was the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom. And what you saw there was once the once the hockey game started, the refs left the ice and everybody was swinging their sticks as hard as they could at each other's heads with no regard for whether you could recover for the next game uh or whether uh the rules would ever be enforced on you. And I think the lesson that um uh malevolent actors toward democracies learn from the Brexit referendum is that once one of these national uh rending of governments starts then anything goes and it they're hard to police. They're huge emotions on all sides. Um and anything can happen and that's what worries me about it. Do I think that there's a majority of uh Albertans who want to separate from Canada? Absolutely not. Can I envision a circumstance in which the referendum campaign takes on the form that James is so uh obviously and eloquent eloquently concerned about?

[00:16:48]Absolutely. and does the yes side to whatever question is invented to serve the purposes of the Smith government's negotiating strategy with the Carney strategy can that um deliver results sometime somewhere in the mid30s yeah absolutely and once that happens that changes the facts of life in Canadian politics and the country as a whole is permanently weaker than at least uh permanently for the uh purposes of our lifetimes weaker uh because it's a fact on the ground. It's a new fact on the ground that has to be accommodated in just about every every arrangement between Alberta and its neighboring provinces, Alberta and uh all of the provinces in Alberta and the federal government. So, I worry about it a lot.

[00:17:39]I think that uh I I appreciate Premier Kenny doing former Premier Kenny doing what he's doing. I would also say, and James probably doesn't want to say this, though I suspect he would agree agree with it, there are a lot of people on the yes side who'd be cheering on Jason Kenny's involvement in this referendum campaign because he is at least in their view part of the problem. It's not quite as if Justin Trudeau were leading the uh the no side, but you know, it's probably a quarter turn there. And they their style of politics is to demonize people, make them seem like they're public enemy, number one, and then ride the negativity of that brand to build excitement for their own cause. And Jason, unfortunately, is an avatar of that on the ground in Alberta. So, I really hope that people who are um a little bit farther removed from daily politics, who command respect in all all walks of life in Alberta, who are not necessarily former politicians. I named former Prime Minister Harper because he's he still enjoys such great standing amongst a broad swath of Albertans and I suspect he'd be one of the few Canadians who could be persuasive to the Albertans who are on the fence about this and and every vote matters. If this referendum result comes in in the low 20s, then that's one fact on the ground. But if it comes in in the low to mid30s, that's a whole other set of facts on the ground that we'll be dealing with in a most unproductive way at the worst possible time. And whenever, sorry, just to finish on that point, James, >> whenever you're about to engage in something that benefits your enemies, uh, you always have to wonder about your enemy's involvement in bringing you to that point in the first place. And I for one am not conspiratorally minded, but it would not it would not surprise me at all if in the um if in the um the hot wash, as the spooks would say, after this event is over, we find out that um uh the MAGA movement was involved in this, the Russians were involved in this, the Chinese were involved in this.

[00:20:00]None of that would surprise me if we found out that they were amplifying the forces that would seek to break this great country apart.

[00:20:09]I was going to say about about the J I agree for sure in the last part um as well whether it's asymmetric or random actors or whatever that you know the um the digital world is what it is about Jason though um and and his involvement.

[00:20:25]I think I think you're right for sure.

[00:20:27]Um, and I think that's part of the reason why Jason has sort of had this call to action of saying other other voices join the fight because I there there are people who will never listen to me because Jason is so stridently anti-Trump because Jason, you know, does represent a government that uh that ended with unpopularity around vaccine mandates and other things that was, you know, inflamed a certain cohort of people who didn't agree with and I think that's part of the reason why he's inviting others to the table. I also think it's valuable to recognize now in the early part is that you you never know what argument is going to have purchased with what constituency of the province. Alberta is a you know the the fourth largest province. It's a large sophisticated province of well educated people who are very thoughtful and passionate about their politics. And for some people um the argument that's going to have purchase will be about staying within Canada because Mark Carney is getting progress on theou and just trust the process and we're going to get down the road and things will be better.

