The Calm Before Something INTENSE Arrives...

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]It's Monday, May 11th, 2026. It's the 131st day of the year, and we've got a lot to talk about. A massive heat dome is setting up for next week that could shatter records across the central US.

[00:00:12]But first, we're going to have a couple rounds of storms, of course, and honestly, there's a lot of stuff going on. So, let's get right into it. Before we go too far out in the future, I really want to talk about what happened a few days ago during our last live stream because we haven't got to catch up yet. On May 6th, parts of Mississippi got hit pretty hard. As of right now, the National Weather Service has confirmed at least seven to nine tornadoes, and two of those were rated EF3. One had winds over 137 mph, and that's a violent, destructive tornado.

[00:00:42]Not some trees knocked over and stuff, but any homes that were in the path were absolutely damaged. And we did get some communities completely torn up and people's lives were changed in just a few minutes. The Storm Prediction Center had around a 100 reports come in from this storm system, including tornado reports, hail reports, and damaging wind reports. There were six PDS tornado warnings and four tornado emergencies.

[00:01:05]And that alone tells you how dangerous this setup became. At least 20 people were injured and thankfully no fatalities have been confirmed, but hundreds of homes were damaged. And the thing is, a lot of this happened in rural areas. We're talking about places that can get overlooked after a disaster like this. Not because the damage isn't bad, but because there aren't as many cameras pointed at it. And that's why we're trying to help. Because of you guys, we've already raised $20,000 for the Y'all Squad, which is incredible.

[00:01:34]But I think we need to keep on going.

[00:01:35]The Y'all Squad is going to go down there to help these families directly.

[00:01:38]So, go to the yall squad.org and donate to our nonprofit organization if you want to help out. Let's try to push this over $50,000 so we can help as many people as possible. And now let's start talking about the future weather. And the good news is is we're in a little bit of a quiet stretch here. But quiet doesn't necessarily mean safe for everyone. Especially if you live in eastern Montana or western North Dakota.

[00:02:00]The severe storms might be gone. But your threat this week is fire. And it's escalating pretty fast. We've actually got a fire weather watch in effect today and tomorrow for places like Dickinson and Williston. Anyone along or north of the I94 area or Highway 12 corridors, you guys are in the bullseye because you've got a cold front pushing down winds of 25 to 35 mph throughout the region, gusting up to 45 mph. And the relative humidity is cratering down to like 15%. And the grass out here is the driest it's been in a very, very long time. We're talking about 97th percentile for fuel dryness. Uh the ground is absolutely primed to ignite right now. So here's what's making me more nervous about this. We're actually seeing a signal for isolated highbased thunderstorms to pop off this afternoon, maybe even tomorrow as well. And you might think, well, Ryan, isn't that good? Won't it put out the fires or make the ground a little bit wet? Actually, no. These storms are not going to drop a meaningful amount of rain at all. But they could throw dry lightning bolts around on top of 60 mph wind gusts in every direction, making any existing fire uh completely unpredictable. And of course, it could spark new fires. This is a pretty wild situation up here. So outdoor burning is absolutely out of the question. If Mimal is going down the road and flicks a cigarette out the window, it could literally end an entire neighborhood. So let's not be doing that. Mima, the severe storms are on pause, but if you're in the Dakotas or eastern Montana, your weather threat this week is really going to be focused on these winds and dryness. Don't let your guard down. And of course, we spent a lot of this video talking about bad weather. But let me tell you about some good stuff as well. If you live anywhere near St. Louis, De Moines, Springfield, Missouri, or Cedar Rapids, Thursday is looking to be a pretty good day. In fact, it might be one of the best spring days you'll see all year. We're talking specifically from around 6:00 a.m. to 3 or 4:00 p.m. It's going to be flawless.

[00:03:57]A solid block of perfect outdoor time.

