Tropics Update: More Development More Likely Across The Atlantic! How Strong Will It Get?

[00:00:00]The remnants of Arthur are moving through the deep south with redevelopment increasingly likely.

[00:00:09]>> [music] >> What is up, weather enthusiasts? I'm your host, Pat's Path Predictor. Let's get right into the weather.

[00:00:24]All right, so here's the situation we have for you, ladies and gentlemen. We have a bit to go through with you guys today. Arthur made landfall yesterday as a tropical storm, became a post-tropical cyclone, and its remnants are currently moving through the deep south causing pretty catastrophic flash flooding at this current point in time. It is expected to reemerge off the Atlantic and it there is a good chance, based on some models, that this could actually redevelop. So, with that being said, we're going to be talking a lot about this as well as some other interesting areas in the Atlantic I want to go over. So, with that being said, we're going to go ahead and dive right into it.

[00:01:03]Starting off right now, we have our new area of interest in mainly in lieu of the remnants of Arthur that we have currently moving through the deep south. We're going to be paying attention to that, but let's go ahead and read this out for you guys.

[00:01:17]Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure, which is the remnants of Arthur, are located over the southeastern United States.

[00:01:24]Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development on Friday or Saturday as the system moves northeast at around 15 mph and emerges offshore of the east coast of the United States and into the western Atlantic Ocean. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with potential for widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across portions of the southeastern US during the next day or two. Additional information on the rainfall outlook can be found in the excessive rainfall outlooks, and uh you can also look at gale warnings in the high seas forecast. Okay. 10% chance of formation in the next 7 days and in the next 48 hours. So, that's what we're paying attention to at this current point in time. The system is expected to emerge off the coast of North Carolina before re-emerging off the Gulf Stream and potentially redeveloping over there. So, now that we've gotten the cliff notes taken care of, we're going to go ahead and dive right into it right now.

[00:02:25]So, we'll just go ahead and start off with this. We'll go ahead and start with the uh with the modeling and just jump right into it. Then, we'll get into the conditions as time continues to progress. But, here's the situation.

[00:02:35]This is where we have um our tropic our tropical remnants right here. This is the remnants of Arthur marching across much of the deep south. Very significant flooding has occurred across a lot of these regions already and we're going to want to pay attention to that as it slowly starts to move through parts of Alabama and Georgia and especially in the Carolinas. Areas that mind you have still not recovered fully from Hurricane Helene back in 2024. And those areas could potentially see some pretty heavy rainfall and some more flash flooding over there that we're going to kind of have to take very seriously. But, as time continues to progress, as we get to uh tomorrow morning into into tomorrow afternoon, it is expected to move across South Carolina and then North Carolina.

[00:03:20]Areas like Wil- like Wilmington, Columbia, South Carolina, and even areas like uh like Lumberton and Charlotte could see some pretty significant impacts from this before it moves onto the East Coast into the Outer Banks and then emerges by the time we get to tomorrow afternoon. Here is when it runs into the warmest waters. It merges into the Gulf Stream and potentially some signs of development do start to take place across a lot of the across the Gulf Stream before it starts to move into some cooler waters and out to sea over there as it potentially becomes extra tropical once again. So, that's what we're paying attention to or from the European model. Let's take a quick gander at our sheer and moisture forecast for you guys right here. But, before we do that, let's go ahead and take a quick gander at our precip potential because this is going to be a very heavy impact storm and based on what we've seen uh for right now, we're seeing pretty significant flash flooding potential across much of Alabama, Georgia, and in the Carolinas. I know we've seen isolated amounts of over 20 in of rainfall in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Remember, turn around, don't drown. That is a very important thing that we need to pay attention to.

[00:04:29]But, ultimately, you're looking at about 5 to 5 to 10 in of rain for parts of Alabama and the Atlanta area in Georgia before moving off to the Carolinas where about 2 to 4 in of rain are more probable over there. So, that's what we're looking at at least with the rainfall. Let's go ahead and show you with the wind shear.

[00:04:48]Here is our bulk 250 to 200 to 850 millibar wind shear. This is the situation that we got. So, it's kind of riding this trough over here in parts off parts of the Midwestern areas at this current point in time. What we're taking a quick gander at for you guys right here is this pocket of wind shear.