[00:21:19]Others it might be uh a patriotic call to recognize the past and don't sacrifice the sac you know don't don't throw away the sacrifices of the past in previous generations and what and and it'll be an appeal to the heart. Other people it'll be a tactical appeal. Other people it'll be um popping the balloon of the fairy tale that you're going to become a 51st state and have you know all the blessings of the the upside of being an American state. Like different arguments will find purchase with different people coming from different voices and articulated in different ways. There's nothing wrong in the early stages of sort of let all those arguments set flight and with different people different arguments will land. Uh and there's nothing wrong with that. And and for some people when you get to when you do exit interviews with people coming out of the ballot stations on on referendum day when they come out and they say you know how did you vote? And they'll say well why did you vote the way you did? You said well you know I I read this piece. Or somebody will say I just don't think now is the time. Or somebody will say because we have to and and I think that it's it's fine to have different levels of volume. It's fine to have different generations of voices, different approaches to this because you don't know what'll work with different people. And and I think that part of that and I and I think there's actually a lot of humility in what Jason is trying to do that he he recogn he's he's high EQ. He recognizes that he doesn't connect with a lot of people and but he wants other people who might connect with other people to stand up and find their voice and and get in the game.

[00:22:41]>> Um let me ask it this way. When we talked about this, whenever it was last year, it, you know, the possibility of a referendum in Alberta was still a distant question. The possibility of one in Quebec was was likewise distant.

[00:22:57]We're now what could be 5 months away from one in Alberta. 5 months is nothing. That'll go by in a flash.

[00:23:05]Um >> especially when two of those months are in the summer.

[00:23:09]>> Yeah, two of those months are in the summer. So what you know in a perfect world in your perfect world what what actually has to happen here? Um does it stay local?

[00:23:24]Does it become more than local? Does the prime minister get involved? And I guess he you could say he's got it right. He's you know he spent a good chunk of his early life in Alberta. is born in Northwest Territories, but he spent time in in Edmonton and he still very much feels that part of his Albertan roots.

[00:23:42]>> Um, does the prime minister have to get involved soon or is that sort of a last minute thing like uh you know the CR?

[00:23:52]>> Yeah. Yeah. Like no matter how I I have this saying again as part of my sort of conservative DNA, right, which is no matter how bad things are, it's always possible for things to get worse. Um, and you know, it it is possible that there are voices from outside of Alberta who who say, "Yeah, get the hell out of here. Had enough of you. You've, you know, the conservative movement has been effectively led by Albertans for 30 years. You had Steven Harper as prime minister for nine years." Like, you can get momentum. People say, "Just go away.

[00:24:18]Stop complaining." There was a version of that that happened with with regard to Quebec. Right? And there are a lot of people in the Reform Party movement who just said, "Yeah, vote yes. Get the hell out of here." That could come in a form that could be really ugly and gross, right? And that could be really So, it's possible for things to get worse. So, so the more voices that come on to counteract all that I as I said I think is valuable. Um the prime minister has to be involved. He can't not be involved. Um he is the the prime minister. He is the the first minister.

[00:24:44]His job is to unify the country. His job is to be a champion. And and it's not to come in and to give an I have a dream speech. It's not to come in with a cape and and just say, you know, get on my back. I will. No. I in my view because a I don't think that that's the nature of his presentation. I don't think that that's how he builds his credibility and why people who like him really like him.

[00:25:03]I think he does it by just daily demonstrations of competence and strength in in the in the benefits of Canada. Uh and it's the small things, it's the big things. It's the um uh you know, opening a new passport office.

[00:25:16]Yes, it's progress on theou, but I just think it's daily demonstrations of competence and confidence in the country. And and you you show you see that in in the underlying polling data.

[00:25:24]Mark Carney's personal popularity, the relative popularity of the Liberal Party of the province of of Alberta right now in spite of all these forces against it.

[00:25:32]Um um but yeah, he's the prime minister of the country and no prime minister is going to want um to have this as a as a pock mark on their time as as prime minister. So he has to uh be one of the leading faces of this. But I but I think with humility and and he can't and and but the another thing too is what has to be washed away from the federalist side of all this is condescension.

[00:25:55]Condescension has to go away. Um just as Newfoundlanders have had, just as Quebecers have had, just as British Columbombians have had, just as indigenous Canadians have had. There there's a reason why we are where we are. And it's not all the conspiracy theory and skull duggery and nonsense and Daniel Smith misplanning our hand and inviting them in and giving them too many tools. No, there there's a there's a body of evidence that there's a large constituency in Alberta who does not like Canada as it is right now structurally and the way things have been going certainly for the past 10 years or more and they're they're trying to find solutions.

[00:26:33]separation is the wrong answer to the right question which is why do they feel so distrustful and broken about the way in which Canada is and that's a much more complicated thing to solve over time but there there's a reason why people are angry it's just you know it's sort of like a marriage like there there's a reason why people can't get along and we we really have to find a way to talk about you have to find your language you have to find your way to get it out there and to talk about it otherwise we're not you're not going to get there and condescent has to go away.

