The Crucial Demographic Trump is Shockingly Losing That Could TRULY Hurt the GOP in the Primaries

Added: 2026-05-18

[00:00:00]What are you thinking right now? I heard you on your show. We played a clip, I don't know, two weeks ago saying you were seeing a potential more than ever for the Senate to go blue in these midterms. But since then, we've had redistricting wins on team red, and I don't think the momentum's changed exactly. The polls are still very bad for Republicans, especially for Trump.

[00:00:28]But has anything changed your mind? How are you looking at the midterms as of today?

[00:00:32]>> Well, in terms of the Senate, it's still race by race, but if it were today, the Republicans would lose the Senate because the polls, as you've said a couple times, are just a disaster. So, a lot of these races would fall to the Democrats. But with a little stabilization, uh I think it still goes back to a big challenge for Democrats because they have to basically run the table, hold three races, win three, and then win one more. Uh, and right now I, you know, I I look at Michigan where Democrats are poised to nominate someone who I think is basically unelectable in Maine where I think in the end Platner will prove to be unelectable. Unless I'm just really misreading the main electorate. And if those two go Republican, one one would be a Republican hold and one would be a Republican win, then then De Republicans will hold the Senate. But the environment has to change for that to happen. But it could. On the Republican side, redistricting has made it less likely Democrats take majority. Uh but they're still favored to and we'll have to see how many races end up actually being competitive. But Republicans have to fix Yeah. in the House. Republicans have to fix this environment problem.

[00:01:33]The president's approval rating, how people feel about the economy, the price of gas. If they don't fix that, it doesn't matter how much money they raise or how unpopular Democrats are, then they'll lose control of both chambers.

[00:01:46]>> Because even though they've gained some 14 seats in the redistricting, you know, you could be looking at, if you look at 2018, Republicans lost 40 >> House seats, like if the margins are that big and the approvals are that low, >> no redistricting is going to save them.

[00:02:01]So, they actually have to start addressing some of the concerns of the voters. This just in, we've got a couple of polls. None of them is good news for the Republicans, unfortunately. But, um, here's one from, let's see, uh, pulling it up.

[00:02:21]Brand new New York Times poll. Dan Feifer of team Obama biased, but says for what it's worth, this poll points toward a shellacking for the GOP driven by Trump's putrid polls and unpopular war with Iran and anger about his economic policies. But the reality in the cross tabs he writes is even worse.

[00:02:41]And here's why. And he goes through, look, he says he has an overall approval rating of 38%.

[00:02:48]But he says it's what h what is happening with the voters who won him the 2024 election that is making this particular Democrat happy. With Latino voters, uh he's underwater 51 points.

[00:03:05]With voters aged 18 to 29, young voters, he's underwater 57 points. With independents, he's underwater 43 points.

[00:03:15]So, in other words, that's the difference between his approval and disapproval. The disapproval is much higher. And those were votes that helped deliver him the White House. Mark, we've seen this now in poll after poll. We've even seen this seen this with the white working class. Um, that's in a new poll today showing the white working class in yet another poll is now showing an overall disapproval of President Trump.

[00:03:41]The uh this is CBS poll in February of 2025.

[00:03:45]Trump with that group, white white non-ol voters, he had an approval rating of 68% and disapproval of 32%. So he was plus 36 with them. In May, this this month he has an approval rating with this group of 46. Disapproval now of 54.

[00:04:04]He's now underwater eight with them.

[00:04:07]eight, which is a 44 point swing to the negative for Trump with the white working class, which is without a doubt Trump's base. You know, one of the things I think so important in if you want to be on the national town square is to not hide from the truth. If you're a huge Trump supporter and you think in general the polls are fake news, you should wise up because the the the results you just read of one poll match private Republican polling almost exactly in almost every case. Every poll is a little bit different, but the general numbers are the same. And that's why again Republicans say we got to fix the environment. We got to get our folks who supported Trump in 2024 uh to feel better about the economy in particular. until and unless that happens, this will be a big wipeout. But there's a lot of time and if if Democrats uh if Republicans can get things people feeling a little bit better, then they can execute their plan, which is to say to folks, don't make this a referendum on Donald Trump.

[00:05:08]Make it a choice between two sides. And you know, the Democratic brand is is as popular as a as a rat at a picnic.

[00:05:15]They're just not uh right now being held account being held accountable for that because um because there so much focus as is always the case is on the incumbent and people's very sour mood about the economy.

[00:05:28]>> Yeah. Yes. Um if you staying with the CBS poll, listen to this. Is your income keeping up with inflation? Yes, it is.

[00:05:36]23%. No, it isn't. 77%.

[00:05:41]77% of the electorate says their income is not keeping up with inflation. That's >> dire.

[00:05:48]>> Uh gas prices have been a financial hardship and difficult an inconvenience but not difficult or your finances have not been affected. 59% say a hardship and difficult. That's 60% of people basically saying >> no it's been very tough for me.

[00:06:06]>> Yeah.

[00:06:06]>> Only 26% say inconvenient but not difficult. and only 15 say not affected.