[00:03:59]We're going to have a massive area of high pressure that's starting to sink over the region. That's going to push cloud cover out of the way for most of the day. But as the sun gets the highest in the sky, a little bit of clouds are going to come in actually reducing the heat a little bit and making it a little bit more comfortable. We're also looking at uh due points in the 50s and low 60s, making it feel pretty dry out there. And there's really like a 0% chance of rain.

[00:04:24]So morning lows are going to be dropping down into the 40s. So that's going to be crisp and refreshing. But the afternoon highs could peak around 75 to maybe close to 80°. That's kind of the Goldilock zone for human comfort, especially whenever the due points are in the 50s or even up there in the lower 60s. It can feel pretty good above 75.

[00:04:43]We're going to have about 22% cloud cover around noon. That's going to increase as the day goes on, but 0% chance of rain. So, if you are in the surrounding plains, you're going to have a nice day, but we're going to have slightly stronger wind gusts a little bit farther to the east. We're going to have uh you know, some more oppressive heat down to the south and west. So, you know, you guys don't get included on the perfect weather outlook here. But, uh there is one small caveat. You're in the beautiful and perfect zone. The clear skies are going to push the UV index up near 8. So, slap on that sun protection, however you want to do that, if you're going to be out there for hours and enjoy it while it lasts, okay? Because this is the Midwest and uh it's going to get breezy again. It's going to get cloudy again. It's going to get moist again. And Lord knows at some point we're going to have a big cold blast or tornado come through. So, enjoy the nice weather while it lasts. And again, we we go from talking about a beautiful Thursday to a pretty hectic Saturday because the atmosphere is going to be waking back up with a vengeance, especially down here in Oklahoma City, Lton, and Witchah. You guys are in the crosshairs for uh some severe weather and the signal is actually starting to get stronger. The Storm Prediction Center has already put a 15% risk area from central Oklahoma up through southern Kansas targeting millions of people. And the window is uh kind of around the 3:00 p.m. to 900 p.m.

[00:05:58]Saturday time frame. Okay, that's right after the peak heating during the maximum instability window and and that's pretty much what's driving this on top of the upper atmosphere flipping to a strong southwest flow by late this week. This is a pretty classic setup for pumping moisture and energy into the southern plains. Uh anytime you get a wave of energy that goes and injects out of the Rockies and collides with this, uh it can make a pretty wide corridor of instability and that can pull up over the plains and uh that's pretty much what's happening here. And that's going to lead to scattered explosive thunderstorms. Right now, it looks to me like the primary threats are probably going to be large hail, the kind that crack siding and craters rooftops. Plus, we're going to have damaging wind gusts capable of tearing limbs off mature trees and knocking the power out. But an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Of course, it's a little bit far out, so I don't want to talk too much about the specific threats, but hail and wind are almost certainly going to be on the table here. A lot of people are probably going to be asking about the Dallas Fort Worth area. The highest risk right now is pretty much north of you. Um, but have a backup plan in place just in case this shifts south. It's six days out, so this is going to shift around a little bit. And I actually think it's probably going to expand. So, you're not completely out of the woods just yet.

[00:07:10]Now, I'm actually more confident in this threat than I was yesterday. I was about to make a video yesterday, but stuff came up uh with Mother's Day and you know, stuff like that, and I wasn't really going to mention this much, but models are coming into better agreement now, but uh the the details are still going to shift around. Just know that if you're driving up the I35 corridor this weekend, you could run into walls of rain with zero visibility uh conditions.

