TRUMP DECLARES “END OF THE WAR”; IRAN SAYS “DEAL STILL BEING REVIEWED": WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE DEAL

[00:00:00]So, um, I want to get to all of the headlines coming out of the Middle East and more with Professor Alone Burstein and Alone. Let's start with the breaking news. Jennifer Griffin is saying that this is uh happening uh as you and I come on air. So, let's just put this in the context of let's just put this in the necessary context if we can because people can read these headlines and and quickly surmise, well, does this mean that something major has happened in the Middle East? Does this have implications on the ceasefire or on the negotiations for a ceasefire extension? Um, what's the significance of Iran firing several drones at commercial vessels according to Jen Griffin?

[00:00:43]>> Thank you for having me, Austin. There's there's several ways to to understand this recent development in light of what has happened throughout the entire day.

[00:00:50]First of all, to put things into perspective of where we are talking about, you know, if we look at the map that's behind me, this is Iran. This is Thran is those are some of the main cities. And really the straight of Hormuz is this choke point over here.

[00:01:04]This is Car Island and this is the Persian or Arab Gulf depends who you ask. And this is the street of Hormuz.

[00:01:10]And really where all of this is happening and specifically where these attacks happening now is really in this area over here. It's right around this choke point right here where Iran controls this entire coastline. And it is extremely extremely difficult for the United States to actually secure the strait. Much as Trump repeatedly says that Iran's military is wiped out, which I remind everyone, he also said that the military was not even attacked as I said several weeks ago, but that the military is wiped out, that their navies wiped out, the air force is wiped out. This what we saw tonight, which by the way has been confirmed by Iran also, is an absolute classic example of why this has been so hard for the United States.

[00:01:51]Because it doesn't matter how many destroyers you put along here. It doesn't matter how many naval vessels of the United States you put along here.

[00:01:58]All it takes is firing one or two drones. They are fired from deep inland.

[00:02:03]They're fired from areas protected by mountain ridges over here. And they are enough to or damage a commercial vessel. At that point, commercial vessels will stop going through, insurance companies will stop allowing them to go through. And that's why no matter how much superiority the United States military really does have with regards to Iran, nonetheless, it is not possible to secure these straits against any and all attacks. So that's the first thing to take away from that is really that disparity between the might of the United States and you know as you're showing on the map the amount of weaponry the United States has there versus the fact that Iran can still demonstrate yes but we can still carry out this attack which is what they wanted to do now. So that's one facet of it. Another facet of it is this again really illustrates the disparity and difference between the way things are being presented in the United States and the way they're being presented and read and sent back in Iran. The United States over the last 48 hours has both said that it's going to escalate, carry out attacks, take over Car Island, continuing attacking Iranian interests.

[00:03:08]Also sent messages that it does not want to full escalation with Iran. And then all of a sudden, Trump comes back, according to NBC, three hours before the next attack was supposed to come and says, "Actually, we've reached a deal."

[00:03:20]In Iran, the reports are different. In Iran, first and foremost, it's been said by the official state media that no deal has been agreed to. The United States is trying to capitulate and come back to what Iran initially demanded. And then the FRS news site, which is one of the news sites associated with revolutionary guards, issued a statement several hours ago saying, just FYI, just clarifying, do not go through the straight of Hormuz. We haven't reached a deal yet.

[00:03:50]It's not open. And shortly before, I was looking at this when these initial reports came out. Shortly before they came out, there was a statement that was put out. Sorry, I'm going to read off the phone here. A statement that was put out by the Tasim News Agency. It's another one that's associated with the revolutionary guards that says, and there's a rough translation, the draft of the agreement has yet to be approved by the Iranian authorities. According to what we know, the United States has given up all of its demands. Obviously, a lot of propaganda statement about how the United States has failed, but then saying Iran has not accepted any of the last changes and the text is still being examined. Until then, you have to be careful in understanding what Trump is saying. So what Iran is putting out there is until it's a signed done deal, it's not done. And so as far as Iran's concerned, they impose a blockade on Hormuz that's still going on. This is not meant as anything else than business as usual, so to speak. So there's the military side of understanding this and the diplomatic side both coming together.

[00:04:46]>> So many of us here in the states, we woke up and we read that President Trump had said, quote, Iran would be hit very hard tonight. He said that on social media and then the president said the strikes were cancelled because the US and Iran made progress on talks shortly after that. I was looking at reporting from Axios and from Barack Ravid as he says here. It's interesting um that the president made the announcement and and again had this kind of sharp reversal because Ravid says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not have advanced notice and was caught by surprise when Trump released his statement. Alone, how much space is there between what Trump wants and what Netanyahu wants out of this deal?