[00:05:06]Is it going to be enough to inhibit tropical development or can it stay far enough away for it to breathe a little bit more and develop? Because if you look a bit further to the east, you do see some shear over here uh at this current point. Although, I'm not 100% sure how much of that is actually shear and how much of it is actually wind from the tropical cyclone >> [snorts] >> cuz that definitely does produce that signal. We've seen many instances where tropical cyclones have this kind of shear signal with it, but it's actually the winds the tropical cyclone is producing. So, you'll have to look more synoptic scale. And it looks to me that at this current point in time, you're looking at the shear mainly being concentrated to the northwest of the of the low pressure system.

[00:05:49]If the thing is though, it's a little bit too close for comfort and the shear is a little bit of a wild card it seems for right now for tropical development.

[00:05:57]If that shear can just shift a little bit further up to the north then it'll give the system a lot more breathing room to really develop and it would help the trough angle really consolidate and really organize as it moves over the Gulf Stream before emerging over cooler waters and the shear starts to take over by the time we get to Saturday morning.

[00:06:16]So that's what we're looking at with our wind shear.

[00:06:20]Now talking about the dry air aspect of this, dry air is going to be kind of interesting. You have this huge moisture infusion that's bringing all this flash flooding across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas tomorrow before emerging off and you do see some dry air moving to the moving from the back of it to the west where there's a lot of shear. There's also a lot of potential dry air entrainment with this right here. So that's going to be a very potentially big inhibitor with this right here as long as the system doesn't mix it out.

[00:06:49]If it does mix it out and continues to fight back the way it has, then you might have a situation where the dry air doesn't become too big of an issue. But because this is kind of being associated along a frontal boundary, that becomes a lot more difficult until it gets further away from the Gulf Stream. So for [snorts] right now you have a pretty interesting situation developing. It just I would say what the next day or so, the next 24 hours are going to be very critical as to what may be happening down the line. And the reason I say the next 24 hours is because how much convection is this produce? How much rainfall is this going to dump? And how much is this front going to attach to it and how much is this front going to influence the dry air aspect of this and the shear as a matter of fact. So we'll have to watch out for it and we'll have to pay attention to it and we'll continue to keep you updated as time continues to progress. But now let's go ahead and shift over to other areas that I want to talk about. Let's go ahead and talk more conditions for across much of the Atlantic for today. I want to talk about water temperatures, ensemble runs, pretty much everything that we can go go ahead and cover and that's what we're going to be doing for the rest of this video.

[00:07:56]So, starting off with our ensemble runs, let's go ahead and pull up the European we mainly the main thing that we're paying attention to with the Euro at this current point in time. Let's go ahead and update the plot is pretty much updated. What I'm paying paying attention to is this right here. It's this swath of it I'm paying attention to.

[00:08:15]That's the remnants of Arthur. The European actually has a lot of power associated with it down the line. Let's go ahead and go out 24 hours and see what's going on with it moving through Alabama and Mississippi tonight. And then it starts moving out into the coast. Let's go ahead and zoom in on this right here. As it moves out and emerges off the Carolina coast, it starts to potentially get its act together and really potentially take advantage of that very warm water that we have along the Gulf Stream. So, we're going to want to pay attention to that. The main question is yes, there's a lot of power with this.

[00:08:49]Yes, there are more wind speeds with this. For example, I can go ahead and go out about 12 hours with this. For example, you're seeing a lot of 990s, even some 980s with this as well with max wind speeds over 60 knots in the 60-70 knot range, which would be strong tropical storm to weak hurricane strength. My main question here is how much of this is tropical and how much of this is barrel clinic. And basically, that's my that's my main question and that's another thing I'm paying attention to as well because is this going to be fully tropical or subtropical or is this going to be a mid-latitude cyclone that emerges off the [snorts] North Carolina coast and remains a mid-latitude cyclone. That's kind of another thing that I need to pay attention to because you look at this and you look at it on paper and you go, "Okay, yeah, this looks like a pretty powerful system that might be emerging."