[00:27:03]These are not a bunch of rubes who are just in love with Donald Trump, you know. Yeah, there there people who that that but that's the that's the surface.

[00:27:10]That's there's a structural failing here and that needs to be talked about and triaged.

[00:27:17]>> Jerry, >> yeah, I think you really do have to be careful in the attitude you convey. And there's nothing that the the forces that want to tear the country apart would prefer to see more than a negatively emotional Mark Carney get involved in this. And I think he has done um you would expect here our listeners would expect me to say this, Peter, but I think he's done a very good job of resisting those uh those forces since he's been prime minister. I also think his um the way he conducts himself in office is the opposite of what the secession secessionists in Alberta or anywhere else would prefer to see from a prime minister. They would like to see a Canadian prime minister that feels remote and distant and out of touch and uncaring about what people are feeling on the ground. And I think Prime Minister Carney has done an admirable job of not giving them that caricature to campaign against which is why Ottawa is the problem in the eyes of the movement in Alberta and not Prime Minister Carney. And having that generalized and not personalized and the person who happens to have the privilege of holding the office at any given moment I think is really productive and helpful. As for your direct question is the will the prime minister get involved? I think the prime minister is already involved and uh you could see this in the question he got asked uh when he was um uh uh installing our new governor general um or at least announcing the imminent installation of our new governor general. He was asked about the this topic in general and he talked about how there are laws that govern this kind of thing in the country and that we agreed to pass those laws as a parliament together what 30 years ago now so that we wouldn't face the chaos we almost faced in the aftermath of the Quebec vote in 1995.

[00:29:16]So there are laws and I think the duty of the federal government in this uh certainly in these early stages is to remind people that the country is worth fighting for that there's a positive vision of the future of the country. Uh we talked about this a couple of years ago. This is why I thought that rhetoric about Canada being broken uh was so dangerous because if you've got a bunch of federal politicians who are basically agreeing with the diagnosis of the problem being propagated by the promulgated by the uh the secessionist movement, then it's hard to disagree with them on the um remedies for that.

[00:29:55]Right. And while I do agree as a very proud Nova Scotian, I understand regional alienation in this country, every every province that does not begin and end with O uh has this feeling from time to time. And uh uh it some of it is based on real stuff. Some of it is based on political culture and the reality that serves the interests of the people who happen to be in power in those provinces. And I always remind my Albertan family when they're highly critical of uh Ottawa or things that happened from Ottawa that Alberta has been governed for all intents and purposes by one party for a century and that party should take responsibility for some of the problems that they are governing.

[00:30:44]>> Don't you like how Jerry is now basically >> claimed ownership?

[00:30:51]I like the way he's claimed ownership from just about all parts of the country. His Alberta roots he talks about his Cape Breton roots lives in Ottawa's true allegiance, right?

[00:31:04]>> Yeah. Like but by the way just what two things I'll agree with Jerry and one disagree that shot fired there at the end about Albertans have been governed by conservatives. Uh yes, but Albertans are very satisfied with being governed by conservatives proincially. They're not satisfied with the limits of the authorities that their provincial government is able to govern over within a Canada that seems to stifle their best aspirations. That's their perspective.

[00:31:31]So, you're right, Jerry, that they've been governed by, you know, nine out of 10 times conservative governments and they seem to be dissatisfied with Canada, but they seem to be really satisfied with the governments that they elect and reelect and re-elect again.

[00:31:43]What they're not satisfied with are the governments that they don't elect, which is the federal government. They were very happy under Steven Harper. there wasn't a separatist movement under Steven Harper but they seem to be very unhappy right now after the past decade they're not with with by the way with regard to you know you see this team Canada movement with regard to trade the one thing I will say is that I do believe that Prime Minister Carney who saw Brexit up close and personal and the consequences of Brexit up close and personal and as somebody who's learned about Canadian history this team Canada approach to trade with the United States I think you'll see that times 10 with regard to the these challenges because he is somebody who genuinely understands what sovereigntist movements can do in terms of u rapidly causing the disintegration of families and countries and and I think that he will genuinely try to find help and advice from people who are very thoughtful beyond the normal silos of sort of the liberal universe and I think that's something Canadians should be comforted by.