[00:07:33]If I was you, I would have Weatherwise running on my phone because you're going to get real-time radar and lightning detection, and it's going to let you see exactly where the heaviest cores are sitting, so you can uh kind of navigate better. We've got a navigation function now in the Weatherwise app, which is pretty plum wild. And speaking of the Weatherwise app, let's shout out today's awesome sponsor, Weatherwise, the best radar app I've ever used. Weatherwise is a freeto download state-of-the-art ad-free weather radar app on iOS, Android, and in your web browser. You get super high-res radar, lightning alerts, and storm tracks with zero pop-up junk in your way. And lately, Weatherwise has been leveling it up in a big way. You can now watch live stormchasers right on the map, including Brandon Copic, Jaden Papenheim, Cory Girkin, and much more out there in real time. They've also added full-blown weather models inside weatherwise. We've got the HRR, the GFS, GraphCast, NAM, you name it, it's on there. And for my plus members, this is where it gets crazy. In y'all mode, you can now see the weather intensity score updating live right there in your Radar app. And during my live streams, you can now open the Weatherwise app and actually share your location with me, so I can see where everybody's watching and which storms to focus on. Free users can ping their location and Plus and Pro members can show up with a special icon and message so you stand out when the storms are hitting home. Plus still gives you the 3D globe, 3D radar tilt, radar smoothing, and split view so you can watch multiple maps at once. But Weatherwise Pro cranks it up even more with realtime 3D crosssections, triple and quad view, reflectivity X, max reflectivity, and fast scan. These are the kinds of tools that meteorologists and emergency managers use. and now you can have them in your pocket. The core Weatherwise experience is still free and it will always be free, but if you want the ProLevel toys, that's where you upgrade to Plus and Pro inside the Weatherwise app. And if for some reason you don't have the Weatherwise app yet, scan this QR code here or go to weatherwise.app. There's a link in the top of the description or you can just search up Weatherwise in the iOS or Android store. It's free. It's incredibly powerful and it's built by people who know about weather for people who actually care about the weather.

[00:09:53]Now, let's get back into the forecast.

[00:09:55]And the pattern doesn't just go back to quiet after Saturday. Remember that massive heat dome baking southwest I told you about 7 days ago in the last video? Well, there's a pretty strong signal that that's going to be shifting to the east and it's completely going to flip our pattern for the rest of the country. Again, if you're going to EDC in Las Vegas this weekend, you're walking around in the core of this dangerous heat. Uh, hydration is really not negotiable out there. But soon after that, the heat's going to start moving east. And before it reaches the east coast, it's going to get into western Oklahoma and Texas where we're looking at upper 90s, possibly 100° temperatures by the weekend into early next week. And then as we go deeper into next week, this ridge is going to show signs of parking itself over the Mississippi Valley all the way over to the Mid-Atlantic, potentially sending temperatures into the 90s across Kentucky, Virginia, and even the Carolinas. If this sets up as modeled, this will be some of the warmest temperatures of the year so far. And overnight lows aren't even going to get that low. So, uh, this is definitely going to be an interesting time. Make sure you got your air conditioners ready. Okay, this is time. I'm calling out the warning now. AC warning. Get them repaired. Get them going. Get them ready to go through the night because, uh, we got a heat wave coming, son. It's not going to be, you know, historic or anything, but it it's it's going to be a lot warmer than what it has been. It's still several days out, but the trend is real. We might skip right past the rest of spring and dive head first into the oppressive heat of summer. And y'all, that's pretty much all the weather talk I have for you today. I do want to encourage you to go over to the Yawbot channel. We've been working hard on this. We now have our first regional stream. Y'all is the national 247 stream, but now there is a Kentucky, Tennessee only version. Okay? It's on 24/7 and it only talks about Kentucky and Tennessee. So, if you don't care about what's going on in California and you live in Tennessee, this is the one for you. Now, we're going to do this for other states as well. If you want your state to be next, go to ryanhall.com/yallbot.

[00:11:52]And on there, you can actually click once per day and uh add a vote for your state. And we're going to be looking at that over the next week or so, and we're going to determine what our next state or group of states is that we're going to dedicate a 247 Yawbot to. Also, feel free to leave comments about what you wish y'all did. I leave ybot on all the time on all my screens everywhere. I love it. It's great for me, but I want to hear from you. So yeah, go to ryanhal.com/ybot and help us out over there. And until next time, thank you for watching. Don't be scared. Be prepared. Goodbye.