[00:05:36]I think that was really revealed last week. We saw already the distance between the two of them when it came to characterizing the war. About two weeks in, at the beginning, United States and Israel were speaking in a very, very similar language. But about 2 weeks in, Israel was pushing more towards words like regime change, words like continue until things are toppled. The United States was talking more in terms of imposing a better deal, which is something Israel did not want. We also have to factor in the differences when it comes to both part in both countries we have elections in October November and in Israel Netanyahu is positioning himself as someone who is going to carry out a successful war whereas in the United States Trump is positioning himself as someone who is going to carry out a successful peace. So that is another big difference. Both them under massive pressure to present a different story coming into the elections. But specifically over the last week, we saw the extent to which both countries led by the two leaders are seeing things differently. You know, if we go back just a week and a half, it's important to remember after close to two months of the ceasefire, we all of a sudden had an eruption of Iranian fire on Israel, which came as a result of Israel carrying out attacks in Beirut, in Lebanon, which came as a result of his attacks. And Trump really limited Netanyahu's reaction. He really clipped his wings, said do not overestimate, do not retaliate too much. And after Israel did retaliate in Iran, said no more.

[00:07:05]More than that, I'll tell you just yesterday it was reported that Israel has been sending repeated messages to the United States asking to join in the attacks that are happening in Iran.

[00:07:17]Right? If we go back 24 hours, we weren't close to a deal. We had escalating attacks United States was carrying out. Israel was asking to participate and the United States said no. The Trump was very, very cautious because he did not want Israel to take these further than he wanted. He saw this seemingly as an attempt to apply more pressure on Iran in order to get to a deal not to return to full-on fighting. It's debatable whether Trump succeeded in that or failed in that.

[00:07:43]Right? Each side is telling a different story, but factually if Israel had participated might have carried out an escalatory attack that Trump did not want. And also just adding to that a third fact very very uncharacteristically over the last 24 to 48 hours and probably not by coincidence JD Vance vice president of the United States has been putting out statement after statement each time saying we have to be clear that the Israel's aims and the United States aims are not necessarily the same and using each time a bit of a different version saying we fight together however we worry about US interests we don't we're not serving ing Israel's interests, which again is not what was being said in March. Then it was being said both sides have the same ideas. So we've seen the disparity between the sides grow. I think it has a lot to do with the upcoming elections and how each one wants to present themselves. culminating in this past week where with Israel twice asking to escalate further in response to Iran and the United States twice saying absolutely not leading us to this right now with Trump putting out a statement when he was announcing that a deal has been reached saying among others and I was going to read it off that all the points have been agreed upon by the United States Israel Saudi Arabia right Qatar Turkey Pakistan Bahrain every country in the region according to reports in Israel and the United States Israel had no idea that that was coming Trump said that this has been agreed upon by Israel. Netanyao was in the middle of a cabinet meeting discussing a retaliation in Iran when they got news from the media that actually a deal has been reached. So that's the level by now of the disparity between the sides.

[00:09:14]>> So the million-dollar question, at least one of the million-dollar questions tonight is what's in this deal that could be on the cusp of being agreed to.

[00:09:22]Um, regular viewers know that a loan, um, sometimes, uh, even though we don't have an official deal announced yet, um, if you follow this stuff close enough, as a loan does, um, sometimes bits and pieces of these things leak out. And Alone has put together, um, a graphic that kind of gives us an understanding of what we know about this current deal and how it differs from past deals. So it kind of what what you have on your screen behind you here kind of gives us not only an idea of where things are headed, but also it highlights some of the things that have either been left out or simply are being ignored for now alone. If you could take it from here, um what do we know and what should we know about what's being worked on behind the scenes?

[00:10:09]>> So first of all, thank you for that introduction to this. Um, and so basically what I try to do every time there's some sort of deal announced is I immediately scramble to go to the networks that try to publicize leaks about these deals. And I will say that contrary to the past, this time there's been few there's been very few leaks about what is happening. Very few top ranking officials in different countries are publicizing different sides of the deal, which some people have said just means that it's not all worked out yet.

[00:10:41]And some people have said, well, that just means it's the same thing as it was in the past. The one network that did publicize something is Alrabia. That's a relatively reliable network from Saudi Arabia. And they said that this is going to be a memorandum of understanding like what was already discussed in the past.

[00:10:57]And really they said it focuses on a couple of very very direct and immediate points. Firstly again there is an end of the war on all fronts. It's not going to be just a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. It's also going to include the fighting between Israel and Lebanon. After that there'll be a 60-day negotiation period between the United States and Iran. And I will say that in previous leaks it said that there'll be some sort of monitoring mechanism for the ceasefire. In addition to that, I'll talk about the negotiations in a minute.

[00:11:30]In addition to that, the straits of Hormuz will be demined and opened within 30 days. And then according to Al Arabia, Iran is going to be allowed to immediately begin exporting oil and but other sanctions will gradually be eased later on. And finally that this is just rhetoric that Iran pledges to operate according to the international law and hormone United States also etc. So that's what has been reported in RBI what the deal includes. What I added however in the green column is from previous leaks what were the points of disagreements cuz we were very close to this deal already at the end of May what is in the blue column was agreed upon.

