In Indian state politics, leadership transitions involve complex negotiations balancing personal political ambitions, party interests, and caste considerations, as demonstrated by the Karnataka Congress leadership discussions where Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's OBC identity and political legacy are weighed against potential successors like D.K. Shivakumar, with party leadership carefully managing messaging to avoid alienating significant vote banks while ensuring smooth power transitions.
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Karnataka CM Face-Off: Siddaramaiah vs DK Shivakumar In Congress High Command Meet | India TodayAdded:
On your screens are images from the breakfast meet that happened a couple of hours ago at the Karnataka Bhavan.
Siddaramaiah seated with all his top ministers, top aids coming together, perhaps figuring out exactly what will be the communication from the high command. At this point, we don't even know if the Congress top brass has taken the decision, but we know that they're going there's going to be one-on-one meetings first with Siddaramaiah and then with D.K. Shivakumar and then perhaps together as well if the Congress high command feels a need for that kind of a meeting. Let's be very clear that while this has played out for the last many months, both Siddaramaiah and D.K.
Shivakumar have been very civil in public. They've made it very clear that there is no animosity whatsoever and they're doing whatever it takes for the welfare of Karnataka. The messaging has been that governance hasn't taken a hit.
Behind the scenes, however, both have been lobbying hard. As far as Siddaramaiah goes, the last time around and I remember I was in Karnataka when all of this was playing out a couple of months ago, when it seemed like there would be a change. At that point, Siddaramaiah put his foot down and said, "No, I want to go ahead and ensure I remain the Chief Minister." Why? He wanted to go ahead and break the record of Devaraj Urs as the longest-serving Chief Minister. And that historic feat has been achieved. He's also gone ahead and presented the budget. So, all of those ticks perhaps in his bucket list has been done. So, many will say and question whether now the time is ripe for Siddaramaiah to go ahead and hand over the mantle to someone like a D.K.
Shivakumar, especially keeping in mind 2028. I'll bring in Nagarjun Dwarakanath once again on this. Naga, you know, we were having a conversation about the possibility of a third figure emerging as far as the CM race is concerned. And the reason there's been so much speculation over this, Naga, is also the fact that look, caste matters. Here you have an OBC face and perhaps that's the biggest calling card right now for Siddaramaiah. That as an OBC face as Chief Minister, Rahul Gandhi could perhaps be worried that if you remove him, that's the wrong kind of messaging being sent across in Karnataka. You bring in a Dalit face, and then you have a Dalit Chief Minister taking over from an OBC, which is the right kind of optics. Will a DK Shivakumar therefore fit into that bracket of optics is the question, which is why there's so much talk of a wildcard entry in G Parameshwara and Mallikarjun Kharge.
But the precedents are there. This is not the first time that there has been a Vokkaliga Chief Minister for Karnataka, right? SM Krishna from the same Congress party from 1992 to 2004 ruled Karnataka and with pretty successful tenure, and he's renowned Chief Minister of Karnataka. He's from the old Mysore region, from Mandya Madhur constituency.
He went on to be one of the most successful Chief Ministers that Karnataka has seen. So, the precedents are there for DK Shivakumar to be the Chief Minister because Vokkaligas are quite dominant also. Of course, the Kurubas are widespread across Karnataka, and that's the reason Siddaramaiah draws more strength from the Kuruba community because they're not concentrated like the Vokkaliga community just in the southern part of Karnataka, in maybe 10 to 12 districts. While the Kurubas are spread from the length and breadth of Karnataka, each constituency has around 8,000 minimum of such community members as vote bank. And certain constituency, they go up I mean above up 50,000 people, and that's the reason why he's such a renowned leader because his vote bank is spread across Karnataka, and not just Kuruba. The moment Kurubas come through, the smaller OBCs also through will come through. And now Rahul Gandhi off late in the last few years has been talking about OBC and the rights for them. He's been champion of the cause, you know, speaking of why there no OBCs in a bureaucracy, in cabinet. And with speaking of that language, would he have the courage to remove one of the tallest OBC leaders that the Karnataka has ever seen? Back then was Devaraj Urs in '75, back in '70s, and now we have seen Siddaramaiah twice time and again since 2006 he's been the chief minister twice, leader of opposition twice. He's been campaigning in Kerala, Tamil Nadu whenever the party wants. That's what his aura and his stature is about. But the the party also feels that there needs to be a transition of power.
That's what the conversation would have would be today. Would chief minister would want to retire in 2028? Would he want to be contesting once again? Or what would be his opinion if D.K.
Shivakumar takes over?
Would party be okay? And if they remove Siddaramaiah, how do they compensate for the vote bank? Do they promote another OBC into deputy chief minister post or maybe the party president post would be given to an OBC or a Dalit? All this permutation combination will have to be done. They That's the reason why I said they will have to go back to the drawing rooms and maybe put in faces and names and community and do the caste engineering on paper first before they take any decision.
After do that, Rahul Gandhi will be very very mindful of it. You're right, Nag, in highlighting that S.M. Krishna was a very successful and very popular Vokkaliga leader, Vokkaliga chief minister. That by itself isn't the issue. The issue is that Siddaramaiah has represented the Ahinda block for the last many decades really in Karnataka for the Congress as well. And the Ahinda block it's a term in Kannada essentially that refers to minorities, OBCs and Dalits. So that massive block you could say accounts for about 55% in Karnataka.
So it's a huge block which Rahul Gandhi will not want to offend and so will tread carefully on how if there's going to be an announcement is made the right way. It's sending across a message that Siddaramaiah in no way is dissatisfied, is disgruntled, that he got his due, that his legacy is kept alive and that he is given due respect. If there's going to be a change, be very very clear that that won't mean Siddaramaiah being sidelined. He's going to be given a power position of his choice. That could be a role in Delhi, it could be a role within the party. It could be uh you know, leading the minority grouping for the Congress or could be a Rajya Sabha position as well. What we can tell you right now, and we get our reporters up from Delhi, is that Rahul Gandhi is now left for the meeting with D.K.
Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah.
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