Political leaders who form coalitions with fragile majorities must quickly secure a vote of confidence and strategically expand their support base to maintain power, as demonstrated by C. Joseph Vijay's situation as Tamil Nadu's first Tamil-born Chief Minister, who inherited a budget deficit and must navigate between traditional Dravidian parties while building his own political coalition.
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PM Modi Congratulates Vijay on Taking Oath as Tamil Nadu’s New Chief Minister | NewsX追加:
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tweeted, and he has said, "I quote here, congratulations to Thiru C Joseph Vijay on taking oath as Tamil Nadu Chief Minister. Best wishes for his tenure ahead. The central government will keep working with the Tamil Nadu government to improve the lives of the people." Uh so, this is in fact something that even the Prime Minister has now congratulated him. Uh let me in fact go across to Gautam Mukerjee, who's a senior journalist who's also joining us on the broadcast. Welcome, sir.
A very good morning to you as well. A very historic moment. That aura that Vijay was exuding seems to, you know, come across the even outside the television boxes for people who are witnessing it from Delhi over here. And obviously, but how far can charm last, uh like Mr. Narayan pointed out, he stated in his first speech as the Chief Minister, he's inheriting a government that has a deficit in budget, and he's promised he's made a lot of promises in the manifesto. How far can that go, sir, on just charm and aura?
Well, his popularity is astounding, you know, uh it is so strong that neither the ADMK nor the AIADMK dare uh try and upset his apple cart, because the people will not accept it.
He has shown a lot of grit to wait for these ones and twos to come in.
He's gone again and again to the governor. Finally, he has managed to cobble it together, but he has done it without leaning on the ADMK or the AIADMK. So, first things first, that's good.
The nine people that have sworn in with him makes a beginning. Of course, he'll have to expand his his cabinet, and he's young.
He's only 50 odd years old or less.
He, you know, has the backing of the people.
You know, it has to be said that almost every state however industry friendly like Tamil Nadu it is is always in a massive debt situation.
Uh you know, they they do not generate internal revenue. They're dependent on They generate internal revenue, but sufficient. And they depend on central funds to keep going.
And so, fixing the deficit is not an easy task. They have to rev up the internal revenue generation to quite an extent.
Uh It is entirely possible that Vijay will strike out in a different manner from the two Dravidian parties who have held power in Tamil Nadu for you know, decades.
He is the first Tamil born chief minister.
Which is something to note because the others have come from Kerala and so on.
They are not Tamilians.
Neither the AIADMK nor the DMK are born Tamilians. Vijay is.
So, that's an advantage, and I think the young people who have voted for him know it.
To get the kind of advice he needs, he can draw upon a lot of wise men, not only in the state, but nationally and internationally.
So, that should not be a problem. Now, the only thing is he's got a very fragile majority.
So, he has to work on expanding this majority.
How will he do it? Will he get the support from breakaway factions two-thirds of either AIADMK or DMK uh voluntarily? You know, what happened with the AAP, Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi, uh in the Rajya Sabha, where two-thirds, seven out of 12, I think, broke away and would be accepted. So, if something like that happens, he is uh tenure of 5 years and more, depending on his performance, is guaranteed. But, right now teetering with one or two majority, 118, I think he's got 120 or 121.
This is a fragile situation that could break at any point. Of course, if it lasts up until he does the uh vote of confidence in the house, nobody can displace him for 6 months.
So, uh first things first, go to the vote of confidence ASAP.
Obtain that, then uh work on it for the next 6 months to try and expand his base, his number of MLAs that are working with the TVK either inside or outside the government. Uh of course, if two-thirds of anybody leaves their present perch, they will be looking for loaves and fishes of office and I think Vijay is quite aware of that and may be able to work on it to solidify his his tenure.
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