[00:12:12]Why did it fail then? It failed because of these disagreements in the green column. Firstly, there was the question, what is going to happen with the nuclear material? This whole thing started with a protest in Iran, but also a nuclear deal. What's going to happen? Back then, there was a big disparity. Iran said that they're willing to limit enriching uranium for 10 years. United States was demanding 15 to 20 years and the removal of all enriched materials. Here, I'll say, well, I'll add something about that in a minute. On the economic front, Iran was demanding that all sanctions be removed before the end of the 60-day period. The United States was saying no, it'll be a yearslong process. So again, we don't know what has actually been worked out or hasn't been worked out.

[00:12:55]Iran also demanded a compensation mechanism for the war and it was going to take that in the form of taxes on Hormuz. All these things have not been worked out. And lastly, what I want to emphasize in the initial leaks back from the end of May, there was also no mention of two things. Two out of the four war aims that the United States had set out. One was limitations on Iran's missile program. Never mentioned in any leak, it's just been forgotten. The other was support that Iran gives to its proxies or the Houthis or Hamas in a in a more roundabout way. Not mentioned at all.

[00:13:31]And one of the things that is important, I think, to note or at least gives us a glimpse of the fact that these things have actually not been worked out is in a statement that was actually made by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu earlier tonight after Trump said there's been a deal. It's the end of the war.

[00:13:46]Everything's going to look great. The stock market's going to go up. Oil is going to go down. Netanyahu puts out a statement and in it he praises Trump as every leader does. But then he also says that he al that he thanks Trump for his commitment to the fact that the final deal at the end of the negotiations will include removing enriched materials, dismantling the enrichment capabilities, um limiting the missile production. But the fact that Netanyahu is saying that's going to be in the final deal after negotiations happen, not now, is a pretty strong indication that whato was told is that's not part of this deal. So Iran was demanding that all nuclear talks happen after the ceasefires declared in these 60 days. The United States wanted it to happen before that the Iran already give a pledge before.

[00:14:34]At least from what is saying he thanks Trump for making sure that at the end of this there'll be some agreement that there'll be no nuclear program. It's implying that Iran may have gotten its way in that and there's no mention of the nuclear program now only later. Once again I'm emphasizing these are leaks.

[00:14:50]the speculations is not an official publication but that's what I have managed at least to gather about what this deal includes at least at this point.

[00:14:57]>> Does it feel like because because back when this started um the US was talking about Iran's nuclear program and they were also they were not shy about saying we also want to see the proxies be dealt with. We want to see the ballistic missile program being dealt with. Does it feel like from the White House's perspective over time those things have taken a backseat?

[00:15:21]>> Absolutely. I mean, look, if we look at the straight the straight of Hormuz, and that's really been Iran's trump card here. If we look at that, that was never included in the United States initial goals. Before the war happened on February 28th, the straight of our muse was open. It was open to traffic that was going to all sides. Iran has shown its capabilities. It's also broken the taboo of not firing at the oil production or gas production capabilities of other countries. Iran has really shown its strength here. The United States showed its military strength but Iran showed that it has the ability to fight back not militarily necessarily in direct combat but in other ways and that shifted the United States attention. Right? If we look at what the LRA report end of the war on all fronts negotiations and the straits of Hormuz being opened all that was the case before the war. That's not an achievement of the war until now. The straits were opened. There was no active fighting that was going on in any way as it is now in Lebanon. And there was free traffic going the straight of Hermuz. So the United States has shifted its position largely to coming back to where negotiations were before. That's not to say it's where they're going to end, right? The United States has also shown what many people were betting against that is willing to also enter into active fighting with Iran. So possibly Iran will remember that when we come into negotiations. But at this point, the United States has really shifted its attention away from the much larger ideas of regime change or possibly ballistic missile program or possible proxies or to a much more limited let's get a nuclear deal. Let's open the streets of Hormuz. Let's just all go back and say we managed to defeat the other one. That's what it seems to me at this point.

[00:16:54]>> Alone bursting with us tonight. Uh man, we have a lot to keep track of and watch for uh in the coming days as usual. Uh alone, how can people keep up with you, your content, and your courses?

[00:17:07]>> Look me up on the Israel Palestine Report. On YouTube is my main platform.

[00:17:10]We have lots and lots of activity all the time. Also, if you're interested in learning more about the region, check out my website alonebursting.com/webinars.

[00:17:18]We have a webinar each week. I will say this upcoming one should be a very fascinating one on Sunday. It's a free webinar on international laws of war and occupation because everyone always talks about what war crimes are, crime against humanity. We're going to try to dissect that and build that down. So, if anyone's interested, these are all free and otherwise, happy to see everyone on YouTube.

[00:17:37]>> Have a good night. Thanks.

[00:17:39]>> Thank you. The yoga net.