Two Potential Storms in the Pacific, Plus More Rain for Hawaii | Hawaii Weather Update

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]It is June 1st, 2026, and we're tracking a couple of disturbances out in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which could become the first name storms of this hurricane season. Hey everybody, meteorologist Drew Davis alongside with you. We've got a no hype weather forecast video for you today, like we do every weekday on this YouTube channel.

[00:00:17]Let's just get right into it and show you what's going on outside the window.

[00:00:20]Thank you for sticking with me over the last couple of weeks. I have not done an update video in a while. Um, some of my other responsibilities at H&N have kind of taken priority, but we're back. We're going to try and get to where we're doing these more often, or at least try to get to that every weekday promise that I have here on this YouTube channel. Let's take a look at what's going on outside. We've got a little bit of moisture moving in from the east.

[00:00:42]That's giving us a better chance for showers out there. We've been seeing some rainfall over on Hawaii Island. You can even see rainfall in Hilo, parts of Puna. It's been pretty consistent rainfall throughout the last couple of hours over the eastern and northeastern side of Hawaii Island. A lot of this moisture that was along the Hamakua coast has started to move up closer to Maui. Maui's going to see more rainfall as we're going into this evening. Even seeing a few showers starting to get closer to the south side of Maui. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some rainfall in Kihei going forward. Mulika Laya pretty quiet. And as you move further westward, still pretty quiet.

[00:01:13]But this band of moisture, this little pocket of moisture is going to continue moving over the state. So giving us a better chance for showers out there the next couple of days. Live cam is down.

[00:01:23]It's been a while since I've done this.

[00:01:25]Let's move on. Having some technical difficulties, but right now it's 86 degrees at the airport. East northeasterly is around 13 mph. Humidity around 55%. Seeing a few showers over the eastern half of the state. And that's what we're tracking really.

[00:01:39]Higher chance of showers over the eastern half of the state. More big Southshore surf. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another high surf advisory go up and hurricane season begins today.

[00:01:48]So, we're going to start out with that.

[00:01:50]We're tracking the tropics. This is a graphic you have not seen since the beginning of this YouTube channel when we started uh last year with Hurricane Kiko. That's what made me create this YouTube channel because I wanted to give you a more thorough breakdown of what's going on. We're watching a couple of areas out in the eastern Pacific that uh we're keeping an eye on. They don't look like they're going to impact Hawaii, but still something that we need to be aware of uh as the eastern Pacific is going to start turnurning out more storms with very warm waters out there. Let's just show you what we're tracking. The National Hurricane Center is currently watching two areas out there. One with a very high chance for development over the next 7 days. A 90% chance of development over the next 48 hours, a 60% chance of development. This is the one that's highlighted in red right here. And then also another one with a 40% chance of development over the next seven days. These don't look like they're going to impact the state of Hawaii, but it is something that just a reminder that hurricane season is out there. We could see a tropical depression or tropical storm form out here in the far western eastern Pacific.

[00:02:49]It's going to fall apart as it tries to move into the central Pacific with some cooler waters out there. Also, some shear protecting the island chain. And then as we go further in time, potentially some models are hinting at a much stronger storm developing out in the eastern Pacific. Just showing you the sea surface temperatures out there.

[00:03:05]Sea surface temperatures. I want to show you what's going on because again out there, this is what's kind of contributing to uh El Nino. Again, pretty warm waters out in the equatorial Pacific. Let's just click around. Uh the eastern Pacific right now is baking. 89° nearly 90° temperatures out there.

[00:03:22]Further west you go, it starts to cool down a little bit. You can actually see the waters around Hawaii a little bit cooler, closer to that just below 80°ree range, 80 degrees Fahrenheit. And again, that's not conducive to tropical storm development. Typically, you need around 80° for these systems to be able to get enough energy. So, the closer you get to Hawaii, the the faster these storms are going to fall apart. Cooler waters the further north you go. And again, now here with El Nino forming, you see those waters starting to get pretty warm along the equator and out in the eastern Pacific. So, we're watching this pretty closely. Also playing into this, if you know anything about severe weather season out here, we've got pretty strong wind shear around the islands, which typically protect the island chain, and that's uh expected to be the case over the next week or so. Really no break in the wind shear. We're going to be seeing pretty strong wind shear. Just a difference between the winds aloft and the winds at the surface. If there's a big difference, it kind of tears the storms apart.

[00:04:19]regularly one of the reasons that these storms as they get closer to the island chain just completely get shredded apart. All right, let's take a look at the surface pressure chart if the data will load in. You can really tell that we haven't done this in a while. There it is. We've got kind of weak high pressure out there hanging out just to the north of us. This is going to continue to build in strength back to the north of us going forward. You can see this lower pressure out there uh developing as potentially we see some activity from the tropics. It's going to fall apart out there and we've just got high pressure just to the north of us.

[00:04:48]Air is rotating around this high pressure pretty consistently. Um it's going to be rotating clockwise giving us those trade winds into Friday and Saturday. Kind of the pattern over the next week or so. Mid-level flow a little bit higher up in the atmosphere. We've got ridging going on just to the north of us kind of inhibiting some rainfall just off to the northeast. Little weak disturbance out there Wednesday into Thursday. This is kind of one of the reasons we're seeing a few showers out there right now. Just some moisture moving in from the east, moving west, ridging just to the north of us as well going into this week and kind of inhibiting rainfall chances, but weak disturbances hanging around out there.