[00:32:40]>> Um I I've got to move on. We need to take our break as well. But the the the other thing that puzzles me and you kind of touched on it earlier is where's the business community on this and why why do they not appear to be saying anything directly about this?

[00:32:58]Because obviously nobody's going to be making big investments from the private sector while this question kind of hanging in the air and nobody really knows what's going to happen in Alberta.

[00:33:10]Well, I I think in part because they think, well, it's never really going to happen, so we can have some fun over here. But to my my point is, I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think a referendum will be successful. I don't think there's a pathway for Alberta to leave Confederation. You can't have a unilateral declaration of independence. There's no, you know, it's not going to I don't I don't think it can actually happen. But that doesn't mean there's can be can't be a ton of destruction along the way. And and as I said, that things will be said that can't be unsaid and that neighborhoods will be broken against each other. urb the urban rural divide in Alberta which is already really problematic in terms of governing the province let alone the country that's going to get exacerbated be made worse. So um so there there are problems with this. So I I think there's there's a foolhardiness about well we can sort of play games with this and sort of see if it'll it'll move the needle on some of the projects and things that we really care about. Um I I think it's it's really irresponsible citizenship.

[00:34:03]Jerry, last word on Well, I mean, look, the business community has never um to be diplomatic about it uh upfront about these divisive issues because as one of my favorite quotes on this, Michael Jordan was once asked why he uh why he isn't more outspoken about um racial politics in the United States. And he says he said that Republicans buy sneakers, too. And I think that that's true in the business community at large.

[00:34:31]They don't like to be front and center and I understand why they don't because they have customers on both side and sides and their responsibilities and employees and their responsibilities ultimately to their the commercial health of their enterprise their shareholders they're able to make the payroll. So the business community will never ride in and save the country in moments like this. It certainly hasn't in the past Quebec referenda and it won't in this case either. And while I do I take the slight admonishment from my British Columbombian friend here about uh what I said about the Alberta domestic uh political situation. But you can't and this is where you have to be really careful because the facts uh about how Alberta has prospered this century over the last 25 years. The beginning of this century, the country produced about 2 million barrels of oil a day and now we produce six. There's no other country other than the United States in the world that has increased its production either in real terms or as a percentage of its uh own production at the beginning beginning of the century that in an ideal world where we had a federation where um frankly people in Ottawa were proud prouder of it uh and there was more cooperation between local forces on the ground in Alberta and uh in Ottawa across the political spectrum. That would be a huge success story from one perspective. A lot of my friends in the climate community would not see it as a huge success story. But uh it is by any objective measure a um a stunning uh engineering and economic achievement that Canada has gone from 2 million barrels a day to six in 25 years. And you don't hear that anywhere.

[00:36:21]In fact, most Canadians don't even know that happened. And the reason they don't know it happened is because it serves the politics of everybody involved to not talk about it. And now we're at the end of a long period where we wish there were a there was a a a more common shared understanding of what has actually happened in that industry over the past 25 years.

[00:36:46]>> Okay, we're going to uh take a quick pause. We'll be right back after this.

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[00:37:23]And welcome back. You're listening to the latest of the Moore Butts conversations. James Moore, Gerald Buts with us. I'm Peter Mansbridge. You're listening on SiriusXM channel 167 Canada Talks or on your favorite podcast platform or you are watching us on our YouTube channel. Glad to have you with us. Um, topic two, and we don't have long for this one. Um cuz that was really quite good. The first half of this program, the first three quarters of this program, >> we'll get letters.

[00:37:53]>> We'll get letters. Oh yeah, we always get letters.

[00:37:55]>> Um the question is about Europe and Canada Europe connection. The prime minister was again in Europe the front part of last week. Um and I'm sure he'll be going back again and there's more and more talk of whether or not Canada should be joining the European Union.

[00:38:13]what those ties should be between Canada and Europe, which have always been significant. I mean, let's face it, it didn't suddenly happen, you know, in the last year or so. There have always been significant ties um in terms of our history with Europe, but this looks like it could be much more uh certainly in as a result of the situation between Canada and the United States. Uh do you see this happening? Is it a good thing? What are the risks?

[00:38:42]what are the pitfalls? Uh what are the bonuses of uh of something like this? So Jerry, why don't you start us in? Keep in mind we don't have a long time for this.