[00:06:11]It's not an issue for me. Um, this is interesting. Are you getting a clear understanding of the situation in the in the straight of Hormuz? 69% say I have no clue what's happening in the straight. I do not know. The answer is no. Only 31% say yes. Um, let's see. How do you feel about the Trump administration's approach to the economy? You've got I got to do math here. 40 70% say they're either frustrated or angry.

[00:06:43]How do you feel about Trump's approach to the economy? 70%. I am frustrated or I'm angry.

[00:06:51]Only 30% say they're enthusiastic or satisfied. Breaking down to 11% enthusiastic, 19% satisfied. And the inflation numbers are the worst of all.

[00:07:02]Like whenever you start asking the electorate at all about inflation, they all say that's the number one thing they hate. And they're blaming Trump at this point. You know, the old it's Joe Biden who created it. It's not working, especially because inflation was a lot lower when Trump took office than it is right now. So, I don't know, Mark, if they call you in there, and they could, because everyone respects Mark Halpern's view on politics and America, what what do you tell them to do to to turn this ship around?

[00:07:32]>> Well, the 11% who aren't bothered by the president's economic policies, I can tell you one thing about them. They all use grape pon mustard.

[00:07:39]>> Um, the the people who are doing the people who who got rich during COVID are getting rich now. And this is not a partisan thing. It's not an anti-Trump thing. It's just a fact of our economy.

[00:07:49]when things go poorly like during COVID for the middle class and the working class, rich people get richer. We've had it in CO, we're having it now. And that's that's just the optics of it are horrible, but the reality of it is horrible. I think the big problem for the president before he can move on to messaging and talking about the Democrat's position on trans and other issues. He's got to end the war. And I gotta tell you, I've never seen a situation like this where I don't see from talking to lots of smart people every day, I don't see the way out unless Iran caves in. I don't see the way out. And and that's a problem because the clock's ticking towards the midterms.

[00:08:29]>> That's not good.

[00:08:30]>> No, >> I agree with you, but it's I was hoping you were going to deliver different news because >> there it is. It's become like they're in intrigent and they're not >> they're not buckling.

[00:08:44]>> Trump keeps saying it. It's like please stop. Okay, just please just stop. Stop stop stop. Like it's like the Cuba thing. Like we can handle the truth. We can see it's very tricky, very difficult. It's it there's no point in undermining the value of your own word because we do need to trust our president by continuously telling us they've caved, we've won, and it's over.

[00:09:04]when here we are weeks and months later, they haven't caved. We haven't won. It's not over. We would love for those things to be true, >> right?

[00:09:12]>> Um, >> well said.

[00:09:14]>> I don't know, Mark. I mean, what what do you think? Have you heard anything about how they feel internally in at the White House and the Pentagon about the Iran problem?

[00:09:24]>> Right. So, there's two uh areas that the hopeful people site. One is the thing the president and Scott Besson have been talking about for weeks that Iran's going to run out of storage capacity for its oil and that that will cause them to cry uncle because at that point they're not making money selling oil and they'll have to shut down their oil facilities and if you shut them down it's virtually impossible to start them back up with their great expense. That hasn't happened yet but the president and Scott Besson have been promising it for a while. Maybe that'll happen. The other is Iran has made a counter offer. It still falls far short. The administration says what would be acceptable. But the optimistic administration say this shows Iran knows it's losing. Iran knows it needs to make a deal. Uh other people in the administration say this shows Iran is still playing games and that they'll just try to run out the clock towards the midterms by coming back with incrementally quote unquote better offers. Um, I I'm I'm deeply concerned uh from talking to folks about the prospect of more military force used by the United States because of the capacity Iran seems to have, may have to hit other civilian and and and energy and uh health targets in Israel and in the Middle East in the the Gulf States.

[00:10:40]So again, I I've covered a lot of presidents and a lot of sticky wickets, a lot of pickles, a lot of problems, a lot of challenges. I've never seen one like this because he can't walk. People say, "Oh, just declare a victory and go home." The straight would still be closed. They can't they can't walk away.

[00:10:56]They can't say, "Well, we destroyed the nuclear program." Because they have to open >> it though. Can I ask this?

[00:11:02]>> Won't China step in to open it? Like I know it's not their problem they didn't create this, but like they they don't want the straight closed and they're friends. So don't they have a better a higher likelihood of getting the straight open than we do?

[00:11:14]>> Well, I think my just from observation and reporting in the short term, I think China's fine with the straight being closed because it embarrasses the United States. The president may say Mr. Xi is a great friend of his, but I think China loves seeing the United States uh brought to its knees to some extent by another another country. Um, and then and again, I I always want to make clear, I'm rooting for the United States. I hope the president figures this out. I hope the Iranian people get regime change, but we can't put our head in the sand and ignore what we see right in front of us.

[00:11:45]>> I think the Chinese can work it out.

[00:11:47]>> We're going to get regime change if we're not careful.

[00:11:49]>> I think the Chinese uh will figure out a way to get oil. They're already figuring out some ways to get it. The president's going to sell him some. and they could the Iranians could say we'll open the straight to Chinese oil but not to not to other other countries and oil going to China and and if the United States tries to blockade it uh there could be a confrontation.

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