[00:05:22]So, kind of a better chance for showers the next couple of days with that hanging around the state. Uh upper level flow kind of a similar pattern. We've got ridging going on and then this disturbance just off to the east. This is kind of bringing us those showers.

[00:05:35]It's going to continue shifting a little bit further westward going into the back half of this week, then moving back up towards the north. So, so let's show you what's going on in our First Alert Future radar out there. Scattered showers. You can kind of see better chance for rainfall. This is the European weather model kind of hanging out over the state the next couple of days and maybe Thursday and Friday we see another round of rainfall, but it's going to be mostly windward, mostly Malcolm. Not going to be for everybody, but a better chance for rainfall the next couple of days with that moisture hanging around the state. Let's actually show you the high resolution model. This is the graph, a model run by IBM. This is run inhouse. So, you're not going to be able to find this on a website like Tropical Tidbits or the College of DuPage. You can see more rainfall over the eastern half of the state. So, Honuka, Hamakul Coast, Hilo, Upper Hilo, Puna. This is going to also shift further westward towards Maui. Maybe some heavier rainfall embedded in this system into Tuesday and Wednesday. Then going into Wednesday and Thursday, you've got scattered showers. Not as much rainfall, a little bit drier in the afternoon. Local view of the European weather model, you see some heavier rainfall over the eastern half of the state. Overnight, you might see some heavier pockets of rainfall over Windward, Oahu, and Kauaii. These global models again don't do a very good job understanding the terrain. Uh it's just so much varying terrain and short um distances. It's kind of just giving us the trends. Really, the high resolution model gives us the best uh understanding of where exactly this rain is going to fall. You can see kind of a wet pattern into this week with those disturbances just off to the northeast of us. Things same thing happening in the GFS. Better chance for rainfall, higher chance for showers, maybe some heavier rainfall over East Maui and East Hawaii Island.

[00:07:16]Let's actually take a look at rainfall accumulation over the next 48 hours. You can see maybe some heavier rainfall 2 to 3 in. Hilo in this particular run is getting 5 inches of rainfall over the next 48 hours. Nothing they're not used to. Drier the further west you go. You can see that only half an inch in Honlay. Not much in Honolulu. If we do see rainfall, it's going to be in the mountains and over Windward Oahu.

[00:07:39]Rainfall totals from yesterday, May 31st, 2026. Can see nearly two inches of rainfall in Hilo and upper Hilo. Little bit drier the further west you go.

[00:07:49]Windward Maui Hana saw some rainfall out there dry over Molai and also over Lai moving down to Oahu saw some saw some showers along the Kala mountain range and Kauaii similar over Mount Allay Ali now our winds outside right now pretty breezy kind of hybrid in places we've been seeing westerly winds in in Latu city earlier today westerly winds in Kyloakona light winds over in Hilo uh and this is actually going to be blowing a lot of the vog fog across the rest of the ch the island chain. We had a uh we had the eruption from Kilawea today. An ashfall advisory still in place for parts of the big island with Pelleles hair and ash. Uh you can see a lot of the trade winds sticking around in the next couple of days. Wednesday afternoon 15 to 20 miles per hour. Maximum wind gust over the last 24 hours. 30 miles per hour in town. Nearly 40 in Caholui.

[00:08:45]Let's actually break down that vog forecast to show you what's going on.

[00:08:48]You can see as we're moving forward into Tuesday, vog across the entirety of the island chain. And of course with the recent eruption, there is going to be a higher concentration of the sulfur dioxide out there. So if you are sensitive to this kind of stuff, just a heads up that it's coming your way. Highest concentration is going to be around Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and Kyloakona side of the Big Island.

[00:09:12]starting to clear out Thursday into Friday. I did mention more surf on the way. Our first alert surf, let's show you north facing shores 1 to three, west facing shores 6 to 8, south facing shores 8 to 12 for your Tuesday morning.

[00:09:26]And east facing shores around 2 to 4 with low that low trade swell. Again, it's not as big as has been. our swell forecast. There's the the energy moving in. Likely going to trigger high surf advisories and maybe another large northwest swell moving in as we're going into this weekend. Island by island we'll go. You'll see a lot of rain icons out there. It's going to be pretty scattered. Mostly focused windward, but you can see showers in Kaha Hannipe. A better chance for rainfall tomorrow. 81 in Kaneohay 81 in Hawaii Kai. Capo around 84. 86 in Honolulu. Scattered showers, partly sunny and breezy over Maui County. 85 in Cahului, 85 in Kihei.

[00:10:07]Moving down to Kyua, Kona side, 87 out there. Pretty warm. It is warm, guys. I just skipped I just skipped over uh Man, I'm I'm out of practice, guys. Let's run through this really quickly because I want to uh make sure we show our neighbors over in Hilo. Um so Hilo side Puna Paja showers some heavy rainfall possible in the next couple of days. Uh the graph showing five inches of rain in uh Hilo it is possible uh and that's over 48 hours and some heavy rainfall possible all along the northern portions of Hawaii Island. You can already start seeing some of that rainfall moving in.

[00:10:49]So thank you for tuning in. I once again I apologize that I kind of fell off the face of the earth. just we're pretty busy at H&M. We're working on the hurricane special. Lots to do and um I'm going to try and get back to doing this more regularly. Thank you so much.

[00:11:07]Have a wonderful rest of your Monday.

[00:11:12]What what we say? And uh see you tomorrow, weather permitting. This has been meteorologist Drew Davis.