[00:38:52]>> Yeah. Really quickly, Peter, I think it is a positive sign. I think the prime minister was elected to deal with Donald Trump, which is very different from make a deal with Donald Trump, which is what his political opponents want to narrowly constrain his mandate to be. Uh those are very different things. And part of dealing with Donald Trump is opening up up other options for the country. And that that includes trade options, of course. It uh includes mutual security and intelligence uh sharing and gathering. It includes working together on huge issues that are going to have a material impact on the the pocketbooks and the daily lives of regular Canadians. And I think when you look around the world at mature markets, rich markets that could use uh more of our stuff and more of our participation, the European Union, uh for a variety of really obvious reasons, some of which you alluded to our shared cultural history and the fact that so many of Canadians can trace their lineage back to different parts of Europe, all the way up to the advantageous geography.

[00:39:58]The Atlantic Ocean is a third the size of the Pacific Ocean and it's Europe's a lot closer than Asia. And if you consider Europe one market and it's the sec depending on your metric the second or largest second or third largest market in the world. So all of those things point toward telling giving the prime minister signals that he should keep doing what he's doing. I think the danger long term is that it looks like we're trading putting all of our eggs in one basket for putting all of our eggs in another basket. And he's got to guard against that and to make sure he's got a hedge with the countries he's been doing um work with in Asia and in the Middle East and to make sure that you keep all of those things in balance. But look, I I don't see anything but upside in greater closer ties with Europe uh from just about every dimension.

[00:40:54]>> I agree. I I don't know that there's a lot of pushing towards market access. Frankly, the cultural barriers and the supply chain barriers and all that that that's a lot of spade work, right? There's 44 European countries, 27 of whom are members of the EU. we have a free trade agreement that Steven Harper negotiated that the previous previous government um um solidified and and and actioned. So there's a there's a cross party consensus this is a big opportunity.

[00:41:20]It's true, but but I I do think there's a little bit of sort of mythmaking about, you know, what the potential is here. In part because like there there are sort of two there's oversimplification, but there are two broad Canadian economies, right? There's the commodity economy that's actually been paying the bills for the past century. Jared just articulately talked about going from two to six six million barrels and and how that matters in this grow. Yeah. And Canada, a lot of Canada's prosperity has been hitched to that. And there's also the uh you know one-third of Canadians live in Ontario, but Ontario is 40% of the Canadian economy. The backbone of the Ontario economy is manufacturing and the backbone of that is the auto sector. Uh and steel and aluminum and that's is all related to trade with the United States.

[00:41:59]Uh the energy sector, agricultural exports, all of that is the United States. It's not Europe. It's not going to go to Europe. It's so it's so while it's good to expand, I mean, we already have a military alliance. We have NATO and an attack against one is an attack against all where European countries seem to be for now. I mean hopefully for the foreseeable future seem to be aligned to that. Well, that's about as ironcloud a commitment as you can get.

[00:42:22]You know, an attack against Jerry is an attack against me and attack against Peter's attack against Jerry. Like that's that's about as good an alliance as and a sort of military brotherhood as it gets. And it's and it's and it's a commitment that's been reaffirmed for a very long time. And we have a free trade agreement. What's other than sort of building the the the lines of business on a transactional way and getting sort of cultural alignment about doing business in a in a more thoughtful way and a proactive way and differing port capacity and all that like a lot of work is to be done but none of that stuff frankly in at least for the next 5 years 10 years 20 years is going to transplant the century more than a century's worth of infrastructural north south um opportunity that we have with the United States. So, it's good. It's important.

[00:43:05]It is what's And you know, a part of this, too, is is political, right? Is Donald Trump doesn't want us. Well, we don't want him, and we're going to find other people to sell our stuff to. Yes, for sure. Of course. But let's not be unrealistic and and over overstate what those what those shifts are going to be and and how long it's going to take to realize them. So, we have a military commitment, we have a military alignment, we have a deep cultural alignment, we have a prime minister who's sophisticated in those markets and understands where those choice opportunities are in the immediate term, medium-term, and long-term. All that is to the benefit of the country for sure.

[00:43:39]But the but the real benefit of this country is still the fact that the United States is our neighbor and we can do business with them and we have an agreement. We have Koosma. Koozma is not going anywhere. No matter what Donald Trump says about the coming renegotiations or or re-evaluations of the agreement, uh we still have a binding agreement that is deeply popular in the United States and in Canada and is massively accretive to our economy.

[00:44:00]So let's let's not overstate the opportunity.