[00:09:43]But, when you look at the finer details, there are a little There are a few things you need to watch out for. One of them is what type of storm is this going to be? Is this going to be Is this going to be a mid-latitude cyclone where it's attached to fronts and it uses bareclinic forcing to get its energy, or is this going to be more tropical or it's warm core and it can use the water temperatures to intensify? That is something that we're going to need to watch out for and we'll continue to keep you updated on for right now.

[00:10:13]But, zooming back out to the North Atlantic, we're also paying attention to a couple areas as well. I know the European has been kind of highlighting the main development region in a few small ensembles ensembles right here. But, we've seen a few ensembles popping up over here in parts of the main development region.

[00:10:30]This starts around June 23rd. I've also looked at the GFS and I'm going to show you those ensembles as well and I want to to go over them, because the GFS has been surprisingly consistent with this.

[00:10:41]And I know the GFS likes to be the GFS and it's not always the most accurate run, but I do want to entertain it for for a little bit to go, "Okay, what realistic shot does this actually have?"

[00:10:52]So, with the European low pressure systems over here remain pretty weak, not seeing too much tropical development out of this. Let's go ahead and go to 6 days out. Yeah, you're not seeing too much over here, but you are noticing a few ensembles picking up on maybe something near the intertropical convergence zone over over in this part of the main development region. So, that's kind of something we're watching. Let's go ahead and show you the GFS to kind of give some context to what I'm about to talk about.

[00:11:20]Here is your GFS run. Let's go ahead and go back to about 96 hours out. So, this is kind of what we got. So, the GFS has been showing more I've a little bit more trigger-happy, a little bit more excited about some ensembles popping up over here in this part of the Atlantic. So, what we got going on uh for right here is you have this you have a system potentially emerging off the ITCZ. This is just all on paper right here. This is without looking at the conditions. I'm just looking at this at face value, and then I'm diving into it. But, ultimately, you have it detaching from the ITCZ, potentially organizing and developing into into something right here, and then moving further to the west, potentially bring some impacts to areas like uh like like like Guyana submarine, areas like Venezuela and other parts of South America, even Trinidad and Tobago. This is what the GFS is showing right here, and it's expected to be moving through the region in the next few days or so. So, based on what we got for right here, mainly a very southern-based storm right here, actually a little bit further a little bit too far to the south from what I've seen previously. So, that's something that we're going to want to watch out for, and you definitely see this picking up a lot more as it heads towards areas like Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, and those areas, too. So, that's what the GFS is showing. It's a little trigger-happy, I know. What's but I do want to entertain this, and let's go ahead and take a quick gander at our conditions.

[00:12:50]So, starting off with our with water temperature, this is kind of what we're seeing with this. Water temperature definitely backs up for an area of tropical development just by itself.

[00:13:01]What we In the area it's going to be in in the area where the intertropical convergence zone is, it's in an area of about 28° C. You're seeing some 29s popping up more over here. That's about 82° F for those living in the United States and other areas that do not use the metric system. But, ultimately, you are seeing this warm water as well carrying further and further and further up to the north as the season progresses and as June continues to move uh march on. But, ultimately, where we're at right here, 28° to 29° C all the way until we get to areas in South America and the South Windward Islands as well. So, that's what the main water temperatures we're looking at at this current point in time. The water's really been heating up across this region over the last uh 2 weeks or so, and it's going to continue to do so as those as those trade winds from the zonal flow we've talked about in a few last week is really starts to kick in and bring those trade winds down. Less upwelling equals more water warmth. So, that's what we're looking at for water temperatures. Taking a quick gander at our ocean heat content, OHC is definitely favorable to for some sort of development. You're looking at about 50 to 75 OHC all the way until we get to South America and the Windward Islands as well.

[00:14:22]Uh so, that's what we got uh for right here. So, 50 to to 75 OHC, excuse me, is definitely conducive for some sort of development and some sort of strength of strengthening as well. Just on paper uh right here. There's obviously other factors. If you look at those two factors alone, definitely supports tropical development, but we need to look at the wind shear and the dry air because those are our two main areas that we need to pay attention to.

[00:14:51]Starting off Atlantic view, let's go ahead and go to Let's go ahead and go to our shear for you guys right here.

