El Niño conditions increase upper-level winds and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which inhibits tropical storm formation, leading to below-average hurricane seasons with fewer named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes than the historical average.
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Thunderstorms packing heavy downpours could slam parts of South Florida as hurricane season gets undAdded:
And as we kick off hurricane season, let's take a look at the outlook because meteorologists both at Colorado State University as well as at NOAA are predicting a below average season. And as we take a look at the numbers, NOAA is forecasting eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, one to three major hurricanes. On average, we see 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The reason that meteorologists at NOAA and Colorado State are forecasting a below average season is because of El Nino expected to develop and strengthen and be moderate to strong by the peak of the season. And whenever we have El Nino, that increases those strong upper-level winds, that wind shear here over the tropical Atlantic, and that usually helps to inhibit or disrupt tropical formation.
At this time, the good news is no tropical systems are expected in the next seven days. However, looking at the names here for the 2026 season, Arthur is a first name on the list. And regardless of those forecasts and numbers, we all need to be ready cuz it only takes one. So, stay tuned to our special tonight at 7:00 p.m. Meantime, taking a live view outside right now and checking in on those rain chances, you'll notice that for today and the next few days, our rain chances are going to stay high. So, keep the umbrellas close by as each and every afternoon and evening will see scattered storms, but then dry air does move in as we head into the weekend. However, at this time, we're already dealing with some wet weather out there. So, if you're planning on heading out for lunch or you're going to be running any errands, take your umbrella with you.
Showers right now moving near Sable Palms Estates and West Cypress Creek.
Also, some rain beginning to push into Sweetwater. Everything is moving from west to east. Look at all this lightning. If you live in Long Key, try to stay inside. It is not safe with all these thunderstorms firing up here near Islamorada, Duck Key, as well as Key Colony Beach. Tons of lightning there.
Remember, if you hear thunder roar, you want to head indoors. And that wind out of the southwest west heating us up in a hurry. Already 90 in Miami, 89 in Fort Lauderdale, 88 in Kendall, and it feels like the hundreds already. So, make sure you stay hydrated and stay in the shade in the AC. There's that live view from our Key West camera. And as we show you what's next here, well, if you're going to be walking your dog, you may need to dodge a few showers and storms. Look at Finn ready for a walk. It's a little too toasty right now. I say wait until the evening, and you can send your photos to [email protected].
Now, there's record heat possible today as high soar to the low 90s and feels like temperatures will continue to climb. Could feel like 104 in Miami and 100 in Fort Lauderdale. Some rain will roll in to bring relief though as we head into the afternoon and evening.
Stay tuned to our meteorologist Nick Merianos. We have still have a little Saharan dust leading to some hazy conditions, and these rounds of afternoon storms will continue until we get drier air to move in by the end of the weekend. That's Saharan dust as well. Taking a look at that next weather 70 forecast, it is going to stay sizzling here to kick off the month of June as those highs continue in the 90s.
Feels like temperatures in the 100s.
Rain chances stay high through Thursday.
Drier will lower our rain chances to spotty showers for the weekend, and highs will not be as hot with the upper 80s.
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