Expert breaks down U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal and questions over nuclear talks

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]The US and Iran have reportedly reached an agreement. It extends the ceasefire and it reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:00:07]Also lays the groundwork for talks to end Iran's nuclear program. North Central College political science professor William Mock joins us now.

[00:00:14]Good to see you, professor.

[00:00:16]>> Good to see you.

[00:00:17]>> Can we really believe after all of these starts and stops and the fractures to the ceasefire that this deal will actually work?

[00:00:26]>> Well, I wouldn't until we actually see it and both sides agree to it. We're in a situation now where you've got both President Trump and the supreme leader of Iran like we're not sure whether they're going to sign. I think eventually they will. We'll get a formal agreement on this stage, but it's also important to note that this is really just getting us back to the starting line. This is getting us to a point where the Strait of Hormuz is opened and and the United States removes the blockade of Iran and then you begin the process of negotiating on the really hard stuff, which is the Iran, you know, enrichment, the highly enriched uranium, sanctions, all that stuff. So this first stage of agreement just gets us to the stage where we can really tackle the more difficult issues.

[00:01:04]>> And it should be noted the US military is going to stay in the area and they're going to make sure that those Iranian ports remain closed until this deal moves forward. So President Trump is, you know, edging his bets. He's he's watching this closely.

[00:01:17]Iran is suffering economically and hanging in the balance for them, as you noted, billions of dollars in frozen assets. Do you think unfreezing those will be enough to get them to extinguish their nuclear program?

[00:01:30]>> I think it'll go a long way, right? So we think about all states have interests here and Iran wants to get the oil moving again. They want to have those frozen assets removed. They also want to have sanctions removed. So so they have a clear interest set here. The United States also has a clear interest set.

[00:01:45]They want the Strait of Hormuz open.

[00:01:47]They want a long-term agreement on enrichment. So both sides have an interest in moving towards an agreement.

[00:01:52]The question is how do you get there?

[00:01:55]And it's it's really difficult to do.

[00:01:56]We're seeing all of the challenges just to open the Strait of Hormuz. When you start thinking about those nuclear issues and sanctions and all those other things, the political dynamics, the domestic politics, I think that second stage is even more difficult than the first stage will be.

[00:02:10]>> And what how do we know that they're not going to give the money that is unfrozen to their proxies like Hezbollah that targets Israel?

[00:02:19]>> No way to know, right? And that's that's part of the challenge. And I think what the Trump administration is realizing, uh Trump was very very critical of the Iran nuclear accord, the JCPOA in 2015, because he said, you know, that provided funds to Iran. But the reality is there's certain sort of central mechanisms. If you're going to get Iran on board, if they're going to have an agreement, it's going to require some sort of compensation or unfreezing of assets or a removing sanctions, right?

[00:02:43]And so he's sort of stuck in this moment where he's either got to decide to give them these funds which they can use for whatever purposes they want or to not have an agreement, right? So, he's really stuck in this difficult place and I think that's what's pulling him both back and forth in terms of is he want a deal, does he not want a deal?

[00:02:57]>> I want to switch now to a discussion on Cuba. Obviously, 90 miles away from the United States and Axios is reporting that that regime that that government could crumble as early as this summer because they are also under really dire economic straits there. The US has cut them off essentially.

[00:03:17]Do you think that the pressure from the United States, the potential for crumbling will pressure them into a regime change?

[00:03:25]>> It's a really great question. It is it is the clear position of the Trump administration. It's actually been the position for a number of US presidents going back through history. But the Trump administration is this complete oil embargo is just really hurting the the Cuban economy and the situation is quite dire there. The question, as you noted, will that pressure translate to a regime change? Now, the regime in power does not want to give up power. So, in some ways it comes back to are the people willing to overthrow it? Are those in the in power willing to leave?

[00:03:54]Uh the Does this happen just through economic pressure or does the United States follow Venezuelan model and bring troops in? So, there are a lot of unanswered questions. I think the the Trump administration really would love to see this happen. It's difficult to do and I think Trump is probably reluctant to use military force. So, certainly the conditions are right. Whether that actually happens, I think we have to sort of watch and wait and see.

[00:04:15]>> What could Cuba under democracy look like? Do you think?

[00:04:21]>> all of us would say it's wonderful, right? You know, the regime has been repressive. I think nobody is arguing that the the Cuban regime is a good one.

[00:04:27]Those transition points are often very very difficult largely because Cuba has targeted and eliminated all opposition forces in Cuba itself. Most of the leading opposition forces are probably in in Miami right now. So, it would be a really complicated transition, but I think many of us would love to see that.

[00:04:44]Hopefully like a peaceful transition where you could once again return self-determination to the Cuban people, move that country toward democracy, all wonderful things. The challenge is getting there, right? We've seen a lot of attempts throughout history, whether it was Iraq or even Iran, getting that regime change often proves much more difficult in practice than in theory.

[00:05:03]>> All right. William Muck, thank you so much, sir. Good to see you as always.

[00:05:06]>> Thanks for having me.