[00:14:58]Taking a quick gander at that. Wind shear definitely is interesting for sure. You're looking at this June 19th, that shear we talked about yesterday moves further up to the north and actually becomes a bit more We have a ridge pattern starting to build up over here that kind of weakens the wind shear not just in parts of the western main development region, but also in the Caribbean temporarily as well. And this would actually be an area by the time we get to 4 days out, you actually have a pretty good pocket of very low wind shear across this region right here.

[00:15:30]Definitely for sure that you're going to an area what you're going to want to pay attention to. Water temperatures look good and now the shear actually looks good for some sort of development in this region over here. A pretty significant shear pocket has really developed over the last few days and it's going to continue to persist as time continues to progress. However, as we get to June 23rd, June 24th, you dart start seeing the shear starting to reemerge and you start seeing the Caribbean graveyard look look back again. So, by the time it does theoretically develop and move into the Caribbean, it's going to get the shear is going to tear it apart completely.

[00:16:07]So, it's kind of time frame for development does seem a bit limited over here for late June. And I would say once it moves west of South Venezuela or the Windward Islands theoretically, then you would have a situation where it just runs into that shear and just dissipates over the water because of that Caribbean graveyard look right here. But as we progress further along, you do start seeing a little bit more shear starting to impact much of the MDR as the graveyard starts to take more advantage and starts to take up a up a little bit more of a zonal flow right here compared to a more troughy and ridgy flow. A zonal flow is basically you have all this wind shear and it's not gaining any latitude or longitude. A trough and ridge goes up and down up and down up and down latitudinally. So, that's kind of what why refer to it as such. So, that's your wind shear right here. You definitely have a little bit of an opening for [snorts] some tropical development in this region. The question is, what's the dry air going to be at this point?

[00:17:09]And the dry air, let's go ahead ahead and go back to this. Let's go ahead and move out. Let's say about the next 24 hours, you definitely start seeing the ITCZ producing more uh uh more convection and more moisture in the region. And as we get to 72 hours out, you do have a bit of a dry slot over in this part of the main development region. The central MDR does get overcome by dry air, but you do start seeing more moisture starting to emerge and pop over parts of the uh uh parts of the MDR as well. And you're also noticing this moisture pocket starting to emerge over here in the midst of this dry air. And if this would likely be where this this tropical development would take place in this moisture pocket. And if that moisture pocket stays and it holds steady, if it detaches from the ITCZ, then you might have a situation where okay, it's surrounded by dry air, but there's not really any wind shear that's going to be inhibiting it, and that might lead for uh for some action happening. But based on what I'm seeing with the European, that moisture pocket actually holds relatively strong all the way through, uh which I do find kind of curious right here. It actually holds pretty uh closely, although there is dry air kind of surrounding it. If convection can be produced and it can take advantage of that of that wind low wind shear in this part of the MDR, then you're going to have a situation where things get a little bit interesting uh down the line. Am I saying that tropical development is going to happen right now? Not necessarily. There are some inhibiting uh conditions that go against it, but is it possible? I would say yes, theoretically, as long as the wind shear patterns remain consistent like we've shown with the European, and as long as that dry air stays away from that moisture pocket. Those are two things that we need to watch, and this is kind of one of those contingency developments areas that we're going to want to watch out for and pay attention to. But with that being said, we're going to continue to keep you updated on this as well as the remnants of Arthur as [snorts] it moves through parts of the southeastern United States, and of a bunch of other weather that might be going on here on the Pat's Path Predictor channel. But with that being said, we are going to go ahead and close this video out right here. I really hope you guys enjoyed it. Be sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel if you are new. The goal as always is to get more people engaged with weather. We are getting closer and closer to 15,000 subscribers. It would mean the world to me if we could get to that milestone and I'd be very much appreciated if you hit that subscribe button once again. The goal as always, get more people engaged with weather. If you'd like to help out, hang out, or ask us some questions, feel free to join the Storms United Discord server. Ethan and I are actually starting a live show either this week or next week where we kind of go over some fun weather stuff as well and then it'll be on Storms United. So, feel free to have some fun and see some action-packed behind-the-scenes things. With that being said, have a wonderful day, guys.

[00:19:59]Stay safe.