[00:44:04]>> Are we overstating it, Jerry? I mean, >> no, I don't think James putting it the realistic way of looking at this >> opening, if we can even call it that, between Canada and Europe. Yeah, I think it is the real it is the realism view of Canada that uh the most important geopolitical fact on the ground for Canada has is and always will be has been is and always will be our 8 9,000 km border with the United States. And uh if you've if you don't manage that relationship well, you will be a failure as a government. And if you manage it well, you're well on your way to success. I think that's uh that's that's um as close to a basic truth in Canadian life as there is. I will however say as a a bit of a qualifier and to use those 2 to 6 million barrels uh as a an example in the United States over the same time period they went from about 3.5 million barrels to about 14. Right?

[00:45:09]And I I often say this to our Eurasia Group clients, one of the most underappreciated things that has happened in the in the 21st century anywhere is the United States becoming the world's largest exporter of oil and gas for the first time since the 1940s, right? And um we should be thinking about our own resource development in that context because the truth is and we saw it live last week. We're having this debate about which or maybe we build both but which pipeline we should prioritize a second one to the west coast or should we re um disin KXL uh the Keystone pipeline and try and make that happen?

[00:45:56]Well, there's a limited amount of capital, energy, labor, etc. that can go into projects of that size. And if you're thinking about the national interest of the country, uh should you prioritize prioritize another pipeline to the United States or one to markets in Asia? I think that that is a an honest and open debate that we probably should be having. and to draw the two topics of conversation together, Peter, is a lot harder to having to to have if one of the c one of the provinces that's most affected by that decision is um threatening to leave the country. So, it's it gets really difficult if the argument on the other side is do what I say or I will shoot the country.

[00:46:42]>> We uh we have time for a last word, James, from you if you if you want it.

[00:46:47]I I I do think that there's a there is also, by the way, on this file, as is often the case, I think there is there is also an east west divide about the the benefits of Europe. Um, you know, Quebecers understand it for a whole bunch of reasons that are nearer to the heart as but also to the wallet. Um, Ontarians, I think, do understand it.

[00:47:03]Atlantic Canadians certainly do understand it for a bunch of reasons that Jerry articulated. But in the West, like in British Columbia, we're not we're not shipping wood to Europe. Like there's no there's no sense that we're going to be doing that. All the mining projects, all those benefits are are all to to to the Asia Pacific and some to the United States, Alberta, like they all the conversation for now a generation has been about either u you know a pipeline to the north, a pipeline to the south, a pipeline to the west, energy east has been blockaded by by Quebec and they just there's no sense that that's really ever going to happen and it's almost kind of a political inflection point uh to sort of demonstrate that Canada doesn't work as opposed to a real solution. So everything in the west is about further west in Asia Pacific and Europe kind of seems like this um frankly a Mark Carney elitist um play as opposed to a practical solution to practical problems that's try they I think success of government Steven Harper there's a reason why he put Gordon Campbell in London as as as high commissioner there is to try to actually to bridge that conversation a pro business pragmatic premier from British Columbia in London to try to tell tell British Columbombians that there are opportunities here uh John Hans succeeded. He was in Germany for I think part of that was to try to sort of build the bridges between the bigger economies of Europe with the west coast of can. I think that's >> Ralph Goodale and Ralph Goodale.

[00:48:22]>> Ralph Goodale as well. Yes. So there you go. Right. So so so I think some of that needs to happen but I don't I don't think it's credible for Western Canadians where we do have a as we talked about the first part of the show.

[00:48:34]Um I don't think many British Columbombians, Albertans, um others think that um the European solution is going to help them with their daily lives. It's it's a nice to have, but not a need to have. America is a need to have.

[00:48:48]>> We're going to leave it at that uh for this week. Good conversation. Thanks to uh to both of you, Terry and to James uh both who are on the west coast of our continent this week.

[00:49:00]>> And we won't go further than that in describing where they are.

[00:49:04]or Jerry will have his passport checked.

[00:49:06]>> Yes.

[00:49:08]>> Uh we'll leave it at that. Uh thank you gentlemen. It's been great to talk to you and uh we'll talk again in a couple of weeks time. Uh I'm Peter Mansbridge for uh Gerald Buts James Moore. Have a great evening afternoon.

[00:49:23]>> Go Habs.

[00:49:24]>> Go Habs.

[00:49:24]>> Go Habs.

[00:49:26]>> They're they're going pretty good, I got to admit. Um but that'll do it for today. We'll talk again tomorrow right here on the bridge.